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Second Time Through Lineup Critical for Pitchers, Too

A second trip to the plate is a hitter’s chance to make adjustments to the pitches and pitch sequences he and his teammates saw over the opening innings of a game. The second time through the batting order is a key battleground for pitchers as well. What worked the first time may not work the second, as the following pitchers have learned over the first two months of the season.

Opponent Hitting Percentages, 1st & 2nd Time through Batting Order, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1st Time. . . . . . . . . 2nd Time
Ricky Romero, Tor. . . . . . .143/.167/.229. . . . . . .412/.444/.706
Dontrelle Willis, Det. . . . . .194/.286/.323. . . . . . .394/.417/.576
Brian Moehler, Hou . . . . . .273/.344/.309 . . . . . .389/.400/.630
Paul Maholm, Pit. . . . . . . .167/.222/.214. . . . . . .375/.432/.463

Carl Pavano, Cle . . . . . . . .235/.267/.353. . . . . . .373/.429/.587
John Lannan, Was. . . . . . .213/.292/.250. . . . . . .368/.442/.697
Vicente Padilla, Tex . . . . .145/.264/.210. . . . . . .355/.437/.435
David Purcey, Tor. . . . . . .194/.341/.333. . . . . . .351/.444/.595

Among this group, no one has been stingier in the first inning than Toronto rookie Ricky Romero, who has just returned from a three-week stay on the disabled list and a brief stint in the minors. With the Jays, he has limited hitters to one hit in 13 at-bats without a walk in the opening frame. The left-hander has succeeded until opposing hitters get another look at him. Then he has trouble recording outs and hitters show considerably more power.

The other pitcher in the group who has been especially effective getting his first three outs of a start is Romero’s teammate, David Purcey. Opponents are 2-for-17 against the right-hander in the first inning, which includes a two-run homer to the Royals’ Jose Guillen on April 27. Purcey allowed three home runs that day to earn a demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. He worked a quality start in his 2009 debut, but failed to work six innings in his next four outings. Getting through the batting order a second time with little damage was problematic.

Opposing hitters are batting .366 against Houston’s Brian Moehler after the first time through the lineup. That mark was even higher before the veteran right-hander scattered seven hits and allowed a single run in a complete-game victory over Pittsburgh Friday night.

There’s a pattern here. Lengthy outings aren’t common for these guys. When they’ve managed to survive the second time through the batting order, they usually have pitched well enough to post lower opponent hitting percentages the third time through the order. Not surprisingly, the sample size for the third time around is smaller.

It’s more difficult to make sense of those pitchers who have improved markedly the second time they have seen hitters in a game. There’s often more at play than solving the opponent. All pitchers have days when they don’t have a pitch working at the start of an outing, and they have to battle until they regain a feel for it. This scenario is more often likely to plague soft-tossers and inexperienced pitchers trying to establish themselves in the majors.

If we isolate the pitchers who show substantial improvement between the first and second time through the batting order in 2009, rookies and less-experienced hurlers are prominent on the list.

Opponent Hitting Percentages, 1st & 2nd Time through Batting Order, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1st Time. . . . . . . . . . 2nd Time
Matt Palmer, LAA. . . . . . . . .345/.449/.638 . . . . . . .098/.127/.098
Randy Wolf, LAD . . . . . . . . .244/.296/.467 . . . . . . .133/.212/.222
Josh Outman, Oak. . . . . . . .267/.304/.427 . . . . . . .148/.278/.311
Joba Chamberlain, NYY . . . .373/.427/.597. . . . . . . .185/.375/.370
Glen Perkins, Min . . . . . . . .406/.431/.609 . . . . . . .196/.274/.250

Roy Halladay, Tor. . . . . . . . .266/.303/.426 . . . . . . .198/.222/.260
Barry Zito, SF . . . . . . . . . . .247/.313/.479. . . . . . . .203/.321/.232
Kyle Davies, KC . . . . . . . . . .293/.393/.427. . . . . . . .207/.258/.366
Aaron Harang, Cin . . . . . . . .291/.315/.500. . . . . . . .210/.281/.358
Mark Buehrle, CWS . . . . . . .293/.338/.507. . . . . . . .211/.275/.282

Angels rookie Matt Palmer, who started the year in the minors and was recalled on April 23, has allowed 20 earned runs en route to a 5-0 record and 4.06 ERA. Fourteen of those runs have been scored in the first two innings. After he gets through the batting order the first time, the 30-year-old right-hander has held hitters to a .133 average. Whatever the reason for his improvement as the game goes on -- gaining command of his pitches, altering his approach to accommodate a pitch he lacks, or making adjustments to hitters -- Palmer becomes more difficult to solve.

Twins southpaw Glen Perkins has had a similar experience this spring, giving up 19 of his 28 earned runs in the first three frames. Since working eight innings in each of his first three starts of 2009, and allowing a total of four runs in them, early rallies against him have made for a string of rough outings before he went on the DL with an elbow injury on May 19. For the season, Perkins has limited hitters to a .190 average after the first time through the lineup, but his team has been unable to rebound from early deficits.

Staff aces Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle are pitchers who are more capable of compensating for a missing pitch or making adjustments from batter to batter.

There are a host of others who have shown moderate improvement the second time through the batting order this spring. When the difference between the first and second time through the lineup is less significant, it’s nearly impossible to know if it’s a random happening, a matter of gaining better command as the game goes on, or a pitcher reacting to how hitters approached him the first time up.

Perhaps it’s not important. Any improvement as the game goes on, for whatever reason, is a good sign. Managers will be more taken by a pitcher who can recover from early trouble than one who can’t escape it after hitters have faced him once in a game.

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