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Is Daisuke Matsuzaka the Real Deal?

The Boston Red Sox are betting that Daisuke Matsuzaka, a premier Japanese pitcher who was signed over the offseason, will be worth the $103 million investment. With his terrific stuff, command and makeup, the 26-year-old right-hander is likely to enjoy success immediately in the major leagues, though it's open to debate how good he will be for the Red Sox.

It's possible Matsuzaka will become one of the stars of the game in North America. Yet, there's always some doubt about any player making the jump to a new major league in an unfamiliar culture. Arguably Matsuzaka is the most gifted pitcher to join a big league club from an overseas league, but those who are less certain about him may point to Hideo Nomo, who worked with a typically quirky delivery that is common in Japan, or Cuban Rolando Arrojo. Both featured impressive pitch movement, but in time, hitters adjusted to their stuff and unusual pitching motions and enjoyed success against them. Then there's Hideki Irabu, who came over highly regarded but never established himself here.

According to scouting reports, including those in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Matsuzaka is a good bet to be effective thanks to an arsenal of up to seven pitches, all of which he commands well. His diving forkball is the crown jewel, notes Baseball America's Jim Callis, though Matsuzaka also attacks hitters with a rising, four-seam fastball and a two-seam sinker, plus a curve, slider and a changeup that moves in on right-handed hitters like a screwball.

Matsuzaka often worked in a six-man rotation in Japan, which raises some minor concerns about his workload here. The Red Sox could use six men during the second half, when two rehabbing hurlers, Matt Clement and Jon Lester, become options alongside Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and Jon Papelbon. That seems to be a very minor concern -- enough so that Boston was among a number of teams that thought investing in Matsuzaka was a better option than paying for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.

With his stuff and command, Matsuzaka looks like a solid, long-term investment. Perhaps he'll reverse the tendency of pitchers such as Nomo and Arrojo, who came over and had immediate success before stumbling. After all, there's a long history of pitchers who struggled in their first season after signing a multiyear, high-dollar contract with a new club. That would seem to be a psychological issue in which the high-profile acquisition feels pressure to be an instant success or the staff ace. Although a pitcher new to a league often has the immediate advantage against hitters, it isn't out of the question that Matsuzaka will feel the need to do too much right away. It's more likely, however, that he will be successful with a chance to be even better as he reaches his prime.

Comments

Thom, nice post.

Rob Neyer had an interested piece on how Matsuzaka would fair here in the States about a month ago.

Given what I've seen of Matsuzaka's composure during press conferences, I wouldn't be surprised if he does well in 2007.

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