In exactly one month’s time, from Sept. 16 through Oct. 15, the Colorado Rockies won 21 of 22 games to clinch the National League pennant. Then they sat eight days and were swept by the Boston Red Sox in the World Series.

It’s a shame that the scheduling of the postseason is dictated by television, which gives us unnecessary days off throughout October. The layoff between the NLCS and World Series certainly didn’t help the Colorado pitching staff, which ranked among the game’s elite in various categories during the team’s month-long surge.

Most starters prefer to take their regular turn, and relievers were used to throwing every two or three days before they sat for more than a week prior to the World Series. That can compromise a pitcher’s sharpness, and the selective Red Sox hitters were effective at forcing Colorado hurlers to throw strikes.

Despite the layoff, Rockies pitchers did throw first-pitch strikes to Boston hitters as consistently as they had during the 21-1 surge. But the disciplined Red Sox frequently worked counts to get a hittable pitch. The pitching staff’s poorer walk and strikeout rates in the World Series suggest the Red Sox won the battle to control the strike zone.

Colorado’s lineup was affected, as well. Facing Josh Beckett in Game 1 was quite an assignment after all that time off, and the Rockies attack never produced as it had during the previous 22 games. The numbers tell the story.

Colorado’s Crash in the World Series

Sept. 16-Oct. 15. . . . Hitting. . . . . . . .World Series
.294 . . . . . . . . . . . . . AVG. . . . . . . . . . . .218
.487. . . . . . . . . . . . . .SLG. . . . . . . . . . . .346
6.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . Runs/G. . . . . . . . . . .2.5
1.4. . . . . . . . . . . . . .HR/G. . . . . . . . . . . .0.8
4.0. . . . . . . . . . . . . .BB/G. . . . . . . . . . . .2.5

Sept. 16-Oct. 15. . . . Pitching. . . . . . . World Series
2.80. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ERA. . . . . . . . . . . .7.68
.232. . . . . . . . . . . . . . OBA. . . . . . . . . . . .333
56.0. . . . . . . . . . 1st Pitch Strike Pct . . . . 55.2
2.9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . BB/9 IP. . . . . . . . . . 5.0
7.5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .K/9 IP. . . . . . . . . . .5.3

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Heading into the 2007-08 season, the Columbus Blue Jackets had recorded just 22 shutouts in their six NHL campaigns, and never more than five in a single season. The Blue Jackets, who recorded just four shutouts in all of 2006-07, set an NHL record with their fourth in October Thursday night.

Since the NHL began scheduling October games 65 years ago, at the start the 1942-43 season, no team had blanked its opponents more than three times for the month. The much-improved Blue Jackets, who are 5-3-1 on the season, had become the 26th team since 1942-43 to record three October shutouts before Thursday night’s 3-0 win over St. Louis.

Goaltender Pascal Leclaire, who has bounced back from an injury-plagued 2006-07 season that put his No. 1 job on the line this fall, has been in net for all four shutouts. When knee and leg injuries limited Leclaire to 24 games a year ago, Finnish import Fredrik Norrena took over, played well and posted the first winning record in Columbus history. But it’s been Leclaire carrying the load in the early going.

"He's on the mark," Columbus coach Ken Hitchcock said of his starter after a recent win, though the inspired play of the Blue Jackets in their own end also is a credit to the defensemen: Adam Foote, Rostislav Klesla, Ron Hainsey, Jan Hejda, Kris Russell and Ole-Kristian Tollefsen.

In the course of blanking the Stanley Cup champion Ducks, 4-0, on Oct. 5, the Blue Jackets held Anaheim without a shot for the first 16 minutes of the game. By then, they had rifled 14 shots on net and scored twice. Leclaire faced 32 shots in shutting down Phoenix on Oct. 10, though he was seldom tested. The same was true in last Friday’s 3-0 win in Buffalo.

