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August 30, 2007

Mets' Reyes on the Run

Jose Reyes of the Mets was held without a stolen base Wednesday, marking the third straight day he didn’t swipe a bag. That may not seem unusual to you, but the Mets’ star shortstop hadn’t gone three consecutive games without a steal since the last week of July until the Phillies shut him down this week.

Reyes, who has 71 steals on the season, has stolen 21 bases in August alone. In the last 20 years, beginning with the 1988 season, only two players have stolen more bases in a single month: Vince Coleman with 24 in June 1990 and Roger Cedeno with 23 in May 1999. The Mets have two more games this month, so Reyes may still add to his monthly total.

For the record, no one has stolen 75 bases in a season over the last decade, and that shouldn’t be a problem for New York’s leadoff man. Stealing 80-90 isn’t out of the question either. No one has stolen 80 bases in a season since 1988, when Rickey Henderson led the majors with 93 steals for the Yankees and Coleman finished second with 81 for the Cardinals.

August 28, 2007

Which Contenders Can Survive Weak Rotations?

Among the playoff contenders, the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres lead the way in starter ERA this season, and both rotations rank among the league leaders in wins for their team. Rotations are much thinner for a number of contenders who may prove to be pretenders. Depending on who you still count as contenders heading into September, at least three in each league rank below the league average in starter ERA.

The question is whether these starting fives will step up down the stretch. A few are faring better in recent weeks, while others are trying to pull out of significant tailspins.

The defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals have a starter ERA of 5.04 in 2007, one of just three National League clubs worse than 5.00. The team ERA in August, however, is 3.78, the lowest in the league this month. After a slow start, closer-turned-starter Adam Wainwright has been terrific since June. World Series hero Anthony Reyes has been much better since returning from a month-long stay in Memphis, following an 0-10 start with St. Louis. If Kip Wells can keep giving the Cards serviceable innings and recent acquisition Joel Pineiro has truly found a home in St. Louis, this team gets a chance to defend.

The Milwaukee Brewers, the early front-runner in the NL Central, is heading in the opposite direction. The starter ERA for the season is 4.75 -- slightly higher than the NL mark of 4.56 -- and it’s been climbing. In August, the Brewers have a 5.62 team ERA that is the highest in the league. No turnaround is in sight for Chris Capuano, who is 0-11 with a 6.73 ERA in 17 appearances since his last win on May 7. Both Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush are nowhere near their best, and the young guys as well as the bullpen are wearing down. The return of injured ace Ben Sheets may not be enough to keep the Brewers in the mix.

The Philadelphia Phillies arguably had more rotation depth than all other clubs in spring training, but Brett Myers has moved to the back end of the bullpen, and Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Adam Eaton and Cole Hamels are on the disabled list. Although Eaton (shoulder) is ready to return, Lieber (foot tendon) is all but done for the year, and that may be the case for Garcia (shoulder) after seeing Dr. James Andrews this week. Hamels has elbow pain in a place often associated with Tommy John surgery and awaits more tests.

Rookie right-hander Kyle Kendrick has given the team a lift, and Twins castoffs Kyle Lohse and J.D. Durbin have been better than expected. Neither the Phillies nor a fantasy team can depend on the ex-Twins to maintain their current success. With the team’s August ERA at 5.13 -- only three NL teams have higher marks -- the Phillies are staying in the Mets’ rear-view mirror by scoring an NL-high 6.02 runs per game since the All-Star break. Guys like Lohse, Kendrick and Durbin will need to excel, because Jamie Moyer has struggled since early July and Eaton is the only injured starter who returns any time soon.

Then there are the old geezers with the New York Yankees. Future Hall of Famer Roger Clemens turned 45 this month, and he can’t put the Yankees on his back at this point in his career. Mike Mussina, 38, has a 7.09 ERA and .365 OBA since the All-Star break, and he’s been roughed up three consecutive times out in losses to the Angels and the Tigers twice. His velocity is down and he may be hiding an injury.

The Yankees’ playoff fate may come down to the performance of the other three guys in the rotation: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and rookie phenom Phil Hughes. The rookie is enduring some growing pains, so the Yanks can’t afford to have Wang or the 35-year-old Pettitte stumble down the stretch. The team ERA in August is 5.42. The rotation isn't getting it done.

