When the New York Yankees secured their 27th World Series title with a 7-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, it was eight years to the day that Luis Gonzalez delivered a broken-bat single off Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2001 Fall Classic. That hit gave the underdog Arizona Diamondbacks the championship, but last night, the future Hall of Fame closer was on the mound for the final out of the baseball season, as the Yankees won their first World Series in nine years.

It was the fourth time Rivera had closed out a Series-clinching victory for New York. Although Rivera worked 5.1 scoreless innings against the Phillies, the rest of the Yankees pitching staff had given up 11 home runs, 23 extra-base hits and a lofty .464 slugging percentage in the six-game affair. Surprisingly, Philadelphia posted better power numbers across the board than New York, but Rivera’s teammates repeatedly came through with the big hit in key situations.

The Yankees topped the Phillies by batting .302 with runners in scoring position, driving in 21 runs in 43 at-bats. World Series MVP Hideki Matsui was 3-for-3 with four RBIs in those situations. He tied a major league record with six RBIs in Wednesday’s Game 6, delivering a two-run homer in the second inning, a two-out two-run single in the third, and a two-run double in the fifth. If it wasn’t already a perfect night for Matsui, only a two-run triple could have made it better. His Game 6 performance matched the six RBIs recorded by long-time Yankees second baseman Bobby Richardson in Game 3 of the 1960 World Series.

Matsui wasn’t the only Yankee who delivered in the clutch. Jorge Posada was 3-for-7 with a team-leading five RBIs with RISP. Johnny Damon was 2-for-6 with four ribbies in those situations, though he will be remembered most for stealing both second and third base on the same play in Game 4.

Leading off the ninth inning in Philadelphia, with the score tied 4-4, Damon prevailed in a remarkable nine-pitch at-bat by singling off Phillies closer Brad Lidge. With Mark Teixeira at the plate and the Phillies playing an exaggerated shift to the right side, Damon stole second base and kept running when he saw no one was positioned to cover third.

Perhaps Lidge was rattled by Damon’s rare double steal, as he then hit Teixeira with a pitch. Alex Rodriguez followed with a two-run double, and the Yankees went up three games to one with a 7-4 victory.

That ninth inning in Game 4 was a turning point in the Series. The Yankees had held a 4-2 lead, but Chase Utley narrowed the deficit to one with a seventh-inning homer. When Pedro Feliz tied the game with an eighth-inning blast off Joba Chamberlain, the Phillies were positioned to tie the Series with Game 5 also in Philadelphia.

The Phillies rebounded to stay alive in Game 5, but they were 0-for-6 with RISP and stranded 13 runners in Wednesday’s final game. Despite a record-tying five World Series home runs from Utley, they weren’t able to buck a recent trend that they managed to overcome a year ago.

Since 1982, the team with home-field advantage has won 21 of 27 World Series. Last year’s Phillies were one of the six clubs to overcome their opponent’s home-field advantage in this stretch. The others were the 1984 Tigers, 1992 Blue Jays, 1999 Yankees, 2003 Marlins and 2006 Cardinals.

As talented as the 2009 Yankees were, winning twice at Yankee Stadium to close out the season was too much to ask of the Phillies. And history wasn’t on their side in that regard, either. Clinching a World Series title on the road in a sixth or seventh game has been nearly impossible since the Dodgers won Game 6 and the World Series at Yankee Stadium in 1981. Since then, the home team has posted a 19-3 record in Games 6 and 7.

That’s why the All-Star Game shouldn’t determine home-field advantage in October. Still, the Phillies lost the World Series to the Yankees for other reasons.

The top two hitters in their lineup batted .200 and scored only six runs. Cleanup man Ryan Howard didn’t produce and the Phillies as a team failed to hit in the clutch. On top of that, the pitching staff struggled in the biggest games of the year. The rotation looked like a difference-maker going into the playoffs, but it posted a 5.20 ERA against the Yankees. The bullpen, with a 5.74 ERA and an .844 opponent OPS, was even worse.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If the New York Yankees win their first World Series title in nine years this week, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will face an offseason of chatter about his decision to start Joe Blanton in Game 4. The Yankees turned to CC Sabathia on three days’ rest, but Manuel chose to go with Blanton and give staff ace Cliff Lee four days off before his Game 5 assignment.

The second-guessers are busy already, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan called it a “stupid decision.” He also took Lee to task for not pushing for the start when Manuel asked the left-hander if he was willing. Lee, who agreed to go if called upon, reportedly said it was his job to “pitch when Charlie wants me to pitch. . . I’m not going to try to second-guess or anything like that. I would have been happy either way.”

Passan’s response: “Aces don’t say that,” adding that “Lee should have walked into Manuel’s office, locked the door and said he wasn’t leaving until promised the Game 4 start.”

That’s not Lee’s personality. Unlike a lot of No. 1 starters, he’s not the fiery type. He also doesn’t have experience pitching on three days’ rest. He’s never done it, and that may have made Lee reluctant to force the issue. The game is loaded with confident and cocky players who would have pushed for the assignment, even if they had failed at it in the past, but Lee isn’t one of them.

Sure, Sabathia is now 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA and .232 opponent batting average in nine career starts on three days’ rest. The guy’s proven to be a workhorse who can handle short-rest gigs. He’s not the norm, however. Over the last five seasons combined, including playoffs, major league pitchers starting on less than four days’ rest have a losing record, a 5.02 ERA and .278 OBA. In this same span, those numbers are 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and .278 OBA in the postseason.

It’s a clash of old school vs. new school. The old school approach says that under the circumstances, the ace should step up. If he’s hurt, rub some dirt on it. If he’s tired, get over it and give your team the win it needs. The numbers, though, demonstrate the importance of four days off for starters.

Despite the ugly numbers, Passan notes that most of those short-rest starts have gone reasonably well. That’s not altogether surprising, as it’s usually the best starters who get called on to pitch on short rest in October. Yet, the overall numbers suggest the best are compromised and the chance of a disastrous outing by a staff ace multiplies. Plus, Manuel was in the dugout a year ago, when Blanton gave the Phillies three solid outings in the postseason and was masterful in winning last year’s World Series Game 4.

Should Manuel have changed his mind and turned to Lee after the Phillies lost Game 3 at home? Maybe. On the other hand, if Brad Lidge had recorded the final out of the ninth inning last night before the Yankees rallied for three runs, Manuel’s decision might look like a winner today.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies returned home after splitting the first two games of the World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies scratched for a run in the bottom of the ninth to claim a one-run victory in Game 3, then won two more at home to win a five-game affair.

The Phillies didn’t repeat their Game 3 success last night, as Cole Hamels struggled with command again in an 8-5 loss to the New York Yankees. History tells us it’s a pivotal loss.

Teams have split the first two games of a best-of-seven World Series 51 times prior to this fall’s Yankees-Phillies matchup. The winner of Game 3 has prevailed in 36 -- or 71 percent -- of those 51 World Series.

Tonight’s Game 4 looks to favor the Yankees, as they send CC Sabathia to the mound against Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton. New York manager Joe Girardi is turning to his Game 1 starter on three days’ rest, while Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has committed to using four starters in the Series and calls on Blanton.

Blanton was successful in Game 4 a year ago, working six innings of a 10-2 victory over the Rays. On Sunday night he faces the dangerous Yankees, a team he has never defeated in four career starts as a member of the Oakland Athletics.

Sabathia is 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in eight career starts following three days off. Opponents have batted just .228 against him in those outings. Two of those starts have been in the postseason, and they include eight solid innings against the Angels in Game 4 of the ALCS on Oct. 20. The Yankees took a three-games-to-one lead with Sabathia holding the Angels to five hits and a single run in eight innings of a 10-1 victory.

The Yankees southpaw has given up just five earned runs in four postseason starts this fall. The only time he has given up more than a single earned run or taken a loss was World Series Game 1 on Wednesday, when he was touched for two solo homers by Chase Utley.

Hamels’ loss in Game 3 may have Manuel second-guessing whether to stick with Blanton tonight. His Game 1 starter Cliff Lee could be used on three days’ rest, something the left-hander has never done in his big league career.

Saturday’s loss was just the second postseason defeat at home since the Phillies started their push to the World Series title a year ago. They are now 11-2 at Citizens Bank Park in this span, with the only other loss coming against Colorado in Game 2 of this year’s NLDS.

The Phillies can’t afford to lose two in a row before the home crowd, or their season will be all but finished. Not only do they need a strong outing from Blanton, they need Ryan Howard to break out of his funk.

Howard and Alex Rodriguez had been the big guns for their teams going into the World Series, and together they were 2-for-17 with 12 strikeouts in the first two games. A-Rod broke through with a two-run homer off a camera down the right-field line in Game 3, his first hit of the Series, while Howard was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. The Phillies slugger has now fanned in seven of his last eight at-bats.

Howard isn’t the only struggling Phillie. The top four hitters in the Philadelphia lineup -- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Utley and Howard -- are collectively 8-for-45 (.178) in the Series. Rollins had the sole hit among the group in Game 3, and that isn’t going to cut it in Game 4.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Backed by solid outings from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, the Philadelphia Phillies have shown they aren’t going to roll over for the New York Yankees, who are widely perceived as the favorite in the 2009 World Series.

Now the Phillies need a strong performance from the rotation member who has been the biggest question mark this postseason. That would be Cole Hamels, who was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series a year ago.

Unlike 2008, when Hamels was terrific during the second half, the 25-year-old left-hander has struggled down the stretch this year. He’s 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA and .317 OBA in his last six starts, dating to Sept 23. There isn’t a quality start in the bunch, and he hasn’t completed six innings his last four times out. His one win was in the opening game of the NLCS, an 8-6 victory in which he allowed four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings -- and nearly surrendered an early 5-1 lead to the Dodgers.

