Matt Kemp has seen most of his 2009 plate appearances from the No. 7 spot in the Dodgers lineup. One might expect him to be batting higher in the order, considering he ranks second on the team to Andre Ethier in runs, home runs, extra-base hits, total bases and RBIs.

It’s unlikely manager Joe Torre will be making any significant changes to his lineup, however, since the Dodgers have the best record in the National League. And certainly Kemp’s production makes him one of the best No. 7 hitters in the game.

On the other hand, perhaps Kemp should be the Dodgers’ leadoff man. Yes, he’s a big run producer, but among his teammates who qualify for the batting title, he is first with a .371 on-base percentage.

There’s an even more convincing argument for putting Kemp at the top of the order. In 2009, no major leaguer is better at getting on base to open an inning. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances leading off an inning, Kemp tops the leader board with a .464 average (40-for-87). He’s also drawn 10 walks as the first batter, and his .515 OBP ranks first among this group, too.

Kemp won’t surface at the top of the order, of course, even though he’s a better fit for the job than Rafael Furcal and his .323 OBP. That mark is .305 since the All-Star break, but Torre isn’t likely to turn his lineup upside down.

It’s noteworthy, though, that the Dodgers as a team are the best in the National League at reaching base to open an inning. With Kemp leading the way in those situations, Los Angeles has the league’s highest team batting average (.293) and OBP (.353).

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Twice in Cincinnati’s 2-1, 10-inning win over San Francisco Thursday, Reds pitchers pitched out of trouble with a runner on third base and less than two outs.

In the seventh, with the score tied at one, Giants rookie Eli Whiteside opened the inning with a double and moved to third on a sacrifice by starter Matt Cain. Reds starter Aaron Harang worked his way of the jam by inducing an infield fly from Eugenio Velez and retiring Juan Uribe on a liner to center fielder Aaron Rowand.

The following inning, with Arthur Rhodes on the mound for the Reds, Pablo Sandoval delivered a one-out double and moved up on Randy Winn’s infield single. Rhodes ended the threat by getting pinch-hitter Edgar Renteria to ground into an inning-ending double play.

After dodging bullets in those two innings, the Reds won the game in the 10th on Drew Stubbs’ leadoff homer off Giants reliever Bob Howry.

For no reason that can be easily explained, the Reds have been better than all big league clubs at stranding runners at third with less two outs. In fact, only the Reds pitching staff has kept the runner from coming home via an RBI less than 50 percent of the time.

Cincinnati pitchers have faced that scenario 239 times in 2009, and have kept the runner from coming home via an RBI on 128 occasions. Cincinnati’s opponents have driven the runner home in just 46.4 percent of those situations. The next-best strand percentages with a man on third and less than two outs belong to the Arizona Diamondbacks (51.8), the St. Louis Cardinals (52.5) and New York Mets (52.9).

Not all that much has gone well for the Reds in 2009. It’s conceivable, though, that the staff’s success at stranding runners at third with less than two outs may have contributed to winning a few extra games.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee just keeps rolling along, making his case as the best trade-deadline acquisition of 2009. On Wednesday, the 6-foot-3 lefty pitched a two-hitter and tied a career high with 11 strikeouts in a complete-game, 8-1 victory over Arizona. He’s now allowed just seven earned runs in seven second-half start, and he’s got seven wins, a 1.09 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP to show for it.

Although Lee is just 11-9 on the season, a solid case can be made that he has been among the most dependable major league starters for the bulk of the 2009 campaign. That seemed like an unlikely scenario after Texas roughed up Lee for 10 hits and seven runs on Opening Day, and five days later, Toronto scored four runs in the first three frames off the former Cleveland ace. In his first two outings of the season, he had given up 11 earned runs in 10 innings, and hitters were batting .370 against him.

Four months later, Lee has a 2.72 ERA and a major league-leading 22 quality starts. They come in a stretch of 24 outings since the Rangers and Blue Jays greeted him rudely in the opening week. One might expect Lee to be among the major league leaders in wins, but the runs have rarely come in bunches for him.

In Lee’s 22 starts for Cleveland before he was dealt, the Indians were blanked or held to a single run while he was on the mound nine times. He turned in quality starts in six of those games, but was 0-5 with a no decision. After losing a pair of quality starts to close out the first half, he was 4-9 despite a respectable 3.47 ERA that ranked 13th among the American League’s ERA qualifiers. Among the 23 AL qualifiers with ERAs lower than 4.00 at the break, only Lee had fewer than six wins.