Thursday night’s victory marked the first time the Blue Jackets were outshot when shutting out an opponent, as Leclaire stopped a season-high 36 shots in blanking the Blues. What was most memorable about the game, however, was a between-the-legs goal scored by Rick Nash. The Blue Jackets star tallied a goal in his fifth straight game when he stretched to play the ricochet of a slap shot off the boards from the side of the net. He pulled in the puck and then lifted it between his legs and high into the top of the net.

Columbus goes for its sixth win of the season on Saturday, when the team squares off against San Jose at home. The Blue Jackets didn’t win their sixth game a year ago until Nov. 25.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I think the American League is better than the National League. I think the AL East is stronger than the NL West. I even believe the Red Sox roster is loaded with more star power and young talent than any team in baseball.

But here's something that's quite possible: The Colorado Rockies have forgotten how to lose. With 21 victories in their last 22 contests, they haven't dropped a game in nearly a month. They're on a historic roll that even has Theo Epstein gushing.

Tonight and tomorrow, the Rox are supposed to catch a bad case of the "Fenway butterflies." But will they? They have every reason to be confident. They shelled Beckett and Schilling at Fenway during the regular season, and have yet to lose in October. The Red Sox, on the other hand, just played an exhilarating and very, very long seven-game series with the Indians (the average game was 3 hours and 42 minutes). Isn't there supposed to be at least a mini-letdown after that? The Rockies are well rested and, if they can manage a single win in the Series' first two games, they'll steal home-field advantage and slingshot themselves into a frenzied Coors Field.

Getting to Coors Field, and subsequently, forcing the Red Sox to play National League ball, is where I think the series hinges. Clint Hurdle has already rolled the dice a bit and announced Aaron Cook (DL since August 10) as his Game 4 starter, in place of Franklin Morales. If Cook is his usual, innings-eating self, he'll be a better matchup against the Red Sox, who work the average pitcher to death. Morales, while a better stuff guy than Cook, would be a long-shot to last any more than five innings. Cook throws close to 80% sinkers, pitches to contact and can take advantage of the Rockies' historically clean defense.

The Red Sox, like any offensively-centered AL team, are at a major disadvantage when playing in a National League park, much more so than when the roles are switched. They are going to lose a key bat from their lineup (either J.D. Drew or Kevin Youkilis), and their defense will be compromised even further than it already is with Man-Ram roaming Coors' left-field acreage, as David Ortiz will man first.

I think there's a pattern developing when teams face the Rockies. They can't help but underestimate them. They have a starting pitching staff (and bullpen, for that matter) with almost zero name-brand value, their lineup is full of cast-offs and sneaky-good young guys whose last names are hard to pronounce, and they also have the best hitter in the NL, except nobody wants to give him credit for it, including me.

I see Colorado continuing its ambush. Rox in 5.

Tom Koch-Weser

It’s been a magical run for the Colorado Rockies, but they’ve been sitting around for more than a week while the Boston Red Sox have cooked up some magic of their own. In the course of overcoming a three-games-to-one deficit in the ALCS, Boston’s bats came alive, and that doesn’t bode well for the Rockies.

The Red Sox have the firepower and run production that Arizona lacked, and the Colorado pitching staff faces a bigger challenge than it did in the Rockies’ four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks in the NLCS. The Red Sox are averaging seven runs a game in the postseason, more than eight per game at Fenway Park.

Boston is batting .370 against left-handed pitching in October, so Wednesday night’s opener will be a key test for the Rockies and their Game 1 starter, southpaw Jeff Francis. Both Francis and Red Sox ace Josh Beckett have won a pair of series openers in this year’s playoffs, but in Game 1 of the World Series, the Rockies will go up against a right-hander who has proven to be one of the more dependable and dominant October performers in years.

Colorado’s dangerous left-handed hitters will have to face Beckett twice in the World Series. The Rockies roughed him up during their regular-season meeting with the Red Sox, but that may mean little the way Beckett has pitched in the playoffs.