Hamels has allowed six home runs in three postseason starts, three of them in his last outing in Game 5 of the NLCS. Three of those six longballs have been to left-handed hitters James Loney and Andre Ethier, and lefties are batting .600 (9-for-15) with a double, three homers and two walks against him in the playoffs.

That doesn’t bode well facing the Yankees, as Hamels could make the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano look like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. After all, the Yankees already have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter.

Hamels has been markedly better at home this season, but so far in the playoffs, home vs. road hasn’t mattered in his three outings. He has a 6.75 ERA both at Citizens Bank Park and on the road. Hitters are batting .324/.333/.703 against him in Philadelphia, and .333/.360/.625 in Los Angeles, where he made his only road start of the postseason.

The Phillies made the decision to give Martinez the Yankee Stadium assignment in Game 2, setting up Hamels for a start at home. If the World Series goes seven games, however, Hamels still could get a pressure-packed turn in the Bronx.

Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel has just announced right-hander Joe Blanton will pitch Game 4 in Philadelphia. If Manuel’s starters work on normal rest and games aren’t postponed by weather, Hamels projects to pitch Game 7. Whether the southpaw rebounds this week could go a long way in determining whether the Phillies become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees nine years ago.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before opening the 2009 World Series in the Bronx on Wednesday. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days and were swept by the Boston Red Sox. Time off worked against the hottest team in baseball that fall, and it also could be detrimental to the Phillies, who have won six of their last seven games.

Since the LCS was added to the postseason in 1969, Philadelphia is the fifth team to sit for six or more days before the start of the World Series. The 2007 Rockies were the most recent team to endure such a layoff, and their eight days of rest and relaxation are the most in this era.

Two of the previous four teams with layoffs of at least six days went on to win the World Series, but a look at the stats suggests the downtime worked against a team's hitters in Game 1.

Game 1 Hitting Stats for Teams with 6+ Days Off before WS Opener
(since 1969)

Team. . . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . R. . . . . H. . . . . Avg. . . . .. . . . .Dec
1995 Braves. . . . . . . 25. . . . . .3. . . . . .3 . . . . .120. . . . . . . . Win 3-2
1996 Yankees. . . . . .31. . . . . .1. . . . . .4 . . . . .129. . . . . . . . Lose 12-1
2006 Tigers . . . . . . .32. . . . . .2. . . . . .4 . . . . .125. . . . . . . . Lose 7-2
2007 Rockies . . . . . .32. . . . . .1. . . . . .6 . . . . .188. . . . . . . . Lose 13-1

The 1995 Braves were the only team to pull out a win in Game 1, thanks to Greg Maddux outdueling Cleveland’s Orel Hershiser in a matchup of former Cy Young Award winners. Atlanta won despite picking up just three hits in the game. Maddux allowed only two in a complete-game victory. The Braves also won Game 2 behind a strong outing from Tom Glavine, and they went on to claim a six-game affair that was the only World Series triumph of the 1990s Braves.

The following fall, the Yankees lost just once in the ALDS and ALCS combined and had six days off before facing Atlanta in the World Series. John Smoltz was masterful in Game 1, holding the Yankees to a single run on two hits through six innings. The Braves scored 12 times off Andy Pettitte and four relievers. Atlanta claimed its fifth straight win in Game 2, but the Yankees bounced back with four consecutive victories to take the Series in six games.

In 2006, the Detroit Tigers waited six days to face the St. Louis Cardinals, who needed seven games to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS and had one day off before Game 1 in Detroit. The Tigers managed just four hits off Cardinals rookie Anthony Reyes, who went eight innings in a 7-2 victory. The Tigers bounced back in Game 2 at home, but ended the Series with three losses in a row in St. Louis.

The 2007 Rockies scratched for six hits and a run off Boston’s Josh Beckett in Game 1. They batted .210 and scored a total of 10 runs in the Red Sox sweep.

History suggests the long layoff may impact Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday, when the Phillies must solve Sabathia. It’s less likely, however, to work against the Phillies over the course of the Series. Although losing Game 1 to the talented Yankees isn’t the preferred way to start the Series, the success of the 1995 Braves and 1996 Yankees suggests the offensive production of this deep Philadelphia lineup shouldn’t suffer long-term from the additional rest.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 6:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After blowing a 4-0 lead late in Game 5 of the ALCS, the Los Angeles Angels waged an impressive comeback to force a Game 6 back in the Bronx. The task of staying alive gets harder, though, for Los Angeles.

The Angels must win both games at Yankee Stadium to advance to the World Series, but the New York Yankees have lost back-to-back games at home only twice since a five-game losing streak there at the start in May. And those are the only three streaks of consecutive losses by New York at the Stadium. Since stopping that five-game skid at home, the Yankees have gone 55-17 in their new ballpark, including playoffs.

On top of that, when the Yankees return home to close out a postseason series, up three games to two, they almost always get the job done. They have wrapped up the series eight of the last nine times they have gone back to Yankee Stadium needing a single win. The lone failure, though, is a difficult one to forget. That would be the 2004 ALCS with the Boston Red Sox, when the Yankees won the first three games before losing four straight, including the last two at home.

The 2009 version of the Yankees are feared most because of their dangerous lineup, but New York’s pitching could prove to be the difference in the ALCS. The Yankees are 4-0 at home in October, with the pitching staff posting a 1.71 ERA and limiting opponents to a .215 average. Few games at the new yard are played without someone hitting a home run, but New York pitchers haven’t allowed a longball in four playoff games there.

If wet weather doesn’t shut down the series, the Yankees may shut down the Angels. They throw Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia at the Angels, who have hit .205/.270/.357 against left-handed pitching in the playoffs. Pettitte has a 2.79 ERA at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, and he’s in pursuit of his 16th postseason victory, which would push him past John Smoltz for the most career playoff wins.

If the Angels survive Game 6, they would face Sabathia, who has allowed a total of two earned runs en route to wins in both of his Yankee Stadium outings this postseason. Including his playoff starts, Sabathia is 9-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his home park this season. The big lefty, who hasn’t lost there since July 2, is 7-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last nine home starts going into the weekend.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Manny Ramirez was in the shower when the Los Angeles Dodgers were one out away from tying the NLCS on Monday, but he’ll be towel-dried and ready to go with the Dodgers on the brink of elimination tonight after their walkoff loss in Game 4.

In the long, storied history of the franchise, the Dodgers have never bounced back from a three-games-to-one deficit in six tries. They’ve forced a Game 6 only once after falling behind 3-1, and that will be a difficult task this time around, facing a club that leads all playoff teams by scoring nearly six runs a game.

The runs have come easy because the Phillies have delivered the clutch hit throughout the postseason. They are batting .387 with runners in scoring position, and their 36 RBIs in those situations are twice as many as any other team. The Yankees, who loom as Philadelphia’s World Series opponent, have 18.

How clutch has Philadelphia hitting been? Three times the Phillies have scored in their last at-bat to win games. The first time was in a pivotal Game 3 of their NLDS with Colorado, when a ninth-inning sac fly by Ryan Howard gave the Phillies a 6-5 victory in Denver, and put them up two games to one.

The Phillies turned the trick again the next night, claiming a 5-4 win and eliminating the Rockies with a three-run rally in the ninth off Colorado closer Huston Street. Then there’s Monday’s comeback win, with Jimmy Rollins doubling home two ninth-inning runs with two outs and Manny practicing good hygiene.

The only time the Phillies have been held to fewer than four runs in the postseason is Game 2 of the NLCS, when Los Angeles right-hander Vicente Padilla pitched 7.1 innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory. That’s the Dodgers’ only win in the series, and Padilla gets the call again in Game 5. He has allowed a total of two runs in his last three starts, a stingy stretch that includes seven scoreless innings against St. Louis in the Dodgers’ NLDS clincher.

Despite Padilla’s recent success, he might be better off walking Howard any time the Phillies slugger steps to the plate with runners in scoring position. He’s 6-for-11 with four doubles, a rare triple and 11 RBIs in those situations, and his 14 postseason RBIs lead all big leaguers -- including Alex Rodriguez, who has 11.

Howard has driven home a run in each of Philadelphia’s eight playoff games, tying a major league record set by Yankees great Lou Gehrig nearly 80 years ago. Howard looks to establish a new mark in tonight’s Game 5, but it would be a record he might not hold alone for long.

A-Rod also has RBIs in all eight games New York has played, and he’ll go for nine straight when the Yankees are in line to clinch their own World Series berth on Thursday. If both Howard and Rodriguez come through and their teams square off in the World Series, the ribbie streak could be an interesting subplot.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Yankees manager Joe Girardi had pulled all the right strings during his team’s 5-0 start in the postseason, but he’ll be second-guessed about a few moves he made Monday in the Angels’ 5-4 victory in Game 3.

The most perplexing one came in the decisive 11th inning, after Yankees reliever Dave Robertson recorded two quick out. With right-handed-hitting Howie Kendrick coming to the plate, Girardi pulled his right-hander for another, Alfredo Aceves. Seven pitchers later, the game was over.

Aceves gave up a single to Kendrick and an RBI double to Jeff Mathis, a lifetime .200 hitter. Mathis’ blast to deep left-center scored Kendrick with the run that put the Angels back in the ALCS. So, why did Girardi lift Robertson with two outs and nobody on? The manager had been seen consulting a thick binder in the dugout before changing pitchers, and apparently what he found convinced him to make the change.

“We have all the matchups, and all the scouting reports, and we felt that it was a better matchup for us,” Girardi said in a post-game interview.

