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    <updated>2009-11-06T01:38:47Z</updated>
    
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<entry>
    <title>Yankees Upend Defending World Series Champs</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1159" title="Yankees Upend Defending World Series Champs" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1159</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-06T01:24:19Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-06T01:38:47Z</updated>
    
    <summary>When the New York Yankees secured their 27th World Series title with a 7-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, it was eight years to the day that Luis Gonzalez delivered a broken-bat single off Mariano Rivera in the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>When the New York Yankees secured their 27th World Series title with a 7-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, it was eight years to the day that Luis Gonzalez delivered a broken-bat single off Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2001 Fall Classic. That hit gave the underdog Arizona Diamondbacks the championship, but last night, the future Hall of Fame closer was on the mound for the final out of the baseball season, as the Yankees won their first World Series in nine years. </p>

<p>It was the fourth time Rivera had closed out a Series-clinching victory for New York. Although Rivera worked 5.1 scoreless innings against the Phillies, the rest of the Yankees pitching staff had given up 11 home runs, 23 extra-base hits and a lofty .464 slugging percentage in the six-game affair. Surprisingly, Philadelphia posted better power numbers across the board than New York, but Rivera’s teammates repeatedly came through with the big hit in key situations. </p>

<p>The Yankees topped the Phillies by batting .302 with runners in scoring position, driving in 21 runs in 43 at-bats. World Series MVP Hideki Matsui was 3-for-3 with four RBIs in those situations. He tied a major league record with six RBIs in Wednesday’s Game 6, delivering a two-run homer in the second inning, a two-out two-run single in the third, and a two-run double in the fifth. If it wasn’t already a perfect night for Matsui, only a two-run triple could have made it better. His Game 6 performance matched the six RBIs recorded by long-time Yankees second baseman Bobby Richardson in Game 3 of the 1960 World Series. </p>

<p>Matsui wasn’t the only Yankee who delivered in the clutch. Jorge Posada was 3-for-7 with a team-leading five RBIs with RISP. Johnny Damon was 2-for-6 with four ribbies in those situations, though he will be remembered most for stealing both second and third base on the same play in Game 4. </p>

<p>Leading off the ninth inning in Philadelphia, with the score tied 4-4, Damon prevailed in a remarkable nine-pitch at-bat by singling off Phillies closer Brad Lidge. With Mark Teixeira at the plate and the Phillies playing an exaggerated shift to the right side, Damon stole second base and kept running when he saw no one was positioned to cover third. </p>

<p>Perhaps Lidge was rattled by Damon’s rare double steal, as he then hit Teixeira with a pitch. Alex Rodriguez followed with a two-run double, and the Yankees went up three games to one with a 7-4 victory. </p>

<p>That ninth inning in Game 4 was a turning point in the Series. The Yankees had held a 4-2 lead, but Chase Utley narrowed the deficit to one with a seventh-inning homer. When Pedro Feliz tied the game with an eighth-inning blast off Joba Chamberlain, the Phillies were positioned to tie the Series with Game 5 also in Philadelphia.</p>

<p>The Phillies rebounded to stay alive in Game 5, but they were 0-for-6 with RISP and stranded 13 runners in Wednesday’s final game. Despite a record-tying five World Series home runs from Utley, they weren’t able to buck a recent trend that they managed to overcome a year ago.    </p>

<p>Since 1982, the team with home-field advantage has won 21 of 27 World Series. Last year’s Phillies were one of the six clubs to overcome their opponent’s home-field advantage in this stretch. The others were the 1984 Tigers, 1992 Blue Jays, 1999 Yankees, 2003 Marlins and 2006 Cardinals.<br />
 <br />
As talented as the 2009 Yankees were, winning twice at Yankee Stadium to close out the season was too much to ask of the Phillies. And history wasn’t on their side in that regard, either. Clinching a World Series title on the road in a sixth or seventh game has been nearly impossible since the Dodgers won Game 6 and the World Series at Yankee Stadium in 1981. Since then, the home team has posted a 19-3 record in Games 6 and 7.</p>

<p>That’s why the All-Star Game shouldn’t determine home-field advantage in October. Still, the Phillies lost the World Series to the Yankees for other reasons. </p>

<p>The top two hitters in their lineup batted .200 and scored only six runs. Cleanup man Ryan Howard didn’t produce and the Phillies as a team failed to hit in the clutch. On top of that, the pitching staff struggled in the biggest games of the year. The rotation looked like a difference-maker going into the playoffs, but it posted a 5.20 ERA against the Yankees. The bullpen, with a 5.74 ERA and an .844 opponent OPS, was even worse.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Was Starting Blanton in Game 4 the Wrong Call?</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1156" title="Was Starting Blanton in Game 4 the Wrong Call?" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1156</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-02T21:49:51Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-02T21:54:41Z</updated>
    
    <summary>If the New York Yankees win their first World Series title in nine years this week, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will face an offseason of chatter about his decision to start Joe Blanton in Game 4. The Yankees turned to...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
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        <![CDATA[<p>If the New York Yankees win their first World Series title in nine years this week, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will face an offseason of chatter about his decision to start Joe Blanton in Game 4. The Yankees turned to CC Sabathia on three days’ rest, but Manuel chose to go with Blanton and give staff ace Cliff Lee four days off before his Game 5 assignment.</p>

<p>The second-guessers are busy already, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan called it a “stupid decision.” He also took Lee to task for not pushing for the start when Manuel asked the left-hander if he was willing. Lee, who agreed to go if called upon, reportedly said it was his job to “pitch when Charlie wants me to pitch. . . I’m not going to try to second-guess or anything like that. I would have been happy either way.” </p>

<p>Passan’s response: “Aces don’t say that,” adding that “Lee should have walked into Manuel’s office, locked the door and said he wasn’t leaving until promised the Game 4 start.” </p>

<p>That’s not Lee’s personality. Unlike a lot of No. 1 starters, he’s not the fiery type. He also doesn’t have experience pitching on three days’ rest. He’s never done it, and that may have made Lee reluctant to force the issue. The game is loaded with confident and cocky players who would have pushed for the assignment, even if they had failed at it in the past, but Lee isn’t one of them.</p>

<p>Sure, Sabathia is now 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and .232 opponent batting average in nine career starts on three days’ rest. The guy’s proven to be a workhorse who can handle short-rest gigs. He’s not the norm, however. Over the last five seasons combined, including playoffs, major league pitchers starting on less than four days’ rest have a losing record, a 5.02 ERA and .278 OBA. In this same span, those numbers are 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and .278 OBA in the postseason.</p>

<p>It’s a clash of old school vs. new school. The old school approach says that under the circumstances, the ace should step up. If he’s hurt, rub some dirt on it. If he’s tired, get over it and give your team the win it needs. The numbers, though, demonstrate the importance of four days off for starters. </p>

<p>Despite the ugly numbers, Passan notes that most of those short-rest starts have gone reasonably well. That’s not altogether surprising, as it’s usually the best starters who get called on to pitch on short rest in October. Yet, the overall numbers suggest the best are compromised and the chance of a disastrous outing by a staff ace multiplies. Plus, Manuel was in the dugout a year ago, when Blanton gave the Phillies three solid outings in the postseason and was masterful in winning last year’s World Series Game 4. </p>

