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Florida's Hermida, Not Maybin, is Good Bet for Breakout Season

A new rookie class is fun to watch, but breakout seasons are more often generated by young players with major league experience. Slugging is a good indicator of an up-and-coming player’s growth.

After all, first basemen Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder broke through with 50-homer seasons the last two summers. In 2007, Fielder stroked 50 home runs and slugged .618 for the Brewers to lead the National League in both categories.

Other than Fielder, no major leaguer 25 years old or younger last season -- with at least 250 plate appearances in both 2006 and 2007 -- posted a higher bump in slugging percentage than Florida’s Jeremy Hermida.

Biggest Increase in Slugging, 2006 to 2007
(players age 25 or younger in 2007 with min 250 PA in ’06 and ‘07)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2006. . . . . . . . . . . 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . .Diff
Prince Fielder, Mil. . . . . . . . . . .483. . . . . . . . . . . . .618. . . . . . . . . . . . . .135
Jeremy Hermida, Fla. . . . . . . . . .368. . . . . . . . . . . . .501. . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
Hanley Ramirez, Fla. . . . . . . . . ..480. . . . . . . . . . . . .562. . . . . . . . . . . . . .082
Aaron Hill, Tor. . . . . . . . . . . . . .386. . . . . . . . . . . . .459. . . . . . . . . . . . . .073
Corey Hart, Mil. . . . . . . . . . . . .468. . . . . . . . . . . . .539. . . . . . . . . . . . . .071

Hermida was a strong Rookie of the Year candidate in 2006, but his debut season was sabotaged by hip flexor and groin injuries. He missed the first month of 2007 with deep bone bruise in his right knee, but he stayed healthy from May on and put together a productive second season in the majors.

Hermida batted .338 and slugged .559 over the final three months, with 24 doubles and 12 homers in 80 games. He hit eight of his 18 home runs on the season in the final six weeks. The left-handed hitter finished the year at .296/.369/.501, and he may be good for a .300 average and at least 25 home runs in 2008.

A complete review of 2008's best breakout bets will be featured in Friday's edition of “Thom’s Take,” a season-long source of fantasy and prospect news provided as part of STATS Fantasy Advantage. SFA offers 2008 player projections, latest player injury info, team depth charts and more, all for the reasonable price of $19.95 for the entire season. Find out more or sign up at stats.com.

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