As for the specific 11th-inning matchups, Kendrick had never faced Aceves and was 1-for-2 against Robertson. Mathis hadn’t faced Robertson and was 1-for-2 against Aceves. Nothing overly significant in those numbers.

According to Tyler Kepner of The New York Times, the decision wasn’t based on numbers, but on the difference in pitches that Robertson and Aceves throw. Kepner noted that Aceves “throws a wider variety of pitches than Robertson, who has only a fastball and a curve.

“Robertson’s fastball has a natural cut to it, but he does not throw a traditional cutter like Aceves, who attacked Kendrick with that pitch. Kendrick took four pitches -- one for a strike -- then lashed a single on the ground up the middle.”

After Kendrick had homered and tripled in earlier at-bats, the Yankees were probably looking for a groundball off a cutter from Aceves. The grounder Aceves induced skipped past him and through the infield, however, setting up Mathis’ game-winning shot to the wall in left-center.

As a former catcher, Girardi may be more likely than other managers to make such a decision based on a pitcher’s arsenal. In fact, the Yankees skipper has been quick to make pitching changes to set up certain matchups throughout the playoffs, but was he guilty of over-managing when he yanked Robertson?

Sometimes you don’t fix what isn’t broken. That’s a pet peeve of this writer, who doesn’t like to see a manager pull a reliever who is cruising along, especially if he’s dominating hitters. Sometimes a lefty-righty matchup doesn’t look like it matters. Sometimes the setup guy is so dominant, it seems unnecessary to change pitchers simply because the ninth inning is the closer’s domain.

Still, managers tend to make the predictable moves, regardless of the success of a pitcher, because they don’t like to be second-guessed. That’s especially true when every game counts in October. In this case, Girardi’s move was a bit unorthodox, outside the box, but it seemed to be a case of over-managing.

That’s not to say Robertson was lights out, but the ease with which he retired both Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales suggested he was just as likely to succeed against the bottom of the Angels lineup as Aceves. Facing Aceves, however, Kendrick and Mathis completed the best postseason performances of their careers.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

What’s happened to the Los Angeles Angels? They have been one of the better defensive teams in the majors this season, and a Mike Scioscia club is usually a heady bunch not prone to mental mistakes.

Yet, on two miserable nights in the Bronx, the Angels fumbled the ball. They committed three errors in the ALCS opener on Friday, a 4-1 loss, and that didn’t include the easy flyball off the bat of Hideki Matsui that inexplicably fell between infielders Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar in the first inning. With Johnny Damon racing home from second base on the play, someone should have been charged with an error on what should have been the third out of the opening frame.

A throwing error by left fielder Juan Rivera already had allowed Damon to advance to second, and the Angels were guilty of two errors when the Yankees tacked on an insurance run in the sixth inning. The biggest surprise might have been the miscue by center fielder Torii Hunter, who raced toward the infield and mishandled a grounder as he attempted to make a play on Melky Cabrera at the plate. Hunter had been charged with just one error all season.

The Angels have recorded three errors in a game only 50 times in the nearly 1,700 games managed by Scioscia. That’s a mere three percent of all games, regular season and postseason, and they saved No. 50 for the worst time. Not only is it October, but the Angels did against the Yankees, the team that averaged a major league-high 5.65 runs per game during the 2009 season. It’s the last team you give extra outs, as the Yanks will make you pay.

Although Game 2 went better for the Angels, they committed two more errors, marking only the seventh time in the last five seasons they had multiple errors in consecutive games. Los Angeles should have had a “W” after scratching for an 11th-inning run that gave them a 3-2 lead. That lead disappeared in the bottom half of the inning on an 0-2 mistake pitch from closer Brian Fuentes, which Alex Rodriguez deposited into the seats in right field.

Two innings later, another mistake cost the Angels the game. With Yankees on first and second with one out in the 13th, Cabrera stroked a grounder to the left of second baseman Maicer Izturis. The second sacker had made just four errors all year, but throwing across his body, Izturis’ errant toss to second base provided only the sixth walkoff error in postseason history. Shades of Bill Buckner.

The real error here was a mental one. The Angels simply needed an out on the play, as there was no chance of turning two. Throwing out Cabrera at first base would have worked just fine, leaving two runners in scoring position with two out. It would have been up to Ervin Santana to retire Jorge Posada to end the threat.

Today the Angels return home, where temps will run 30-40 degrees higher and the home team is 51-32, including the postseason. That’s not to say the weather can be blamed for the Angels’ poor defensive play, though it’s a shame teams play a six-month season and then toil for championships in entirely different conditions.

Bouncing back won’t be easy for the Angels. In the postseason, the Yankees are 14-3 all-time when winning the first two games of a best-of-seven series. These Yankees score in bunches, and if they have a late lead, it’s nearly impossible to beat Mariano Rivera.

The Angels must win Monday’s Game 3 to keep New York out of the driver’s seat. And maybe the next two home games as well. The Yankees are 35-8 at Yankee Stadium since the All-Star break, including playoff games, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 there.

With New York poised to have home-field advantage the rest of the way -- and Game 4 of the World Series scheduled for Nov. 1 -- we may be calling the Yankees the Boys of Winter when the postseason ends.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The ninth inning was a potential hazard for a few playoff teams with struggling closers, and the biggest question mark was the Phillies’ Brad Lidge. He posted a 1.95 ERA and converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008, but didn’t come close to that performance this season. The right-hander was 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA, 31 saves and 11 blown chances. Opponents batted .301 against him in 2009, more than 100 points higher than they did a year ago.

The Phillies closed out the first round Monday night, with Lidge recording the final out of a 5-4 come-from-behind victory that eliminated the Rockies in four games. Philadelphia left-hander Scott Eyre started the ninth inning, but gave up singles to left-handed hitters Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton before Lidge came on to strike out Troy Tulowitzki to nail down his second save of the series.

Lidge retired Tulowitzki on a flyball to finish Game 3 the previous night, but had walked Gonzalez and Helton to put a 6-5 lead at risk in his one inning of work. The walks suggest his control may remain an issue down the road, but he came through while more dependable closers struggled in the LDS.

Four of the 13 first-round games were decided in the ninth inning, and a fifth went 11 innings, so it’s little surprise that the closers on the four teams to advance posted markedly better numbers than the four on losing teams.

First-Round Closers

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IP. . . . . . .ERA. . . . . .SV. . . . . . BS
Mariano Rivera, NYY. . . . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0
Brian Fuentes, LAA. . . . . . . . . .1.2. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0
Brad Lidge, Phi . . . . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . .0.00. . . . . .2. . . . . . . .0
Jonathan Broxton, LAD. . . . . . .3.2. . . . . . .2.45. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .0

Jonathan Papelbon, Bos. . . . . .2.0. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1
Huston Street, Col. . . . . . . . . .2.2. . . . . . 13.50. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .1
Joe Nathan, Min. . . . . . . . . . .2.0. . . . . . . 9.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1
Ryan Franklin, StL. . . . . . . . . .1.1. . . . . . . 0.00. . . . . .0. . . . . . . .1

The four closers on LCS teams combined to allow just one run over 10.1 innings, and opponents were limited to a .205 average (8-for-39). The four closers on losing clubs allowed 10 more hits and a .462 mark (18-for-39). They combined to give up nine earned runs in eight innings, blew four saves and took four losses.

Colorado’s Huston Street, who blew just two saves all year, absorbed two of those losses in the final two games of the Rockies-Phillies LDS. The most devastating was Monday’s series finale, when the Rockies tallied three runs in the eighth inning to take a 4-2 lead. Street came on and couldn’t retire Philadelphia’s best hitters. Ryan Howard doubled home two runs to tie the game, and Jayson Werth put the Phils in front with a base hit that scored Howard.

The Game 3 struggles of one of the game’s best closers on Sunday were a reminder how unpredictable the game can be. Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon hadn’t allowed a run in 26 postseason innings before the Angels scored three times in the ninth off the right-hander to overcome a 6-4 deficit and complete a sweep of the Red Sox. Papelbon was one strike away from extending the series against three different batters, but after an intentional walk to Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero singled home two runs for a 7-6 series-clinching victory.

Also at less than his best last week was Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, who struggled to command his fastball. He often couldn’t get his breaking stuff over either, and he blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning of Game 2. It was a chance to take a split home to the noisy and Twin-friendly Metrodome, but Alex Rodriguez torched him for a long home run. The Yankees won 4-3 in the 11th on a homer from Mark Teixeira off Jose Mijares.

The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin was terrific all season until a September crash, and the right-hander couldn’t recapture his touch in the postseason. Although he didn’t allow an earned run, Franklin gave up three hits and walked two en route to recording just four outs in the Cards-Dodgers LDS. He was victimized by Matt Holliday’s inability to catch James Loney’s sinking liner, but at the time there were two outs and the Cardinals were just one out away from capturing Game 2. Franklin then allowed two walks and two hits, and Mark Loretta’s bloop single gave the Dodgers two wins at home.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The direction of two LDS turned on a dime in the ninth inning of Game 2.

On Thursday night, the St. Louis Cardinals were one out from going home with a split of the first two games in Los Angeles. The Cardinals led the Dodgers, 2-1 with two outs in the ninth, when Matt Holliday lost James Loney’s sinking liner in the lights. Loney reached second base, and the Dodgers had two men on after Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin walked Casey Blake. Ronnie Belliard singled up the middle to tie the game, and pinch-hitter Mark Loretta fisted the game-winning hit into short center to secure a 3-2 victory and a two-game edge in the best-of-five NLDS.

