Brock redux?
Sorry about failing to post last week, as I got caught up in the Fourth of July and other summer festivities here. I spent part of the Fourth trying to explain the significance of the holiday to my Japanese neighbor, who ended up wishing me a “Happy Revolution!” a couple times. I didn’t have the heart to correct him, and besides, I liked that salutation so much that I decided to adopt it. So, a belated “Happy Revolution!” to all of you.
Well, none of that has anything to do with baseball, especially considering that my friend is one of the 929 Japanese who are not rabid baseball fans. But I did take the time to start reading David Halberstam’s October 1964, and while I haven’t finished it yet, I was immediately struck by some passages in the Prologue:
“(T)he young Chicago Cub outfielder, rejoining his team in Arizona, was determined that this season he would finally make his breakthrough . . . His employers were no longer confident of his abilities – and with good reason, for he had played well below his potential so far.
“Some of his teammates thought him withdrawn, and they found it hard to gauge his emotional state. Some in the press and in the stands considered him too casual about his job, but that was a misperception . . . he had wound himself so tight that he was unable to utilize his great natural abilities . . .
“The coaches saw him as a leadoff hitter, but like most hitters, he believed himself a power hitter when he first reached the major leagues . . . Suddenly he was supposed to hit at the top of the order, and the whole purpose of each at bat changed: he was to get on base, rather than to drive the ball. Some of the Cubs coaches were trying to mold him into becoming . . . a classic leadoff hitter who knew how to hit to the opposite field and how to take a lot of pitches and draw walks from pitchers . . . He hoped the coaches would not try to mess with him anymore, that they would just let him hit. He feared that the Cub management might send him back to the minor leagues for more seasoning.”
This refers, of course, to Lou Brock, who was traded from the Cubs on June 15, 1964 to the St. Louis Cardinals. But anyone who has been following the Cubs the past few years can easily apply this depiction to Corey Patterson in recent years. This comparison chills the blood of veteran Cub fans everywhere. Brock was packaged with non-descript pitchers Jack Spring and Paul Toth for an equally non-descript outfielder, Doug Clemens, and two pitchers who had already seen their best seasons, Bobby Shantz and Ernie Broglio. Brock and Broglio, who had won 60 games for the Redbirds the previous four years with a 3.15 ERA, were the central figures in the trade. While Brock went on to carve out a Hall of Fame career with St. Louis, the sore-armed Broglio posted a 7-19, 5.40 record for the Cubs before making his final major league appearance on July 2, 1966. It was said that after Broglio figuratively hung up his spikes that day, he gathered them, along with his uniform and all his other equipment, and literally set fire to the whole kit and kaboodle. Going down in flames, so to speak.
The Broglio-Brock trade did not seem like so lopsided at the time, however. Broglio had won 18 games in 1963, and Brock was viewed as the epitome of promise unfulfilled. Like Patterson forty-odd years later, Brock displayed a rare combination of speed and power – he is one of three players to have homered into the center field bleachers of the Polo Grounds, nearly 500 feet from home plate. His averages with the Cubs prior to the deal were quite similar to Patterson’s tenure on the team:
w/ ChC AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS SB
Brock 1207 183 310 52 20 20 86 88 261 .257 .306 .383 .689 50
Patterson 2176 293 549 99 21 70 231 111 552 .252 .293 .414 .707 86
Well, you know how the Lou Brock story ends. He hit .348 through the end of 1964 after joining the Cardinals and helped them to their first World Series crown in 18 years. While it does not appear that the 2006 Orioles are on track to become a team of destiny, Patterson has enjoyed a renaissance with the Baltimore Orioles this year, after leaving the unfriendly confines of Wrigley Field. He has played in 80 of the Orioles’ 90 games this year, so let’s compare his stats with Brock’s first 80 games with the Cardinals in 1964:
80 games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS SB
Brock 325 64 114 17 6 8 33 21 68 .351 .390 .514 .904 30
Patterson 277 44 77 9 1 10 35 14 52 .278 .315 .426 .741 31
Not much of a comparison there, especially taking into account a couple factors: (1) Brock was 25 years old in 1964; Patterson will turn 27 in August, and (2) Analysis of these stats must take into account the era in which they played. Although 1964 was best hitting year of the “modern deadball era” of 1963-68, hitters did not fare nearly as well then as they are this year. Brock registered numbers far above the league average, while Patterson is actually performing below the norm:
1964 AVG OBP SLG OPS
Brock .315 .358 .464 .822
(w/ ChC) .251 .300 .390 .690
(w/ StL) .348 .387 .527 .914
NL .254 .311 .374 .685
2006 AVG OBP SLG OPS
Patterson .278 .315 .426 .741
AL .273 .337 .431 .777
It would appear that, despite apparent historical parallels, the Cubs will not remember trading Patterson in the same manner as the Brock deal. There is still time for Corey to develop, of course, and he has cut down drastically on his strikeouts, but he is not currently on course for an anointment in Cooperstown.
One last note: It's a good thing that Patterson was shipped off to the American League, if indeed he were to emulate Brock in future meetings with his old club. Brock made the Cubs his personal punching bag throughout his career, posting better numbers against them than any other team:
Brock AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS SB
vs. Cubs 1024 177 342 64 12 20 103 67 174 .334 .378 .479 .857 98
vs. others 9308 1433 2681 422 129 129 797 694 1567 .285 .339 .403 .742 840
The greater portion of that damage was done the first four years after leaving Chicago:
1964-67 AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS SB
Vs. Cubs 270 62 107 16 5 15 42 6 41 .396 .412 .659 1.071 26
If he bore any animosity against the Cubs organization, Lou seemed to get most of the bile out of his system after a few years. So, maybe Cubs management did learn something from the Brock trade, not only dealing Patterson out of the division but out of the National League altogether.
4D
PS: Please excuse the sloppiness of the tables. We'll have to figure out a way to drop them in here so they are more easily deciphered.