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    <updated>2009-11-19T09:42:16Z</updated>
    
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<entry>
    <title>Greinke a Deserving Winner of AL Cy Young Vote</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1166" title="Greinke a Deserving Winner of AL Cy Young Vote" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1166</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-19T09:23:58Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-19T09:42:16Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Sixteen wins may not sound like a ticket to Cy Young honors, but the baseball writers got it right when they gave Kansas City ace Zack Greinke the American League award. The 26-year-old right-hander was 16-8 for the last-place Royals,...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>Sixteen wins may not sound like a ticket to Cy Young honors, but the baseball writers got it right when they gave Kansas City ace Zack Greinke the American League award. </p>

<p>The 26-year-old right-hander was 16-8 for the last-place Royals, who lost 97 games and shared the AL Central cellar with Cleveland. Greinke also posted a major league-leading 2.16 ERA, despite pitching in a home park that was the majors’ fifth most-friendly venue for runs scored in 2009, according to park factors at ESPN.com.</p>

<p>Greinke finished second in the AL, third in the majors, with 242 strikeouts, trailing only Detroit’s Justin Verlander (269) and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum (261). Neither league leader, however, could match Greinke’s 4.75 strikeout-walk ratio. The Royals ace walked only 51 batters in 229.1 innings, and among ERA qualifiers, he finished fourth in strikeout-walk ratio behind only Toronto’s Roy Halladay (5.94), Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks (5.87) and Atlanta’s Javier Vazquez (5.41). </p>

<p>As for those 16 victories, Greinke easily could have been a 20-game winner with a little more run support. In eight of his 33 starts, he allowed two or fewer runs but finished with a loss or a no-decision. Greinke gave up a total of eight runs in those eight outings, but was 0-2 with a 1.29 ERA in them.</p>

<p>In fact, among all ERA qualifiers in the AL, Greinke ranked fourth for the lowest run support per nine innings.</p>

<p><strong>Lowest Run Support per 9 IP among AL Pitchers, 2009</strong><br />
<em>(ERA qualifiers only)</em></p>

<p>Matt Garza, TB. . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.68<br />
Jarrod Washburn, Sea-Det . . . . . 3.94<br />
Edwin Jackson, Det. . . . . . . . . . 4.04<br />
Zack Greinke, KC. . . . . . . . . . . .4.20<br />
James Shields, TB . . . . . . . . . . .4.42<br />
Mark Buehrle, CWS . . . . . . . . . .4.43</p>

<p>Greinke easily won the Cy Young vote over the runnerup, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez. The 23-year-old right-hander was 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA that was second in the league only to Greinke’s mark. Hernandez posted his impressive ERA based out of Safeco Field, which ESPN.com ranked in the lower third of all major league parks for runs scored. </p>

<p>Like Greinke, Hernandez didn’t get the support that most of his AL peers received. The Mariners ace was ninth in the league for lowest run support, as he was given an average of 4.71 runs per nine innings, roughly a half-run more per nine than Greinke. </p>

<p>The hitting percentages allowed by Hernandez were ever so slightly lower than Greinke’s, but it was a matter of just a few hits. They finished 1-2 among their AL peers in both opponent batting and slugging, with Greinke posting the lowest opponent OBP in the league.</p>

<p>Greinke received 25 first-place votes from the writers to prevail over the league’s three 19-game winners. Hernandez garnered two first-place tallies, and Verlander, who was 19-9 (3.45) and finished a distant third in the balloting, had one. Yankees ace CC Sabathia, at 19-8 (3.37), was fourth in the vote.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Surprising Bengals Sweep Steelers</title>
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    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1165</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-16T04:55:44Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-16T05:13:50Z</updated>
    
    <summary>If beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cincinnati back in September didn’t convince you the Cincinnati Bengals are for real, maybe you’re a believer now. On Sunday, in a flurry of field goals, the Bengals defeated the Super Bowl champions in...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="NFL" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>If beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cincinnati back in September didn’t convince you the Cincinnati Bengals are for real, maybe you’re a believer now. </p>

<p>On Sunday, in a flurry of field goals, the Bengals defeated the Super Bowl champions in Pittsburgh, 18-12, to sweep the season series for the first time since 1998. </p>

<p>That’s right: <em>in Pittsburgh</em>, where the Steelers were 17-3 since the start of the 2007 season before Sunday’s showdown (19-4 if you include playoffs). Pittsburgh’s loss to the Bengals was the first at home to a divisional foe since both the Bengals and Ravens beat the Steelers at Heinz Field during the 2006 campaign.</p>

<p>Equally remarkable is Cincinnati’s series sweep. The Bengals and Steelers have been in the same division since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. In those 40 seasons together, Cincinnati has executed just eight sweeps. The Steelers have secured 15 sweeps, and the two teams split the other 16 two-game series. In 1982, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh met only once because of a labor dispute that shortened the schedule to nine games -- and the Steelers won that matchup.</p>

<p>With the win in Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Bengals improved to 4-0 on the road this season. Throw in a 14-0 shutout of the Browns in the final road game of the 2008 season, and the Bengals have won their last five contests away from Paul Brown Stadium. </p>

<p>It’s the first time in franchise history that the Bengals have won five straight road games. What makes the winning streak even more remarkable is Cincinnati’s 2-15 road record prior to the victory in Cleveland last December.</p>

<p>It’ll take that kind of extraordinary achievement and a few more surprises by the Bengals to ride their current success to their first Super Bowl appearance in 21 years. Last year’s Arizona Cardinals may provide inspiration to this year’s Bengals. </p>