The following night, the Minnesota Twins were within three outs of a 3-1 victory that would have sent them home to that visitor’s nightmare, the Metrodome, with a split at Yankee Stadium. Twins closer Joe Nathan, dependable all season long, struggled with command and gave up a game-tying home run to Alex Rodriguez in the ninth. Two innings later, Yankees first Mark Teixeira drilled a leadoff home run off Jose Mijares to put New York up two games to none.

The difference between going home with a split -- with two of the last three games at home -- and being on the brink of elimination can be a fine one. And with the five-game LDS, a team’s fate can be all but sealed in the second game.

There’s something wrong with teams playing a six-month marathon, and then having a successful season on the brink in just two playoff games. Contenders lose two in a row numerous times over the course of the season, and two off days shouldn’t doom a team in October. It’s the kiss of death to open the postseason with two losses under the current LDS format.

Major League Baseball came to its senses when it made the best-of-five LCS a best-of-seven affair in 1985, yet it adopted the best-of-five LDS when the wild-card berth was added.

Television controls the postseason schedule, and programming considerations give us all kinds of extra days off that aren’t necessary. Those off days should be used to give teams and fans a best-of-seven LDS. The best-of-five format undercuts what a team has earned over the grind of a six-month season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 9:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

What was to be the Metrodome finale on Sunday, Oct. 4, was a long-anticipated trip from Chicago to Minneapolis for this writer. It was the game played two days later that I never could have foreseen during the summer months, a game that for drama and intensity, tops every one of the hundreds of baseball games I’ve witnessed live.

Not that Game No. 163 was a disappointment. For much of the summer, it loomed as nothing more than a farewell ceremony featuring the Twins from the 1987 and 1991 World Series champions.

It wasn’t until the season was down to its final seven days that the Sunday finale had a realistic chance to be relevant. By then, the Twins had endured a 4-12 slump at the start of August, a stretch in which the rotation generously posted a 7.33 ERA. Minnesota fell seven games back of the Tigers on Sept. 6, and overtaking the first-place Tigers seemed even less likely when Justin Morneau was lost for the season six days later.

Michael Cuddyer and several less-heralded Twins made up for the lost run production. Rookie starter Brian Duensing spun three scoreless outings in September, the pitching was markedly better, and the Twins closed with a 17-4 surge despite missing their slugging first baseman.

The final week began with a four-game set with the Tigers in Detroit. The Twins won the series opener and closed the gap to a single game, but a series split left them two games back with just three to play against the Royals. The final Metrodome contest loomed as little more than pomp and circumstance once again.

The Twins took care of business in the first two games of the weekend series, and the AL Central race was deadlocked after the White Sox beat the Tigers for a second time on Saturday. The long-anticipated Metrodome finale became the biggest game of the season.

To close out a week of virtual Game 7s, the Twins won convincingly on Sunday. Jason Kubel stroked a pair of three-run homers and Delmon Young added two solo shots in a 13-4 win that forced Tuesday’s tiebreaker.

Only for a brief moment was Sunday’s contest in question. The Twins jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first three frames, but the Royals’ three-run sixth inning closed the gap to 8-4. The rally ended with the bases loaded and the potential tying run at the plate after Jon Rauch took over as Minnesota’s fourth pitcher of the inning. He caught Kansas City’s best hitter, Billy Butler, looking at a called third strike to end the threat. The Twins scored in each of the final four innings to put another must-win away.

The Detroit-Minnesota tiebreaker game, moved to Tuesday with the Packers and Vikings and a guy name Favre occupying the Metrodome on Monday night, was one to remember. It was one of those classics, stuffed with dramatic twists and turns, and game-changing situations that were a matter of inches from going the other way.

It might not have looked that way early on, as the Tigers jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the third inning, thanks to an RBI single by Magglio Ordonez and a two-run homer off Scott Baker by Miguel Cabrera. The Twins closed the gap with a run in their half of the third, and pulled to within a run when Jason Kubel launched his third homer in two games with two outs in the bottom of the sixth.

The Tigers threatened in the top of the seventh, when the Twins used four pitchers to keep the game a one-run affair. A bloop base hit by Detroit’s Curtis Granderson put runners on first and third with two outs, but right-hander Matt Guerrier relieved Jose Mijares and induced an inning-ending grounder from Placido Polanco.

In Minnesota’s half of the seventh, Nick Punto led off with a single, and the Twins jumped in front for the first time in the game when Orlando Cabrera connected on reliever Zach Miner’s first pitch and drove it over the wall in left for a home run.

The Metrodome was as noisy as it had been all day when the Twins took that 4-3 lead, though it took only minutes for Magglio Ordonez to silence the crowd and suck the life out of the building. After the Twins were retired, Ordonez opened the eighth with a home run off Guerrier to make it 4-4.

The Twins had been six outs from a postseason berth. The game’s dramatic shift heightened the intensity, magnified the intrigue. The game seemed to hinge on every pitch, and a host of close calls, misplays and clutch plays made it an unforgettable experience.

The Tigers threatened to take the lead first. In the top of the ninth, Detroit shortstop Ramon Santiago dragged a bunt down the first-base line for a hit, and the Tigers had men on the corners when Granderson followed with a single to right off Twins closer Joe Nathan.

Now the Twins were on the verge of being three outs from elimination, but Nathan struck out Polanco for the first out of Detroit’s ninth. The next batter, Ordonez, lined a shot at shortstop Cabrera, who turned a double play with a bullet to first baseman Michael Cuddyer to retire Granderson. In a manic sprint, the excitable Cabrera high-stepped his way to the Minnesota dugout.

After the Twins threatened but failed to score in their half of the ninth, the Tigers pushed across a run in the 10th. The trouble started when Twins reliever Jesse Crain struck pinch-hitter Aubrey Huff with an 0-2 pitch with one out. Crain bounced back to fan Ryan Raburn for the second out, but a double to left field by Inge scored pinch-runner Don Kelly on a close play at the plate.

The Twins were right back in it when Tigers left fielder Rayburn made a questionable decision to leave his feet in pursuit of Michael Cuddyer’s sinking liner leading off the bottom of the 10th. Rayburn’s slide came up short, and taking the ball on a bounce would have kept Cuddyer from motoring around to third while Granderson chased down the leadoff triple.

After Delmon Young was retired, Tigers closer Fernando Rodney walked Brendan Harris to put runners on the corners. Third baseman Matt Tolbert, a key player in Minnesota’s late-season surge, bounced a ball up the middle on an 0-2 count. It was within inches of being a possible season-ending double play, but the ball scooted past second baseman Polanco and scored Cuddyer from third.

The game was tied again, and Alexi Casilla, who pinch-ran for Harris, had sprinted into third with the possible game-winning run. Casilla would figure in two key moments of the game, and the first might have made him the goat if the Twins had lost.

When Nick Punto hit a shallow fly to left field, Casilla should have been posted on third base. If the ball drops in, he scores anyway. If the ball is caught, the speedy Casilla is ready to tag up. When Rayburn made the catch, Casilla was moving back into third base with his momentum heading in the wrong direction. Rayburn, with a strong throw home, retired the sliding Casilla on another close play.

In the top of the 12th with the score still tied at five, the Tigers loaded the bases with one out against Bobby Keppel, a 26-year-old right-hander with little history of success in the majors or high minors. The Twins had burned through their bullpen in the seventh inning, when they trailed 3-2 and were desperate to keep the Tigers from building on their lead. Now they were in a 12th-inning jam with their eighth pitcher of the night on the mound.

After intentionally walking Rayburn to fill the bases, Keppel delivered an inside pitch that forced Brandon Inge off the plate. The Tigers third baseman immediately turned to plate umpire Randy Marsh and insisted the pitch had brushed his jersey. In another possible game-changing situation that came down to an inch or two, Marsh said Inge had not been hit by the pitch and the score remained tied.

Then Inge hit a chopper over the mound that was a long shot to be an inning-ending double play. Second baseman Nick Punto raced to intercept the ball behind the mound, and while on the run, rifled an accurate, on-line throw that barely beat Miguel Cabrera to the plate for the second out. The threat was snuffed out when Keppel struck out Tigers catcher Gerald Laird on a 3-2 pitch after a lengthy battle.

Carlos Gomez, who had been a defensive replacement for Kubel in the eighth inning, led off the bottom of the 12th with a single off Rodney. Detroit’s closer was pitching in his fourth inning, having entered the game with one out in the Twins’ ninth. The fleet-footed Gomez advanced to second base on Cuddyer’s groundball to Inge at third, putting the potential go-ahead run in scoring position with one out.

Up stepped Casilla, who had lost the starting second-base job after a horrendous start this spring and then spent two lengthy stints in the minors. He was the most unlikely of heroes on a team winning with a number of utility types executing key roles, but Casilla squeezed a hit between the infielders on the right side, sending Gomez around third with the winning run.

The Minnesota dugout emptied and the celebration descended on Gomez at the plate, then headed for Casilla in the middle of the infield. The swarm floated toward third base, where the expressive and fun-loving Gomez could be seen lying on his back briefly at the bag, knees up and hands on his head as if he didn’t believe what had just happened.

The Twins had won their fourth straight elimination game to claim the American League Central crown. They became the first team since the start of divisional play to overcome a three-game deficit with four days left in the regular season.

It was one of those sporting events a fan never forgets, a classic game no matter which team won. To have been there was good enough, regardless of the outcome, but in Minnesota, this remarkable game will be forever tied to one of the great finishes in Twins history.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 6:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As many as four playoff teams may play October baseball with their closers struggling to get people out.

After recording a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves without blowing a single opportunity in 2008, Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge has struggled in 2009 and begins the final series of the regular season at 0-8 with a 7.34 ERA, 31 saves and 11 blown chances.

Closer Brian Fuentes has run hot and cold in his first year as an Angel, and has a 5.16 ERA since the All-Star break. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin had been terrific all season, but seemed to run out of gas in September. Opposing hitters batted .382 against him.

