OK, repeating as World Series champions is almost never done anymore. Only the Blue Jays (1992-93) and Yankees (1998-99) have won back-to-back titles in the last 25 years. History, though, isn't going to convince the Cardinals that they won't be playing in October.

What may determine the fate of the 2007 Cardinals is the team's rebuilt pitching rotation. Three of the last four World Series participants -- Houston and Chicago (tied with the Angels) in 2005 and Detroit last season -- ranked at the top of their league in starter ERA during their pennant-winning seasons. That's not a trend that has been hard and fast over the last decade, but obviously the pitchers who throw the most innings for a team are critical to its success.

The changes in St. Louis' starting five are significant. Chris Carpenter will anchor the rotation once again, but dependable Jeff Suppan is off to Milwaukee and postseason surprise Jeff Weaver has signed with Seattle. Who follows Carpenter, the Opening Day starter, will be determined in spring training.

One of the favorites to join the retooled rotation is veteran Kip Wells, and closer-turned-starter Adam Wainwright and World Series Game 1 hero Anthony Reyes have a leg up on the other candidates. The 25-year-old Reyes was at his best in September during an up-and-down rookie year, then pitched brilliantly against the Tigers. He and fellow youngsters Brad Thompson and Chris Narveson, along with veteran Ryan Franklin and setup man Braden Looper, are in the mix for jobs behind Carpenter.

What to expect from Wainwright is uncertain. Reyes and Thompson are solid prospects who could emerge as dependable starters in 2007, but it's hard to foresee the Cardinals' rotation ranking among the best this summer. St. Louis may need a lot of help from a bullpen that wouldn't be the same if Jason Isringhausen doesn't rebound well from hip surgery in September. If he isn't ready to go in April, Wainwright could end up back in the bullpen.

So, which teams may be playing deep into October, based on an improved rotation since the end of the 2006 campaign? Detroit didn't make changes, but all of the young guys are a year older in 2007. They could improve, though it's also possible they may endure some growing pains and not be quite as successful as they were during Detroit's dream season.

Maybe Boston will be positioned for another postseason run after adding premier Japanese starter Daisuke Matsuzaka over the winter. The Red Sox still have Curt Schilling, and it's conceivable Josh Beckett will be better the second time around and closer Jonathan Papelbon will be as successful in the rotation as he was in the ninth inning in 2006. Boston also has Tim Wakefield and Matt Clement, who is coming off shoulder surgery.

What about Philadelphia? The Phillies have six solid starters in trade acquisition Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer and Jon Lieber. Trading Lieber has been a possibility all winter, but keeping him around gives the Phillies a decent option if top prospect Hamels struggles in the spring.

Maybe the White Sox will work themselves back into the postseason mix. They have traded Garcia to Philadelphia and the highly regarded Brandon McCarthy to Texas, but still have Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez. A breakout season from Vazquez is still a possibility, and the White Sox have some terrific young talent to fill their No. 5 slot. They would look even better going into 2007 if McCarthy was still there.

Two West Division teams in the National League also look better because of veteran acquisitions. The Dodgers added ace Jason Schmidt to give them a terrific top three in Schmidt, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe. Randy Wolf, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be a pleasant surprise in 2007, and the Dodgers have promising options in Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo for the No. 5 spot. The Padres picked up Greg Maddux from the Dodgers, who should be an asset in a solid rotation with David Wells, Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Clay Hensley.

The success of the young starters in Detroit last season suggests a number of teams built around promising young pitching could find their way into playoff contention if things fall into place. That would apply to the A's, Marlins, Angels, Indians and Brewers, though their rotations don't look as strong as those of the Red Sox, Phillies and White Sox at this juncture. That point of view could change dramatically over the next eight months.