<p>To their credit, the Bengals have shown they can beat the current champs, even in Pittsburgh, but a trip to the big game in February may mean a stop in Indianapolis and New England along the way. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Caps Backup Goalie Shines in Marathon Shootout Win</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1164" title="Caps Backup Goalie Shines in Marathon Shootout Win" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1164</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-12T08:41:24Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-12T08:54:12Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Washington Capitals have won three of four games since scoring leader Alexander Ovechkin was sidelined with a shoulder injury at the start of the month, though Wednesday’s 5-4 victory over the New York Islanders didn’t come easy. It certainly...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="NHL" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Washington Capitals have won three of four games since scoring leader Alexander Ovechkin was sidelined with a shoulder injury at the start of the month, though Wednesday’s 5-4 victory over the New York Islanders didn’t come easy.</p>

<p>It certainly was one to remember. After starting goalie Jose Theodore allowed three goals on five shots in the first seven minutes, the Caps bounced back from a 3-1 deficit for a dramatic shootout win. </p>

<p>Backup netminder Semyon Varlamov turned in a remarkable performance, stopping 25 of 26 shots through two-plus periods and overtime. Then he allowed only one goal in 11 rounds of shootout action. The 21-year-old Russian gave up a goal to New York’s Jeff Tambellini in the first shot of the shootout, but then didn’t let a puck get past him for 10 straight rounds. The Capitals prevailed when Chris Clark beat Islanders goalie Dwayne Roloson with a wrist shot.</p>

<p>Repeatedly the Islanders tried to deke Varlamov and beat him low, but he kept the puck out of the net with an impressive series of leg saves. In the ninth round, Islanders wing Trent Hunter snapped a quick shot that looked like it might sneak through the five-hole, but Varlamov trapped it between his pads and then used his arms to grab the crossbar to stop from sliding into the goal with the puck.</p>

<p>It was the second solid shootout performance by Varlamov this season. He kept the puck out of the net for three rounds of a 3-2 shootout victory over the Nashville Predators on Oct. 17. Varlamov has now been successful on 13 of 14 shootout attempts in 2009-10, and no goalie with at least half as many shootout attempts faced can match his save percentage.</p>

<p><strong>Highest Save Pct in Shootouts, 2009-10 Season</strong><br />
<em>(min seven shootout attempts faced)</em></p>

<p><strong>Goalie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ShO Att. . . . . .ShO GA. . . . . . . . Pct</strong><br />
Semyon Varlamov, Was. . . . . . . . . 14. . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . 92.9<br />
Martin Brodeur, NJ. . . . . . . . . . . . 9. . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . 88.9<br />
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit. . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . 87.5<br />
Ray Emery, Phi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9. . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . . 77.8<br />
Three goalies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8. . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . .75.0	<br />
</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Plenty of Attractive Type B Free Agents Available this Winter</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1163" title="Plenty of Attractive Type B Free Agents Available this Winter" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1163</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-10T19:31:09Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-10T19:32:38Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports was quick to wade through the Elias player rankings, which were released Monday by the players’ union and determine draft-pick compensation for free agents. Rosenthal assembled a list of the key Type A and Type...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports was quick to wade through the Elias player rankings, which were released Monday by the players’ union and determine draft-pick compensation for free agents.</p>

<p>Rosenthal assembled a list of the key Type A and Type B free agents in search of work this winter, a distinction that often is the difference in whether draft picks must be relinquished when signing a player. </p>

<p>Teams must forfeit draft picks in order to sign Type A free agents that have been offered arbitration by their current clubs, a factor that will make some of them less attractive to potential bidders. Many teams, especially those in small and mid-sized markets, place a high value on their draft picks. And in these economic times, fewer teams are likely to participate in bidding wars for Type A free agents, as losing picks adds to the cost.</p>

<p>A few Type A free agents coming off less-stellar years may endure a long wait before signing a contract that probably will be less lucrative than the one that has just expired. They include Cubs reliever Kevin Gregg, Dodgers second baseman Orlando Hudson and White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye. It’s likely, however, that their old teams won’t offer arbitration, alleviating the need for any suitor to part with a draft pick.</p>

<p>Many of the Type B free agents will be more attractive to clubs that are in shopping mode over the winter, as no draft picks must be surrendered to sign them. Rosenthal identifies the key Type B guys as Vladimir Guerrero, Andy Pettitte, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Nick Johnson, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis and Fernando Rodney. </p>

<p>Other free agents who do not involve draft-pick compensation, according to Rosenthal, are World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, Pedro Feliz, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Jarrod Washburn, Aubrey Huff, Brad Penny and Kelvim Escobar. </p>

<p>For now, general managers are focused on trades. That’s not solely because the free-agent marketplace has yet to open for business. It’s also a byproduct of the economic times. </p>

<p>Teams are busy seeing what kind of improvements they can make before the dollars start to fly. General managers are looking for less expensive options via the trade route, and a host of players may change teams before the free agents go on the market.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>NFL Cardinals Winning on the Road</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1162" title="NFL Cardinals Winning on the Road" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1162</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-09T22:07:12Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-09T22:07:55Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the NFL’s worst road teams for years. Since the franchise moved to Arizona in 1988, it has a 47-125 regular-season record away from home. Even during their run to the first Super Bowl...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="NFL" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the NFL’s worst road teams for years. Since the franchise moved to Arizona in 1988, it has a 47-125 regular-season record away from home. Even during their run to the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history last year, the Cardinals were 3-5 on the road during the regular season.</p>

<p>Going into the 2009 season, the Arizona-era Cardinals had never won more than two consecutive road contests. Perhaps the sign of a road turnaround came in Arizona’s 2008 divisional playoff game in Carolina last January, when the Cardinals defeated the Panthers to advance to the NFC championship game. </p>