Lee has taken matters into his own hands since the All-Star break. He won his first three second-half starts for the hapless Indians, then showed why the Phillies made the right move in dealing prospects for him.

In four outings for the Phils, Lee has worked two complete-game victories and won his other two starts as well. The first complete game was in his National League debut on July 31, when the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner flashed no-hit stuff, held the Giants hitless into the sixth inning, and limited them to four hits and two walks in a 5-1 victory.

After going the distance again on Wednesday, Lee is 4-0 with an 0.82 ERA for the Phillies. He’s pitched 33 innings, allowed just 18 hits and six walks, and struck out 34. The unfortunate thing is, by changing leagues at the trade deadline, he’s unlikely to claim Cy Young honors in either one.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Wednesday night at Comerica Park, Detroit ace Justin Verlander was looking to tie Boston right-hander Josh Beckett and Yankees lefty CC Sabathia for the most wins among American League pitchers.

In search of his 14th victory, Verlander took the loss in Wednesday’s 3-1 defeat to Seattle, even as he struck out 10 Mariners over eight innings. Although the right-hander failed to gain a share of the league lead in wins, he did move into a tie for the major league lead in another category.

Wednesday’s loss was Verlander’s sixth start with double-digit strikeouts this season, tying him with Lincecum and Boston’s Jon Lester for the most double-digit performances.

Most Double-Digit Strikeout Performances, 2009

Justin Verlander, Det. . . .6
Tim Lincecum, SF . . . . . .6
Jon Lester, Bos. . . . . . . 6
Johan Santana, NYM . . . 4
Zack Greinke, KC. . . . . .4

Verlander built on his American League lead in strikeouts on Wednesday. He now has 194 for the season, creating some distance between himself and the Royals’ Zack Greinke (184) and Lester (176). Lester gets a chance to close the gap Thursday, when he faces the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Lincecum not only leads the majors with 207 strikeouts, he also has recorded the most strikeouts in a 2009 game. He fanned 15 Pirates in a complete-game, 4-2 victory on July 27. It was his second double-digit strikeout performance against Pittsburgh in 10 days, and he also whiffed 13 and 12 in consecutive outings against Arizona in mid-April.

Only Toronto’s Roy Halladay has struck out 14 batters in a 2009 start, when he went the distance in a 6-4 win over the Angels on June 2. Verlander has a pair of 13-strikeout performances. Lincecum has one, as do Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar and Johan Santana of the Mets.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound on Tuesday night with a string of seven consecutive quality starts, and the only major league pitchers with longer active streaks are Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (10) and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee (8).

During this seven-start stretch, Jimenez is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and .187 opponent batting average. Four of those seven outings have come at home, including Wednesday’s eight shutout innings of three-hit ball in an 8-0 blanking of the Pirates.

After winning his last three starts -- against the Reds, Cubs and Pirates -- the 25-year-old right-hander has pushed his career record to one win above the .500 mark. More importantly, he has shown steady improvement in his first three seasons of regular work in the majors.

Ubaldo Jimenez by Year, 2007-2009

Year. . . . .W-L. . . . . ERA. . . . .OSLG. . . .K/9 IP. . . BB/9 IP
2007. . . . .4-4. . . . . .4.28 . . . . . .404. . . . .7.46. . . . . 4.06
2008 . . . .12-12. . . . .3.99 . . . . . .348. . . . .7.79. . . . . 4.67
2009. . . . 10-9. . . . . 3.47 . . . . . .320 . . . . 7.96. . . . . .3.58

Jimenez’s strikeout rate has climbed steadily over this span. Although his walk rate ticked upward as well in 2008, he has put more distance between his strikeout and walk rates this season.

On Tuesday, Jimenez pitches in Washington, where he’ll attempt to cool off the red-hot Nationals. The Nats are on an 11-3 surge and have averaged nearly seven runs a game in their 11 victories.

Jimenez has tamed his hitter-friendly home, Coors Field, where he has been better in each of his three seasons. The difference is far less significant in 2009, as he’s 4-5 (3.60) away from home compared to 6-4 (3.31) at Coors. Still, his streak of consecutive quality starts faces a stern road test Tuesday night.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lefty Cliff Lee, who the Phillies acquired from Cleveland before the trade deadline, has given up a total of six runs in five second-half starts. All five have been quality outings, and he’s won all five and went the distance in three of them.

A case could be made that Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez is the majors’ most dominant hurler at the moment. His last loss was a 6-1 defeat to the Rangers on June 16. Since then, Rodriguez is 6-0 with a 1.35 ERA in nine starts. In seven outings since the start of July, Rodriguez has blanked three opponents and limited the other four to a single run each.