<p>Should Manuel have changed his mind and turned to Lee after the Phillies lost Game 3 at home? Maybe. On the other hand, if Brad Lidge had recorded the final out of the ninth inning last night before the Yankees rallied for three runs, Manuel’s decision might look like a winner today.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>It&apos;s Sabathia vs. Blanton in Game 4</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1153" title="It's Sabathia vs. Blanton in Game 4" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1153</id>
    
    <published>2009-11-01T20:09:24Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-01T20:11:34Z</updated>
    
    <summary>A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies returned home after splitting the first two games of the World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies scratched for a run in the bottom of the ninth to claim a one-run victory...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies returned home after splitting the first two games of the World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies scratched for a run in the bottom of the ninth to claim a one-run victory in Game 3, then won two more at home to win a five-game affair.</p>

<p>The Phillies didn’t repeat their Game 3 success last night, as Cole Hamels struggled with command again in an 8-5 loss to the New York Yankees. History tells us it’s a pivotal loss. </p>

<p>Teams have split the first two games of a best-of-seven World Series 51 times prior to this fall’s Yankees-Phillies matchup. The winner of Game 3 has prevailed in 36 -- or 71 percent -- of those 51 World Series.   </p>

<p>Tonight’s Game 4 looks to favor the Yankees, as they send CC Sabathia to the mound against Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton. New York manager Joe Girardi is turning to his Game 1 starter on three days’ rest, while Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has committed to using four starters in the Series and calls on Blanton.</p>

<p>Blanton was successful in Game 4 a year ago, working six innings of a 10-2 victory over the Rays. On Sunday night he faces the dangerous Yankees, a team he has never defeated in four career starts as a member of the Oakland Athletics. </p>

<p>Sabathia is 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in eight career starts following three days off. Opponents have batted just .228 against him in those outings. Two of those starts have been in the postseason, and they include eight solid innings against the Angels in Game 4 of the ALCS on Oct. 20. The Yankees took a three-games-to-one lead with Sabathia holding the Angels to five hits and a single run in eight innings of a 10-1 victory.</p>

<p>The Yankees southpaw has given up just five earned runs in four postseason starts this fall. The only time he has given up more than a single earned run or taken a loss was World Series Game 1 on Wednesday, when he was touched for two solo homers by Chase Utley. </p>

<p>Hamels’ loss in Game 3 may have Manuel second-guessing whether to stick with Blanton tonight. His Game 1 starter Cliff Lee could be used on three days’ rest, something the left-hander has never done in his big league career.</p>

<p>Saturday’s loss was just the second postseason defeat at home since the Phillies started their push to the World Series title a year ago. They are now 11-2 at Citizens Bank Park in this span, with the only other loss coming against Colorado in Game 2 of this year’s NLDS. </p>

<p>The Phillies can’t afford to lose two in a row before the home crowd, or their season will be all but finished. Not only do they need a strong outing from Blanton, they need Ryan Howard to break out of his funk. </p>

<p>Howard and Alex Rodriguez had been the big guns for their teams going into the World Series, and together they were 2-for-17 with 12 strikeouts in the first two games. A-Rod broke through with a two-run homer off a camera down the right-field line in Game 3, his first hit of the Series, while Howard was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. The Phillies slugger has now fanned in seven of his last eight at-bats.</p>

<p>Howard isn’t the only struggling Phillie. The top four hitters in the Philadelphia lineup -- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Utley and Howard -- are collectively 8-for-45 (.178) in the Series. Rollins had the sole hit among the group in Game 3, and that isn’t going to cut it in Game 4. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Phillies Need Rebound from 2008 World Series MVP</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1152" title="Phillies Need Rebound from 2008 World Series MVP" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1152</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-30T22:59:41Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-30T23:06:30Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Backed by solid outings from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown they aren’t going to roll over for the New York Yankees, who are widely perceived as the favorite in the 2009 World Series. Now the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Backed by solid outings from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown they aren’t going to roll over for the New York Yankees, who are widely perceived as the favorite in the 2009 World Series.</p>

<p>Now the Phillies need a strong performance from the rotation member who has been the biggest question mark this postseason. That would be Cole Hamels, who was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series a year ago.</p>

<p>Unlike 2008, when Hamels was terrific during the second half, the 25-year-old left-hander has struggled down the stretch this year. He’s 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA and .317 OBA in his last six starts, dating to Sept 23. There isn’t a quality start in the bunch, and he hasn’t completed six innings his last four times out. His one win was in the opening game of the NLCS, an 8-6 victory in which he allowed four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings -- and nearly surrendered an early 5-1 lead to the Dodgers. </p>

<p>Hamels has allowed six home runs in three postseason starts, three of them in his last outing in Game 5 of the NLCS. Three of those six longballs have been to left-handed hitters James Loney and Andre Ethier, and lefties are batting .600 (9-for-15) with a double, three homers and two walks against him in the playoffs. </p>

<p>That doesn’t bode well facing the Yankees, as Hamels could make the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano look like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. After all, the Yankees already have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter.</p>

<p>Hamels has been markedly better at home this season, but so far in the playoffs, home vs. road hasn’t mattered in his three outings. He has a 6.75 ERA both at Citizens Bank Park and on the road. Hitters are batting .324/.333/.703 against him in Philadelphia, and .333/.360/.625 in Los Angeles, where he made his only road start of the postseason.</p>

<p>The Phillies made the decision to give Martinez the Yankee Stadium assignment in Game 2, setting up Hamels for a start at home. If the World Series goes seven games, however, Hamels still could get a pressure-packed turn in the Bronx. </p>

<p>Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has just announced right-hander Joe Blanton will pitch Game 4 in Philadelphia. If Manuel’s starters work on normal rest and games aren’t postponed by weather, Hamels projects to pitch Game 7. Whether the southpaw rebounds this week could go a long way in determining whether the Phillies become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees nine years ago. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Phillies Finally Go Back to Work</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1149" title="Phillies Finally Go Back to Work" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1149</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-27T23:48:08Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-28T00:12:43Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before opening the 2009 World Series in the Bronx on Wednesday. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before opening the 2009 World Series in the Bronx on Wednesday. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days and were swept by the Boston Red Sox. Time off worked against the hottest team in baseball that fall, and it also could be detrimental to the Phillies, who have won six of their last seven games.</p>

<p>Since the LCS was added to the postseason in 1969, Philadelphia is the fifth team to sit for six or more days before the start of the World Series. The 2007 Rockies were the most recent team to endure such a layoff, and their eight days of rest and relaxation are the most in this era. </p>

<p>Two of the previous four teams with layoffs of at least six days went on to win the World Series, but a look at the stats suggests the downtime worked against a team's hitters in Game 1. </p>

<p><strong>Game 1 Hitting Stats for Teams with 6+ Days Off before WS Opener</strong><br />
<em>(since 1969)</em></p>