<p>When the Cardinals throttled the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday, 41-21, it was their fifth straight road win going back to that playoff victory at Carolina. They have gone 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 123-58 en route to victories over the Jaguars, Seahawks, Giants and Bears.</p>

<p>It’s been a long time since the Cardinals have experienced that kind of road success. They haven’t won three road games in a row since 1987, their final year in St. Louis, and the last four-game winning streak was in 1982. Neil Lomax quarterbacked those St. Louis teams. </p>

<p>You have to go back to 1975 to find the last time the Cardinals pulled off five consecutive wins away from home, including playoffs. That streak came in the Jim Hart era. </p>

<p>Now if only the 2009 Cardinals could do something about that 1-3 record at home. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Yankees Upend Defending World Series Champs</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1159" title="Yankees Upend Defending World Series Champs" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1159</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-06T01:24:19Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-06T01:38:47Z</updated>
    
    <summary>When the New York Yankees secured their 27th World Series title with a 7-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, it was eight years to the day that Luis Gonzalez delivered a broken-bat single off Mariano Rivera in the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>When the New York Yankees secured their 27th World Series title with a 7-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, it was eight years to the day that Luis Gonzalez delivered a broken-bat single off Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2001 Fall Classic. That hit gave the underdog Arizona Diamondbacks the championship, but last night, the future Hall of Fame closer was on the mound for the final out of the baseball season, as the Yankees won their first World Series in nine years. </p>

<p>It was the fourth time Rivera had closed out a Series-clinching victory for New York. Although Rivera worked 5.1 scoreless innings against the Phillies, the rest of the Yankees pitching staff had given up 11 home runs, 23 extra-base hits and a lofty .464 slugging percentage in the six-game affair. Surprisingly, Philadelphia posted better power numbers across the board than New York, but Rivera’s teammates repeatedly came through with the big hit in key situations. </p>

<p>The Yankees topped the Phillies by batting .302 with runners in scoring position, driving in 21 runs in 43 at-bats. World Series MVP Hideki Matsui was 3-for-3 with four RBIs in those situations. He tied a major league record with six RBIs in Wednesday’s Game 6, delivering a two-run homer in the second inning, a two-out two-run single in the third, and a two-run double in the fifth. If it wasn’t already a perfect night for Matsui, only a two-run triple could have made it better. His Game 6 performance matched the six RBIs recorded by long-time Yankees second baseman Bobby Richardson in Game 3 of the 1960 World Series. </p>

<p>Matsui wasn’t the only Yankee who delivered in the clutch. Jorge Posada was 3-for-7 with a team-leading five RBIs with RISP. Johnny Damon was 2-for-6 with four ribbies in those situations, though he will be remembered most for stealing both second and third base on the same play in Game 4. </p>

<p>Leading off the ninth inning in Philadelphia, with the score tied 4-4, Damon prevailed in a remarkable nine-pitch at-bat by singling off Phillies closer Brad Lidge. With Mark Teixeira at the plate and the Phillies playing an exaggerated shift to the right side, Damon stole second base and kept running when he saw no one was positioned to cover third. </p>

<p>Perhaps Lidge was rattled by Damon’s rare double steal, as he then hit Teixeira with a pitch. Alex Rodriguez followed with a two-run double, and the Yankees went up three games to one with a 7-4 victory. </p>

<p>That ninth inning in Game 4 was a turning point in the Series. The Yankees had held a 4-2 lead, but Chase Utley narrowed the deficit to one with a seventh-inning homer. When Pedro Feliz tied the game with an eighth-inning blast off Joba Chamberlain, the Phillies were positioned to tie the Series with Game 5 also in Philadelphia.</p>

<p>The Phillies rebounded to stay alive in Game 5, but they were 0-for-6 with RISP and stranded 13 runners in Wednesday’s final game. Despite a record-tying five World Series home runs from Utley, they weren’t able to buck a recent trend that they managed to overcome a year ago.    </p>

<p>Since 1982, the team with home-field advantage has won 21 of 27 World Series. Last year’s Phillies were one of the six clubs to overcome their opponent’s home-field advantage in this stretch. The others were the 1984 Tigers, 1992 Blue Jays, 1999 Yankees, 2003 Marlins and 2006 Cardinals.<br />
 <br />
As talented as the 2009 Yankees were, winning twice at Yankee Stadium to close out the season was too much to ask of the Phillies. And history wasn’t on their side in that regard, either. Clinching a World Series title on the road in a sixth or seventh game has been nearly impossible since the Dodgers won Game 6 and the World Series at Yankee Stadium in 1981. Since then, the home team has posted a 19-3 record in Games 6 and 7.</p>

<p>That’s why the All-Star Game shouldn’t determine home-field advantage in October. Still, the Phillies lost the World Series to the Yankees for other reasons. </p>

<p>The top two hitters in their lineup batted .200 and scored only six runs. Cleanup man Ryan Howard didn’t produce and the Phillies as a team failed to hit in the clutch. On top of that, the pitching staff struggled in the biggest games of the year. The rotation looked like a difference-maker going into the playoffs, but it posted a 5.20 ERA against the Yankees. The bullpen, with a 5.74 ERA and an .844 opponent OPS, was even worse.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Was Starting Blanton in Game 4 the Wrong Call?</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1156" title="Was Starting Blanton in Game 4 the Wrong Call?" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1156</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-02T21:49:51Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-02T21:54:41Z</updated>
    
    <summary>If the New York Yankees win their first World Series title in nine years this week, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will face an offseason of chatter about his decision to start Joe Blanton in Game 4. The Yankees turned to...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>If the New York Yankees win their first World Series title in nine years this week, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will face an offseason of chatter about his decision to start Joe Blanton in Game 4. The Yankees turned to CC Sabathia on three days’ rest, but Manuel chose to go with Blanton and give staff ace Cliff Lee four days off before his Game 5 assignment.</p>