The starter ERA of the Seattle Mariners is 5.06, and only the starting five of Tampa Bay and Texas have higher marks. No Mariner looks like a staff ace at this point, though three starters -- Felix Hernandez (4.17), Jeff Weaver (4.58) and Jarrod Washburn (4.91) -- have ERAs in the fours since the All-Star break. Both Hernandez and Miguel Batista have five second-half wins, despite Batista’s 5.15 ERA. Fifth starter Horacio Ramirez is 4-2 with a 6.85 ERA in this span. It’s hard to explain how the Mariners keep sticking around the pennant race, but they’ll need better performances from most of the starting five to stay in the race through the final weeks of the season.

After posting a 4.00 starter ERA that was the lowest in the majors in 2006, the Detroit Tigers rotation is at 4.72 this season, barely on the wrong end of the AL mark of 4.60. Although one might have expected starters as young as Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander to regress a bit after breakout 2006 seasons, Verlander has held his own, though there are concerns he's showing signs of tiring as he did a year ago. Bonderman was 9-1 (3.48 ERA) during the first half, but is 1-6 with a 7.57 ERA since the break. Young phenom Andrew Miller has been struggling of late, so currrently the dependable starters are just Verlander and Nate Robertson.

Despite a potent offense, the Tigers are 10-15 since the All-Star break. They desperately need injured setup men Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney back in the bullpen. Since the break, the Tigers have lost three-and-a-half games to the Indians, who boast a 3.36 second-half ERA that ranks second only to Toronto in the AL. Detroit, on the other hand, has a 5.46 post-break mark. The Tigers could use injured veteran Kenny Rogers down the stretch, as well as Zumaya and Rodney, but whether the team rebounds and takes charge of the AL Central may depend most on late-season surges from youngsters Bonderman, Miller or Verlander.

August 24, 2007

JOBA WATCH: 16/16

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Streaks like this, well, nobody ever really cared about...Until now!

The sample size police might come after us on this one, but Joba Chamberlain is doing something pretty remarkable.

So far, not a single big league hitter has made contact with his slider. That's right. This youngster is sporting a slider WHIFF rate of 1.000 in six appearances. Some of the victims: Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Gary Sheffield, Miguel Tejada, Pudge Rodriguez, Orlando Cabrera, and Vlad Guerrero.

It's obviously an exceptional pitch. It features a late, deep break--more of a downer, Bonderman-type slidejoint than something slurvy. But...keep in mind that Chamberlain is throwing this pitch in the strikezone only 16% of the time, which is about half as frequently as Fernando Cabrera and Brad Lidge, who are notorious breaking ball buriers. Nevertheless, you can give Chamberlain credit for executing the out-pitch and coaxing a swing--that counts for something--a lot of frontwards K's.

Keep coming back to STATS BLOG for all updates on this exciting WHIFF development.

UPDATE: Magglio Ordonez's incredible season continued in the 7th inning Friday night, as he became the first major league player to make contact with Chamberlain's slider, fouling out to first on an 0-1 pitch. The streak has ended at 17.

Rangers' 30 Runs the Most in MLB's Modern Era

It’s never been done in the modern era. Since 1901, the year the American League began play and major league baseball settled on the 16 franchises that live on to this day, no team has scored 30 runs in a game. That all changed Wednesday, when the Texas Rangers, bolstered by grand slams from Marlon Byrd and Travis Metcalf, whipped the Baltimore Orioles, 30-3.

No one has suggested that this feat is on par with what is widely considered the most unbreakable of records -- Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak -- but that’s probably because no one anticipated it ever happening. A look at how many times teams have scored as many as 25 runs in a game provides some perspective on what the Rangers did.

In the last 10-plus seasons, dating to the start of the 1997 campaign, 23 teams have scored 20 or more runs in a regular-season game. As far as scoring 25 or more runs in a game, that has been done only twice since 1997.

Prior to the Rangers’ onslaught Wednesday, the most runs scored in a game during this span were 26, by the Royals in a 26-5 thrashing of the rebuilding Tigers on Sept. 9, 2004. The Tigers, two years away from their World Series run, lost 90 games that season.

The only other team to score at least 25 runs in a game in the last 10 years is the Red Sox, who throttled the Marlins, 25-8, in an interleague contest on June 27, 2003. The 2003 Marlins rebounded nicely, of course, and went on to win the World Series that October.