<p><strong>Team. . . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . R. . . . . H. . . . . Avg. . . . .. . . . .Dec</strong><br />
1995 Braves. . . . . . . 25. . . . . .3. . . . . .3 . . . . .120. . . . . . . . Win 3-2<br />
1996 Yankees. . . . . .31. . . . . .1. . . . . .4 . . . . .129. . . . . . . . Lose 12-1<br />
2006 Tigers . . . . . . .32. . . . . .2. . . . . .4 . . . . .125. . . . . . . . Lose 7-2<br />
2007 Rockies . . . . . .32. . . . . .1. . . . . .6 . . . . .188. . . . . . . . Lose 13-1</p>

<p>The 1995 Braves were the only team to pull out a win in Game 1, thanks to Greg Maddux outdueling Cleveland’s Orel Hershiser in a matchup of former Cy Young Award winners. Atlanta won despite picking up just three hits in the game. Maddux allowed only two in a complete-game victory. The Braves also won Game 2 behind a strong outing from Tom Glavine, and they went on to claim a six-game affair that was the only World Series triumph of the 1990s Braves.</p>

<p>The following fall, the Yankees lost just once in the ALDS and ALCS combined and had six days off before facing Atlanta in the World Series. John Smoltz was masterful in Game 1, holding the Yankees to a single run on two hits through six innings. The Braves scored 12 times off Andy Pettitte and four relievers. Atlanta claimed its fifth straight win in Game 2, but the Yankees bounced back with four consecutive victories to take the Series in six games.</p>

<p>In 2006, the Detroit Tigers waited six days to face the St. Louis Cardinals, who needed seven games to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS and had one day off before Game 1 in Detroit. The Tigers managed just four hits off Cardinals rookie Anthony Reyes, who went eight innings in a 7-2 victory. The Tigers bounced back in Game 2 at home, but ended the Series with three losses in a row in St. Louis. </p>

<p>The 2007 Rockies scratched for six hits and a run off Boston’s Josh Beckett in Game 1. They batted .210 and scored a total of 10 runs in the Red Sox sweep.</p>

<p>History suggests the long layoff may impact Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday, when the Phillies must solve Sabathia. It’s less likely, however, to work against the Phillies over the course of the Series. Although losing Game 1 to the talented Yankees isn’t the preferred way to start the Series, the success of the 1995 Braves and 1996 Yankees suggests the offensive production of this deep Philadelphia lineup shouldn’t suffer long-term from the additional rest.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Each Elimination Game Gets Harder for Angels</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1146" title="Each Elimination Game Gets Harder for Angels" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1146</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-24T20:42:56Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-24T20:57:17Z</updated>
    
    <summary>After blowing a 4-0 lead late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Los Angeles Angels waged an impressive comeback to force a Game 6 back in the Bronx. The task of staying alive gets harder, though, for Los Angeles....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>After blowing a 4-0 lead late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Los Angeles Angels waged an impressive comeback to force a Game 6 back in the Bronx. The task of staying alive gets harder, though, for Los Angeles.</p>

<p>The Angels must win both games at Yankee Stadium to advance to the World Series, but the New York Yankees have lost back-to-back games at home only twice since a five-game losing streak there at the start in May. And those are the only three streaks of consecutive losses by New York at the Stadium. Since stopping that five-game skid at home, the Yankees have gone 55-17 in their new ballpark, including playoffs.</p>

<p>On top of that, when the Yankees return home to close out a postseason series, up three games to two, they almost always get the job done. They have wrapped up the series eight of the last nine times they have gone back to Yankee Stadium needing a single win. The lone failure, though, is a difficult one to forget. That would be the 2004 ALCS with the Boston Red Sox, when the Yankees won the first three games before losing four straight, including the last two at home. </p>

<p>The 2009 version of the Yankees are feared most because of their dangerous lineup, but New York’s pitching could prove to be the difference in the ALCS. The Yankees are 4-0 at home in October, with the pitching staff posting a 1.71 ERA and limiting opponents to a .215 average. Few games at the new yard are played without someone hitting a home run, but New York pitchers haven’t allowed a longball in four playoff games there.</p>

<p>If wet weather doesn’t shut down the series, the Yankees may shut down the Angels. They throw Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia at the Angels, who have hit .205/.270/.357 against left-handed pitching in the playoffs. Pettitte has a 2.79 ERA at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, and he’s in pursuit of his 16th postseason victory, which would push him past John Smoltz for the most career playoff wins.</p>

<p>If the Angels survive Game 6, they would face Sabathia, who has allowed a total of two earned runs en route to wins in both of his Yankee Stadium outings this postseason. Including his playoff starts, Sabathia is 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his home park this season. The big lefty, who hasn’t lost there since July 2, is 7-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last nine home starts going into the weekend.   </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Clutch-Hitting Phillies in Line for World Series Return</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/clutchhitting_phillies_in_line.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1143" title="Clutch-Hitting Phillies in Line for World Series Return" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1143</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-21T19:29:23Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-21T20:24:26Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Manny Ramirez was in the shower when the Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NLCS on Monday, but he’ll be towel-dried and ready to go with the Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight after their...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Manny Ramirez was in the shower when the Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NLCS on Monday, but he’ll be towel-dried and ready to go with the Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight after their walkoff loss in Game 4.</p>

<p>In the long, storied history of the franchise, the Dodgers have never bounced back from a three-games-to-one deficit in six tries. They’ve forced a Game 6 only once after falling behind 3-1, and that will be a difficult task this time around, facing a club that leads all playoff teams by scoring nearly six runs a game. </p>

<p>The runs have come easy because the Phillies have delivered the clutch hit throughout the postseason. They are batting .387 with runners in scoring position, and their 36 RBIs in those situations are twice as many as any other team. The Yankees, who loom as Philadelphia’s World Series opponent, have 18.<br />
 <br />
How clutch has Philadelphia hitting been? Three times the Phillies have scored in their last at-bat to win games. The first time was in a pivotal Game 3 of their NLDS with Colorado, when a ninth-inning sac fly by Ryan Howard gave the Phillies a 6-5 victory in Denver, and put them up two games to one. </p>

<p>The Phillies turned the trick again the next night, claiming a 5-4 win and eliminating the Rockies with a three-run rally in the ninth off Colorado closer Huston Street. Then there’s Monday’s comeback win, with Jimmy Rollins doubling home two ninth-inning runs with two outs and Manny practicing good hygiene. </p>

<p>The only time the Phillies have been held to fewer than four runs in the postseason is Game 2 of the NLCS, when Los Angeles right-hander Vicente Padilla pitched 7.1 innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory. That’s the Dodgers’ only win in the series, and Padilla gets the call again in Game 5. He has allowed a total of two runs in his last three starts, a stingy stretch that includes seven scoreless innings against St. Louis in the Dodgers’ NLDS clincher.</p>

<p>Despite Padilla’s recent success, he might be better off walking Howard any time the Phillies slugger steps to the plate with runners in scoring position. He’s 6-for-11 with four doubles, a rare triple and 11 RBIs in those situations, and his 14 postseason RBIs lead all big leaguers -- including Alex Rodriguez, who has 11.</p>