<p>The second-guessers are busy already, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan called it a “stupid decision.” He also took Lee to task for not pushing for the start when Manuel asked the left-hander if he was willing. Lee, who agreed to go if called upon, reportedly said it was his job to “pitch when Charlie wants me to pitch. . . I’m not going to try to second-guess or anything like that. I would have been happy either way.” </p>

<p>Passan’s response: “Aces don’t say that,” adding that “Lee should have walked into Manuel’s office, locked the door and said he wasn’t leaving until promised the Game 4 start.” </p>

<p>That’s not Lee’s personality. Unlike a lot of No. 1 starters, he’s not the fiery type. He also doesn’t have experience pitching on three days’ rest. He’s never done it, and that may have made Lee reluctant to force the issue. The game is loaded with confident and cocky players who would have pushed for the assignment, even if they had failed at it in the past, but Lee isn’t one of them.</p>

<p>Sure, Sabathia is now 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and .232 opponent batting average in nine career starts on three days’ rest. The guy’s proven to be a workhorse who can handle short-rest gigs. He’s not the norm, however. Over the last five seasons combined, including playoffs, major league pitchers starting on less than four days’ rest have a losing record, a 5.02 ERA and .278 OBA. In this same span, those numbers are 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and .278 OBA in the postseason.</p>

<p>It’s a clash of old school vs. new school. The old school approach says that under the circumstances, the ace should step up. If he’s hurt, rub some dirt on it. If he’s tired, get over it and give your team the win it needs. The numbers, though, demonstrate the importance of four days off for starters. </p>

<p>Despite the ugly numbers, Passan notes that most of those short-rest starts have gone reasonably well. That’s not altogether surprising, as it’s usually the best starters who get called on to pitch on short rest in October. Yet, the overall numbers suggest the best are compromised and the chance of a disastrous outing by a staff ace multiplies. Plus, Manuel was in the dugout a year ago, when Blanton gave the Phillies three solid outings in the postseason and was masterful in winning last year’s World Series Game 4. </p>

<p>Should Manuel have changed his mind and turned to Lee after the Phillies lost Game 3 at home? Maybe. On the other hand, if Brad Lidge had recorded the final out of the ninth inning last night before the Yankees rallied for three runs, Manuel’s decision might look like a winner today.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>It&apos;s Sabathia vs. Blanton in Game 4</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/11/its_sabathia_vs_blanton_in_gam.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1153" title="It's Sabathia vs. Blanton in Game 4" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1153</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-01T20:09:24Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-01T20:11:34Z</updated>
    
    <summary>A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies returned home after splitting the first two games of the World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies scratched for a run in the bottom of the ninth to claim a one-run victory...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies returned home after splitting the first two games of the World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies scratched for a run in the bottom of the ninth to claim a one-run victory in Game 3, then won two more at home to win a five-game affair.</p>

<p>The Phillies didn’t repeat their Game 3 success last night, as Cole Hamels struggled with command again in an 8-5 loss to the New York Yankees. History tells us it’s a pivotal loss. </p>

<p>Teams have split the first two games of a best-of-seven World Series 51 times prior to this fall’s Yankees-Phillies matchup. The winner of Game 3 has prevailed in 36 -- or 71 percent -- of those 51 World Series.   </p>

<p>Tonight’s Game 4 looks to favor the Yankees, as they send CC Sabathia to the mound against Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton. New York manager Joe Girardi is turning to his Game 1 starter on three days’ rest, while Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has committed to using four starters in the Series and calls on Blanton.</p>

<p>Blanton was successful in Game 4 a year ago, working six innings of a 10-2 victory over the Rays. On Sunday night he faces the dangerous Yankees, a team he has never defeated in four career starts as a member of the Oakland Athletics. </p>

<p>Sabathia is 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in eight career starts following three days off. Opponents have batted just .228 against him in those outings. Two of those starts have been in the postseason, and they include eight solid innings against the Angels in Game 4 of the ALCS on Oct. 20. The Yankees took a three-games-to-one lead with Sabathia holding the Angels to five hits and a single run in eight innings of a 10-1 victory.</p>

<p>The Yankees southpaw has given up just five earned runs in four postseason starts this fall. The only time he has given up more than a single earned run or taken a loss was World Series Game 1 on Wednesday, when he was touched for two solo homers by Chase Utley. </p>

<p>Hamels’ loss in Game 3 may have Manuel second-guessing whether to stick with Blanton tonight. His Game 1 starter Cliff Lee could be used on three days’ rest, something the left-hander has never done in his big league career.</p>

<p>Saturday’s loss was just the second postseason defeat at home since the Phillies started their push to the World Series title a year ago. They are now 11-2 at Citizens Bank Park in this span, with the only other loss coming against Colorado in Game 2 of this year’s NLDS. </p>

<p>The Phillies can’t afford to lose two in a row before the home crowd, or their season will be all but finished. Not only do they need a strong outing from Blanton, they need Ryan Howard to break out of his funk. </p>

<p>Howard and Alex Rodriguez had been the big guns for their teams going into the World Series, and together they were 2-for-17 with 12 strikeouts in the first two games. A-Rod broke through with a two-run homer off a camera down the right-field line in Game 3, his first hit of the Series, while Howard was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. The Phillies slugger has now fanned in seven of his last eight at-bats.</p>

