WHIFF PROFILE: AARON HEILMAN
On Wednesday, the Mariners and Cubs brokered a three-player deal involving one of the biggest trading chips of the offseason, Aaron Heilman. His stock bottomed-out following a tumultuous 2008 season, when he and the rest of the Mets bullpen seemed destined to fail every time out. Heilman finished with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, allowing 38% of inherited runners to score.
One ugly season aside, Heilman has always been an effective reliever with the ability to spot a few starts. The former 1st-round pick is unquestionably talented, with a plus arm and stuff that jumps off the pages of the WHIFF charts:
Pitch..........MPH.......WHIFF.....InK%....SLG%....%tile (WHIFF)
Fastball..... 93.387.... 0.185....... 0.48....0.453.....80
Slider........ 84.155.... 0.481....... 0.42....0.195.....97
Change......83.713.....0.422....... 0.33....0.462.....90
Those are WHIFF-rate percentiles of 80, 97, and 90, respectively. It is very, very rare for any pitcher to feature their entire repertoire in the upper quartile, let alone have two pitches in the top 10 percent. Heilman's bread-and-butter has always been his fastball-changeup combo, but it would've been difficult to predict his slider (a pitch he rarely threw in previous seasons) developing into killer (.195 SLG% against). The .481 WHIFF rate puts it only a couple spots below the gold standard sliders of Brad Lidge (.509) and Joba Chamberlain (.506).
Breaking down Heilman's repertoire a little further, we see there are some blemishes beneath the swing-and-miss allure. Heilman is consistently pitching outside of the strikezone. The InK% (In-Strikezone rate) of each of his pitches is below league average. Usually, a leading indicator of a breakout season is a newfound killer pitch with a strong InK%. It's safe to say Heilman has the killer pitches, but he's depending on hackers to chase them, rather than attacking within the zone.
Heilman does, however, compare very favorably with a guy who is now his teammate, Ryan Dempster. Like Heilman, Dempster was in starter/reliever limbo heading into last year, carrying the same "unreliable" tag after a rather disastrous season in relief. Both throw essentially the same three pitches (Dempster throws a unique split-change hybrid), with similar WHIFF structure:
Ryan Dempster - 2007
Pitch..........MPH.......WHIFF.....InK%....SLG%....%tile (WHIFF)
Fastball..... 92.041.... 0.127.......0.48....0.519.....38
Slider........ 86.326.... 0.316.......0.47....0.356.....53
Splitter.......83.156.....0.520.......0.31....0.218.....99
Like Heilman's slider in '08, Dempster's splitter shot to the top in '07. He threw this pitch close to 600 times in '08, allowing him to neutralize LHBs over the course of 206.2 innings. Heilman has the same weapons to get hitters out from both sides of the plate if he gets a crack at starting this season.
It's up to the Cubs. Many baseball observers have noted Heilman's delivery--specifically, his high elbow inversion and near-sidearm angle--as major handicaps to becoming a successful innings-eater.
Heilman, at the very least, can be an adequate swingman. He's got the change of scenery he wanted, now we'll see about the results. WHIFF says his 2009 campaign is a real good bet to look more like his 2005-2007 seasons than the one he had in '08.
Comments
interesting stuff, as a cubs fan makes me feel a little better about acquiring him...but still not great
Posted by: PHIL | January 30, 2009 4:38 PM
from a Mets fan: he was hurt last yr. and didn't make it public. he will be good for u guys, more like before last yr.
Posted by: chris | January 30, 2009 4:45 PM
from a Mets fan: he was hurt last yr. and didn't make it public. he will be good for u guys, more like before last yr.
Posted by: chris | January 30, 2009 4:45 PM
from a Mets fan: he was hurt last yr. and didn't make it public. he will be good for u guys, more like before last yr.
Posted by: chris | January 30, 2009 4:45 PM
from a Mets fan: he was hurt last yr. and didn't make it public. he will be good for u guys, more like before last yr.