Lee and Giants ace Tim Lincecum lead the majors with 20 quality starts this season. After a solid outing against the Dodgers on Wednesday, the 25-year-old right-hander has 15 quality starts in his last 16 outings, dating to May 21 -- a stretch in which he’s 9-2 with a 1.55 ERA.

So, who do you think has the longest active streak of quality starts? Would you believe Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals?

Longest Active Streaks of Quality Starts, 2009

Adam Wainwright, StL . . . . .9
Cliff Lee, Cle-Phi. . . . . . . . .7
Brad Bergesen, Bal . . . . . . 7
Derek Lowe, Atl. . . . . . . . .7
Ubaldo Jimenez, Col . . . . . 7

It hasn’t been easy. Wainwright’s string dates to June 26, when he held the Twins to a pair of earned runs but lost a 3-1 decision at Busch Stadium. That’s how things have gone during the streak. The 27-year-old right-hander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his nine quality starts, but the Cardinals have failed to score more than a single run in four of them. As a result, he is just 5-3 during his streak, though with a 1.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Now 13-7 (2.73) for the season, Wainwright puts his quality-starts streak on the line when St. Louis hosts San Diego on Friday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Angels are 17-7 since the All-Star break, and only the 18-6 Yankees have a better second-half record. The Angels have outscored the Yankees since the break, however, averaging a major league-best 6.71 runs a game. That’s nearly a run better than any other club.

A key to the Angels’ success has been the team’s ability to execute with runners in scoring position. There are a few surprises among the second-half run producers, as second baseman Maicer Izturis leads all major leaguers with 19 post-break RBIs with runners in scoring position. He’s just one of a number of Angels who have come through in those situations.

Angels with RISP since All-Star Break

Batter. . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . H. . . . .2B. . . . .3B. . . . HR. . . . .RBI. . . . . AVG
Maicer Izturis. . . . . 21. . . . . .9. . . . . 0. . . . . .0. . . . . .4. . . . . .19 . . . . .429
Kendry Morales. . . .24. . . . . .9. . . . . 2. . . . . .0. . . . . .3. . . . . .17. . . . . .375
Bobby Abreu. . . . . .23. . . . .13. . . . . 3. . . . . .0. . . . . .0. . . . . .16. . . . . .565
Erick Aybar. . . . . . .26 . . . . . 8. . . . . 2. . . . . .1. . . . . .0. . . . . .14. . . . . .308

Izturis, who is hitting .331 since June 22, has a pair of four-RBI performances in August. What may be most surprising about Izturis’ recent surge are his four home runs in the second half, all with runners in scoring position.

Kendry Morales has 10 home runs and 26 RBIs in 20 games since the All-Star break -- both totals are the most in the American League -- and he drove in six runs with a pair of three-run homers off Twins pitching on Aug. 2. Like Izturis, Morales has been on his game with runners in scoring position.

Bobby Abreu is a .400 hitter since July 24, a span in which he has hit safely in 14 of 16 games. He’s scored 14 runs and driven in 14 over this stretch. With a .565 average with runners in scoring position since the break, Abreu has the highest mark among all big league regulars

Erick Aybar batted .414 in July. He’s cooled off a bit in August, but he’s still hitting .347 in the second half and has driven in 14 runs with runners in scoring position.

The Angels overcame a host of injuries to the rotation early in the season, thanks to solid contributions from others who weren’t expected to play key roles. The same has happened with Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter out, and it’s a credit to the likes of Izturis, Morales, Abreu and Aybar that the Angels have built a lead in the AL West without their star players.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Several young pitchers are in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors in 2009. Most of them, such as Rick Porcello, Jeff Niemann and J.A. Happ, can be found on nearly every top prospects list.

Each league, however, has a surprise candidate who has seemingly come out of nowhere to figure among the best pitchers of the 2009 rookie class.

In the American League, Toronto's Ricky Romero is 10-4 in 17 starts, and only eight AL pitchers have more wins in 2009. No major league rookie has more than the 24-year-old left-hander, who had struggled the previous three seasons in Double-A ball before making the Toronto roster this spring. His walk rate suggested he didn’t have the command to be a double-digit winner, but he, Porcello and Niemann all have 10 wins.