<p>Howard has driven home a run in each of Philadelphia’s eight playoff games, tying a major league record set by Yankees great Lou Gehrig nearly 80 years ago. Howard looks to establish a new mark in tonight’s Game 5, but it would be a record he might not hold alone for long. </p>

<p>A-Rod also has RBIs in all eight games New York has played, and he’ll go for nine straight when the Yankees are in line to clinch their own World Series berth on Thursday. If both Howard and Rodriguez come through and their teams square off in the World Series, the ribbie streak could be an interesting subplot.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Did Girardi&apos;s Pitching Change in the 11th Inning of Game 3 Make Sense?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/did_girardis_pitching_change_i.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1141" title="Did Girardi's Pitching Change in the 11th Inning of Game 3 Make Sense?" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1141</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-20T15:04:09Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-20T15:15:03Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Yankees manager Joe Girardi had pulled all the right strings during his team’s 5-0 start in the postseason, but he’ll be second-guessed about a few moves he made Monday in the Angels’ 5-4 victory in Game 3. The most perplexing...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Yankees manager Joe Girardi had pulled all the right strings during his team’s 5-0 start in the postseason, but he’ll be second-guessed about a few moves he made Monday in the Angels’ 5-4 victory in Game 3.</p>

<p>The most perplexing one came in the decisive 11th inning, after Yankees reliever Dave Robertson recorded two quick out. With right-handed-hitting Howie Kendrick coming to the plate, Girardi pulled <em>his</em> right-hander for another, Alfredo Aceves. Seven pitchers later, the game was over.</p>

<p>Aceves gave up a single to Kendrick and an RBI double to Jeff Mathis, a lifetime .200 hitter. Mathis’ blast to deep left-center scored Kendrick with the run that put the Angels back in the ALCS. So, why did Girardi lift Robertson with two outs and nobody on? The manager had been seen consulting a thick binder in the dugout before changing pitchers, and apparently what he found convinced him to make the change.</p>

<p>“We have all the matchups, and all the scouting reports, and we felt that it was a better matchup for us,” Girardi said in a post-game interview.</p>

<p>As for the specific 11th-inning matchups, Kendrick had never faced Aceves and was 1-for-2 against Robertson. Mathis hadn’t faced Robertson and was 1-for-2 against Aceves. Nothing overly significant in those numbers.</p>

<p>According to Tyler Kepner of <em>The New York Times</em>, the decision wasn’t based on numbers, but on the difference in pitches that Robertson and Aceves throw. Kepner noted that Aceves “throws a wider variety of pitches than Robertson, who has only a fastball and a curve.</p>

<p>“Robertson’s fastball has a natural cut to it, but he does not throw a traditional cutter like Aceves, who attacked Kendrick with that pitch. Kendrick took four pitches -- one for a strike -- then lashed a single on the ground up the middle.”</p>

<p>After Kendrick had homered and tripled in earlier at-bats, the Yankees were probably looking for a groundball off a cutter from Aceves. The grounder Aceves induced skipped past him and through the infield, however, setting up Mathis’ game-winning shot to the wall in left-center. </p>

<p>As a former catcher, Girardi may be more likely than other managers to make such a decision based on a pitcher’s arsenal. In fact, the Yankees skipper has been quick to make pitching changes to set up certain matchups throughout the playoffs, but was he guilty of over-managing when he yanked Robertson?</p>

<p>Sometimes you don’t fix what isn’t broken. That’s a pet peeve of this writer, who doesn’t like to see a manager pull a reliever who is cruising along, especially if he’s dominating hitters. Sometimes a lefty-righty matchup doesn’t look like it matters. Sometimes the setup guy is so dominant, it seems unnecessary to change pitchers simply because the ninth inning is the closer’s domain.</p>

<p>Still, managers tend to make the predictable moves, regardless of the success of a pitcher, because they don’t like to be second-guessed. That’s especially true when every game counts in October. In this case, Girardi’s move was a bit unorthodox, outside the box, but it seemed to be a case of over-managing.</p>

<p>That’s not to say Robertson was lights out, but the ease with which he retired both Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales suggested he was just as likely to succeed against the bottom of the Angels lineup as Aceves. Facing Aceves, however, Kendrick and Mathis completed the best postseason performances of their careers.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Fumbling Angels Must Rebound at Home vs. Yankees</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/fumbling_angels_must_rebound_a.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1140" title="Fumbling Angels Must Rebound at Home vs. Yankees" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1140</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-19T19:19:30Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-19T23:20:45Z</updated>
    
    <summary>What’s happened to the Los Angeles Angels? They have been one of the better defensive teams in the majors this season, and a Mike Scioscia club is usually a heady bunch not prone to mental mistakes. Yet, on two miserable...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>What’s happened to the Los Angeles Angels? They have been one of the better defensive teams in the majors this season, and a Mike Scioscia club is usually a heady bunch not prone to mental mistakes.</p>

<p>Yet, on two miserable nights in the Bronx, the Angels fumbled the ball. They committed three errors in the ALCS opener on Friday, a 4-1 loss, and that didn’t include the easy flyball off the bat of Hideki Matsui that inexplicably fell between infielders Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar in the first inning. With Johnny Damon racing home from second base on the play, someone should have been charged with an error on what should have been the third out of the opening frame.</p>

<p>A throwing error by left fielder Juan Rivera already had allowed Damon to advance to second, and the Angels were guilty of two errors when the Yankees tacked on an insurance run in the sixth inning. The biggest surprise might have been the miscue by center fielder Torii Hunter, who raced toward the infield and mishandled a grounder as he attempted to make a play on Melky Cabrera at the plate. Hunter had been charged with just one error all season. </p>

<p>The Angels have recorded three errors in a game only 50 times in the nearly 1,700 games managed by Scioscia. That’s a mere three percent of all games, regular season and postseason, and they saved No. 50 for the worst time. Not only is it October, but the Angels did against the Yankees, the team that averaged a major league-high 5.65 runs per game during the 2009 season. It’s the last team you give extra outs, as the Yanks will make you pay.</p>

<p>Although Game 2 went better for the Angels, they committed two more errors, marking only the seventh time in the last five seasons they had multiple errors in consecutive games. Los Angeles should have had a “W” after scratching for an 11th-inning run that gave them a 3-2 lead. That lead disappeared in the bottom half of the inning on an 0-2 mistake pitch from closer Brian Fuentes, which Alex Rodriguez deposited into the seats in right field. </p>

<p>Two innings later, another mistake cost the Angels the game. With Yankees on first and second with one out in the 13th, Cabrera stroked a grounder to the left of second baseman Maicer Izturis. The second sacker had made just four errors all year, but throwing across his body, Izturis’ errant toss to second base provided only the sixth walkoff error in postseason history. Shades of Bill Buckner.</p>

<p>The real error here was a mental one. The Angels simply needed an out on the play, as there was no chance of turning two. Throwing out Cabrera at first base would have worked just fine, leaving two runners in scoring position with two out. It would have been up to Ervin Santana to retire Jorge Posada to end the threat.</p>

