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Prior vs. Mauer

In June 2001, the forever-frugal Minnesota Twins had the first overall pick in the amateur draft. The pick came down to USC right-hander Mark Prior, viewed by some as the best college pitcher ever, and high school catcher Joe Mauer, a native of St. Paul with immense potential. As talented as Mauer was, one could argue there was more risk in the high school player. The Twins, of course, went the less-expensive route that had a local angle and Prior was drafted by the Cubs second overall. Prior debuted less than a year later, posting a 3.32 ERA with just 98 hits and 38 walks allowed and 147 strikeouts in 116.2 innings. A year later in 2003, at age 22, Prior went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA in 30 starts and the Cubs reached the postseason as the National League Central champs. When the postseason ended with Florida upsetting the Yankees in the World Series, only four hurlers had thrown more 2003 pitches than Prior. Teammate Kerry Wood was one of them, but no one in the top 40 was as young as Prior. Though it's impossible to point to the heavy workload of 2003 as the cause or even a contributing factor, both Wood and Prior have suffered an assortment of injuries since then. Prior has won just 17 games since winning 18 in 2003, and he's been out with injuries to his right Achilles, right elbow and right shoulder. Mauer didn't reach the majors until 2004, and he missed most of that season following knee surgery that might have threatened his career behind the plate. In 2006, however, Mauer is batting a major league-best .371 and showing more power at age 23. He also leads all big leaguers with a .402 average on the road. Just as it was too soon to say the Cubs came out better with Prior after the 2003 campaign, it's probably too early to say the Twins have won the battle of first-rounders. After all, Prior is just 25 years old. But does his injury history suggest a compromised career? Does Mauer's first two months in 2006 mean he's a batting title waiting to happen? Which organization might win or is better positioned to win the battle of Prior vs. Mauer?

Comments

It's striking how poorly the Class of 2001 has turned out. Only Mark Teixeira, Mauer, and Prior have contributed much five years later. The other guys in the top 10 were Van Benschoten, Chris Burke, Brazelton, Gavin Floyd, Josh Karp, Chris Smith, and Colt Griffin.
Prior wasn't an arm operation waiting to happen, like Kerry Wood. But given his homeboy status and reduced signing bonus, it looks like the Twins did the right thing for the wrong reasons in taking Mauer. Which is better than their usual pattern of doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

The other aspect of Mauer is that he plays an historically defensive position. I'm not that familiar with his fielding and throwing - any opinions?

Mauer is athletic and will be an above-average catcher. As of June 12, only five big league regulars behind the plate have better caught-stealing percentages than Mauer.

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