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Seven Games May Be Needed to Decide Red Sox-Indians ALCS

In 2007, Cleveland and Boston ranked 1-2 in the American League, respectively, in starter ERA. At the same time, both clubs had potent offenses that averaged more than five runs per game. Something’s got to give when the American League Championship Series begin Friday night in Boston.

The saying goes that good pitching and solid defensive play prevail in the postseason, and that axiom will be challenged when the Red Sox and Indians go head-to-head with a berth in the 2008 Fall Classic on the line.

Boston’s bullpen has more depth than Cleveland’s, and the same may be said for the Red Sox rotation. The Red Sox look solid with Cy Young Award candidate Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka ticketed to pitch against the Indians. However, Cleveland’s 1-2 punch of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could steer the ALCS the Indians’ way if they are at their best.

Both hurlers have made 12 starts since Aug. 1, including their outings in the Division Series against the Yankees, and both have failed to work quality starts only twice in this span.

Sabathia is 7-1 with a 2.65 ERA in this stretch. One of those times he failed to record a quality start was the opener of the Division Series, when he worked five innings of a 12-3 win over the Yankees. Since the start of August, Carmona is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA. He’s on a streak of six consecutive quality outings, which has produced a 5-0 mark with a 1.62 ERA, and includes nine innings of one-run ball in Cleveland’s 2-1, 11-inning victory over New York in Game 2 of the series.

The ALCS is a big assignment for Sabathia and Carmona, who will face an explosive Red Sox lineup. It also works in Boston’s favor that these Red Sox are playoff-tested. Sluggers David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, catcher Jason Varitek, Schilling and Wakefield were instrumental to the 2004 club that overcame a 3-0 deficit to the Yankees in that year’s ALCS. And Beckett and Mike Lowell were critical to Florida’s World Series title in 2003.

That may give Boston the edge in the ALCS, but if Sabathia and Carmona can prevail over the Yankees offense, they certainly are capable of shutting down the Red Sox as well. No matter how the matchups play out, it may take seven games to decide which club moves on to the World Series.

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