It’s not too early to start a death watch for the first big league manager likely to bite the dust in 2007. It could be the guy who seemed to be on borrowed time a year ago, but managed to survive when his team surged down the stretch and nearly made the playoffs.

The Phillies are off to a poor start for the third straight season since Charlie Manuel replaced Larry Bowa as the manager after the 2004 season. They dropped three of Manuel’s first four games as the skipper in 2005, and were 21-26 when play began on May 25 that season. The Phillies went 67-48 the rest of the way, but fell a game shy of Houston in the chase for the NL wild-card berth. Last season they opened 1-6, as they have in 2007, and were 9-14 late in April. They were 76-63 after a rough opening month and finished three games out of the wild-card spot.

Another frustrating element of the Manuel years has been a three-week crash that kicks off in June. In 2005, Philadelphia endured a 5-14 skid from June 28 through July 8. There was a 3-15 slide a year ago, which began on June 11 and ran through the first day of July. The Phillies have been a solid second-half team, but haven’t been able to overcome the inconsistent stretches that have plagued them early in the season.

It’s been déjà vu all over again so far this spring. Opening Day seemed to set the tone. The Phils had a 3-2 lead going into the eighth, but Atlanta shortstop Edgar Renteria hit a home run in the top half of the inning and delivered a two-run shot in the 11th for a 5-3 Braves victory. The second game of the season didn’t go much better, as Philadelphia surrendered a 2-0 lead in the ninth and lost 3-2 in 11 innings to the Braves.

The Phils are now 3-8, and only the 3-9 Nationals have a worse record in the league. Will Manuel even get a chance to risk another June swoon? Keep in mind that Manuel was already in place when the Phillies turned GM duties over to Pat Gillick in November 2005. Gillick has to have an itch to hire his own manager.

The Phillies host the Mets on Monday and Tuesday, big games in April if such things exist. The Mets took two of three from the Phils at Shea Stadium last week, and it can’t help the Phillies’ pennant chances if they struggle against the Mets all season. Losing has a way of getting out of control.

If the Phils drop both games at home against New York and can’t seem to break their funk in the nation’s capital against the lowly Nats on Wednesday and Thursday, does that itch become agonizing?