Boston can hit home runs and play little ball, too, with Dustin Pedroia, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the lineup. This team is better tailored to Coors Field than it would have been a few years ago, though the Red Sox will lose a key bat when the Series moves to Denver. The Rockies are a wonderful story, an exciting team that has played its best, but they have met their match in the Red Sox.

Thom Henninger

Posted by Tom Koch-Weser at 1:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

It's hard to argue with the success of UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. After completely demolishing former champ Rich "Ace" Franklin for the second time last weekend at UFC 77, the primary question should be why Silva was seemingly fed to the lions in Franklin's home town. Not only did Silva prove his point initially by defeating Ace less than a year ago, but this time he had to do it against a highly partisan audience.

Despite such a significant disadvantage, Silva somehow raised the level of his game so that all other factors were rendered meaningless. The Spider once again broke Franklin's nose and certainly proved to the rest of the UFC that he is THE force at 185 pounds. However, don't expect Silva to have much down time with Dan Henderson waiting in the wings.

Posted by Walter Lis at 2:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Boston Red Sox’s rebound from a 3-0 deficit to the New York Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series will be on everyone’s mind tonight, when Boston and Cleveland square off in Game 7 of the ALCS. The Red Sox have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit in the series to force a final game, and history is in their favor.

Fourteen times in postseason history a team has recovered from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series to play a Game 7. In 10 of those series, the team that bounced back to win Games 5 and 6 made it three straight to claim the series. The last team to surrender a three-games-to-one lead and still win Game 7 was the 1992 Braves, who advanced to the World Series when Sid Bream lumbered home on Francisco Cabrera’s series-clinching single against Pittsburgh.

Since then, there has been a pair of memorable comebacks from 3-1 deficits.

The Braves fell behind three games to one to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1996 NLCS, scoring just 12 runs in the first four games. They bounced back with 14-0 and 15-0 wins behind John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, respectively, victories that were sandwiched around a stellar outing from Greg Maddux, who worked a 3-1 win in Game 6.

The Florida Marlins recovered from being down three games to one in the 2003 NLCS, winning the final two games at Wrigley Field before advancing to the World Series and upsetting the Yankees. A guy named Josh Beckett blanked the Cubs in Game 5 of the NLCS to keep the Marlins alive, and he was just as dominant in beating Cleveland in Game 5 earlier this week. He struck out 11 in both LCS appearances, and wasn’t too shabby in the 2003 World Series, either.

The Red Sox have one of the more recent 3-1 comebacks in their history as well, when they fell behind three games to one to the California Angels in the 1986 ALCS. The Angels took a 5-2 lead into the ninth inning of Game 5, but Boston avoided elimination thanks to a two-run homer from Don Baylor, followed by a two-run shot by Dave Henderson off Donnie Moore, one of the more memorable home runs in Red Sox history. The Angels tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, lost in the 11th on a Henderson sac fly, and the Red Sox rolled in the final two games.

All of that means nothing Sunday night, though it’s hard to deny Boston’s momentum going into Game 7. Cleveland will have to start hitting again. The Indians batted .311 and averaged nearly seven runs a game in their first six playoff contests. In the last four, they are hitting .213 while scoring just 3.5 runs a game.

Cleveland has to make the most of facing Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. He usually worked on five days’ rest in Japan, and he pitches Game 7 after five days off. That would seem to work in his favor, as he was 5-7 with a 5.29 ERA on four days’ rest during the regular season, but 10-5 (3.80 ERA) with five or more days off.

Those numbers may mean little, however, with Matsuzaka pitching 214 innings so far in 2007. The rookie right-hander seems to have tired. Since recording four quality starts in a row July 24-Aug. 10, Matsuzaka has worked just two quality outings in his last 10 times out, including the postseason. In this stretch, he is 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Cleveland Indians are on the verge of a World Series berth, but it's Boston slugger Manny Ramirez who is the focal point of nearly all of the media attention heading into Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.

Baseball fans probably would have more easily forgotten Ramirez’s home-run gazing and the celebration that followed his sixth-inning bomb in Game 4 -- with Boston trailing by four runs -- if he hadn’t weighed in on the magnitude of the Red Sox’s situation going into tonight game.