If the Detroit Tigers prevail in the ongoing American League Central race, they will do it with the wildly inconsistent Fernando Rodney closing games. He’s blown only one save in 37 opportunities in 2009, but has made many of them more exciting and has a 4.88 ERA since the break. The right-hander was 7-for-7 in saves in September, but gave up at least two runs in five of his last 12 appearances. Rodney had a 9.24 September ERA.

Here are September numbers of the key players in those four bullpens.

September Bullpen Performance

Reliever. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IP . . . . .ERA. . . . . .OBA

Fernando Rodney, Det (R). . . . . . . 12.2. . . . .9.24. . . . . .314
Zach Miner, Det (R) . . . . . . . . . . .17.1. . . . .2.08. . . . . .254
Brandon Lyon, Det (R). . . . . . . . . .14.0. . . . .2.57. . . . . .163
Ryan Perry, Det (R). . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0. . . . .4.50. . . . . .273
Jeremy Bonderman, Det (R). . . . . . 6.0. . . . .6.00. . . . . .304

Brian Fuentes, LAA (L). . . . . . . . . 10.0. . . . .4.50. . . . . .310
Matt Palmer, LAA (R) . . . . . . . . . .13.2. . . . .1.98. . . . . .182
Darren Oliver, LAA (L) . . . . . . . . .14.0. . . . .2.57. . . . . .250
Kevin Jepsen, LAA (R). . . . . . . . . 14.0. . . . .3.86. . . . . .184
Jason Bulger, LAA (R). . . . . . . . . . 8.0. . . . .2.25. . . . . .172

Brad Lidge, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . . .9.0. . . . .9.00. . . . . .372
Ryan Madson, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . 12.1. . . . .2.92. . . . . .273
Chad Durbin, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . .13.2. . . . .1.98. . . . . .174
Tyler Walker, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . 9.2. . . . .6.52. . . . . .286
Brett Myers, Phi (R). . . . . . . . . . .4.2. . . . .5.79. . . . . .222

Ryan Franklin, StL (R). . . . . . . . . .8.1. . . . .7.56. . . . . .382
Blake Hawksworth, StL (R). . . . . . 8.2. . . . .0.00. . . . . .080
Kyle McClellan, StL (R). . . . . . . . 10.1. . . . .0.87. . . . . .182
Jason Motte, StL (R). . . . . . . . . . 8.1. . . . .0.00. . . . . .143
Dennys Reyes, StL (L). . . . . . . . . .9.1. . . . .0.96. . . . . .115

The Phillies have turned save opportunities over to Ryan Madson lately. The right-hander worked a four-out save for a 6-5 victory in Milwaukee on Sunday. Two days later he pitched the final two innings to finish off a 7-4 win over Houston. Brett Myers would be manager Charlie Manuel’s first choice to replace Lidge, but Myers has been out with a strained back muscle and returned to action Thursday after missing nearly three weeks. Manuel said the right-hander looked “rusty” in his return, as did Myers. Ninth-inning duties may fall to Madson.

Two weeks ago, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said he might use right-hander Kevin Jepsen in the ninth inning, along with lefty Fuentes. It hasn’t happened. Jepsen has battled a tired arm recently, while Fuentes has converted six straight save opportunities without giving up a run since Sept. 17.

Over 31.2 innings in June, July and August combined, Franklin allowed just three runs and successfully closed out 23 of 24 save chances for St. Louis. August was the third month the right-hander didn’t allow a run in 2009, but he blew three of six save opportunities in September and has been extremely hittable. Otherwise, the St. Louis bullpen has been very good of late, but no one is closer-tested.

Then there’s Rodney, who is 36-for-37 in saves, but has dodged bullets all season. Since saves became an official statistic in 1969, no pitcher with at least 25 saves and no more than a single blown chance has posted an ERA of 3.00 or higher. Rodney has a 4.35 mark going into the weekend, after allowing six runs in his last four appearances. His job is probably secure, though you have to wonder if his luck will run out against the best teams in October.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Chris Carpenter’s Thursday afternoon outing in Cincinnati was little more than a tuneup for his first postseason start, but it turned out to be a day to remember. The St. Louis right-hander hit a grand slam in a five-run second inning, sparking the Cardinals to a 13-0 romp over the Reds.

The Cardinals ace also doubled home a pair of runs in a four-run fifth, setting a franchise record for pitchers by driving in six runs. When he wasn’t busy at the plate, he was working five scoreless innings, allowing three hits and a walk, and striking out six Reds.

It turns out Carpenter also played prophet, according to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, after telling teammates the last few days that he was going to hit a home run in his final regular-season start. That’s something Carpenter had never done in the major leagues, but there he was, rounding first base and pumping his fist after jumping on a first-pitch fastball from Kip Wells with the bases loaded. When Carpenter returned to the dugout, Hummel said the pitcher inquired whether the fist pump was permissible under baseball code. He had the entire bench laughing.

“He had a Bob Gibson type of day,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He beat us pitching and hitting.”

Carpenter became the first Cardinals pitcher since 1920, when RBIs became an official statistic, to have six RBIs in one game. Gibson drove in five runs during a 13-1 win over the New York Mets on July 26, 1973.

If that wasn’t good enough, the 33-year-old veteran improved to 11-0 with a 1.58 ERA against the National League Central in 2009. No pitcher this season has won more games within a division without posting a loss. Only two other hurlers have more won more than five times without a loss. They are Houston’s Roy Oswalt and the Phillies’ J.A. Happ. Oswalt was 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA against the NL West. Happ was 6-0 (2.40 ERA) facing the NL East.

Thursday’s victory was Carpenter’s fourth of the season over the Reds. With a grand slam and six RBIs, which doubled his career total, he improved to 37-12 lifetime against NL Central foes.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Colorado moved closer to a return to the playoffs Tuesday night, defeating Milwaukee in 11 innings to move three games up on Atlanta in the NL wild-card chase. When Chris Iannetta hit a two-run homer off David Weathers, Rockies manager Jim Tracy improved to 71-40 (.640) since replacing Clint Hurdle in late May.

The Rockies haven’t even clinched a playoff spot, nor have they found out if they can recreate the October magic that sparked a run to the World Series in 2007. Still, this writer was wondering if a red-hot run by an in-season managerial replacement means great things the following season.

Since the expansion era began in 1961, Tracy is only the 13th in-season appointment to manage at least 50 games and post a .600 winning percentage. Believe it or not, not all of the first 12 returned for a full season after overseeing a big improvement in performance. Not with the managerial version of musical chairs in the Bronx. In 1978, Bob Lemon took over for Billy Martin and led the team to a 48-20 finish (.706), but he was gone after starting 34-31 in 1979. Martin took over for Yogi Berra 16 games into the 1985 season and directed the team to a 91-54 record (.628). After fighting Yankees pitcher Ed Whitson that September, Martin didn’t return in 1986.

So, 10 of the first 12 returned to his team for a majority of its games the next season. Six of those 10 managers with a .600 winning percentage posted winning records in the followup season, but only one won 90 games. That was Whitey Herzog, who took over the Royals late in the 1975 season and directed them to a 41-25 finish (.621). The Herzog-led Royals were 90-72 in 1976 before losing the ALCS to the New York Yankees. It was the first of three straight seasons that Kansas City fell to New York in the LCS.

The only other playoff team in the group is the 2005 Astros, who were 89-73 and lost the World Series to the Chicago White Sox. Phil Garner took over for Jimy Williams at the 2004 All-Star break and oversaw a 48-26 surge (.649).

Here are the best regular-season records of those 10 managers who returned for a majority of their teams’ games the following season.

Highest Win Pct in Second Season by In-Season Replacement, Since 1961
(managed at least 50 games with .600 win pct as in-season replacement)

Manager. . . . . . . . . .Team. . . . . . .Rec. . . . .Pct
Whitey Herzog. . . . .1976 KC. . . . . 90-72. . . . .556
Phil Garner. . . . . . . 2005 Hou. . . . 89-73. . . . .549
Harvey Kuenn. . . . . 1983 Mil. . . . . 87-75. . . . .537
Billy Hunter. . . . . . .1978 Tex. . . . .86-75. . . . .534
Cito Gaston. . . . . . .1990 Tor. . . . .86-76. . . . .531

The group includes Harvey Kuenn, who guided the Brewers to a fifth-place finish in the American League East in his first full season as a manager in 1983. It was as an in-season replacement for the Brewers in 1982 that Kuenn directed the Brewers to a 72-43 finish and the franchise’s first and only trip to the Fall Classic.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s déjà vu all over again, with the Tigers and Twins squaring off in a critical series for the American League Central crown and the final AL playoff berth. A week ago it was in Minnesota. Now the two teams meet for the final four times in Detroit, beginning Monday night.

The Twins are the hottest team in the league going into the series. They are 11-2 since slugging first baseman Justin Morneau went down with a stress fracture in his back two weeks ago. They’ve outscored opponents nearly two to one in this span, scoring more than six runs a game and giving up barely more than three.

In the 13 games without Morneau, his replacement at first, Michael Cuddyer, has been the biggest run producer. Cuddyer, who made the move from right field, is batting .370 with a team-leading six home runs and 19 RBIs. He isn’t the only Twin who has picked it up since Morneau was sidelined.

Joe Mauer is hitting .455 (20-for-44) with 10 RBIs. Orlando Cabrera also has driven in 10 runs, and he’s scored 15. Leadoff man Denard Span is batting .356 with a .420 OBP and nine RBIs. Then there’s Matt Tolbert, a utility infielder who was called up in early September. He’s taken most of the playing time at third for the injured Joe Crede, and Tolbert is 14-for-42 (.333) with seven runs scored.