<p>Howard isn’t the only struggling Phillie. The top four hitters in the Philadelphia lineup -- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Utley and Howard -- are collectively 8-for-45 (.178) in the Series. Rollins had the sole hit among the group in Game 3, and that isn’t going to cut it in Game 4. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Phillies Need Rebound from 2008 World Series MVP</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/phillies_need_rebound_from_200.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1152" title="Phillies Need Rebound from 2008 World Series MVP" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1152</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-30T22:59:41Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-30T23:06:30Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Backed by solid outings from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown they aren’t going to roll over for the New York Yankees, who are widely perceived as the favorite in the 2009 World Series. Now the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Backed by solid outings from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown they aren’t going to roll over for the New York Yankees, who are widely perceived as the favorite in the 2009 World Series.</p>

<p>Now the Phillies need a strong performance from the rotation member who has been the biggest question mark this postseason. That would be Cole Hamels, who was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series a year ago.</p>

<p>Unlike 2008, when Hamels was terrific during the second half, the 25-year-old left-hander has struggled down the stretch this year. He’s 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA and .317 OBA in his last six starts, dating to Sept 23. There isn’t a quality start in the bunch, and he hasn’t completed six innings his last four times out. His one win was in the opening game of the NLCS, an 8-6 victory in which he allowed four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings -- and nearly surrendered an early 5-1 lead to the Dodgers. </p>

<p>Hamels has allowed six home runs in three postseason starts, three of them in his last outing in Game 5 of the NLCS. Three of those six longballs have been to left-handed hitters James Loney and Andre Ethier, and lefties are batting .600 (9-for-15) with a double, three homers and two walks against him in the playoffs. </p>

<p>That doesn’t bode well facing the Yankees, as Hamels could make the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano look like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. After all, the Yankees already have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter.</p>

<p>Hamels has been markedly better at home this season, but so far in the playoffs, home vs. road hasn’t mattered in his three outings. He has a 6.75 ERA both at Citizens Bank Park and on the road. Hitters are batting .324/.333/.703 against him in Philadelphia, and .333/.360/.625 in Los Angeles, where he made his only road start of the postseason.</p>

<p>The Phillies made the decision to give Martinez the Yankee Stadium assignment in Game 2, setting up Hamels for a start at home. If the World Series goes seven games, however, Hamels still could get a pressure-packed turn in the Bronx. </p>

<p>Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has just announced right-hander Joe Blanton will pitch Game 4 in Philadelphia. If Manuel’s starters work on normal rest and games aren’t postponed by weather, Hamels projects to pitch Game 7. Whether the southpaw rebounds this week could go a long way in determining whether the Phillies become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees nine years ago. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Phillies Finally Go Back to Work</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/phillies_finally_go_back_to_wo.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1149" title="Phillies Finally Go Back to Work" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1149</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-27T23:48:08Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-28T00:12:43Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before opening the 2009 World Series in the Bronx on Wednesday. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before opening the 2009 World Series in the Bronx on Wednesday. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days and were swept by the Boston Red Sox. Time off worked against the hottest team in baseball that fall, and it also could be detrimental to the Phillies, who have won six of their last seven games.</p>

<p>Since the LCS was added to the postseason in 1969, Philadelphia is the fifth team to sit for six or more days before the start of the World Series. The 2007 Rockies were the most recent team to endure such a layoff, and their eight days of rest and relaxation are the most in this era. </p>

<p>Two of the previous four teams with layoffs of at least six days went on to win the World Series, but a look at the stats suggests the downtime worked against a team's hitters in Game 1. </p>

<p><strong>Game 1 Hitting Stats for Teams with 6+ Days Off before WS Opener</strong><br />
<em>(since 1969)</em></p>

<p><strong>Team. . . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . R. . . . . H. . . . . Avg. . . . .. . . . .Dec</strong><br />
1995 Braves. . . . . . . 25. . . . . .3. . . . . .3 . . . . .120. . . . . . . . Win 3-2<br />
1996 Yankees. . . . . .31. . . . . .1. . . . . .4 . . . . .129. . . . . . . . Lose 12-1<br />
2006 Tigers . . . . . . .32. . . . . .2. . . . . .4 . . . . .125. . . . . . . . Lose 7-2<br />
2007 Rockies . . . . . .32. . . . . .1. . . . . .6 . . . . .188. . . . . . . . Lose 13-1</p>

<p>The 1995 Braves were the only team to pull out a win in Game 1, thanks to Greg Maddux outdueling Cleveland’s Orel Hershiser in a matchup of former Cy Young Award winners. Atlanta won despite picking up just three hits in the game. Maddux allowed only two in a complete-game victory. The Braves also won Game 2 behind a strong outing from Tom Glavine, and they went on to claim a six-game affair that was the only World Series triumph of the 1990s Braves.</p>

<p>The following fall, the Yankees lost just once in the ALDS and ALCS combined and had six days off before facing Atlanta in the World Series. John Smoltz was masterful in Game 1, holding the Yankees to a single run on two hits through six innings. The Braves scored 12 times off Andy Pettitte and four relievers. Atlanta claimed its fifth straight win in Game 2, but the Yankees bounced back with four consecutive victories to take the Series in six games.</p>

<p>In 2006, the Detroit Tigers waited six days to face the St. Louis Cardinals, who needed seven games to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS and had one day off before Game 1 in Detroit. The Tigers managed just four hits off Cardinals rookie Anthony Reyes, who went eight innings in a 7-2 victory. The Tigers bounced back in Game 2 at home, but ended the Series with three losses in a row in St. Louis. </p>

<p>The 2007 Rockies scratched for six hits and a run off Boston’s Josh Beckett in Game 1. They batted .210 and scored a total of 10 runs in the Red Sox sweep.</p>

