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Boston Looks to Complete Its Comeback in Game 7

The Boston Red Sox’s rebound from a 3-0 deficit to the New York Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series will be on everyone’s mind tonight, when Boston and Cleveland square off in Game 7 of the ALCS. The Red Sox have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit in the series to force a final game, and history is in their favor.

Fourteen times in postseason history a team has recovered from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series to play a Game 7. In 10 of those series, the team that bounced back to win Games 5 and 6 made it three straight to claim the series. The last team to surrender a three-games-to-one lead and still win Game 7 was the 1992 Braves, who advanced to the World Series when Sid Bream lumbered home on Francisco Cabrera’s series-clinching single against Pittsburgh.

Since then, there has been a pair of memorable comebacks from 3-1 deficits.

The Braves fell behind three games to one to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1996 NLCS, scoring just 12 runs in the first four games. They bounced back with 14-0 and 15-0 wins behind John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, respectively, victories that were sandwiched around a stellar outing from Greg Maddux, who worked a 3-1 win in Game 6.

The Florida Marlins recovered from being down three games to one in the 2003 NLCS, winning the final two games at Wrigley Field before advancing to the World Series and upsetting the Yankees. A guy named Josh Beckett blanked the Cubs in Game 5 of the NLCS to keep the Marlins alive, and he was just as dominant in beating Cleveland in Game 5 earlier this week. He struck out 11 in both LCS appearances, and wasn’t too shabby in the 2003 World Series, either.

The Red Sox have one of the more recent 3-1 comebacks in their history as well, when they fell behind three games to one to the California Angels in the 1986 ALCS. The Angels took a 5-2 lead into the ninth inning of Game 5, but Boston avoided elimination thanks to a two-run homer from Don Baylor, followed by a two-run shot by Dave Henderson off Donnie Moore, one of the more memorable home runs in Red Sox history. The Angels tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, lost in the 11th on a Henderson sac fly, and the Red Sox rolled in the final two games.

All of that means nothing Sunday night, though it’s hard to deny Boston’s momentum going into Game 7. Cleveland will have to start hitting again. The Indians batted .311 and averaged nearly seven runs a game in their first six playoff contests. In the last four, they are hitting .213 while scoring just 3.5 runs a game.

Cleveland has to make the most of facing Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. He usually worked on five days’ rest in Japan, and he pitches Game 7 after five days off. That would seem to work in his favor, as he was 5-7 with a 5.29 ERA on four days’ rest during the regular season, but 10-5 (3.80 ERA) with five or more days off.

Those numbers may mean little, however, with Matsuzaka pitching 214 innings so far in 2007. The rookie right-hander seems to have tired. Since recording four quality starts in a row July 24-Aug. 10, Matsuzaka has worked just two quality outings in his last 10 times out, including the postseason. In this stretch, he is 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA.

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