Posted by: chris | January 30, 2009 4:46 PM
Gutlessness personified. Puts up good looking stats but don't put him in the game if it's only 1 or 2 run lead. He'll give up the killing HR for you as surely as he has every season since Molina traumatized him in 06
Posted by: Furioso | January 30, 2009 5:50 PM
Gutlessness personified. Puts up good looking stats but don't put him in the game if it's only 1 or 2 run lead. He'll give up the killing HR for you as surely as he has every season since Molina traumatized him in 06
Posted by: Furioso | January 30, 2009 5:50 PM
Don't be fooled by him. I watched him for many yrs. He gives up too many hr and cannot be trusted in tight situations. He has the ability to blow a big lead. He can look impressive with a batter here and there but never consitant. why do people think he can be a starter or spot starter? he never proved to be a good starter and I can't remember him pitching more than two innings in a game since becoming a reliever. In fact if he pitches a second inning, it's that same excuse why he gave up the lead.
Posted by: Not heilman | January 30, 2009 7:03 PM
I like the acquisition of Heilman as a Cubs fan. With what I've heard from Mets fans and the stuff he has, I hope he is our fifth starter. But I'm also the guy who doesn't see the need to take on Peavy and his contract and potential injury issues! Peace out, All
Posted by: Jutter | January 30, 2009 7:49 PM
As a die hard Mets fan I have to admit I was at times hard on Heilman. Some of his troubles have been due to the way he was used. He has good stuff but as the story implies lacks control. This prevemts him from making a pitch when he needs it. He is a good gamble but the odds are long. And if you think he is a starter your looney. Watch his walk numbers if he is a starter
Posted by: Geoff | January 30, 2009 9:25 PM
From what Mets fans have you heard something good about Heilman? They've watched '08 with their eyes closed. Furioso is right--Heilman is a magician--he tends to disappear. He will amaze you with one batter and then throw nine straight pitches out of the strikezone, let up a double and then let up the longball. Of course, he'll get the third out with a strikeout, leaving you scratching your head (and banging it against the wall). As for Peavy, that has to be the best contract-to-performance deal in baseball. He is egregiously underpaid (relative to baseball salaries, obviously). I think his base salary for '09 is $8m.
Posted by: AnsweredPrayers | January 30, 2009 9:45 PM
Bring him on. This guy grew up a Cub fan and is excited about the change of scenery that he got. I think working with Rothschild will be a huge plus for him. You'll see a lot more sliders next year and should result in more ground balls and less long balls. Between Heilman and Marshall why should the Cubs add Peavy. Contract is fine, but trade cost is too high. Plus take Peavy out of Petco and into the friendly confines and his numbers will be like his road numbers last year all year!
Posted by: J Hall | January 30, 2009 10:00 PM
Aaron needs to rely on that first pitch strike. Rick Peterson had him dancing on the black.Aaron can be a very effective power pitcher if given the chance. Peterson in my estimation is to blame for his ineffectiveness.
Posted by: MrMet | January 31, 2009 9:54 AM
Thos people on the rooftops outside Wrigley better wear chest protectors for their own safety when the Cubs bring in Heilman with the rockets the opponents will be hitting off this clueless pitcher
Posted by: Trolley Car | January 31, 2009 11:09 PM
as a Cubs fan.....this trade sucked! What in the hell is Hendry thinking?!??!
2 for 1...we give up a 26 yr utility IF and a YOUNG, LHP for HEILMAN?!?!? and to make room to sign BAKO?!?!?
YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME?!?!? There were talks of CEDENO for HEILMAN. So, we threw in OLSEN to sign BAKO......and there goes our leveraging chance for PEAVY since SD was interested in OLSEN.
HEILMAN is another 2008 version of HOWRY.
Posted by: Nick | February 1, 2009 1:05 AM
haha heilman is garbage and seattle didnt realize they got him until he showed up on their doorstep asking to be a starter, so they got rid of him and now he is gonna be the cubs problem. Sorry to all cubs fans out there but your bullpen is no longer safe with him in there
Posted by: GetRidOfHeilman | February 1, 2009 9:34 AM
I've listened to the know-nothings who do not see the bigger picture with Aaron. How about we just let the guy get into camp & either prove he is the starter he wants to be or needs to be in the pen. I'm quite sure he'll be an asset either way.
Posted by: Rich | February 13, 2009 2:32 PM