<p>History suggests the long layoff may impact Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday, when the Phillies must solve Sabathia. It’s less likely, however, to work against the Phillies over the course of the Series. Although losing Game 1 to the talented Yankees isn’t the preferred way to start the Series, the success of the 1995 Braves and 1996 Yankees suggests the offensive production of this deep Philadelphia lineup shouldn’t suffer long-term from the additional rest.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Each Elimination Game Gets Harder for Angels</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/each_elimination_game_gets_har.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1146" title="Each Elimination Game Gets Harder for Angels" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1146</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-24T20:42:56Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-24T20:57:17Z</updated>
    
    <summary>After blowing a 4-0 lead late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Los Angeles Angels waged an impressive comeback to force a Game 6 back in the Bronx. The task of staying alive gets harder, though, for Los Angeles....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>After blowing a 4-0 lead late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Los Angeles Angels waged an impressive comeback to force a Game 6 back in the Bronx. The task of staying alive gets harder, though, for Los Angeles.</p>

<p>The Angels must win both games at Yankee Stadium to advance to the World Series, but the New York Yankees have lost back-to-back games at home only twice since a five-game losing streak there at the start in May. And those are the only three streaks of consecutive losses by New York at the Stadium. Since stopping that five-game skid at home, the Yankees have gone 55-17 in their new ballpark, including playoffs.</p>

<p>On top of that, when the Yankees return home to close out a postseason series, up three games to two, they almost always get the job done. They have wrapped up the series eight of the last nine times they have gone back to Yankee Stadium needing a single win. The lone failure, though, is a difficult one to forget. That would be the 2004 ALCS with the Boston Red Sox, when the Yankees won the first three games before losing four straight, including the last two at home. </p>

<p>The 2009 version of the Yankees are feared most because of their dangerous lineup, but New York’s pitching could prove to be the difference in the ALCS. The Yankees are 4-0 at home in October, with the pitching staff posting a 1.71 ERA and limiting opponents to a .215 average. Few games at the new yard are played without someone hitting a home run, but New York pitchers haven’t allowed a longball in four playoff games there.</p>

<p>If wet weather doesn’t shut down the series, the Yankees may shut down the Angels. They throw Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia at the Angels, who have hit .205/.270/.357 against left-handed pitching in the playoffs. Pettitte has a 2.79 ERA at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, and he’s in pursuit of his 16th postseason victory, which would push him past John Smoltz for the most career playoff wins.</p>

<p>If the Angels survive Game 6, they would face Sabathia, who has allowed a total of two earned runs en route to wins in both of his Yankee Stadium outings this postseason. Including his playoff starts, Sabathia is 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his home park this season. The big lefty, who hasn’t lost there since July 2, is 7-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last nine home starts going into the weekend.   </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Clutch-Hitting Phillies in Line for World Series Return</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/clutchhitting_phillies_in_line.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1143" title="Clutch-Hitting Phillies in Line for World Series Return" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1143</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-21T19:29:23Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-21T20:24:26Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Manny Ramirez was in the shower when the Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NLCS on Monday, but he’ll be towel-dried and ready to go with the Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight after their...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Manny Ramirez was in the shower when the Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NLCS on Monday, but he’ll be towel-dried and ready to go with the Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight after their walkoff loss in Game 4.</p>

<p>In the long, storied history of the franchise, the Dodgers have never bounced back from a three-games-to-one deficit in six tries. They’ve forced a Game 6 only once after falling behind 3-1, and that will be a difficult task this time around, facing a club that leads all playoff teams by scoring nearly six runs a game. </p>

<p>The runs have come easy because the Phillies have delivered the clutch hit throughout the postseason. They are batting .387 with runners in scoring position, and their 36 RBIs in those situations are twice as many as any other team. The Yankees, who loom as Philadelphia’s World Series opponent, have 18.<br />
 <br />
How clutch has Philadelphia hitting been? Three times the Phillies have scored in their last at-bat to win games. The first time was in a pivotal Game 3 of their NLDS with Colorado, when a ninth-inning sac fly by Ryan Howard gave the Phillies a 6-5 victory in Denver, and put them up two games to one. </p>

<p>The Phillies turned the trick again the next night, claiming a 5-4 win and eliminating the Rockies with a three-run rally in the ninth off Colorado closer Huston Street. Then there’s Monday’s comeback win, with Jimmy Rollins doubling home two ninth-inning runs with two outs and Manny practicing good hygiene. </p>

<p>The only time the Phillies have been held to fewer than four runs in the postseason is Game 2 of the NLCS, when Los Angeles right-hander Vicente Padilla pitched 7.1 innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory. That’s the Dodgers’ only win in the series, and Padilla gets the call again in Game 5. He has allowed a total of two runs in his last three starts, a stingy stretch that includes seven scoreless innings against St. Louis in the Dodgers’ NLDS clincher.</p>

<p>Despite Padilla’s recent success, he might be better off walking Howard any time the Phillies slugger steps to the plate with runners in scoring position. He’s 6-for-11 with four doubles, a rare triple and 11 RBIs in those situations, and his 14 postseason RBIs lead all big leaguers -- including Alex Rodriguez, who has 11.</p>

<p>Howard has driven home a run in each of Philadelphia’s eight playoff games, tying a major league record set by Yankees great Lou Gehrig nearly 80 years ago. Howard looks to establish a new mark in tonight’s Game 5, but it would be a record he might not hold alone for long. </p>

<p>A-Rod also has RBIs in all eight games New York has played, and he’ll go for nine straight when the Yankees are in line to clinch their own World Series berth on Thursday. If both Howard and Rodriguez come through and their teams square off in the World Series, the ribbie streak could be an interesting subplot.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Did Girardi&apos;s Pitching Change in the 11th Inning of Game 3 Make Sense?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/did_girardis_pitching_change_i.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1141" title="Did Girardi's Pitching Change in the 11th Inning of Game 3 Make Sense?" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1141</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-20T15:04:09Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-20T15:15:03Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Yankees manager Joe Girardi had pulled all the right strings during his team’s 5-0 start in the postseason, but he’ll be second-guessed about a few moves he made Monday in the Angels’ 5-4 victory in Game 3. The most perplexing...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Yankees manager Joe Girardi had pulled all the right strings during his team’s 5-0 start in the postseason, but he’ll be second-guessed about a few moves he made Monday in the Angels’ 5-4 victory in Game 3.</p>