<p>Today the Angels return home, where temps will run 30-40 degrees higher and the home team is 51-32, including the postseason. That’s not to say the weather can be blamed for the Angels’ poor defensive play, though it’s a shame teams play a six-month season and then toil for championships in entirely different conditions. </p>

<p>Bouncing back won’t be easy for the Angels. In the postseason, the Yankees are 14-3 all-time when winning the first two games of a best-of-seven series. These Yankees score in bunches, and if they have a late lead, it’s nearly impossible to beat Mariano Rivera.</p>

<p>The Angels must win Monday’s Game 3 to keep New York out of the driver’s seat. And maybe the next two home games as well. The Yankees are 35-8 at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, including playoff games, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 there. </p>

<p>With New York poised to have home-field advantage the rest of the way -- and Game 4 of the World Series scheduled for Nov. 1 -- we may be calling the Yankees the Boys of Winter when the postseason ends. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Closers Were the Difference for LDS Winners</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/closers_were_the_difference_fo.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1135" title="Closers Were the Difference for LDS Winners" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1135</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-13T22:52:58Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-13T23:27:22Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The ninth inning was a potential hazard for a few playoff teams with struggling closers, and the biggest question mark was the Phillies’ Brad Lidge. He posted a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008,...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The ninth inning was a potential hazard for a few playoff teams with struggling closers, and the biggest question mark was the Phillies’ Brad Lidge. He posted a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008, but didn’t come close to that performance this season. The right-hander was 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA, 31 saves and 11 blown chances. Opponents batted .301 against him in 2009, more than 100 points higher than they did a year ago.</p>

<p>The Phillies closed out the first round Monday night, with Lidge recording the final out of a 5-4 come-from-behind victory that eliminated the Rockies in four games. Philadelphia left-hander Scott Eyre started the ninth inning, but gave up singles to left-handed hitters Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton before Lidge came on to strike out Troy Tulowitzki to nail down his second save of the series.</p>

<p>Lidge retired Tulowitzki on a flyball to finish Game 3 the previous night, but had walked Gonzalez and Helton to put a 6-5 lead at risk in his one inning of work. The walks suggest his control may remain an issue down the road, but he came through while more dependable closers struggled in the LDS.</p>

<p>Four of the 13 first-round games were decided in the ninth inning, and a fifth went 11 innings, so it’s little surprise that the closers on the four teams to advance posted markedly better numbers than the four on losing teams.  </p>

<p><strong>First-Round Closers</strong></p>

<p><strong>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IP. . . . . . .ERA. . . . . .SV. . . . . . BS</strong><br />
Mariano Rivera, NYY. . . . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0<br />
Brian Fuentes, LAA. . . . . . . . . .1.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0<br />
Brad Lidge, Phi . . . . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0<br />
Jonathan Broxton, LAD. . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .2.45. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0</p>

<p>Jonathan Papelbon, Bos. . . . . .2.0. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1<br />
Huston Street, Col. . . . . . . . . .2.2. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .1<br />
Joe Nathan, Min. . . . . . . . . . .2.0. . . . . . . 9.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1<br />
Ryan Franklin, StL. . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . . 0.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1</p>

<p>The four closers on LCS teams combined to allow just one run over 10.1 innings, and opponents were limited to a .205 average (8-for-39). The four closers on losing clubs allowed 10 more hits and a .462 mark (18-for-39). They combined to give up nine earned runs in eight innings, blew four saves and took four losses.</p>

<p>Colorado’s Huston Street, who blew just two saves all year, absorbed two of those losses in the final two games of the Rockies-Phillies LDS. The most devastating was Monday’s series finale, when the Rockies tallied three runs in the eighth inning to take a 4-2 lead. Street came on and couldn’t retire Philadelphia’s best hitters. Ryan Howard doubled home two runs to tie the game, and Jayson Werth put the Phils in front with a base hit that scored Howard.</p>

<p>The Game 3 struggles of one of the game’s best closers on Sunday were a reminder how unpredictable the game can be. Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon hadn’t allowed a run in 26 postseason innings before the Angels scored three times in the ninth off the right-hander to overcome a 6-4 deficit and complete a sweep of the Red Sox. Papelbon was one strike away from extending the series against three different batters, but after an intentional walk to Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero singled home two runs for a 7-6 series-clinching victory. </p>

<p>Also at less than his best last week was Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, who struggled to command his fastball. He often couldn’t get his breaking stuff over either, and he blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning of Game 2. It was a chance to take a split home to the noisy and Twin-friendly Metrodome, but Alex Rodriguez torched him for a long home run. The Yankees won 4-3 in the 11th on a homer from Mark Teixeira off Jose Mijares.  </p>

<p>The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin was terrific all season until a September crash, and the right-hander couldn’t recapture his touch in the postseason. Although he didn’t allow an earned run, Franklin gave up three hits and walked two en route to recording just four outs in the Cards-Dodgers LDS. He was victimized by Matt Holliday’s inability to catch James Loney’s sinking liner, but at the time there were two outs and the Cardinals were just one out away from capturing Game 2. Franklin then allowed two walks and two hits, and Mark Loretta’s bloop single gave the Dodgers two wins at home. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Earning a Split on the Road Pivotal to Winning LDS</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/earning_a_split_on_the_road_pi.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1134" title="Earning a Split on the Road Pivotal to Winning LDS" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1134</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-12T02:19:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-12T02:25:40Z</updated>
    
    <summary>The direction of two LDS turned on a dime in the ninth inning of Game 2. On Thursday night, the St. Louis Cardinals were one out from going home with a split of the first two games in Los Angeles....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>The direction of two LDS turned on a dime in the ninth inning of Game 2.</p>

<p>On Thursday night, the St. Louis Cardinals were one out from going home with a split of the first two games in Los Angeles. The Cardinals led the Dodgers, 2-1 with two outs in the ninth, when Matt Holliday lost James Loney’s sinking liner in the lights. Loney reached second base, and the Dodgers had two men on after Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin walked Casey Blake. Ronnie Belliard singled up the middle to tie the game, and pinch-hitter Mark Loretta fisted the game-winning hit into short center to secure a 3-2 victory and a two-game edge in the best-of-five NLDS. </p>

<p>The following night, the Minnesota Twins were within three outs of a 3-1 victory that would have sent them home to that visitor’s nightmare, the Metrodome, with a split at Yankee Stadium. Twins closer Joe Nathan, dependable all season long, struggled with command and gave up a game-tying home run to Alex Rodriguez in the ninth. Two innings later, Yankees first Mark Teixeira drilled a leadoff home run off Jose Mijares to put New York up two games to none. </p>

<p>The difference between going home with a split -- with two of the last three games at home -- and being on the brink of elimination can be a fine one. And with the five-game LDS, a team’s fate can be all but sealed in the second game. </p>

<p>There’s something wrong with teams playing a six-month marathon, and then having a successful season on the brink in just two playoff games. Contenders lose two in a row numerous times over the course of the season, and two off days shouldn’t doom a team in October. It’s the kiss of death to open the postseason with two losses under the current LDS format. </p>

