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Dodgers, Red Sox Face Long Odds, But Recent LCS Comebacks Offer Hope

Although trailing three games to one in a League Championship Series isn’t an enviable position, it isn’t a guarantee that a team’s season is over. After all, it was just four years ago that the Yankees won the first three games of the ALCS before losing four straight to the Red Sox, who went on to claim their first World Series title in 86 years.

So, there’s certainly precedent for a Dodgers turnaround or another miracle finish by the defending World Series champions.

In fact, the Red Sox rebounded from a 3-1 deficit as recently as a year ago, when they won the ALCS opener at home before losing three in a row to Cleveland. On the verge of elimination in Game 5, Boston’s bats came alive on the road and the Red Sox claimed a 7-1 win behind eight strong innings from Josh Beckett. Boston outscored Cleveland 30-5 over the final three games to advance to the World Series.

In the history of the best-of-seven LCS, teams trailing 3-1 have bounced back to win the series six times in 26 tries. The Dodgers and Red Sox have to be inspired by the recent trend of comebacks. Three of them have taken place in the last five years, as the 2003 Marlins also turned the trick, rebounding against the Cubs before upsetting the heavily favored Yankees in a six-game World Series.

All three teams to come back from a 3-1 deficit since 2003 have won the World Series, but both the Dodgers and Red Sox have difficult LCS assignments to worry about before giving the World Series any thought.

In Wednesday’s Game 5, the Dodgers face Phillies ace Cole Hamels, who is 4-2 with a 2.43 ERA in his last nine road starts and has looked terrific in both of his postseason outings. The southpaw has allowed more than two runs only once in his last 10 starts.

On Thursday, the Red Sox will face Rays lefty Scott Kazmir, who has posted a respectable 3.62 ERA and fanned more than a batter an inning in 21 regular-season starts against Boston. In 2008, however, Kazmir has just one quality start in five outings facing the Red Sox, including a rough night in Game 2. He has a 9.27 ERA and .323 opponent batting average in those five starts.

By no means does that mean the Red Sox will have an easy time against the Rays in Game 5. They’ve been outscored 31-15 in the series, and they’ve batted just .232. With runners in scoring position, they are 6-for-34 (.176). Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Varitek have combined to go 0-for-24, and sluggers David Ortiz and J.D. Drew together are 3-for-27. Ortiz has a triple, which is his only hit and the only extra-base hit recorded by him or Drew.

With Boston's season on life support, perhaps it's a bad omen that the Citgo sign beyond Fenway Park's left-field wall was damaged by a small fire on Wednesday. If the Red Sox and Dodgers fail to push their series beyond five games, it will be a baseball-free weekend -- a first taste of what baseball fans face for the next few months.

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