<p>The most perplexing one came in the decisive 11th inning, after Yankees reliever Dave Robertson recorded two quick out. With right-handed-hitting Howie Kendrick coming to the plate, Girardi pulled <em>his</em> right-hander for another, Alfredo Aceves. Seven pitchers later, the game was over.</p>

<p>Aceves gave up a single to Kendrick and an RBI double to Jeff Mathis, a lifetime .200 hitter. Mathis’ blast to deep left-center scored Kendrick with the run that put the Angels back in the ALCS. So, why did Girardi lift Robertson with two outs and nobody on? The manager had been seen consulting a thick binder in the dugout before changing pitchers, and apparently what he found convinced him to make the change.</p>

<p>“We have all the matchups, and all the scouting reports, and we felt that it was a better matchup for us,” Girardi said in a post-game interview.</p>

<p>As for the specific 11th-inning matchups, Kendrick had never faced Aceves and was 1-for-2 against Robertson. Mathis hadn’t faced Robertson and was 1-for-2 against Aceves. Nothing overly significant in those numbers.</p>

<p>According to Tyler Kepner of <em>The New York Times</em>, the decision wasn’t based on numbers, but on the difference in pitches that Robertson and Aceves throw. Kepner noted that Aceves “throws a wider variety of pitches than Robertson, who has only a fastball and a curve.</p>

<p>“Robertson’s fastball has a natural cut to it, but he does not throw a traditional cutter like Aceves, who attacked Kendrick with that pitch. Kendrick took four pitches -- one for a strike -- then lashed a single on the ground up the middle.”</p>

<p>After Kendrick had homered and tripled in earlier at-bats, the Yankees were probably looking for a groundball off a cutter from Aceves. The grounder Aceves induced skipped past him and through the infield, however, setting up Mathis’ game-winning shot to the wall in left-center. </p>

<p>As a former catcher, Girardi may be more likely than other managers to make such a decision based on a pitcher’s arsenal. In fact, the Yankees skipper has been quick to make pitching changes to set up certain matchups throughout the playoffs, but was he guilty of over-managing when he yanked Robertson?</p>

<p>Sometimes you don’t fix what isn’t broken. That’s a pet peeve of this writer, who doesn’t like to see a manager pull a reliever who is cruising along, especially if he’s dominating hitters. Sometimes a lefty-righty matchup doesn’t look like it matters. Sometimes the setup guy is so dominant, it seems unnecessary to change pitchers simply because the ninth inning is the closer’s domain.</p>

<p>Still, managers tend to make the predictable moves, regardless of the success of a pitcher, because they don’t like to be second-guessed. That’s especially true when every game counts in October. In this case, Girardi’s move was a bit unorthodox, outside the box, but it seemed to be a case of over-managing.</p>

<p>That’s not to say Robertson was lights out, but the ease with which he retired both Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales suggested he was just as likely to succeed against the bottom of the Angels lineup as Aceves. Facing Aceves, however, Kendrick and Mathis completed the best postseason performances of their careers.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Fumbling Angels Must Rebound at Home vs. Yankees</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/fumbling_angels_must_rebound_a.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1140" title="Fumbling Angels Must Rebound at Home vs. Yankees" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1140</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-19T19:19:30Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-19T23:20:45Z</updated>
    
    <summary>What’s happened to the Los Angeles Angels? They have been one of the better defensive teams in the majors this season, and a Mike Scioscia club is usually a heady bunch not prone to mental mistakes. Yet, on two miserable...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>What’s happened to the Los Angeles Angels? They have been one of the better defensive teams in the majors this season, and a Mike Scioscia club is usually a heady bunch not prone to mental mistakes.</p>

<p>Yet, on two miserable nights in the Bronx, the Angels fumbled the ball. They committed three errors in the ALCS opener on Friday, a 4-1 loss, and that didn’t include the easy flyball off the bat of Hideki Matsui that inexplicably fell between infielders Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar in the first inning. With Johnny Damon racing home from second base on the play, someone should have been charged with an error on what should have been the third out of the opening frame.</p>

<p>A throwing error by left fielder Juan Rivera already had allowed Damon to advance to second, and the Angels were guilty of two errors when the Yankees tacked on an insurance run in the sixth inning. The biggest surprise might have been the miscue by center fielder Torii Hunter, who raced toward the infield and mishandled a grounder as he attempted to make a play on Melky Cabrera at the plate. Hunter had been charged with just one error all season. </p>

<p>The Angels have recorded three errors in a game only 50 times in the nearly 1,700 games managed by Scioscia. That’s a mere three percent of all games, regular season and postseason, and they saved No. 50 for the worst time. Not only is it October, but the Angels did against the Yankees, the team that averaged a major league-high 5.65 runs per game during the 2009 season. It’s the last team you give extra outs, as the Yanks will make you pay.</p>

<p>Although Game 2 went better for the Angels, they committed two more errors, marking only the seventh time in the last five seasons they had multiple errors in consecutive games. Los Angeles should have had a “W” after scratching for an 11th-inning run that gave them a 3-2 lead. That lead disappeared in the bottom half of the inning on an 0-2 mistake pitch from closer Brian Fuentes, which Alex Rodriguez deposited into the seats in right field. </p>

