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Reds Can't Over Rely on Volquez, Cueto

The good news is: the Reds bullpen is 8-for-8 in converting saves. Cincinnati is the only club without a blown save.

The bad new is: the Reds bullpen has worked just 82 innings this spring, and only six major league pens have pitched fewer frames.

That means Reds skipper Dusty Baker is following his career-long managerial tendency of sticking with his starters through high pitch counts. Wouldn’t you know, three Reds starters rank among the top 25 ERA qualifiers for most pitches thrown per game.

Pitches Thrown per Game by Reds Rotation
(number in parentheses is MLB rank among ERA qualifiers)

Starter. . . . . . . . . . . Age. . . . . .Pitches/G
Edinson Volquez. . . . . 25. . . . . . 103.8 (16)
Johnny Cueto. . . . . . .23. . . . . . .102.4 (23)
Aaron Harang. . . . . . .30. . . . . . .102.3 (24t)
Bronson Arroyo. . . . . 32. . . . . . . .91.2 (84)

Overworking the youngsters has to be a concern.

Edinson Volquez has seen a steady rise in his innings over the last four seasons, from 138.0 in 2005 to 154.0 in 2006. He worked 178.2 innings in ’07 and reached his single-season high of 196.0 in his first season with Baker. Volquez’s second-half numbers a year ago suggest he wore down. He did average 102.6 pitches a game, and only 14 ERA qualifiers averaged more in 2008.

Cueto, who turned 23 in February, made his pro debut in 2005, pitching 49.0 innings, mostly in rookie ball. He jumped to 138.0 in Class-A ball in 2006, and followed with 171 innings in the high minors in 2007 and 174.0 for Baker last season. He averaged a more sensible 97.9 pitches per game.

Keeping the Reds out of the National League Central race might be the best thing for Cincinnati’s top two starters. In 2003, when Baker rode a young Cubs rotation to the NLCS, three of his youngest starters ranked among the top eight in total pitches thrown, including playoffs.

Kerry Wood, who turned 26 that June, was the only major league hurler to surpass 4,000 pitches for the season (4,007). Fifth on the leader board was Mark Prior, who turned 23 that September. He was good for 3,770. Ranked eighth was Carlos Zambrano (3,722), and he was the youngest at 22. The only pitcher in the top 15 who was as young as one of these guys was Oakland’s Barry Zito.

Zambrano was the horse of the bunch, never breaking down and making his first trip to the disabled list last season. The DL has been a chronic habit for Wood and Prior since the Cubs lost the sixth and seventh games of the NLCS to the Marlins in 2003. And Zito, who worked more than 200 innings in six straight seasons with the A’s before signing with the Giants before the 2007 campaign, isn’t the same pitcher at age 30.

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