The New England Patriots have won each of the last five AFC East titles, often handily, but that streak is on the line when they play at Buffalo Sunday. At 10-5, the Patriots are tied with the Miami Dolphins for first place in the division, and losing to the Bills could leave them out of the playoff picture all-together.

If history counts for something, the Patriots look like the obvious winner Sunday, with an NFL-best 31-6 record in December over the last eight seasons and 10 consecutive victories over Buffalo. In seven of those 10 wins, the Pats have scored more than 25 points. The Bills have never tallied more than 17 points in any of their 10 losses, and the margin of defeat has been two or more touchdowns on seven occasions. The numbers tell the story:

Patriots vs. Bills, Last 10 Meetings

. . . . . . . . . . . . . NE. . . . . .Buf
Wins. . . . . . . . . . 10. . . . . . .0
Points/Gm. . . . . .30.8. . . . . 9.6
Rush Yds/Gm. . . 141.5. . . . .83.8
Pass Yds/Gm. . . .244.7. . . . 154.2
Total Yds/Gm. . .386.2. . . . 238.0
Turnovers. . . . . . 11. . . . . . 26

Buffalo’s 20-10 loss to New England on Nov. 9, in Foxborough, was one of the closer games the teams have played in this stretch. The 7-8 Bills started the season by winning five of their first six games, but their subsequent slide was picking up steam when the Patriots shut down the Buffalo offense in Week 10. A key contributor for the Pats was undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who ran for 105 of his 275 rushing yards on the season in the win.

The Bills have lost seven of nine games going into the season finale, and the Patriots have won 11 straight December contests, but New England’s ticket to the postseason requires more than a win in Buffalo. Even if the Pats beat the Bills, they need the Dolphins to fall to the Jets later on Sunday to once again rule the AFC East, as Miami holds the tiebreaker for the division crown.

There’s also a wild-card berth up for grabs, in case Miami beats the Jets, but the 10-5 Pats must win and the stumbling Jaguars must beat the 10-5 Ravens. If the Patriots win and neither Miami nor Baltimore loses, they would become just the fifth 11-win team in NFL history to miss the playoffs. They would join the 1985 Denver Broncos as the only two clubs in the last 40 seasons to win 11 and go home.

On top of that, missing the playoffs would be a first for the Patriots since going 9-7 in 2002. They bounced back to win the first of back-to-back Super Bowls the next season.