Having 25-run performances in consecutive seasons is a rare feat. After all, since 1900, there have been just 18 games in which a team has scored 25 or more runs. That’s an average of one such game every six years. It’s happened only six times since the expansion era began in 1961, an average of one roughly every nine years, though all six games have taken place since the Phillies scored 26 runs against the Mets on June 11, 1985.

Having six of these games in the last 22 years is further proof of what a hitters era we’re living in. Four of the six games with at least 25 runs scored by a team were 26-run explosions. A fifth is Boston’s 25-8 win over the Florida in 2003. Then there’s the 30 runs by Texas this week, the most in a major league game since the Chicago Colts set the major league mark in a 36-7 rout of Louisville in a National League game on June 28, 1897. We may not wait 110 years to see the 30 mark reached again, but it probably will be a very long time.

August 21, 2007

WHIFF PROFILE: CHRIS YOUNG

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Young is a student of inducing fastball whiffage.

Chris Young is deceptive. He weighs 260 lbs, yet throws his fastball at a velocity (88.8mph) that's well below the MLB average (90.3mph). He's also very tall (6'10''), yet doesn't get nearly the amount of down-angle on his pitches that he could. His delivery, at least to the casual observer watching on television, seems clean and easy, without much that would seem to create discomfort at the plate.

Whether Young's secret has more to do with the way he conceals the baseball or the extension towards home he gets with his freakishly long wing span, there is definitely something hitters do not like. Young has baffled the National League to the tune of a 1.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, the two lowest figures in all of baseball. His fastball-heavy gameplan means plenty of belt-high and letter-high 4-seamers for hitters to see, but they invariably have difficulty putting a bat on them. Young's fastball has a WHIFF of .198, ranking in the top 15% in all of baseball. If you think that's impressive, how about the opposition's AVG/OBP/SLG against it: .185/.277/.264.

As recently as late-April of 2006, Young did not throw a slider. His repertoire included a fastball, slow curve, and change. About a month later, Young had essentially become a two-pitch guy, mixing a slider in with his usual abundance of fastballs. His slider, like his fastball, is a relatively soft pitch (80.5mph), but it has become devastating, posting a WHIFF of .411 this season.

His curve and change have become show pitches, and he throws both less than twice per game on average. His curve has a WHIFF of .000, which also happens to be the opposition's batting average against (hitters give up on this pitch consistently). His change has a .333 WHIFF, but, once again, it's a tiny sample size.

Does it help to pitch in the NL West, as well as calling Petco Park home? Of course. But there's a lot more going on here.

Chris Young WHIFF Breakdown

Fastball - .198 (MLB AVG .140)
Curveball - .000 (MLB AVG .270)
Slider - .411 (MLB AVG .299)
Change - .333 (MLB AVG .273)

August 20, 2007

Carmona and the Groundball Critical to Cleveland’s Success

It would be hard to find a one-year turnaround by a pitcher that is more impressive than the one executed by Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona. A year ago, he pitched successfully out of the Indians’ bullpen in a May-July stretch, allowing just three earned runs and posting a 1.03 ERA over 26.1 innings. When closer Bob Wickman was dealt to Atlanta in late July, Carmona took over ninth-inning duties and failed miserably. He went 0-5, blew all three of his save chances, allowed 32 baserunners in 11.1 innings and posted a 13.50 ERA before a late-August demotion to Triple-A Buffalo. He finished the season 1-10 (5.42) with Cleveland.

Carmona pitched in the Buffalo rotation the rest of the way before making three promising September starts to close out the season with the Tribe. Still, it’s unlikely that many baseball fans would have anticipated his remarkable performance in 2007. Although the Indians rank in the American League’s upper division in runs per game, averaging nearly five a contest, where would they be without the 28 wins combined -- 14 each -- by the two staff aces, C.C. Sabathia and Carmona? Paul Byrd has 11 wins, but no other Cleveland pitcher has more than six victories.

The hard-throwing 23-year-old right-hander has given the Tribe what was expected from Jake Westbrook, who suffered an oblique injury in May and is just starting to hit his stride. Carmona lost his opening start of 2007, his 11th straight loss since winning his major league debut in April 2006. Since then, however, he has gone 14-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts. He endured a difficult June (2-3, 5.82 ERA), but he’s 6-3 with a 1.99 ERA in July and August. He’s worked quality starts in seven of his last nine times out.