<p>Two innings later, another mistake cost the Angels the game. With Yankees on first and second with one out in the 13th, Cabrera stroked a grounder to the left of second baseman Maicer Izturis. The second sacker had made just four errors all year, but throwing across his body, Izturis’ errant toss to second base provided only the sixth walkoff error in postseason history. Shades of Bill Buckner.</p>

<p>The real error here was a mental one. The Angels simply needed an out on the play, as there was no chance of turning two. Throwing out Cabrera at first base would have worked just fine, leaving two runners in scoring position with two out. It would have been up to Ervin Santana to retire Jorge Posada to end the threat.</p>

<p>Today the Angels return home, where temps will run 30-40 degrees higher and the home team is 51-32, including the postseason. That’s not to say the weather can be blamed for the Angels’ poor defensive play, though it’s a shame teams play a six-month season and then toil for championships in entirely different conditions. </p>

<p>Bouncing back won’t be easy for the Angels. In the postseason, the Yankees are 14-3 all-time when winning the first two games of a best-of-seven series. These Yankees score in bunches, and if they have a late lead, it’s nearly impossible to beat Mariano Rivera.</p>

<p>The Angels must win Monday’s Game 3 to keep New York out of the driver’s seat. And maybe the next two home games as well. The Yankees are 35-8 at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, including playoff games, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 there. </p>

<p>With New York poised to have home-field advantage the rest of the way -- and Game 4 of the World Series scheduled for Nov. 1 -- we may be calling the Yankees the Boys of Winter when the postseason ends. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Closers Were the Difference for LDS Winners</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/closers_were_the_difference_fo.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1135" title="Closers Were the Difference for LDS Winners" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1135</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-13T22:52:58Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-13T23:27:22Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The ninth inning was a potential hazard for a few playoff teams with struggling closers, and the biggest question mark was the Phillies’ Brad Lidge. He posted a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008,...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>The ninth inning was a potential hazard for a few playoff teams with struggling closers, and the biggest question mark was the Phillies’ Brad Lidge. He posted a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008, but didn’t come close to that performance this season. The right-hander was 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA, 31 saves and 11 blown chances. Opponents batted .301 against him in 2009, more than 100 points higher than they did a year ago.</p>

<p>The Phillies closed out the first round Monday night, with Lidge recording the final out of a 5-4 come-from-behind victory that eliminated the Rockies in four games. Philadelphia left-hander Scott Eyre started the ninth inning, but gave up singles to left-handed hitters Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton before Lidge came on to strike out Troy Tulowitzki to nail down his second save of the series.</p>

<p>Lidge retired Tulowitzki on a flyball to finish Game 3 the previous night, but had walked Gonzalez and Helton to put a 6-5 lead at risk in his one inning of work. The walks suggest his control may remain an issue down the road, but he came through while more dependable closers struggled in the LDS.</p>

<p>Four of the 13 first-round games were decided in the ninth inning, and a fifth went 11 innings, so it’s little surprise that the closers on the four teams to advance posted markedly better numbers than the four on losing teams.  </p>

<p><strong>First-Round Closers</strong></p>

<p><strong>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IP. . . . . . .ERA. . . . . .SV. . . . . . BS</strong><br />
Mariano Rivera, NYY. . . . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0<br />
Brian Fuentes, LAA. . . . . . . . . .1.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0<br />
Brad Lidge, Phi . . . . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0<br />
Jonathan Broxton, LAD. . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .2.45. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0</p>

<p>Jonathan Papelbon, Bos. . . . . .2.0. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1<br />
Huston Street, Col. . . . . . . . . .2.2. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .1<br />
Joe Nathan, Min. . . . . . . . . . .2.0. . . . . . . 9.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1<br />
Ryan Franklin, StL. . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . . 0.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1</p>

<p>The four closers on LCS teams combined to allow just one run over 10.1 innings, and opponents were limited to a .205 average (8-for-39). The four closers on losing clubs allowed 10 more hits and a .462 mark (18-for-39). They combined to give up nine earned runs in eight innings, blew four saves and took four losses.</p>

<p>Colorado’s Huston Street, who blew just two saves all year, absorbed two of those losses in the final two games of the Rockies-Phillies LDS. The most devastating was Monday’s series finale, when the Rockies tallied three runs in the eighth inning to take a 4-2 lead. Street came on and couldn’t retire Philadelphia’s best hitters. Ryan Howard doubled home two runs to tie the game, and Jayson Werth put the Phils in front with a base hit that scored Howard.</p>

<p>The Game 3 struggles of one of the game’s best closers on Sunday were a reminder how unpredictable the game can be. Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon hadn’t allowed a run in 26 postseason innings before the Angels scored three times in the ninth off the right-hander to overcome a 6-4 deficit and complete a sweep of the Red Sox. Papelbon was one strike away from extending the series against three different batters, but after an intentional walk to Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero singled home two runs for a 7-6 series-clinching victory. </p>

<p>Also at less than his best last week was Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, who struggled to command his fastball. He often couldn’t get his breaking stuff over either, and he blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning of Game 2. It was a chance to take a split home to the noisy and Twin-friendly Metrodome, but Alex Rodriguez torched him for a long home run. The Yankees won 4-3 in the 11th on a homer from Mark Teixeira off Jose Mijares.  </p>

<p>The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin was terrific all season until a September crash, and the right-hander couldn’t recapture his touch in the postseason. Although he didn’t allow an earned run, Franklin gave up three hits and walked two en route to recording just four outs in the Cards-Dodgers LDS. He was victimized by Matt Holliday’s inability to catch James Loney’s sinking liner, but at the time there were two outs and the Cardinals were just one out away from capturing Game 2. Franklin then allowed two walks and two hits, and Mark Loretta’s bloop single gave the Dodgers two wins at home. </p>]]>
        
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