With 295 career wins going into his Saturday start against the Yankees, Mets lefty Tom Glavine is poised to reach the 300-win plateau sometime during the second half of 2007. He will join Roger Clemens and former teammate Greg Maddux as the only active pitchers to claim No. 300.
In a recent issue of the Sporting News, managing editor Stan McNeal speculates that not only will the 21-year veteran be the 23rd pitcher to post 300 wins, he may be the last one to ever join the vaunted club. Only Randy Johnson, with 284 victories, is close.
McNeal has a valid point. Clemens, Maddux and Nolan Ryan are the only 300-game winners to reach the milestone in the last 20 years. Ryan, who debuted at age 19 in 1966, pitched 27 seasons before retiring at age 46 in 1993. He recorded his 300th victory in 1990 at age 43.
Ryan also benefited from starting his career 40 years ago, when big league clubs still used a four-man rotation. That was a key factor, as well, for the five pitchers who joined the 300 Club in the early 1980s -- Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro and Don Sutton. They all started their careers in the '60s.
Working in a four-man rotation prior to the shift to five starters in the mid-to-late 1970s meant roughly 10 more starts a season for these six Hall of Famers. That translates into more 20-win seasons and a faster track to 300 victories. In the 21-year span of 1965-85, there were 160 20-win performances. In the last 21 years, there have been only 79.
Glavine has enjoyed five 20-win campaigns. According to McNeal, the 41-year-old southpaw also radically revamped his game plan two years ago, after going 20-28 in his first two seasons with the Mets. To stick around, Glavine had to escape the scouting report on him that had stood for more than 15 years. With assistance from Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson, Glavine now pitches inside after a long career of mostly working the outer half of the plate. He throws more curves and works to more locations than ever before. The result? A 20-11 record since the start of the 2006 season.
What Glavine has going for him in his bid for 300 that virtually no other active hurler may have is the success of his teams. He worked for a perennial contender in Atlanta, which won its division in 11 of Glavine’s 16 seasons with the Braves. It’s also worked in his favor that he hasn’t spent a single day on the disabled list. Few pitchers have stuck around into their 40s without an injury.
Those are advantages that suggest Glavine -- and perhaps the Big Unit -- will be the last of the 300-game winners. Here are some of the candidates who will test that theory.
Young Starters Who May Chase 300 Wins
Pitcher. . . . . . . . . .Age. . . . . . . . . . Wins
Mark Buehrle . . . . . 28.2. . . . . . . . . . 100
C.C. Sabathia. . . . . .26.9. . . . . . . . . . . 90
Johan Santana. . . . .28.2. . . . . . . . . . . 84
Carlos Zambrano. . . 26.0. . . . . . . . . . . 71
Dontrelle Willis. . . . 25.4. . . . . . . . . . . 65
Left-handers Mark Buehrle and C.C. Sabathia look like the strongest candidates to approach the 300-win plateau. When Glavine turned 26 near the close of spring training in 1992, he had 59 wins. He had won 20 games for the first time in ‘91, when the Braves recorded their first winning season with the young lefty on the roster and reached the World Series.
Two years later, after celebrating his 28th birthday, Glavine was coming off three consecutive 20-win seasons and opened the 1994 campaign with 95 victories. At age 28, Glavine and Buehrle are at about the same place, with Sabathia still on a better pace than the 295-game winner.
Sabathia and the others, however, will need to enjoy long and healthy careers. And their teams will have to do their part if any of them are going to get as close to 300 wins as the dependable and durable Glavine.