With a 4.72 ERA from their starters, which ranks 10th in the American League, the New York Yankees can’t possibly claim their 13th consecutive playoff berth with the rotation stumbling through a difficult season. Or can they?

Yes, Boston leads the league in team ERA at 3.80, and the Red Sox rank among the offensive elite in the AL. Yet, they have the hard-charging Yankees breathing down their neck.

The Yankees were 12 games back in the AL East following a loss to Johan Santana and the Twins on the Fourth of July. After the Yankees shut down Detroit Friday night, while Boston was splitting a doubleheader with the Angels, the deficit has dwindled to just five games.

New York is 25-11 since the All-Star break. If you look at the 20 teams with the best second-half winning percentages in a season over the last 10 years, 1997-2006, all of them made the playoffs. The 2007 New York Yankees compare favorably with this group.

Top Second-Half Winning Percentages, 1997-2007

Team. . . . . . . . . . Year. . . . W-L. . . . . . . Pct
Athletics. . . . . . . 2001. . . . . 58-17. . . . . .773
Athletics. . . . . . . 2002. . . . . 53-21. . . . . .716
Diamondbacks. . . .1999. . . . . 52-21. . . . . .712
Mariners. . . . . . . 2001. . . . . 53-22. . . . . .707
Yankees. . . . . . .2007. . . . .25-11. . . . . .694
Braves. . . . . . . . .2004. . . . . 51-24. . . . . .680
Cardinals. . . . . . .2004. . . . . 51-24. . . . . .680

There’s a long way to go, but for now, the Yankees are outslugging opponents. They are averaging 7.14 runs a game since the All-Star break. That’s nearly a run better than the next-best team, the Phillies at 6.18.

Robinson Cano is batting .396 in the second half, with 29 runs and 29 RBIs in 36 games. Hideki Matsui is hitting .359 with 12 homers and 30 RBIs. That’s one more home run than he hit in the entire first half. Jorge Posada checks in at .351 with 21 RBIs in 29 games. Jason Giambi just returned from a two-month stay on the disabled list for plantar fascia, and he has four homers in eight contests, including two solo shots in Friday night’s 6-1 win over the Tigers.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are just 20-15 since the All-Star break. One would have expected the Boston bullpen to get a big lift when the Red Sox acquired Eric Gagne at the trade deadline, but he’s allowed runs in five of seven appearances since changing addresses. He failed to protect a four-run lead in a late-inning loss to the Orioles on Aug. 10. Two days later he had another eighth-inning meltdown, allowing a two-run homer to Miguel Tejada that erased a 3-1 lead, and the Red Sox lost in 10 innings. On Friday night against the Angels, he worked the ninth and took the loss when he allowed three runs in a 7-5 defeat.

If you believe in karma or momentum, it’s going in one direction for the Red Sox and in the other direction for the Yankees. The axiom goes that pitching and defense win in the playoffs, and maybe that works against the 2007 Yankees. But that doesn’t mean these Bronx Bombers won’t be playing October baseball.