New closers emerge every summer. Often the newest members of the ninth-inning fraternity surprise us, but there’s a statistical indicator that frequently gives a clue as to which pitchers may take over closer duties.

That would be the hold. A pitcher gets a hold when he enters the game in a save situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game having never relinquished the lead. A player cannot finish the game and get a hold, nor can he get credit for a hold and a save in the same game.

Among the hold leaders who quickly emerged as a closer is future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera, who led the majors in holds in 1996 and saved 43 games for the Yankees in 1997. More recently, Tom Gordon was the holds leader in both 2004 and 2005 while in the Bronx. In 2006, Gordon signed with the Phillies and posted 36 saves. As a rookie in 2003, Brad Lidge ranked among the National League holds leaders, and he took over as Houston’s closer the next season.

So, the list of 2007 holds leaders could tip us off as to who may start collecting saves in 2008.

Most Holds, 2007

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .H
Brandon Lyon, Ari. . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Heath Bell, SD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
Jon Rauch, Was. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Derrick Turnbow, Mil. . . . . . . . . . .33

Jonathan Broxton, LAD. . . . . . . . . .32
Rafael Betancourt, Cle. . . . . . . . . .31
Scot Shields, LAA. . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Tony Pena, Ari. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

With Jose Valverde dealt to Houston over the offseason, Brandon Lyon is the favorite to take over the closer role for the Diamondbacks. The 28-year-old Lyon hasn’t pitched well this spring, so it’s conceivable other candidates will get a more serious look. That includes 26-year-old right-hander Tony Pena, who was good for 30 holds in his first full season in the majors a year ago.

The Dodgers have a budding closer in Jonathan Broxton, a 23-year-old coming off two terrific seasons with Los Angeles. The Dodgers have one of the best closers in the game in Takashi Saito, but he turned 38 in February. Broxton looks like his eventual successor. Saito has been bothered by a calf injury this spring, though he looked solid in his spring debut on Saturday.

Cleveland’s Joe Borowski led the American League in saves last season with 45, though he did it by collecting a disproportionate percentage of easy saves and posting a 5.07 ERA and .289 OBA. In time he may be replaced by Rafael Betancourt, who registered 31 holds in 2007.

Washington’s Jon Rauch led the majors with 88 relief appearances last season, and he ranked first among all Nationals pitcher with eight wins. He was a key reason Washington’s bullpen was more successful than in 2006. Nats closer Chad Cordero could be trade bait when the team falls out of playoff contention this summer, which might give the 6-foot-11 Rauch the job.