<p>Major League Baseball came to its senses when it made the best-of-five LCS a best-of-seven affair in 1985, yet it adopted the best-of-five LDS when the wild-card berth was added. </p>

<p>Television controls the postseason schedule, and programming considerations give us all kinds of extra days off that aren’t necessary. Those off days should be used to give teams and fans a best-of-seven LDS. The best-of-five format undercuts what a team has earned over the grind of a six-month season.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Game No. 163 Was One to Remember</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/game_no_163_was_one_to_remembe.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1133" title="Game No. 163 Was One to Remember" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1133</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-11T23:14:38Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-11T23:30:48Z</updated>
    
    <summary>What was to be the Metrodome finale on Sunday, Oct. 4, was a long-anticipated trip from Chicago to Minneapolis for this writer. It was the game played two days later that I never could have foreseen during the summer months,...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>What was to be the Metrodome finale on Sunday, Oct. 4, was a long-anticipated trip from Chicago to Minneapolis for this writer. It was the game played two days later that I never could have foreseen during the summer months, a game that for drama and intensity, tops every one of the hundreds of baseball games I’ve witnessed live.</p>

<p>Not that Game No. 163 was a disappointment. For much of the summer, it loomed as nothing more than a farewell ceremony featuring the Twins from the 1987 and 1991 World Series champions. </p>

<p>It wasn’t until the season was down to its final seven days that the Sunday finale had a realistic chance to be relevant. By then, the Twins had endured a 4-12 slump at the start of August, a stretch in which the rotation generously posted a 7.33 ERA. Minnesota fell seven games back of the Tigers on Sept. 6, and overtaking the first-place Tigers seemed even less likely when Justin Morneau was lost for the season six days later. </p>

<p>Michael Cuddyer and several less-heralded Twins made up for the lost run production. Rookie starter Brian Duensing spun three scoreless outings in September, the pitching was markedly better, and the Twins closed with a 17-4 surge despite missing their slugging first baseman.</p>

<p>The final week began with a four-game set with the Tigers in Detroit. The Twins won the series opener and closed the gap to a single game, but a series split left them two games back with just three to play against the Royals. The final Metrodome contest loomed as little more than pomp and circumstance once again. </p>

<p>The Twins took care of business in the first two games of the weekend series, and the AL Central race was deadlocked after the White Sox beat the Tigers for a second time on Saturday. The long-anticipated Metrodome finale became the biggest game of the season.<br />
 <br />
To close out a week of virtual Game 7s, the Twins won convincingly on Sunday. Jason Kubel stroked a pair of three-run homers and Delmon Young added two solo shots in a 13-4 win that forced Tuesday’s tiebreaker.  </p>

<p>Only for a brief moment was Sunday’s contest in question. The Twins jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first three frames, but the Royals’ three-run sixth inning closed the gap to 8-4. The rally ended with the bases loaded and the potential tying run at the plate after Jon Rauch took over as Minnesota’s fourth pitcher of the inning. He caught Kansas City’s best hitter, Billy Butler, looking at a called third strike to end the threat. The Twins scored in each of the final four innings to put another must-win away.</p>

<p>The Detroit-Minnesota tiebreaker game, moved to Tuesday with the Packers and Vikings and a guy name Favre occupying the Metrodome on Monday night, was one to remember. It was one of those classics, stuffed with dramatic twists and turns, and game-changing situations that were a matter of inches from going the other way.</p>

<p>It might not have looked that way early on, as the Tigers jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the third inning, thanks to an RBI single by Magglio Ordonez and a two-run homer off Scott Baker by Miguel Cabrera. The Twins closed the gap with a run in their half of the third, and pulled to within a run when Jason Kubel launched his third homer in two games with two outs in the bottom of the sixth. </p>

<p>The Tigers threatened in the top of the seventh, when the Twins used four pitchers to keep the game a one-run affair. A bloop base hit by Detroit’s Curtis Granderson put runners on first and third with two outs, but right-hander Matt Guerrier relieved Jose Mijares and induced an inning-ending grounder from Placido Polanco. </p>

<p>In Minnesota’s half of the seventh, Nick Punto led off with a single, and the Twins jumped in front for the first time in the game when Orlando Cabrera connected on reliever Zach Miner’s first pitch and drove it over the wall in left for a home run. </p>

<p>The Metrodome was as noisy as it had been all day when the Twins took that 4-3 lead, though it took only minutes for Magglio Ordonez to silence the crowd and suck the life out of the building. After the Twins were retired, Ordonez opened the eighth with a home run off Guerrier to make it 4-4. </p>

<p>The Twins had been six outs from a postseason berth. The game’s dramatic shift heightened the intensity, magnified the intrigue. The game seemed to hinge on every pitch, and a host of close calls, misplays and clutch plays made it an unforgettable experience.</p>

<p>The Tigers threatened to take the lead first. In the top of the ninth, Detroit shortstop Ramon Santiago dragged a bunt down the first-base line for a hit, and the Tigers had men on the corners when Granderson followed with a single to right off Twins closer Joe Nathan. </p>

<p>Now the Twins were on the verge of being three outs from elimination, but Nathan struck out Polanco for the first out of Detroit’s ninth. The next batter, Ordonez, lined a shot at shortstop Cabrera, who turned a double play with a bullet to first baseman Michael Cuddyer to retire Granderson. In a manic sprint, the excitable Cabrera high-stepped his way to the Minnesota dugout.</p>

<p>After the Twins threatened but failed to score in their half of the ninth, the Tigers pushed across a run in the 10th. The trouble started when Twins reliever Jesse Crain struck pinch-hitter Aubrey Huff with an 0-2 pitch with one out. Crain bounced back to fan Ryan Raburn for the second out, but a double to left field by Inge scored pinch-runner Don Kelly on a close play at the plate.  </p>

<p>The Twins were right back in it when Tigers left fielder Rayburn made a questionable decision to leave his feet in pursuit of Michael Cuddyer’s sinking liner leading off the bottom of the 10th. Rayburn’s slide came up short, and taking the ball on a bounce would have kept Cuddyer from motoring around to third while Granderson chased down the leadoff triple.</p>

<p>After Delmon Young was retired, Tigers closer Fernando Rodney walked Brendan Harris to put runners on the corners. Third baseman Matt Tolbert, a key player in Minnesota’s late-season surge, bounced a ball up the middle on an 0-2 count. It was within inches of being a possible season-ending double play, but the ball scooted past second baseman Polanco and scored Cuddyer from third. </p>

<p>The game was tied again, and Alexi Casilla, who pinch-ran for Harris, had sprinted into third with the possible game-winning run. Casilla would figure in two key moments of the game, and the first might have made him the goat if the Twins had lost. </p>

<p>When Nick Punto hit a shallow fly to left field, Casilla should have been posted on third base. If the ball drops in, he scores anyway. If the ball is caught, the speedy Casilla is ready to tag up. When Rayburn made the catch, Casilla was moving back into third base with his momentum heading in the wrong direction. Rayburn, with a strong throw home, retired the sliding Casilla on another close play.  </p>