“Why panic,” Ramirez said Wednesday. “If we don’t do it, we’ll come back next year and try again. If it doesn’t happen, who cares? There’s always next year. It’s not the end of the world.”

Oops. Nearly everyone who steps onto the field tonight will care, as will a large percentage of New Englanders and long-suffering Cleveland fans waiting for the team’s first World Series title since 1948.

Beyond downplaying how important the game is to millions of baseball fans, the truth is, Ramirez is right. In the big picture, a Boston loss on Thursday night is not the end of the world. The leaves will fall, winter will come and go, spring flowers will bloom and the Red Sox will return to Florida to try again next year. That’s been the story for more than 100 years.

Of course, only someone has uninhibited and in his own little world as Ramirez would say what he did. Some things are better left unsaid, but Manny will be Manny and sometimes microphones and recorders bring Manny’s world to us.

Is what he said really that much of a story? It’s been plastered all over newspapers and dominated ALCS coverage on TV and radio, and much of the coverage has been hard on Boston's resident eccentric. You can be sure his statement will also get its share of attention from the FOX crew tonight, as well. And yes, I’m guilty of contributing to the buzz, too.

But I just don’t think this is much of a story. Ramirez isn’t failing the Red Sox. The guy’s batting .429 and leading Boston with four homers and 11 RBIs in the postseason. Maybe what he said would be a story if he wasn’t producing or didn’t appear to be trying. Believe it or not, this is a player who is known to show up during morning hours to lift weights and take extra hitting before night games. His words weren't meant to be taken quite so literally. He does care.

To Ramirez, baseball is little more than see the ball, hit the ball. It’s not a source of worry and I suspect he hardly ever takes games home with him. If some of his struggling teammates could play with Ramirez’s mental approach, perhaps the Red Sox wouldn’t be down three games to one.

There are few characters in the game in this era of multimillion-dollar contracts. Players rarely say what they think or go out on a limb about anything for fear of risking their next contract. Ramirez is one of a kind, and for that, media types should enjoy covering Manny being Manny.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Not only have the Minnesota Wild started 5-0-0, making them the only undefeated team in the NHL, they have held opponents scoreless in three of those victories. The Wild were outshot in two of them, but Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding still blanked the opposition.

Backstrom was a terrific under-the-radar free-agent signing a year ago. The 29-year-old netminder, a veteran of the Finnish Elite League, took over for the injured Manny Fernandez near midseason and went on to lead the league in goals-against average. He was stellar in the season opener, a 1-0 win over Chicago despite a 27-24 shots advantage for the Blackhawks. Harding is a highly regarded 23-year-old rookie, who stopped 37 Anaheim shots Sunday in his only start of the young season. He now has three shutouts in eight career starts.

Not only did Backstrom and Harding make Fernandez expendable -- he was traded to Boston over the summer -- they are threatening the NHL team mark for October shutouts. Since the NHL began scheduling October games 65 years ago, at the start the 1942-43 season, no club has posted more than three shutouts for the month. The Wild still have seven October contests remaining to notch No. 4, including Tuesday night’s showdown with the Kings in Los Angeles.

Teams have recorded three October shutouts 25 times since 1942-43. The first was the 1950-51 Toronto Maple Leafs, and both the San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils matched that total last season. The Wild, who allowed the fewest goals in the league a year ago and have given up just four in five games this season, have more than two weeks to set the new standard for posting zeroes in October.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

How about the Colorado Rockies bullpen in October? The Rockies relievers have allowed just two earned runs over 23 innings, and secured three of the club’s six postseason victories.

The only important run the pen has allowed was the ninth-inning tally scored on closer Manny Corpas Friday night, but after the blown save, the Rockies came through in the 11th. Colorado’s bullpen has given up just 13 hits and five walks, good for a .163 OBA and 0.78 ERA.