In the National League, the biggest surprise is the Cubs’ Randy Wells. The 26-year-old right-hander had improved steadily over three seasons with Triple-A Iowa prior to 2009, then took a huge step there this spring. After dominating in five Triple-A starts, Wells was recalled to start in Milwaukee on May 8, in place of the injured Carlos Zambrano. The rookie blanked the Brewers for five innings and never gave up his spot in the Cubs rotation.

As a result of his May arrival, Wells is a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA title and needs another start to reach the minimum. If the minimum is 100 innings pitched, Wells has the lowest ERA of the 2009 rookie class.

Lowest ERA among 2009 Rookies
(min 100 IP)

Rookie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IP. . . . . . . W-L. . . . . . .ERA
Randy Wells, ChC. . . . . . .102.1. . . . . . 8-4. . . . . . . 2.73
J.A. Happ, Phi. . . . . . . . .115.0. . . . . . 8-2. . . . . . . 2.74
Brad Bergesen, Bal. . . . . 123.1. . . . . . 7-5. . . . . . . 3.43
Ricky Romero, Tor. . . . . .109.2. . . . . 10-4. . . . . . . 3.53
Jeff Niemann, TB. . . . . . .114.1. . . . . 10-5. . . . . . . 3.62

Wells hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of his 16 outings, and he’s worked a dozen quality starts. Poor run support kept Wells from posting a “W” his first seven times out, but since then -- in nine starts since Jun 21 -- he is 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA.

As for Romero, he allowed a total of four runs in his first three major league starts in April before an oblique strain forced him on the disabled list for five weeks. He was roughed up and took two of his four losses in his first two outings after he returned. Since then, he’s 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 starts.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Statistics show the deck is stacked against major league hitters when they have two strikes, as they have a .186 two-strike average in 2009.

Facing Giants ace Tim Lincecum with two strikes almost guarantees a one-way ticket to the bench. Hitters are batting just .106 (33-for-312) against him, and that’s the lowest two-strike mark allowed by a starter who has faced at least 100 batters with two strikes.

Lowest Opponent Batting Average by Starters with Two Strikes, 2009
(min 100 batters faced with two strikes)

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . . . .AB. . . . . .OBA
Tim Linecum, SF. . . . . . . 312. . . . . .106
Edinson Volquez, Cin. . . . .92. . . . . .109
Yovani Gallardo, Mil. . . . .274. . . . . .113
John Maine, NYM. . . . . . 117. . . . . .120
Chris Carpenter, StL. . . . 179. . . . . .123

Lincecum’s success in two-strike scenarios is remarkable, as only Detroit’s Justin Verlander has faced more hitters with two strikes in 2009. The Tigers ace has recorded two strikes 379 times, compared to 330 for Lincecum. In those situations, Verlander has limited hitters to a .169 average (60-for-354).

After Verlander and Lincecum, next in garnering the most two-strike situations are Atlanta’s Javier Vazquez and Johan Santana of the Mets, both with 328 batters faced. Vazquez has held those hitters to a .157 mark (49-for-312), while Santana has a .164 opponent batting average (50-for-305).

Among relievers who have recorded two strikes against hitters at least 50 times in 2009, a rookie has the lowest OBA.

Lowest Opponent Batting Average by Relievers with Two Strikes, 2009
(min 50 batters faced with two strikes)

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . . . .AB. . . . . . . OBA
Jason Bulger, LAA . . . . . . 79. . . . . . . .076
Trever Miller, StL . . . . . . 50. . . . . . . .080
Evan Meek, Pit. . . . . . . . .82. . . . . . . .085
Luke Gregerson, SD . . . . .91. . . . . . . .099
Rafael Soriano, Atl. . . . . 111. . . . . . . .099

Retiring hitters after getting ahead in the count is a ticket to success as a reliever, and the Angels’ 30-year-old rookie, Jason Bulger, has done that in his first lengthy stint in the majors. Another rookie, San Diego’s Luke Gregerson, has been downright dominant after struggling in April. He’s also been remarkably successful in two-strike situations.

Not all major leaguers struggle with two strikes. There are three .300 hitters among players with at least 50 two-strike plate appearances. The highest average belongs to Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki, who is a .309 hitter on two-strike counts. He’s 58-for-188 with nine doubles and 13 RBIs.

Two-strike success has played a key role in the strong start of White Sox rookie Gordon Beckham. He’s 25-for-82 (.305) with 10 doubles, two home runs and 16 RBIs. The third .300 hitter in two-strike situations is Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury. He’s hitting .303 (57-for-188) with seven doubles, two triples and nine RBIs.