Carmona has been a pleasant surprise. A key to his success has been a 3.31 groundball-flyball ratio that is the highest among American League starters. As a result, Carmona has induced 28 groundball double plays, the most in the majors, and no one can top his 1.58 GDPs per nine innings.

Opponents’ Grounded into DP per 9 IP, 2007

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . .GDP/9
Fausto Carmona, Cle. . . 1.58
Noah Lowry, SF. . . . . . .1.52
Aaron Cook, Col. . . . . . 1.46
Chien-Ming Wang, NYY. .1.37
Kelvim Escobar, LAA. . . .1.37

Only five times in 24 starts has Carmona struck out more than five batters. That may seem to be a warning sign that the second-year pitcher hasn’t been as good as the numbers suggest, but who needs the “K” when the groundball has been your best friend all season? To Carmona’s credit, he fanned a career-high 10 over eight innings in his last outing, a 5-2 win over division rival Detroit on Wednesday.

August 18, 2007

Watch Out, Boston: The Yankees are Coming!

With a 4.72 ERA from their starters, which ranks 10th in the American League, the New York Yankees can’t possibly claim their 13th consecutive playoff berth with the rotation stumbling through a difficult season. Or can they?

Yes, Boston leads the league in team ERA at 3.80, and the Red Sox rank among the offensive elite in the AL. Yet, they have the hard-charging Yankees breathing down their neck.

The Yankees were 12 games back in the AL East following a loss to Johan Santana and the Twins on the Fourth of July. After the Yankees shut down Detroit Friday night, while Boston was splitting a doubleheader with the Angels, the deficit has dwindled to just five games.

New York is 25-11 since the All-Star break. If you look at the 20 teams with the best second-half winning percentages in a season over the last 10 years, 1997-2006, all of them made the playoffs. The 2007 New York Yankees compare favorably with this group.

Top Second-Half Winning Percentages, 1997-2007

Team. . . . . . . . . . Year. . . . W-L. . . . . . . Pct
Athletics. . . . . . . 2001. . . . . 58-17. . . . . .773
Athletics. . . . . . . 2002. . . . . 53-21. . . . . .716
Diamondbacks. . . .1999. . . . . 52-21. . . . . .712
Mariners. . . . . . . 2001. . . . . 53-22. . . . . .707
Yankees. . . . . . .2007. . . . .25-11. . . . . .694
Braves. . . . . . . . .2004. . . . . 51-24. . . . . .680
Cardinals. . . . . . .2004. . . . . 51-24. . . . . .680

There’s a long way to go, but for now, the Yankees are outslugging opponents. They are averaging 7.14 runs a game since the All-Star break. That’s nearly a run better than the next-best team, the Phillies at 6.18.

Robinson Cano is batting .396 in the second half, with 29 runs and 29 RBIs in 36 games. Hideki Matsui is hitting .359 with 12 homers and 30 RBIs. That’s one more home run than he hit in the entire first half. Jorge Posada checks in at .351 with 21 RBIs in 29 games. Jason Giambi just returned from a two-month stay on the disabled list for plantar fascia, and he has four homers in eight contests, including two solo shots in Friday night’s 6-1 win over the Tigers.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 20-15 since the All-Star break. One would have expected the Boston bullpen to get a big lift when the Red Sox acquired Eric Gagne at the trade deadline, but he’s allowed runs in five of seven appearances since changing addresses. He failed to protect a four-run lead in a late-inning loss to the Orioles on Aug. 10. Two days later he had another eighth-inning meltdown, allowing a two-run homer to Miguel Tejada that erased a 3-1 lead, and the Red Sox lost in 10 innings. On Friday night against the Angels, he worked the ninth and took the loss when he allowed three runs in a 7-5 defeat.

If you believe in karma or momentum, it’s going in one direction for the Red Sox and in the other direction for the Yankees. The axiom goes that pitching and defense win in the playoffs, and maybe that works against the 2007 Yankees. But that doesn’t mean these Bronx Bombers won’t be playing October baseball.

August 14, 2007

Ankiel's Back: Launching Balls in the Opposite Direction

It’s been eight years since Rick Ankiel arrived in the majors in August 1999, one month after his 20th birthday. One of the premier pitching prospects in the game, the rookie left-hander impressed the Cardinals in five starts and four relief appearances, posting a 3.27 ERA, a save and 39 strikeouts in 33 innings.