Surprisingly, there is another bullpen with a better postseason ERA and OBA than the Rockies’. Arizona’s relievers have allowed just a single earned run in six games, posting a 0.46 ERA and .134 OBA over 19.2 innings. They held the Cubs scoreless over 8.1 innings in the Diamondbacks’ first-round sweep.

That sole run given up by Arizona’s pen was a costly one, however, as the Rockies scored the winning run in the 11th inning Friday off closer Jose Valverde. No Colorado batter reached by hitting a ball beyond the infield, as Valverde allowed an infield single and two walks before coughing up a four-pitch walk to Willy Taveras for the winning run.

Although the Diamondbacks are on the brink of elimination, their 0.46 bullpen ERA currently is the lowest since the Texas Rangers pen didn’t allow a run in the 1998 playoffs. Of course, those Rangers went three and out in the Division Series to the New York Yankees, and the pen was called on to work just five innings.

Only two bullpens in the last 25 years have worked at least 10 innings and posted a better ERA than Arizona’s.

In 1997, Braves relievers held their opponents scoreless over 13.2 innings, though the club was bounced from the playoffs by the surprising Florida Marlins in the NLCS. The Diamondbacks’ fate, despite the work of the bullpen, doesn’t look much better.

In 1990, Cincinnati's pen allowed a single earned run over 31.1 innings, good for a 0.29 ERA. Those Reds, with Lou Piniella as their manager, swept Oakland in the World Series. Piniella was on the other end of a sweep this fall, as the Diamondbacks pen shut down the Cubs in Arizona's three victories.

While we’re giving shout outs to October bullpens, how about the work by Cleveland relievers Rafael Betancourt and Tom Mastny on Saturday night?

Both Boston and Cleveland were piling up runs in the early going, but Betancourt put an end to the Red Sox’s scoring with 2.1 innings of dominant work. With the score 6-6, the tide seemed to turn Boston’s way when Betancourt departed after the ninth inning, as David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell were due up in the 10th.

The Indians called on Mastny, who worked a 1-2-3 10th inning before his teammates put the game away with a touchdown and an extra point in the 11th. The 26-year-old rookie, who pitched brilliantly in stretches this season and poorly in others, turned in the biggest inning of his professional career.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In 2007, Cleveland and Boston ranked 1-2 in the American League, respectively, in starter ERA. At the same time, both clubs had potent offenses that averaged more than five runs per game. Something’s got to give when the American League Championship Series begin Friday night in Boston.

The saying goes that good pitching and solid defensive play prevail in the postseason, and that axiom will be challenged when the Red Sox and Indians go head-to-head with a berth in the 2008 Fall Classic on the line.

Boston’s bullpen has more depth than Cleveland’s, and the same may be said for the Red Sox rotation. The Red Sox look solid with Cy Young Award candidate Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka ticketed to pitch against the Indians. However, Cleveland’s 1-2 punch of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could steer the ALCS the Indians’ way if they are at their best.

Both hurlers have made 12 starts since Aug. 1, including their outings in the Division Series against the Yankees, and both have failed to work quality starts only twice in this span.

Sabathia is 7-1 with a 2.65 ERA in this stretch. One of those times he failed to record a quality start was the opener of the Division Series, when he worked five innings of a 12-3 win over the Yankees. Since the start of August, Carmona is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA. He’s on a streak of six consecutive quality outings, which has produced a 5-0 mark with a 1.62 ERA, and includes nine innings of one-run ball in Cleveland’s 2-1, 11-inning victory over New York in Game 2 of the series.

The ALCS is a big assignment for Sabathia and Carmona, who will face an explosive Red Sox lineup. It also works in Boston’s favor that these Red Sox are playoff-tested. Sluggers David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, catcher Jason Varitek, Schilling and Wakefield were instrumental to the 2004 club that overcame a 3-0 deficit to the Yankees in that year’s ALCS. And Beckett and Mike Lowell were critical to Florida’s World Series title in 2003.