It’s Beckham who has the most RBIs of the trio, despite having fewer than half as many two-strike at-bats as Ichiro and Ellsbury.

The odds are stacked against a hitter even further when he’s 0-2. The major league average on an 0-2 count is .155 in 2009. If an 0-2 count is likely to make a hitter more defensive, that doesn’t seem to be the case for Toronto’s Marco Scutaro. The veteran shortstop is 11-for-24 with four doubles on 0-2 pitches. Among players who have completed at least 25 at-bats on 0-2 offerings in 2009, Scutaro’s .458 average is easily the highest in the majors.

Ichiro, whose 15 hits on 0-2 counts are the most in the majors, and Ellsbury have been successful on 0-2, as well.

Highest Batting Average on 0-2 Count, 2009
(min 25 PA on 0-2)

Hitter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . . . AVG
Marco Scutaro, Tor. . . . . .24. . . . . . . .458
Ichiro Suzuki, Sea. . . . . . . 42. . . . . . . .357
Bobby Abreu, LAA . . . . . . .33. . . . . . . .333
Jack Wilson, Pit-Sea . . . . . 33. . . . . . . .333
Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos. . . . . 35. . . . . . . .314
Yunel Escobar, Atl. . . . . . .35. . . . . . . .314

Posted by Thom Henninger at 8:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Whether it’s the North Side or the South Side, there’s no place like home for a pair of Chicago hurlers. Since the start of the 2008 season, both White Sox ace Mark Buehrle and Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster have won 18 games before the hometown fans. No other major league pitcher can match them in home victories.

Dempster has gone 18-4 with a 3.22 ERA at Wrigley Field during this 16-month stretch. He won 10 of 11 home starts to open the 2008 campaign, going 10-0 before losing the final game of the first half. He’s also won six of his last seven home decisions, with the only loss coming at the hands of the White Sox on June 17.

Buehrle also was 18-4 at home over this span before the Yankees roughed him up for seven runs in an 8-5 home loss Sunday. His last home start prior to the Yankees’ ambush was his perfect game against Tampa Bay on July 23. The perfecto was the southpaw’s 15th win in his last 16 decisions at home, dating to the 2008 All-Star break, a stretch in which he had a 2.32 ERA.

With Buehrle’s loss on Sunday, it’s Dempster who has the highest winning percentage among pitchers with at least a dozen home wins since the start of the 2008 season.

Highest Winning Percentage by a Pitcher at Home, 2008-09
(minimum 12 home victories in this span)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W-L. . . . Pct
Ryan Dempster, ChC . . . . . . 18-4. . . . .818
Nick Blackburn, Min. . . . . . .13-3. . . . .813
Jon Lester, Bos. . . . . . . . . .16-4. . . . .800
Tim Lincecum, SF. . . . . . . . .15-4. . . . .789
Kevin Slowey, Min. . . . . . . . 15-4. . . . .789
Mark Buehrle, CWS. . . . . . . 18-5. . . . .783

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s when Baltimore’s Brian Roberts is perched at second base that pitchers should pay the most attention to him. He has stolen 20 bases this season, and 11 of them have been steals of third.

Roberts and Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton share the major league lead with 11 steals of third in 2009, though Roberts is 11-for-11 while Upton has been caught once.

It’s Roberts who is the master of stealing third. Since the start of the 2005 season, he has swiped third base 60 times, the most in the majors.

Steals of Third Base, 2005-09

Player. . . . . . . . . . Steals
Brian Roberts. . . . . . 60
Juan Pierre. . . . . . . .52
Jose Reyes. . . . . . . .50
Ichiro Suzuki. . . . . . .39
Jimmy Rollins. . . . . . .36

The Orioles second baseman, who has been caught only five times in 65 attempts, has the highest success rate among all players who have at least 25 steals of third over this span. Only the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins can match his steal percentage.

Highest Steal Percentage of Third Base, 2005-09
(min 25 steals of third)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . .SB. . . . . .Att. . . . . . Pct
Brian Roberts. . . . . . .60. . . . . . 65. . . . . . 92.3
Jimmy Rollins. . . . . . . 36. . . . . . 39. . . . . . 92.3
Carlos Beltran . . . . . . 35. . . . . . 38. . . . . . 92.1
Juan Pierre. . . . . . . . 52. . . . . . 57. . . . . . 91.2
Ichiro Suzuki . . . . . . .39. . . . . . 43. . . . . . 90.7

All of these guys are adept at moving within 90 feet of home plate on their own, though Roberts is the best. If he reaches second base, he’s a good bet to take third.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)