Minnesota pitching has been at its best in September. The staff posted an ERA higher than 5.00 in both July and August, but it has a 3.63 mark this month. The Twins have received quite a payoff from rookie Brian Duensing, who joined the rotation in late August and has gone 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven starts.

In three of his September outings, the 26-year-old left-hander has worked six or more innings and didn’t allow a run. He is only the eighth rookie in the last 55 years to pitch three scoreless quality starts in September-October, and no one has worked four. He may get two more shots at it, as he is scheduled to face Justin Verlander on Tuesday and may work the final game of the season on Sunday.

At the same time the Twins have closed in on the AL Central leaders with an 11-2 surge, the first-place Tigers have gone 8-6. They bounced back nicely after dropping two of three at the Metrodome a week ago, sweeping a three-game set in Cleveland, but the Tigers allowed the Twins to move within two games of first place by losing two of three in Chicago over the weekend.

Detroit has been in first place since early May, a stretch of 155 days going into the Twins-Tigers series. Only three other teams in Tigers history have been in first place longer, and all three reached the World Series. The 1984 Tigers started 35-5 and ruled the AL East for 181 days before soundly defeating the San Diego Padres in the Fall Classic. A century ago, the 1909 club (165 days) lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates in a seven-game World Series, and the 1968 Tigers (158 days) won in seven games over the Cardinals.

The Tigers call on their own rookie tonight, as Rick Porcello takes the mound against Twins right-hander Nick Blackburn. The 20-year-old Porcello, who was the youngest player in the majors nearly all season, is 14-9 with a 4.14 ERA and leads the rookie class in wins. He is 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his last seven outings. His only loss in this month-long stretch was at Minnesota last Tuesday.

One Tiger to keep an eye on in this series is closer Fernando Rodney. He has been wildly inconsistent all season, but has repeatedly dodged bullets. Despite a 4.35 ERA, the veteran right-hander has blown only one of 36 save chances in 2009. Is the bubble about to burst?

Rodney has given up multiple runs in five of his 12 September appearances. Although he’s 6-for-6 in saves, he has a 10.13 ERA and a .326 OBA for the month. If he can keep it together, he could become the answer to a trivia question.

Since saves became an official statistic in 1969, no pitcher with at least 25 saves and no more than a single blown chance has posted an ERA of 3.00 or higher. Rodney has gone more than one run better with a 4.35 mark. Even if he were to blow another opportunity, he still would likely post the highest save-era ERA among relievers with 25 saves and no more than two blown chances -- and probably still by more than a full run.

On the other hand, Rodney could crash and burn, and take the Tigers with him. Or he might be seen as an omen that the Tigers are meant to win this season. At the moment, all that matters is that the Tigers win now. They have the hottest team in the league visiting, and anything less than a split would give the Twins at least a share of the AL Central lead.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Javier Vazquez, Atlanta’s starter in Washington tonight, is 14-9 with 20 quality starts and a 2.91 ERA that would be a career low. He might be a favorite for NL Cy Young honors if not for a little more run support in June.

June was Vazquez’s best month of the season, though he’s making a case for September with a strong finish. He posted a 1.98 ERA and opponents batted just .197/.239/.315 against him in June, but he was only 1-3. The 33-year-old right-hander pitched two quality starts in which the Braves were shut out, including a 1-0 loss to Boston on June 27. In another start two weeks earlier, he struck out 12 Pirates and left a 1-1 tie after eight innings. He easily could have had a couple of extra wins in June.

Vazquez has been prone to extreme highs and lows over the course of a season, but he is having far and away the most consistent one of his career. He lost more than two games in a month only in June and never posted a monthly ERA higher than 3.76.

Another indicator of his consistency has been his strikeouts. He has struck out at least five batters in each of his 30 starts in 2009. Since 1954, only three pitchers have recorded five or more strikeouts in more consecutive starts from the start of a season. They are Randy Johnson, who fanned at least five in all of his 35 starts for the 1999 Diamondbacks; longtime Cardinals ace Bob Gibson in all 34 of his 1970 starts; and Curt Schilling with 33 straight for Arizona in 2002.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Friday night, Milwaukee rookie Casey McGehee provided another highlight to a fine rookie season. The Brewers were tied with Houston, 2-2 in the eighth inning, with Prince Fielder on second base and one out. Astros manager Cecil Cooper brought in LaTroy Hawkins, his top setup man, to face McGehee, who laced a single to right field to score the winning run.

One of the biggest surprises of the rookie class, McGehee has been driving in runs consistently since he became an everyday player in mid-June. Although he has mostly played third base in place of the slumping and eventually traded Bill Hall, the rookie also has been able to fill in at second base, a position left vacant in mid-May by Rickie Weeks’ season-ending wrist injury.

After six years in the Chicago Cubs’ system, the 26-year-old McGehee was picked up on a waiver claim by Milwaukee last October. He was coming off a solid but unspectacular season at Triple-A Iowa in 2008, but McGehee has been better than that as a major league starter. And his production has continued into September.

McGehee not only tops all rookies with 61 RBIs this season, he is the major league leader with 21 in September. He is hitting .349/.419/.587 with four home runs in 19 games this month, and he’s a .304 hitter for the season.

With 17 doubles and 15 home runs in 105 games, McGehee is slugging .506 and has an .874 on-base-plus slugging (OPS). Among rookies with at least 250 plate appearances in 2009, only Pittsburgh’s Garrett Jones has higher marks. He’s slugging .589 with a .955 OPS.

A year ago, the rookie looked like little more than a bench player, but he’s made a case for a regular job in 2010. He was bumped from second base when the Brewers acquired Felipe Lopez on July 19, but he’s made most of the starts at third base since then and kept himself in the lineup with his bat.

The next challenge will come from third-base prospect Mat Gamel. McGehee, one of the unexpected success stories of 2009, will have to prove again next spring that he’s more than a minor league lifer.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After San Francisco took two out of three from Colorado this week, there aren’t many make-or-break series remaining, but two rookies take the mound for the start of one on Friday night.

With four straight wins, the Minnesota Twins have moved within four games of the American League Central-leading Detroit Tigers, who are in Minneapolis for a three-game set this weekend.

The Tigers, who are 3-7 over their last 10 games, will give the ball to rookie Rick Porcello. The 20-year-old right-hander, who has been the youngest player in the majors nearly all season, leads the rookie class with 13 wins. He’s endured the ups and downs a young starter almost always faces in his debut season, but when he's been on -- as he was in May and August -- it's been obvious Porcello has a chance to be a No. 1 starter someday. He was 5-0 in May, when he posted a 1.50 ERA and .208 OBA in defeating Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, Colorado and Kansas City.

Porcello scuffled through the middle of the season, but after winning three of his last four starts, he has a chance to make a final push for AL Rookie of the Year honors. He worked six solid innings against Toronto in his last outing, and improved to 13-8 with a 4.21 ERA and .265 OBA. He hit 96 mph on the radar gun facing the Jays, and after the win, he discussed pitching in big games down the stretch.

“I didn’t know how I would feel in this situation -- I didn’t even know that I would be here,” Porcello said. “But I feel great. I just want to keep improving, because I don’t think I’m a finished product.”

If there’s an element of surprise to it for Porcello, consider how Twins rookie Brian Duensing must feel. Minnesota started the season with one of the youngest and most promising rotations in the game, but it’s been a rough year for Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey was lost to a wrist injury in early July.

It wasn’t exactly a great year in the minors for Duensing, who for a second straight season posted a losing record with Triple-A Rochester and had a 4.66 ERA this year when he was promoted on July 3. He had a few rough outings out of the bullpen early on, but when Liriano was scratched with a sore forearm on July 29, Duensing gave the Twins five solid innings in a victory over the White Sox.

Duensing returned to the bullpen, but rejoined the rotation when another rookie, Anthony Swarzak, lost his starting job in late August. In five starts, with the Twins trying to hold on in the AL Central race, the 26-year-old left-hander has gone 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and .250 OBA. He’s blanked two of his last three opponents, and after working seven scoreless innings in a victory over Oakland on Sunday, Duensing pitches the biggest game of his brief major league career.

The Tigers are 1-5 at the Metrodome this year, but the Twins will be without Justin Morneau, who is lost for the season with a stress fracture in his back. If the Tigers don’t put the Twins away this weekend, their four-game set in Detroit at the end of September may be just as meaningful.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s do-or-die-time for the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants were tied with division rival Colorado for the NL wild-card berth at the start of September, but they had gone 5-7 this month heading into this week’s three-game set with the Rockies, which began Monday night.

While the Giants have slumped the last two weeks, the red-hot Rockies had posted a major league-best 10-3 record this month before arriving in San Francisco for the final three games between the two NL West contenders. The series began with the Giants 4.5 games behind the Rockies in the wild-card race.

Scoring runs has been a struggle for the Giants, who were averaging just 3.08 runs a game in September at the start of the series. As a team, they were hitting only .219. Among all big league clubs, only Tampa Bay ranked below the Giants in both categories during this stretch. And San Francisco’s .169 average with runners in scoring position was dead last in the majors.

The Rockies, on the other hand, ranked among the most productive offensive teams in September. The Giants, though, had the great equalizer for the series opener. After back spasms pushed back his next start nearly a week, ace Tim Lincecum returned to the mound on Monday and shut down the Rockies through seven innings in a 9-1 win. The right-hander fanned 11, and relievers Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry held Colorado hitless over the final two frames.

The biggest news of the night was the nine runs the Giants scored in the must-win matchup. It marked only the third time in 13 September contests that they have scored more than three runs. The outburst came a day after the Giants had scored seven times in Sunday’s victory over the NL West-leading Dodgers.