That may give Boston the edge in the ALCS, but if Sabathia and Carmona can prevail over the Yankees offense, they certainly are capable of shutting down the Red Sox as well. No matter how the matchups play out, it may take seven games to decide which club moves on to the World Series.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 6:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The National League Championship Series features two NL West clubs for the first time since MLB added a division and an extra round of playoffs to each league in 1995. After squaring off 18 times during the 2007 season, it’s safe to say the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are very familiar with one another.

The Rockies claimed the season series with 10 wins, and they also outscored the Diamondbacks (86-72), batted 32 points higher and posted a 3.86 ERA that was a third of a run better than Arizona’s 4.20 mark.

The truth is, though, these teams are evenly matched on many levels. Both have among the lowest payrolls in the game, roughly $50-60 million each this season. Both clubs finished with 90 wins in 2007 and were built around young players they have developed in their farm systems.

That’s taken time. The Rockies, who hadn’t posted a winning record since 2000, lost 94 games in 2004 and 95 more in 2005. The Diamondbacks fell on hard times in 2004, losing a major league-worst 111 games just three years after upending the Yankees in the 2001 World Series. In 2006, Arizona and Colorado tied for last place in the NL West at 76-86.

The Rockies come into the NLCS having won 17 of their last 18 games. The only time they have lost in this stretch was Sept. 28 -- at the hands of the NL West champion Diamondbacks. That day, Arizona ace Brandon Webb outpitched Colorado’s No. 1 starter, Jeff Francis, for a 4-2 victory. And guess who starts Game 1 of the NLCS Thursday night. Yes, it will be Francis vs. Webb at Chase Field in Phoenix.

The kids have been getting it done in the postseason for both teams, from Baby Backs Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton to Kid Rocks Troy Tulowitzki, Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas. Despite the youth movement behind these two upwardly mobile franchises, perhaps Colorado’s senior citizen will be a difference-maker in the NLCS.

Rockies first baseman Todd Helton is making his first playoff appearance in his 12th big league season. Although the 34-year-old veteran was just 1-for-12 in the first round against Philadephia, he has a full season of experience over his career against Arizona, and the numbers are impressive.

Todd Helton vs. Arizona, Career

G. . . . AB. . . R. . . H. . 2B. . 3B. . HR. .RBI. . .BB. . . K. . AVG. . . . OPS
160. . 559. . 116. . 183. . 55. . . 3. . .29. .103. . 117. . 71. . .327. . . .1.040

Helton batted .375 against the Diamondbacks in 2007, going 24-for-64 with eight doubles, a homer and nine RBIs in 18 games. He also drew 16 walks, giving him a .500 OBP vs. Arizona pitching. In Phoenix, Helton batted .469 (15-for-32) with four doubles and a homer.

There is no major league pitcher who Helton would rather face than Arizona’s Livan Hernandez. The Rockies’ first baseman is 32-for-66 (.485) against the veteran right-hander -- the most hits he has facing any big league hurler -- and his resume includes 12 doubles, two home runs, 16 RBIs, 11 walks and a 1.315 OPS.

Helton also has fared well against Arizona’s ace. In 50 at-bats facing Webb, the D-Backs’ Game 1 starter, Helton has 15 hits (.300) with four doubles and two homers. And he’s not the only Colorado regular who has enjoyed success against Webb.

Most Valuable Player candidate Matt Holliday is 6-for-19 (.316) with a double, homer and four RBIs against Webb this season. Over his career, he is a .305 hitter (61-for-200) against Arizona, with 16 doubles, four homers and 35 RBIs in 54 games.

Right fielder Brad Hawpe has faced Webb more than any other big league starter, and he’s 13-for-38 (.342) with two doubles, four homers, 12 RBIs and a .763 slugging percentage against him. He’s batting .600 (9-for-15) with two doubles, three homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.333 slugging mark facing Webb in 2007.

Second baseman Kaz Matsui was 8-for-17 (.471) with three doubles this season with Webb on the mound. In 2007, Holliday, Hawpe and Matsui combined to hit .451 and slug .804 facing Arizona’s No. 1 starter, with 10 extra-base hits and 19 RBIs in 51 at-bats. Webb was 1-3 with a 5.77 ERA and .287 OBA in six starts vs. the Rockies this season, though his worst outings were early in the year.

