An Overreaction to the Big Contracts Landed by Pitchers?
A few weeks ago, about all White Sox fans might have expected from GM Ken Williams was a trade involving one starting pitcher leaving Chicago to fill a hole in the lineup, which would make room for Brandon McCarthy in the rotation. The White Sox have changed their game plan, according to Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers, in reaction to the mind-numbing salaries handed out to suspect pitching in recent days. How do you explain a five-year, $55 million deal for Gil Meche? Or even the four-year, $40 million contract for Ted Lilly and his 59-58 record in eight big league seasons. The White Sox arguably had the best rotation in the game heading into 2007, but Rogers writes that they now are looking at cashing in on those starters rather than face the cost of high-priced long-term deals to keep them down the road. Freddy Garcia is gone, as was widely speculated, but now Jon Garland is on the block as the White Sox look to acquire young, talented but inexpensive pitchers who could take over those rotation spots in the next couple of years. The Sox have a history of not extending long-term deals to pitchers, and this new approach seems to be owner Jerry Reinsdorf (over)reacting in "vintage Reinsdorfian my-way-or-the-highway logic," as Rogers puts it. Perhaps Chicago is ahead of the curve and is responding in a way that would serve more teams well before they're stuck paying for a high-dollar free agent or two to fill rotation spots. On the other hand, the Sox have Garland, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez under their control through 2008. Only Buehrle, coming off a bad year, can leave after the upcoming season. It's not an overly costly rotation, so why not make a 2007 run with it while Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede are still under contract and Jim Thome isn't on the decline. If the Sox crash and burn in 2007, bailing on members of the rotation at the trade deadline still could bring top pitching prospects. This rotation, skillfully and patiently built over a number of years, should get a chance to lead the team to its third-straight 90-win season. Another odd aspect of the Sox's new strategy is that right now, with marginal starting pitchers landing stunning contracts, one of the relative bargains in their rotation might land a dependable outfielder or leadoff hitter. If the Sox believe they must react to what's going on in the market, cash in for a sure thing that would counter the loss of starting pitching. The Sox have some impressive, young pitching talent, and the chance to acquire more will always present itself if they choose to bail on the entire rotation. A pitcher dealt this winter should have landed a regular who fills a key hole. For now, with Garcia dealt for young arms, they shouldn't be so quick to ship Garland to Houston or anywhere else.
Comments
Are we maybe approaching a tipping point in the salary structure, where blue-chip pitchers command a higher salary than blue-chip players? A hitter only gets about 13% of his team's at-bats, but a pitcher with 230 IP is pitching 16% of his team's innings.
Posted by: We All Shine On | December 8, 2006 8:12 PM
I'm going to miss Freddy Garcia going out there every 5 days and knowing he is going to keep us in the ballgame. Will Brandon McCarthy? We hope so. But can we expect him - in '07 - to lead the team like Garcia did in Innings Pitched (216.3) and Opponents OBP (.309 - which ranked 7th in the AL)? McCarthy's numbers actually matched Freddy's pretty closely in 2006, but he doesn't have 8 years of the experience that Garcia has. So, why the need to trade him? If you want to win in 2007, you only do this deal if you think McCarthy can do better than Garcia did and bring in someone to replace McCarthy's numbers late in games. Fine. We'll see if they plan on having Floyd come out of the bullpen then or if they'll go get another arm, but you can't tell me that the Sox did not just lose depth at starting pitching for 2007. So... now all it takes is one injury to the five starters to have a potential serious problem. It wasn't long ago that we cringed when AAA pitcher after AAA pitcher trudged to the mound on those 5th days. More often than not, the Sox lost. I just like the idea of having six quality starters, period. Is it always an option? Heck, no. It just means you, Kenny, are on a big time roll. Garcia worked out. Contreras worked out. Vazquez has worked out nicely (really good stats - unnecessary whipping boy by a lot this season). Jenks and Thornton are championship caliber additions. It is nice and efficient to trade from surplus. But, some times you have to go with what you have... especially when what you have is good enough to win it all. We knew what we'd get from Garcia. As a fan of winning now, I am disappointed. My take long term... If Buehrle is going to go after 2007, then Gio Gonzalez does have the minor league track record to really be a strong candidate to replace him in the rotation. That might be pushing things a little too fast, so 2009 might be more like it. Gavin Floyd, who will be 24 in January, does have some outstanding minor league campaigns - although just not recently. He had great years in 2002-04 from the Sally league through AA. Don Cooper has shown he can harness big time talent that was discarded elsewhere (Contreras, Jenks). I can see where this makes sense for the future. But, I just don't buy how this trade makes the Sox better in 2007. Garcia in a contract year AND in the NL... if his ERA is in the 4.00's at all, it will be very disappointing for the Phillies.
Posted by: John Strougal | December 8, 2006 10:30 PM
Floyd may be ready to step in as early as 2008, when Buehrle's contract ends. He's added a sinker in recent seasons, and GM Ken Williams was impressed with the pitch in the Arizona Fall League. The sinker is a good fit for the White Sox's home park, and Floyd's has more movement than his four-seam fastball. His mechanics and command need more work, but another year in the minors might be all that's needed before he's ready to help the White Sox. I'm still surprised the Sox didn't trade a pitcher to get an everyday outfielder. Aaron Rowand had been mentioned as a possible pickup in a Freddy Garcia deal. Brian Anderson should get a chance to stick in center, but Rowand would be an option there as well as in left, where Scott Podsednik wasn't the same player he was in 2005 last summer.
Posted by: TH | December 9, 2006 12:04 AM