What's Happened to the World Series Champion Cardinals?
The World Series champion Cardinals are off to a mediocre 14-18 start, and the tendency might be to point the finger at the rebuilt starting rotation for the team’s early struggles. After all, St. Louis lost Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis to free agency and has turned to relievers Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper to fill the gaps. On top of that, ace Chris Carpenter has been lost for nearly the entire season following arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow.
The truth is, though, only the won-lost record of the St. Louis rotation has deviated from last year’s performance.
St. Louis Rotation, 2006 vs. 2007
Year. . . . . Record. . . . . . . ERA (NL rank). . . . . . OBA (NL rank)
2006. . . . . .61-54. . . . . . . . 4.79 (12th). . . . . . . . . .277 (10th)
2007. . . . . . 8-16. . . . . . . . 4.85 (12th). . . . . . . . . .273 (13th)
That won-lost record has taken a downturn because the Cardinals are failing to put runs on the board. Among all major league club, only the Washington Nationals have scored fewer runs. No team has scored two or fewer runs in a game more times than St. Louis.
Games Scoring 2 or Fewer Runs, 2007
St. Louis. . . . . 16
Washington. . . 13
Baltimore. . . . 12
Oakland. . . . . 12
Colorado. . . . .12
That’s half of their games -- 16 of 32 -- that the Cardinals haven’t been able to score more than a pair of runs. Albert Pujols is off to a slow start, but he’ll be fine. Concern must center on Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, who are struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line and have combined for just three homers and 20 RBIs. Both have endured a long list of injuries, and maybe those ailments have taken their toll on two long-time run producers. Recent acquisitions Preston Wilson and Adam Kennedy haven’t produced.
There’s still plenty of time to turn things around in the National League Central, but will that happen in St. Louis? It seems more likely that last year’s World Series champs will have to scratch and fight to be a .500 team in 2007.
Comments
Where have I heard this before? Everyone wrote off St. Louis last September with less games to go.
Posted by: j matthew greenshields | May 12, 2007 10:49 AM
Even if the hitting comes around, which is entirely possible, starters will have to step up and two will have to be as effective as Carpenter and Suppan were a year ago. Looper has been that good in the early going, and maybe Wainwright will end up have a solid season. If we assume that happens, who holds up the back end of the rotation successfully enough to make the Cardinals a playoff team? Yes, it's early, but the length of the schedule may work against the Cardinals with their current rotation.
Posted by: TH | May 12, 2007 1:53 PM
Agreed. Time for Duncan and Jockety to start earning their pay.
Posted by: jmg | May 13, 2007 6:09 PM
Yeah, I think the Cards may have to trade their way into contention this season by dealing for pitching.
Posted by: TH | May 14, 2007 11:02 AM
By trading what? What have they got surplus of requirement? When they're healthy, their outfield would be Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds, and Juan Encarnacion--none of them are tradeable.
They don't even have prospects to trade. The Cardinals are a small market team whose minor league talent rankings by Baseball America have been 30th, 28th, 28th, 30th, and 21st the past five years. And with the exception of Blake Hawksworth, none of their Top 7 prospects as ranked by Baseball America played at a level higher than A-ball in 2006.
The Cardinals are clearly a team on the downswing, not just for this year, but for however long it takes to get rid of Walt Jocketty and rebuild the farm system.
Posted by: Ron T. | May 14, 2007 3:42 PM
You're right about that. That 21st ranking by Baseball America this spring reflects the better results of the Cardinals' 2006 draft, in which they opted for more college talent than high school prospects. It's a small gain for the system, but it's not enough to give the Cards something substantial to deal for a pennant run. The best thing they could do, of course, is NOT try to compete in 2007. The system is no longer producing regulars, and it must start generating its own talent so that the front office doesn't have to sign guys like Juan Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, Adam Kennedy and Kip Wells.
Posted by: TH | May 15, 2007 12:58 AM