St. Louis won the National League Central the following season, with Ankiel starting 30 games and going 11-7 with a 3.50 ERA. He fanned 194 in 175 innings before starting the Cardinals’ playoff opener that October at age 21. That’s when Ankiel’s career began to unravel.

Facing Atlanta in the opener of the 2000 Division Series, Ankiel lasted less than three innings and walked six. He threw five wild pitches in the first inning of his next start against the Mets in the NLCS. When the Cardinals’ season ended, the southpaw had worked a total of four postseason innings, allowed 11 walks and threw nine wild pitches.

It was painful to watch Ankiel struggle to that degree with a nation of baseball fans watching, and it seemed entirely possible that his case of Steve Blass Disease was career-threatening. For all practical purposes, it was. Between Triple-A Memphis and St. Louis in 2001, his walks exceeded his innings pitched. He missed 2002 with an elbow strain and tore a ligament in the joint in 2003. He finally made his way back to St. Louis in September 2004, but the frustration of the last four years returned when Ankiel felt a twinge in the elbow that winter while pitching in Puerto Rico.

In March 2005, Ankiel announced he was moving to the outfield to keep his dream alive. The change might have seemed like an extreme long shot when he started 1-for-21 for Double-A Springfield, but he rebounded to finish at .259 with 21 homers and 75 RBIs in 85 games between low Class-A Quad Cities and Springfield.

The experiment was sidetracked when Ankiel hurt his left knee the next spring and had surgery that put him on the shelf for all of 2006. By then, he had endured so many obstacles and setbacks that he might have been less affected by the injury, but he had to be concerned that he would celebrate his 27th birthday near midseason.

Ankiel made his Triple-A debut as a position player this spring and hit as though he was a Triple-A veteran. He batted .267 with a Pacific Coast League-leading 32 homers and 89 RBIs in 102 games at Memphis, before returning to St. Louis for the first time in nearly three years on Aug. 9.

And what a return it was. Ankiel drilled a three-run homer in the Cardinals’ 5-0 win over San Diego last Thursday. On Sunday, he stroked two more longballs in a 6-1 victory over the Dodgers. He’s hit safely in all four games he’s played going into Tuesday’s matchup in Milwaukee. He’s 6-for-16 (.375) with a double and three homers.

That home run on Aug. 9 will be a life-long memory, but what may remain front and center for a long time in Ankiel’s memory bank is the post-homer standing ovation he received, which lasted long enough to require a curtain call.

"I wasn't sure what I was supposed to do there," Ankiel told St. Louis writers after the game. It could be expected that Ankiel didn’t know how to react to success after so much struggle, but that will be a short-lived problem if he continues to make the most of the second chance that he’s worked so hard to make happen.

It’s good to see good things happen for Ankiel. Welcome back.

August 9, 2007

Who is Baseball's Home Run King?

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Although Hank Aaron is less a classic home run hitter than either Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds, his line-drive approach to the longball allowed him to hit 30 or more in a season 15 times. Surprisingly, Aaron is the only player with 600 home runs to never hit 50 in a single season, but you could make a case that he is the greatest home run hitter of all time.

Aaron, a complete player for most of his career, stayed fit and kept adding to his homer total on a consistent basis even as he approached age 40. At 37 in 1971, he stroked a career-high 47 home runs, one short of Willie Stargell’s major league-leading total, though no one other than them broke the 40 mark that summer. Aaron hit 40 in 1973, at that time a rare feat for someone his age, and he retired with 755 homers in 1976.

What is remarkable about Aaron’s total is that he played most of his career in a pitcher-friendly era that culminated in Bob Gibson posting a 1.12 ERA in 1968, the best single-season mark going back to 1914 and the dead-ball era.

A lowering of the mound and expansion in 1969 began to reverse the advantage that pitchers enjoyed, but by then, Aaron had collected 510 of his home runs. The difference in hitting home runs in the 1960s compared to the last 15 years can’t be underestimated.

During Aaron’s 23 seasons, only three players hit as many as 50 homers in a season. . . and Hammerin’ Hank wasn’t one of them. Roger Maris was, when he surpassed Babe Ruth’s single-season mark with 61 in 1961. Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle each did it twice. No one hit 50 longballs in a season during Aaron’s career after Mays stroked 52 in 1965.