Leadoff Eugenio Velez came though with four RBIs on Monday, and both Juan Uribe and Travis Ishikawa have gone 5-for-8 over the last two games. Uribe has continued his hot hitting while Ishikawa has shown signs of breaking out of an extended slump. The pair scored seven of San Francisco’s 16 runs the last two days.

The gap is now 3.5 games. The Rockies go with their top starter on Tuesday, Ubaldo Jimenez, with the Giants calling on lefty Barry Zito. Wednesday’s matchup may favor the Giants, as Matt Cain takes the hill against Rockies southpaw Jorge De La Rosa.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On the same night Derek Jeter secured the Yankees’ franchise record for hits, a couple of noteworthy streaks came to end. Both the Yankees and Marlins had 10-game home winning streaks against their Friday night opponents, but both home teams lost the opener of their weekend series.

With the Yankees leading 3-1 in the third inning, Jeter singled to right field to surpass Lou Gehrig with his 2,722nd hit, but the Baltimore Orioles throttled New York pitching for nine runs over the fifth, sixth and seventh frames in a 10-4 victory. It was the Orioles’ first win at Yankee Stadium since July 29, 2008.

The Marlins had been equally dominant over the Washington Nationals the last two seasons, with 10 straight home victories since last losing to the Nats on July 1, 2008. On Friday, Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman stroked homers in Washington’s 5-3 victory.

The Marlins threatened to win their 11th straight in the ninth, when Dan Uggla led off with a home run and the next two batters reached, but Mike McDougal struck out Emilio Bonifacio and induced a game-ending double-play grounder from Chris Coghlan.

Both the Yankees and Marlins failed to inch closer to the longest active home winning streak against a single opponent. The Milwaukee Brewers stretched their winning streak over the Pittsburgh Pirates at Miller Park to 21 games at the end of August, and that’s currently the longest against a single opponent.

Longest Active Home Winning Streaks vs. Any Opponent

Streak Holder. . . . . . . . . . .Opp. . . . .Gms
Milwaukee Brewers. . . . . . . Pit. . . . . . 21
Cleveland Indians. . . . . . . . .TB. . . . . . 17
Los Angeles Dodgers. . . . . . .Cin. . . . . .12
San Francisco Giants. . . . . . Tex. . . . . .11
Detroit Tigers. . . . . . . . . . .Tex. . . . . .11

Texas is on the wrong end of two of the longest active streaks, including the longest among two interleague opponents.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two years ago at this time of year, Colorado manager Clint Hurdle led the Rockies to a remarkable 23-8 finish. They were 4.5 games behind in the National League wild-card race with two weeks to play, but they secured the final playoff berth with a stunning 14-1 surge that wrapped with come-from-behind 9-8 victory in 13 innings over San Diego in Game No. 163.

Although the Rockies have held down the NL’s final playoff spot since Aug. 10, it’s hard not to see comparisons between the 2007 and 2009 clubs.

This year’s version looked dead in the water months ago. On May 28, after the Rockies had lost 10 of their last 15 games, they were 18-28. Among all major league teams, only the Washington Nationals had a worse record. At that point, Colorado’s only shot to secure a playoff berth seemed to be 2010.

General manager Dan O’Dowd fired Hurdle the following day, and new skipper Jim Tracy has directed the team to a 62-32 record since his appointment. A week after Tracy’s arrival, Colorado went on a 17-1 run to climb back into contention.

The Rockies’ repeat of their 2007 magical run seemed to be gasping for air at the end of August, however, when they lost their last five games of the month to division rivals Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The Giants pulled into a tie for the wild-card berth after sweeping a weekend series from the Rockies, whose wild-card aspirations took another hit when closer Huston Street was sidelined with tightness in his right biceps at the start of September. With lefty Franklin Morales stepping in for Street and saving five games in five chances, the Rockies have gone 8-1 this month and have won six in a row going into their Thursday afternoon matchup with Cincinnati.

Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who hit .346/.398/.607 with 23 RBIs in August, sat out Wednesday’s win over the Reds with a back strain. It’s uncertain when he or Street will return, but the Rockies keep winning without them.

The Rocks also have won without Jeff Francis this season, and without Aaron Cook since he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain on Aug. 22. Ubaldo Jimenez has emerged as the staff ace with a solid season, and the likes of Jason Hammel, Jorge de la Rosa and trade acquisition Jose Contreras have been pitching well of late. The rotation has a 2.98 ERA and .227 OBA in nine September contests -- all of them at Coors Field.

The bullpen has been pretty solid, too, with Morales converting all five of his September save opportunities and the pen as a whole limiting hitters to a .207 average this month.

Offensively, the Rockies are batting .294/.374/.510 in September. Those numbers aren’t the best in the majors this month, but they have been more than adequate with the pitching staff doing so well.

The remaining schedule mostly features games within the NL West, though in two weeks there’s a weekend series with possible first-round playoff opponent St. Louis in Denver. The season ends at Dodger Stadium, where the fate of the Rockies’ surprising 2009 revival may be sealed.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Derek Jeter needs only one more hit now. With three in New York’s come-from-behind victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday, the veteran shortstop tied Lou Gehrig for the most all-time hits in Yankee pinstripes.

As much buildup as there has been during Jeter’s pursuit of the franchise mark, tying Gehrig seemed to catch him off guard. The game situation didn’t help.

“I really didn’t know what to do because we were losing at the time and I didn’t want to disrespect Tampa,” Jeter said. “I never dreamt about all of this.” The show of respect seemed to be mutual, as numerous Rays players were out on the top step of their dugout when the crowd honored Jeter with a lengthy standing ovation.

Perhaps Jeter wasn’t anticipating tying Gehrig at 2,271 hits as soon as Wednesday night. He had gone 0-for-12 in his previous three games and seemed stuck at three hits shy of Gehrig’s total. Instead, Jeter singled twice and doubled against the Rays. When he hit a sharp grounder inside the first-base line in the seventh inning, past a diving Chris Richard, he tied the record that Gehrig had held alone for more than 70 years.

Here’s a list of the eight players who have collected 2,000 hits in a Yankees uniform.

Career Hits as a Yankee, All-Time

Derek Jeter. . . . . . . . 2,271
Lou Gehrig . . . . . . . . 2,271
Babe Ruth. . . . . . . . . 2,518
Mickey Mantle. . . . . . 2,415

Bernie Williams. . . . . .2,336
Joe DiMaggio. . . . . . .2,214
Don Mattingly. . . . . . 2,153
Yogi Berra. . . . . . . . .2,148

The list includes five Hall of Fame players: Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and Yogi Berra. The other three -- Jeter, Bernie Williams and Don Mattingly -- are the only players on the list who have been active in the last 40 years.

It’s always interesting to find Yogi on a list such as this. Here’s a guy who is built more like an accountant or a used car salesman than an athlete, but he could play the game.

It’s only a matter of days before Jeter has the top spot to himself. The Yankees are off on Thursday before the Orioles arrive for a three-game set that begins Friday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Six weeks ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the most wins in the major leagues and looked like the team to beat in the National League. They were 25 games over .500 on the final day of July, after Jason Schmidt and three relievers had blanked the Atlanta Braves on three hits.

After defeating the Padres on Saturday, the Dodgers managed to pull back to 25 games over .500. That’s right. They have played .500 baseball since the start of August, going 17-17 despite playing just 12 games against teams that were more than two games over .500 at the time. The Dodgers are 7-5 in those games, and 10-12 in the rest of them.

Manny Ramirez may have returned from his drug suspension at the start of July, but the Dodgers are averaging a half-run less per game since Aug. 1 than they did over the first four months of the season.

It was suggested in this space a while back that Matt Kemp should be the Dodgers’ leadoff man, based on his success leading off an inning. That’s as true as ever. Among the team’s regulars, Rafael Furcal, who has been the No. 1 hitter most of the season and nearly all of the second half, has the team’s lowest batting average (.221) and OBP (.276) since the start of August.

Russell Martin is hitting .233/.295/.311, and James Loney's numbers are .241/.339/.333. Casey Blake has been only marginally better, with a few more extra-base hits and RBIs. Still, he has only 12 RBIs in this 29-game stretch.

Ramirez has been productive, though he hasn’t put up the numbers he did a year ago after joining the team in a trade-deadline deal. Most of the power has come from Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, who have combined for 53 of the club’s 140 RBIs since Aug. 1.

How damaging have the Dodgers’ offensive struggles been? Even with Hiroki Kuroda, Jason Schmidt and Guillermo Mota going on the disabled list last month, both the rotation and bullpen have been better since the start of August.

Dodgers ERA, Before & After August 1

. . . . . . . . . . Thru 7/31. . . . .Since 8/1
Rotation. . . . . .3.77. . . . . . . . 3.21
Bullpen. . . . . . 3.30. . . . . . . . 2.80

With a 3.18 ERA in 2009, the Los Angeles bullpen has the lowest ERA among all big league pens, and by a large margin. That bodes well for the late innings of postseason games, when teams can’t afford to throw away wins.

The Dodgers, though, will have to rekindle their ability to score runs as they did earlier in the season. Otherwise, they will struggle to remain competitive into the late innings in October against the game's best teams.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In a Wednesday column, FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal noted that a few of the game’s elder statesmen -- Frank Thomas, Luis Gonzalez and Jim Edmonds -- failed to find major league jobs last spring. The nation’s economic downturn was blamed, as owners were more inclined to go with young players instead of veterans with their best days in the rear-view mirror.

