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Volstad, Blanton Best at Navigating 3-0 Trouble

There’s another side of the 3-0 count covered yesterday -- the pitcher’s side. It’s a ticket for trouble to start 3-0 to a hitter, as all 2009 plate appearances that have gone that route have generated a .755 on-base percentage.

There are 39 major league hurlers who have opened with three straight balls to a hitter at least 20 times in 2009. Only two of them have walked less than half of their 3-0 batters, and Detroit’s Edwin Jackson has been the best at avoiding the walk, by a large margin. Only seven of his 21 batters faced were issued a free pass (33.3 percent). The other is Oakland’s Trevor Cahill, who has walked 13 of his 28 opponents (46.4 percent).

In Jackson’s 14 other 3-0 situations, however, he’s given up eight hits for a .571 OBA, including two doubles and a home run. Among the group of 39, only Washington’s Shairon Martis (.750, 3-for-4) and Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa (.667, 4-for-6) have allowed higher OBAs.

Cahill has found a better balance between Ball 4 and throwing a hittable pitch to avoid the walk. Opponents are 4-for-14 (.286) against him when they don’t get a free ticket to first.

Even better is the Phillies’ Joe Blanton. The right-hander has walked exactly half of the 20 batters against whom he opened 3-0. The other 10 are just 2-for-10 with a home run off him.

One tick better, and currently the best at keeping 3-0 batters off base, is Florida’s Chris Volstad. He’s walked 10 of his 20 batters faced and held the rest to a 1-for-10 performance.

The 22-year-old right-hander has allowed a .550 OBP that is the lowest among the 39 pitchers who have gone 3-0 at least 20 times. Next after Volstad is Blanton with a .600 OBP allowed. Cahill is third at .607.

In light of the major league-wide .755 OBP for hitters who started 3-0 in the count, keeping opposing hitters off base obviously gets far more difficult after missing the strike zone with the first three pitches. It’s nearly impossible to walk less than half of those hitters, and there’s no room for a mistake pitch while trying to recover from a rough start to a plate appearance.

A few, such as Volstad, Blanton and Cahill, have successfully executed plenty of pitches to get as many outs as they have against their 3-0 batters. On the other hand, starting 3-0 at least 20 times this spring suggests pitch execution could be better earlier in the count as well.

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