In fact, after Mays’ MVP season in 1965, only George Foster hit the 50 mark (in 1977) until the onslaught of 50-homer hitters began in 1995, two years after the first of two rounds of expansion in the 1990s. Since 1995, 23 times players have delivered 50 or more home runs in a season. Six times the 60 plateau has been reached, which had been done only twice in the history of the game before Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa changed all that in 1998.

The latest rounds of expansion have made a significant dent in pitching depth on big league staffs. Adding two new teams in 1993 also introduced the hitter-friendly, mile-high altitude of Denver to big league hitters. The Arizona franchise joined the National League in 1997, giving hitters another place to hit at more than 1,000 feet above sea level.

Bonds also has benefited from the new ballparks of the last decade. Most of them have been built smaller and have inflated hitting stats. The new stadiums in Cincinnati and Philadelphia have been nearly as hitter- and homer-friendly as Colorado’s Coors Field.

No one can say for certain if Bonds is a beneficiary of the so-called steroids era. Even if he’s guilty as charged, steroids don’t hit home runs. People do. And those people probably were aided more by weaker pitching and small ballparks. The issue of whether players have been juiced also has detracted from another once-hot topic that hasn’t been addressed in recent years: are the balls juiced?

The issue was in the forefront when McGwire and Sosa began challenging the single-season home run record. And with MLB trying to regain its footing after the labor strife of 1994-95, the likelihood of a juiced ball seemed real, though getting a definitive answer was no easier than determining which players have indulged in performance-enhancing drugs.

For this writer, the 16 home runs that Rex Hudler hit in 1996, the only year in which he hit more than eight, drew attention to the juiced-ball issue. When the Wonder Dog began hitting balls out the opposite way around this time, it seemed the ball may have been as tightly wound as the gung-ho, all-out Hudler.

It’s a different era today, and regardless whether players or the ball have been juiced, hitting home runs clearly is an easier task in today’s game. I would find it difficult to make a case against Bonds being the greatest hitter of all time, but Aaron’s 755 homers didn’t come as easy as the 756 posted by Bonds. In my mind, Hammerin’ Hank still is the home run king.

--Thom Henninger


Barry Bonds is baseball's new Home Run King.

Get used to it--not neccessarily of Bonds being the Home Run King (that record could be Alex Rodriguez's in 10 years or so)--but of that uneasy feeling you have. Baseball is undergoing a a massive transition period in the hearts and minds of its fans.

This, I think, is clear: Performance enhancing drugs are here to stay. There is simply too much at stake and too much money being made by players for cheaters not to stay a step or two ahead of the testers. Testers can't test for drugs that they don't know exist. We are in the middle, maybe just the beginning, of the Steroid Era. Just as Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were the Home Run Kings during their respective eras (and in the decades that followed) Bonds is the King of the Steroid Era, although it might be a much shorter time at the top.

I'm not going to make some head-in-the-sand claim that Bonds' either didn't do PEDs, or, that PEDs didn't help him significantly in his later years, but Bonds is probably the best slugger of his generation, and performed with an Aaron-like consistency throughout the '90s. In the '00s, we saw what the best slugger of a generation could do...with the help of technology. The achievement, without a doubt, is partially illusory. But you can't deny that Bonds worked very hard and walloped baseballs like nobody, ever, could.

Also, Bonds is catching much more than his fair share of heat for steroids in baseball. Start using the eye test. There's a lot of useful circumstantial evidence out there. Chances are, your favorite slugger has juiced, a big handful of power hitters and power pitchers on your fantasy team have juiced, and then there's the Rafael Betancourts and Clay Hensleys that you wouldn't have ever expected to have juiced, but did.

It's complicated. There's been a much more level playing field than anyone wants to admit, and Bonds lapped it. What you have to ask yourself is, do you still like baseball? Do you still like your favorite slugger? The "Romantic" period of the game has passed. It might not be possible to fairy-tale it to your kids anymore. Baseball has changed. It is not as pure. It is not as simple. It is a big industry. It's unrealistic for fans to think they can have it both ways. We're in a state of denial, and the realization of what's happening is slowly sinking in. We'll have to adjust our feelings towards the game, or disown it.

Hey, I like Hank Aaron. He was a more dignified and likable guy than Bonds.

But Bonds is going to clobber his record, with really only one obscene year of homers. He's going to hit 30 bombs this year, and isn't showing too many signs of a weakening power stroke.