The conventional wisdom is that you can throw out regular-season numbers in October. Yet, if the Rockies are able to carry over much of that success against Webb into the postseason, they may be on their way to their first World Series appearance in franchise history.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Since 1996 the University of Illinois has only seen three different individual 1,000 yard rushing seasons. In 2002 Antoineo Harris totaled 1,377 yards and in 1996 and 1997 Robert Hoclombe rushed for more than 1,200 in each season. Since 1996 only two players have put together a season with double digit rushing touchdowns, Robert Hoclombe and Rashard Mendenhall.

University of Illinois early success can be attributed to their ability to eat up both the clock and yards on the ground. Through the first six games more than 63% of Illinois yards have come from the ground attack. More than 60% of their first downs and 70% of touchdowns have also been produced by the running game.

Mendenhall has carried the rock 114 times for 772 yards and a 6.8 yard per carry average. He has been able to mix power and speed to dominate defenses with his longest carry being a 50 yard touchdown run versus Syracuse. Mendenhall is on pace to gain more than 1,544 yards this year and if Illinois is able to secure a bowl bid he might just reach 1,700 yards.

Posted by Ryan Warkins at 4:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Don't be fooled by the effeminate last name or slight build, Lilly is gonna come right atcha.

Most lefties who stand six-foot nothin', tip the scales at 190, and throw their fastball at an average speed of 88.4mph don't pitch like Ted Lilly. In fact, righties who stand 6'5'' and tip the scales at 230 don't pitch like Ted Lilly either. Nobody really does.

Lilly uses his repertoire in an inverse fashion that takes a lot of intestinal fortitude...and it's pretty awesome to watch. Facing mostly RHBs all year, Lilly pounds his 88.4 mph four-seamer inside like he throws 95mph, backdoors his short slider away, and then baits RHBs with changeups inside.

Lilly also favors his fastball as his out-pitch, and shows his curveball early in counts to set it up. (In two-strike counts, Lilly throws his fastball twice as often as his 2nd most frequent offering, his curveball.)

All of this is wildly atypical. About 19 out of 20 lefties are going to use their fastball away to RHBs in order to get ahead, and throw their changeups away and their breaking balls down-and-in to get Ks in two-strike counts.

Not so much for Lilly. The fact that his command has been magnificent all season has allowed him to get away with such an approach. There's a reason nobody else in the league pitches like Lilly: It's not very safe. But Lilly's used it to become the Cubs' most reliable pitcher this year, while, believe it or not, having only one above average WHIFF offering. However, it's the best one to have.

Ted Lilly WHIFF Breakdown

Fastball - .172 (MLB AVG .142)
Curveball - .195 (MLB AVG .273)
Slider - .141 (MLB AVG .302)
Changeup - .238 (MLB AVG .276)

Posted by Tom Koch-Weser at 4:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)

That’s the question after seeing the young Rockies secure the National League wild-card berth with 14 wins in their last 15 games, including a dramatic, come-from-behind victory over San Diego in Monday’s 13-inning tiebreaker. The Rockies then traveled to Philadelphia and claimed Game 1 of the NLDS Wednesday behind Jeff Francis, who had been roughed up and beaten soundly by the Phillies in the same ballpark three weeks ago.

Witnessing Colorado’s surge, it’s hard not to think of the 2004 Red Sox, who won seven of their last nine in the regular season, swept Anaheim in the Division Series and were absolutely unbeatable in the World Series after bouncing back from a 3-0 ALCS deficit to the New York Yankees. Or the 2005 White Sox, who closed with eight wins in their final 10 games of the regular season and won 11 of 12 postseason contests en route to their first World Series title since 1917.

But does a red-hot finish down the stretch usually result in postseason success? Not necessarily. Since 2001, 11 teams have finished the regular season with at least eight wins in their final 10 games. Among this group, the 2005 White Sox are the only club to go the distance.