<p>In the top of the 12th with the score still tied at five, the Tigers loaded the bases with one out against Bobby Keppel, a 26-year-old right-hander with little history of success in the majors or high minors. The Twins had burned through their bullpen in the seventh inning, when they trailed 3-2 and were desperate to keep the Tigers from building on their lead. Now they were in a 12th-inning jam with their eighth pitcher of the night on the mound.</p>

<p>After intentionally walking Rayburn to fill the bases, Keppel delivered an inside pitch that forced Brandon Inge off the plate. The Tigers third baseman immediately turned to plate umpire Randy Marsh and insisted the pitch had brushed his jersey. In another possible game-changing situation that came down to an inch or two, Marsh said Inge had not been hit by the pitch and the score remained tied.   </p>

<p>Then Inge hit a chopper over the mound that was a long shot to be an inning-ending double play. Second baseman Nick Punto raced to intercept the ball behind the mound, and while on the run, rifled an accurate, on-line throw that barely beat Miguel Cabrera to the plate for the second out. The threat was snuffed out when Keppel struck out Tigers catcher Gerald Laird on a 3-2 pitch after a lengthy battle.</p>

<p>Carlos Gomez, who had been a defensive replacement for Kubel in the eighth inning, led off the bottom of the 12th with a single off Rodney. Detroit’s closer was pitching in his fourth inning, having entered the game with one out in the Twins’ ninth. The fleet-footed Gomez advanced to second base on Cuddyer’s groundball to Inge at third, putting the potential go-ahead run in scoring position with one out. </p>

<p>Up stepped Casilla, who had lost the starting second-base job after a horrendous start this spring and then spent two lengthy stints in the minors. He was the most unlikely of heroes on a team winning with a number of utility types executing key roles, but Casilla squeezed a hit between the infielders on the right side, sending Gomez around third with the winning run.</p>

<p>The Minnesota dugout emptied and the celebration descended on Gomez at the plate, then headed for Casilla in the middle of the infield. The swarm floated toward third base, where the expressive and fun-loving Gomez could be seen lying on his back briefly at the bag, knees up and hands on his head as if he didn’t believe what had just happened.</p>

<p>The Twins had won their fourth straight elimination game to claim the American League Central crown. They became the first team since the start of divisional play to overcome a three-game deficit with four days left in the regular season. </p>

<p>It was one of those sporting events a fan never forgets, a classic game no matter which team won. To have been there was good enough, regardless of the outcome, but in Minnesota, this remarkable game will be forever tied to one of the great finishes in Twins history. </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Ninth Inning a Concern for a Few Playoff Teams</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://blog.stats.com/2009/10/ninth_inning_a_concern_for_a_f.html" />
    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1129" title="Ninth Inning a Concern for a Few Playoff Teams" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1129</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-03T07:10:20Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-03T07:29:29Z</updated>
    
    <summary>As many as four playoff teams may play October baseball with their closers struggling to get people out. After recording a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves without blowing a single opportunity in 2008, Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge has struggled in 2009...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>As many as four playoff teams may play October baseball with their closers struggling to get people out. </p>

<p>After recording a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves without blowing a single opportunity in 2008, Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge has struggled in 2009 and begins the final series of the regular season at 0-8 with a 7.34 ERA, 31 saves and 11 blown chances. </p>

<p>Closer Brian Fuentes has run hot and cold in his first year as an Angel, and has a 5.16 ERA since the All-Star break. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin had been terrific all season, but seemed to run out of gas in September. Opposing hitters batted .382 against him.</p>

<p>If the Detroit Tigers prevail in the ongoing American League Central race, they will do it with the wildly inconsistent Fernando Rodney closing games. He’s blown only one save in 37 opportunities in 2009, but has made many of them more exciting and has a 4.88 ERA since the break. The right-hander was 7-for-7 in saves in September, but gave up at least two runs in five of his last 12 appearances. Rodney had a 9.24 September ERA.</p>

<p>Here are September numbers of the key players in those four bullpens. </p>

<p><strong>September Bullpen Performance</strong></p>

<p><strong>Reliever. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IP . . . . .ERA. . . . . .OBA</strong></p>

<p>Fernando Rodney, Det (R). . . . . . . 12.2. . . . .9.24. . . . . .314<br />
Zach Miner, Det (R) . . . . . . . . . . .17.1. . . . .2.08. . . . . .254<br />
Brandon Lyon, Det (R). . . . . . . . . .14.0. . . . .2.57. . . . . .163<br />
Ryan Perry, Det (R). . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0. . . . .4.50. . . . . .273<br />
Jeremy Bonderman, Det (R). . . . . .  6.0. . . . .6.00. . . . . .304</p>

<p>Brian Fuentes, LAA (L). . . . . . . . . 10.0. . . . .4.50. . . . . .310<br />
Matt Palmer, LAA (R)	. . . . . . . . . .13.2. . . . .1.98. . . . . .182<br />
Darren Oliver, LAA (L)	. . . . . . . . .14.0. . . . .2.57. . . . . .250<br />
Kevin Jepsen, LAA (R). . . . . . . . . 14.0. . . . .3.86. . . . . .184<br />
Jason Bulger, LAA (R). . . . . . . . . . 8.0. . . . .2.25. . . . . .172</p>

<p>Brad Lidge, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . . .9.0. . . . .9.00. . . . . .372<br />
Ryan Madson, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . 12.1. . . . .2.92. . . . . .273<br />
Chad Durbin, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . .13.2. . . . .1.98. . . . . .174<br />
Tyler Walker, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . 9.2. . . . .6.52. . . . . .286<br />
Brett Myers, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . .4.2. . . . .5.79. . . . . .222</p>

<p>Ryan Franklin, StL (R). . . . . . . . . .8.1. . . . .7.56. . . . . .382<br />
Blake Hawksworth, StL (R). . . . . . 8.2. . . . .0.00. . . . . .080<br />
Kyle McClellan, StL (R). . . . . . . . 10.1. . . . .0.87. . . . . .182<br />
Jason Motte, StL (R). . . . . . . . . . 8.1. . . . .0.00. . . . . .143<br />
Dennys Reyes, StL (L). . . . . . . . . .9.1. . . . .0.96. . . . . .115</p>

<p>The Phillies have turned save opportunities over to Ryan Madson lately. The right-hander worked a four-out save for a 6-5 victory in Milwaukee on Sunday. Two days later he pitched the final two innings to finish off a 7-4 win over Houston. Brett Myers would be manager Charlie Manuel’s first choice to replace Lidge, but Myers has been out with a strained back muscle and returned to action Thursday after missing nearly three weeks. Manuel said the right-hander looked “rusty” in his return, as did Myers. Ninth-inning duties may fall to Madson.</p>