Bud Selig hasn't made too many interesting comments, but when he stated, "Barry Bonds has done something noteworthy and remarkable," I thought that was about as accurate as you could put it. Bonds did something very remarkable, he hit the most homers in the most spectacular fashion ever. It's ethicality: questionable.

Aaron will maintain a place in history--he'll still be the Home Run King--before the Steroid Era.

But for now and in the near future, Bonds will hold that crown. And if you're thinking of yanking it away from him, think first about the conditions during which he played.

--Tom Koch-Weser

August 6, 2007

What Were the Pirates Thinking in Acquiring Morris?

Teams in contention often are enticed to take on an overpriced player at the trade deadline, in order to fill a weak spot down the stretch. Usually these aren’t financially sound deals, but if you’re closing in on a playoff berth, a player like Matt Morris could prove to be the difference.

It raises eyebrows, however, that a team that hasn’t been in the running for October baseball in years acquired Morris, who is making more than $10 million this season. The Pittsburgh Pirates picked up Morris Tuesday from the San Francisco Giants for outfielder Rajai Davis and a minor league player to be named. The veteran right-hander, who turns 33 on Aug. 9, immediately became the highest-paid player in Pirates history.

A stunning aspect of the deal is that the small-market Pirates agreed to take on Morris’ full salary, and they are on the hook to pay him $9.5 million in 2008. The Pirates were willing to do that, believing Morris was the experienced starter that their young pitching staff needed to turn the group into solid big league performers.

The Pirates “stole” Morris by arriving late on the scene and trumping two contenders who were less willing to pay all of Morris’ salary. It’s hard to fathom Pittsburgh not negotiating a similar deal in light of the veteran’s 7-7 record and 4.35 ERA this season. Yes, he’s durable and gives a pitching staff lots of innings, but prior to the trade, Morris was 17-22 with a 4.73 ERA in 54 starts since joining the Giants at the start of the 2006 season.

One could make the case that giving up Rajai Davis, who looks like little more than a fourth outfielder, is a worthy risk on a team lacking front-line talent. After all, picking up Adam Dunn from the Reds would have been a far-pricier investment. Still, the acquisition of the high-priced Morris isn’t likely to make much of a dent on a team that is on course for its third straight 95-loss season. The Pirates are 4-16 since the All-Star break.

The deal suggests newly designated principal owner Bob Nutting may be willing to spend some money to boost one of the lowest payrolls in the majors. It’s not a bad idea in light of Pittsburgh’s 14-straight losing seasons heading into 2007, but this deal might have been as much about avoiding a second-half crash-and-burn that could cost Pirates GM Dave Littlefield his job. The general manager also has added veteran infielder Cesar Izturis in recent weeks, though he may counter that acquisition by trading high-priced shortstop Jack Wilson in August.

Littlefield is testing an approach tried a few years ago by former Royals GM Allard Baird, who signed or acquired overpriced third-tier talent to convince fans they were trying to compete. Mark Grudzielanek and Reggie Sanders come to mind, but the Royals lost at least 100 games for a third straight season in 2006 and may lose 100 again this year.

The dilemma for teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh is that free agents aren’t inclined to sign with franchises that haven’t competed for years and show little likelihood to do so anytime soon.

"We've talked about acquiring a veteran starter the past couple seasons and haven't been able to acquire the guy we were looking for," Littlefield told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette after the deal went down.

So, small-market teams are lured into poor free-agent moves for reasons other than simply convincing fans of their commitment. It seems only players on the downside of their careers will consider a move to Pittsburgh or Kansas City, usually because there is no other market for them.

That’s the situation that teams such as Kansas City, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh face. The Pirates don’t feel Morris is dramatically overpaid when you look at what guys like Jason Marquis, Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche signed for over the winter. And just maybe, their multimillion-dollar tutor will pay off in further developing the likes of Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke.

Small-market clubs, however, must not lose sight of the fact that developing your own talent is the key to breaking long stretches of mediocrity. Minnesota and Oakland manage to compete annually without turning to and overpaying past-their-peak veterans such as Morris.

Perhaps the Pirates’ situation is unique and Morris will aid the club’s young pitchers in ways that can’t be measured, but even then, Pittsburgh didn’t need to take on his full salary to get a deal done. The trade as it went down wasn’t a smart one for the small-market Pirates, who continue to flounder in putting together a competitive team.