One other team, the 2002 Giants, managed to reach the Fall Classic. They went on a 10-1 run to close out the season, but lost a seven-game Series to the Angels. In the NLCS, they bounced the Cardinals in five games.

Those Cardinals are one of the 11 teams to win at least eight of their last 10. They are one of four clubs who were eliminated in the LCS. The other three are the 2001 Mariners, who won 116 games during the regular season, the 2004 Astros, and the 2005 Angels, who lost to those world champion White Sox in five games.

That leaves five teams that failed to survive the first round of the playoffs.

The Oakland Athletics finished 29-4 in 2001 and 35-8 in 2002, closing with eight wins in their final 10 games both years. Yet, they were bounced from the playoffs in the Division Series after each season. In 2006, the Dodgers finished 9-1 and won their last seven games. Then they were swept by the Mets in Round 1.

What the Rockies have going for them that most of these clubs did not is that defining game: the stunning tiebreaker victory that has to be a substantial confidence-builder for the Kid Rocks.

The 2004 Red Sox had a few of them against the Yankees in the ALCS, and they swept the Cardinals in the World Series. The 2005 White Sox may have had theirs when A.J. Pierzynski reached base in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the ALCS against the Angels, courtesy of a debatable third-strike call by the home plate umpire. The game was tied 1-1 at the time, and the play sparked the Sox to the first of four straight wins over the Angels before they swept the Astros in the World Series.

There may be another defining game that will be critical to the Rockies, who will have to win a close contest or two to keep advancing. Will the magic and this wonderful storyline continue? Stay tuned.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Despite two losses to Milwaukee this weekend while in the driver’s seat for the NL wild-card berth, the San Diego Padres have to be the favorite going into Monday’s one-game tiebreaker in Colorado against the surprising, young Rockies.

It’s Cy Young favorite Jake Peavy against Rockies right-hander Josh Fogg. Sure, the Rockies have won 13 of their last 14 games, and Fogg has been dubbed the “Dragon Slayer” for beating other teams’ aces of late, but if you’re managing the Padres or most other 2007 playoff teams, Peavy is probably the guy you would want to pitch Game 7 of the World Series.

After all, Peavy leads the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts and quality starts. In his last 13 outings, he’s 10-1 with a 2.20 ERA. The one loss is the only time he has failed to work a quality start in this stretch. It’s the only time he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start.

Padres manager Bud Black faced a tough decision on Sunday. He could have called on Peavy to face the Brewers, but Peavy would have been pitching on three days’ rest. Peavy did that against Arizona on Sept. 5, with the Padres facing their final game of the season against their co-leaders in the NL West, and their ace in the midst of a 7-0 run in which he was as dominant as ever.

Peavy was roughed up for eight runs over four innings. He took that one loss -- his only loss in August and September -- and the Padres haven’t had a piece of first place since then.

On the other hand, Peavy has won his other two career starts on short rest and allowed a total of two runs in them. So, the question remains, should the Padres have gone for the jugular Sunday to avoid a one-game playoff in Colorado against a red-hot club?

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal suggested Monday that the Padres shouldn’t have gambled on Brett Tomko and a Milwaukee loss on Sunday. He believes they’ve already lost the gamble, no matter what happens on Monday night. Even if San Diego advances, Peavy will be out one day later before he can pitch in the Division Series. The earliest he would take the mound is Game 3, and his chance of pitching twice in the first round is out the window. That is, of course, if Peavy would have prevailed in Milwaukee Sunday. He hasn’t won there in three career starts.

Padres GM Kevin Towers told FOXSports.com that he supports Black’s decision. If Peavy wasn’t up to the task on three days’ rest Sunday, the Padres wouldn’t have their best pitcher working the biggest game of the season in Denver.

It’s hard to argue against Towers. Peavy is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA in six career starts at Coors Field. In a venue where teams have averaged 5.29 runs a game this season, Peavy may have the final word on this issue.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)