<p>Two weeks ago, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said he might use right-hander Kevin Jepsen in the ninth inning, along with lefty Fuentes. It hasn’t happened. Jepsen has battled a tired arm recently, while Fuentes has converted six straight save opportunities without giving up a run since Sept. 17.    		<br />
				<br />
Over 31.2 innings in June, July and August combined, Franklin allowed just three runs and successfully closed out 23 of 24 save chances for St. Louis. August was the third month the right-hander didn’t allow a run in 2009, but he blew three of six save opportunities in September and has been extremely hittable. Otherwise, the St. Louis bullpen has been very good of late, but no one is closer-tested.</p>

<p>Then there’s Rodney, who is 36-for-37 in saves, but has dodged bullets all season. Since saves became an official statistic in 1969, no pitcher with at least 25 saves and no more than a single blown chance has posted an ERA of 3.00 or higher. Rodney has a 4.35 mark going into the weekend, after allowing six runs in his last four appearances. His job is probably secure, though you have to wonder if his luck will run out against the best teams in October.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Big Day for Cardinals&apos; Carpenter</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1127" title="Big Day for Cardinals' Carpenter" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1127</id>
    
    <published>2009-10-02T06:48:21Z</published>
    <updated>2009-10-02T06:49:16Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Chris Carpenter’s Thursday afternoon outing in Cincinnati was little more than a tuneup for his first postseason start, but it turned out to be a day to remember. The St. Louis right-hander hit a grand slam in a five-run second...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Chris Carpenter’s Thursday afternoon outing in Cincinnati was little more than a tuneup for his first postseason start, but it turned out to be a day to remember. The St. Louis right-hander hit a grand slam in a five-run second inning, sparking the Cardinals to a 13-0 romp over the Reds.</p>

<p>The Cardinals ace also doubled home a pair of runs in a four-run fifth, setting a franchise record for pitchers by driving in six runs. When he wasn’t busy at the plate, he was working five scoreless innings, allowing three hits and a walk, and striking out six Reds.</p>

<p>It turns out Carpenter also played prophet, according to Rick Hummel of the <em>St. Louis Post-Dispatch</em>, after telling teammates the last few days that he was going to hit a home run in his final regular-season start. That’s something Carpenter had never done in the major leagues, but there he was, rounding first base and pumping his fist after jumping on a first-pitch fastball from Kip Wells with the bases loaded. When Carpenter returned to the dugout, Hummel said the pitcher inquired whether the fist pump was permissible under baseball code. He had the entire bench laughing.</p>

<p>“He had a Bob Gibson type of day,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He beat us pitching and hitting.”</p>

<p>Carpenter became the first Cardinals pitcher since 1920, when RBIs became an official statistic, to have six RBIs in one game. Gibson drove in five runs during a 13-1 win over the New York Mets on July 26, 1973.</p>

<p>If that wasn’t good enough, the 33-year-old veteran improved to 11-0 with a 1.58 ERA against the National League Central in 2009. No pitcher this season has won more games within a division without posting a loss. Only two other hurlers have more won more than five times without a loss. They are Houston’s Roy Oswalt and the Phillies’ J.A. Happ. Oswalt was 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA against the NL West. Happ was 6-0 (2.40 ERA) facing the NL East.</p>

<p>Thursday’s victory was Carpenter’s fourth of the season over the Reds. With a grand slam and six RBIs, which doubled his career total, he improved to 37-12 lifetime against NL Central foes.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>
<entry>
    <title>Does Tracy&apos;s Managerial Success Mean Good Things for 2010 Rockies?</title>
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    <link rel="service.edit" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://blog.stats.com/mt-atom.cgi/weblog/blog_id=1/entry_id=1126" title="Does Tracy's Managerial Success Mean Good Things for 2010 Rockies?" />
    <id>tag:blog.stats.com,2009://1.1126</id>
    
    <published>2009-09-30T10:22:51Z</published>
    <updated>2009-09-30T10:35:21Z</updated>
    
    <summary>Colorado moved closer to a return to the playoffs Tuesday night, defeating Milwaukee in 11 innings to move three games up on Atlanta in the NL wild-card chase. When Chris Iannetta hit a two-run homer off David Weathers, Rockies manager...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Thom Henninger</name>
        
    </author>
            <category term="MLB" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-US" xml:base="http://blog.stats.com/">
        <![CDATA[<p>Colorado moved closer to a return to the playoffs Tuesday night, defeating Milwaukee in 11 innings to move three games up on Atlanta in the NL wild-card chase. When Chris Iannetta hit a two-run homer off David Weathers, Rockies manager Jim Tracy improved to 71-40 (.640) since replacing Clint Hurdle in late May.</p>

<p>The Rockies haven’t even clinched a playoff spot, nor have they found out if they can recreate the October magic that sparked a run to the World Series in 2007. Still, this writer was wondering if a red-hot run by an in-season managerial replacement means great things the following season. </p>

<p>Since the expansion era began in 1961, Tracy is only the 13th in-season appointment to manage at least 50 games and post a .600 winning percentage. Believe it or not, not all of the first 12 returned for a full season after overseeing a big improvement in performance. Not with the managerial version of musical chairs in the Bronx. In 1978, Bob Lemon took over for Billy Martin and led the team to a 48-20 finish (.706), but he was gone after starting 34-31 in 1979. Martin took over for Yogi Berra 16 games into the 1985 season and directed the team to a 91-54 record (.628). After fighting Yankees pitcher Ed Whitson that September, Martin didn’t return in 1986.</p>

<p>So, 10 of the first 12 returned to his team for a majority of its games the next season. Six of those 10 managers with a .600 winning percentage posted winning records in the followup season, but only one won 90 games. That was Whitey Herzog, who took over the Royals late in the 1975 season and directed them to a 41-25 finish (.621). The Herzog-led Royals were 90-72 in 1976 before losing the ALCS to the New York Yankees. It was the first of three straight seasons that Kansas City fell to New York in the LCS. </p>

<p>The only other playoff team in the group is the 2005 Astros, who were 89-73 and lost the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Phil Garner took over for Jimy Williams at the 2004 All-Star break and oversaw a 48-26 surge (.649).</p>

<p>Here are the best regular-season records of those 10 managers who returned for a majority of their teams’ games the following season. </p>

<p><strong>Highest Win Pct in Second Season by In-Season Replacement, Since 1961</strong><br />
<em>(managed at least 50 games with .600 win pct as in-season replacement)</em></p>

<p><strong>Manager. . . . . . . . . .Team. . . . . . .Rec. . . . .Pct</strong><br />
Whitey Herzog. . . . .1976 KC. . . . . 90-72. . . . .556<br />
Phil Garner. . . . . . . 2005 Hou. . . . 89-73. . . . .549<br />
Harvey Kuenn. . . . . 1983 Mil. . . . . 87-75. . . . .537<br />
Billy Hunter. . . . . . .1978 Tex. . . . .86-75. . . . .534<br />
Cito Gaston. . . . . . .1990 Tor. . . . .86-76. . . . .531</p>

<p>The group includes Harvey Kuenn, who guided the Brewers to a fifth-place finish in the American League East in his first full season as a manager in 1983. It was as an in-season replacement for the Brewers in 1982 that Kuenn directed the Brewers to a 72-43 finish and the franchise’s first and only trip to the Fall Classic.</p>]]>
        
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