Rosenthal figures the squeeze on older guys will continue this winter, and for some of them, it will be driven by the position they play. He points out that a host of veteran first base-DH types will be looking for work. The names he mentions were Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi; Aubrey Huff, Nick Johnson, Mike Sweeney and Hank Blalock. Gary Sheffield may be another casualty, but the 40-year-old veteran believes he’ll be playing in someone’s outfield in 2010.

Rosenthal make an interesting point, especially for guys who are designated hitters -- or should be, based on their defensive performance or injury history. That would include Thome, Giambi, Johnson and Sweeney. The 39-year-old Thome, with 564 career home runs, still has a shot at becoming the seventh player to reach the 600 plateau. Although only a few DH jobs with regular playing time may be available, he should be the one guy who is guaranteed to get one, based on his .865 OPS for the White Sox.

Looking at the DH spot on American League clubs, it’s surprising how few jobs are held by established run producers who rank among the game’s best hitters. Boston’s David Ortiz is one, though his bat seems to be on the decline as he endures his worst year since joining the Red Sox in 2003. Thome is another, though now he’s solely a pinch-hitter for the Dodgers after being dealt by the White Sox on Monday.

Seattle’s Ken Griffey Jr. and Cleveland’s Travis Hafner would have fit that description a few years ago, and perhaps the Rays’ Pat Burrell will be better in his second season in the AL next year. He had averaged 31 homer and 99 RBIs a year over his previous four seasons with Philadelphia, and he may bounce back after having to adjust to a new league in 2009.

Arguably the most productive designated hitters this season have been Thome, Toronto’s Adam Lind, Baltimore’s Luke Scott, Jason Kubel of the Twins, and the Yankees’ Hideki Matsui. Of this group, only Thome and Matsui are DH-only players.

Looking to 2010, only five AL clubs appear set at DH. That may seem to counter Rosenthal’s point, but a more in-depth look suggests otherwise. Among the nine teams that have some wiggle room to make a change at the position, six of them are small-market or rebuilding teams -- or both. They include the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, White Sox, Mariners and Rangers.

Among this group, the White Sox have shown a willingness to spend money if a free agent or player on the trade market is a good fit, but the Thome deal may have been made with the idea of making room next season for talented catching prospect Tyler Flowers. He and A.J. Pierzynski could share catching duties, and both could stay in the lineup regularly by getting plate appearances at DH. If Flowers flounders in spring camp, perhaps a veteran will be signed.

There may be a DH opening in Baltimore, as the O’s are looking at Scott to man first base next season, but that may be a temporary scenario with first-base prospect Brandon Snyder on the way up and rookie Michael Aubrey currently getting a look on the roster. The Royals seem likely to stick with Mike Jacobs, despite his 2009 struggles. The Blue Jays may give 31-year-old rookie and power source Randy Ruiz a chance to stick next spring, despite his dismal 23-8 strikeout ratio in 65 at-bats. The Rangers have to like what they have seen from outfield prospect Julio Borbon since he was recalled in early August, and he and the three outfield regulars could share a lot of the DH time in 2010. Seattle faces a decision on pending free agents and DH candidates Griffey and Sweeney.

The three AL teams most likely to spend money on an aging veteran to DH are the Yankees, Tigers and Angels.

In New York, Matsui and Johnny Damon have had solid 2009 seasons, but both will be free agents. The 35-year-old Damon, playing in left field, is having one of the best seasons of his career; the 35-year-old Matsui has rebounded nicely from a knee injury, though he hasn’t played in the outfield in 2009. The free-spending Yankees could re-sign either left-handed hitter -- or both, with Damon returning in left -- or they could go in a different direction and sign Thome or one of the other DH options.

The Tigers traded for Aubrey Huff in mid-August, and have given him most of the DH at-bats against right-handers, but the 32-year-old veteran has struggled mightily and becomes a free agent at year’s end. On the other hand, injury-prone Carlos Guillen, soon to be 35 years old and still signed for two more years, may be heading toward full-time duties as Detroit’s DH. If he’s unable to stay healthy enough to play regularly in the field, the Tigers will have only one way to make room for his bat in the lineup. Interestingly, Magglio Ordonez, whose playing time is inching him closer to having his option vested for 2010, has been far more productive at the plate as a DH than an outfielder.

The Angels also may have a DH opening if they don’t re-sign Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu over the winter. Abreu and the Angels are talking, and he seems a good bet to return to right field next spring. That move alone would keep Gary Matthews Jr. on the bench, despite having two years remaining on a $50 million contract. If the Angels re-up with Guerrero, there’s no opening for a free-agent DH.

There will be few first-base openings in either league, as well, so it’s likely at least a few major league veterans among the group mentioned by Rosenthal will be hard-pressed to fine regular work. Perhaps Carlos Delgado and Hank Blalock will find a first-base gig in Oakland or Cleveland if they’re willing to take less money. Nick Johnson may be a good fit in a place where he won’t be depended on to play 125 games, and Thome should sign somewhere. Otherwise, it might be a frustrating winter for a number of major league veterans in search of job.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Step aside for a moment, Andrew McCutchen. It has taken eight years, three college stops, four June drafts and a July deadline deal, but right-hander Daniel McCutchen finally made his big league debut yesterday.

What a circuitous route to Pittsburgh it has been. McCutchen pitched for three colleges before signing a pro contract. That would include the University of Oklahoma in his hometown of Norman, where he earned an economics degree. He also is one of a select few who have been drafted by major league clubs four times, which he admits sparked occasional anxiety and some second-guessing about staying in school.

Playing baseball in college wasn't even a given when McCutchen graduated high school in 2001. Primarily a shortstop at Norman High, he drew no attention from college programs and walked on at Division II Central Oklahoma, where he moved to the mound. That's when his baseball career began to take flight.

It was as a freshman at Central Oklahoma that the 6-foot-2 McCutchen matured physically, adding 25 pounds and discovering the mid-90s with his fastball. He transferred to Grayson (Oklahoma) Community College the following year, but was limited to two innings of work because of injury. Still, the Yankees took notice of his radar readings and promise, and made him their 27th-round pick of the 2003 draft.

Unhappy with where he went in the draft, McCutchen chose to return home to Norman to pitch for his hometown university. He was one of Oklahoma's top relievers as a sophomore in 2004, and Tampa Bay selected him in the 28th round of that spring's draft.

McCutchen improved steadily over his three seasons pitching in the Big 12, but he returned to Oklahoma each fall, frustrated by his draft position. Being passed over in the early rounds became a motivational tool for an already-driven athlete, who departed the bullpen as a junior and became the Sooners' No. 1 starter.

St. Louis made McCutchen a 12th-round selection in 2005, and he had a tentative deal in place with the Cardinals late the following spring. Oklahoma was still playing in the NCAA's Norman Regional in his final days of eligibility leading up to the 2006 draft, however, and as long as the Sooners were playing, McCutchen couldn't sign.

On the night before the draft, Oklahoma squared off against Wichita State in the regional final, and McCutchen's draft status hung in the balance when he came into the game in relief. The senior worked 5.2 innings for the Sooners, and he was protecting a 7-6 lead with one out to go.

"We were up by one run, runners on second and third, two out," McCutchen explained in an August 2008 interview with this writer. "If I give up a hit, Wichita States wins, I sign the contract with the Cardinals that night, and I get a lot more money than I ended up signing for. If I get this guy out, I go back into the draft pool.

"I threw a 2-2 breaking ball the guy hit pretty hard to our third baseman, and he came up with it and threw the guy out. I was not going to be a Cardinal and went back into the draft."

The Yankees chose McCutchen with their 13th-round pick the following day, and his professional career began soon after Oklahoma lost in a super regional matchup with Rice, the No. 1 team in the country at the time.

Nearly 24 years old when he signed, an age when most prospects are flirting with big league opportunities, McCutchen climbed quickly through an organization known more for dealing prospects than calling on them. His opportunity suddenly seemed infinitely closer last summer, when he was dealt by the Yankees to the Pirates in a late-July trade that shipped Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to New York.

McCutchen’s long-awaited big league debut might have come a year ago with the perpetually rebuilding Pirates, but it took another 13 months. And after all those years of working hard and waiting for a chance, it was a debut to remember -- for a number of reasons, both positive and strange.

After posting an International League-leading 13 wins, a 13-6 record and a 1.90 ERA in eight second-half starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, McCutchen debuted on Monday in the first game of a day-night doubleheader in Cincinnati. It was a makeup of an April rainout, and fewer than 2,000 fans showed up. The chatter of both players and fans could be heard throughout the stadium, an occurrence that the minor league veteran may not have experienced since his Class-A days with the Yankees.

It might have been a disastrous day. McCutchen served up a home run to Cincinnati leadoff man Drew Stubbs on his second big league pitch, but he put the Pirates up 2-1 with an RBI single to shallow right in his first major league at-bat in the second inning.

McCutchen settled down and worked a quality start, allowing five hits, a pair of walks and three runs over six frames. He fanned five and left with the Pirates trailing 3-2. Pittsburgh tied the game after McCutchen’s departure, but the Reds prevailed, 4-3, when Cincinnati right fielder Darnell McDonald dashed home on a two-out wild pitch from Jesse Chavez in the bottom of the ninth.

“I was a little antsy, trying to block that crowd out,” said McCutchen, breaking into a grin during a postgame interview. The rookie also had the rare major league experience of hearing shouts of encouragement from the handful of family members and friends who drove 13 hours from Oklahoma to witness his big day.

It didn’t appear that the other McCutchen in Pittsburgh, who turns 27 on Sept. 26, would even be given a big league opportunity in 2009. He had been invited to pitch for Team USA in the World Cup later this month, and not being on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster, a September callup seemed unlikely. Now he’s a good bet to get a handful of September starts. No doubt it’s been worth the wait.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Matt Kemp has seen most of his 2009 plate appearances from the No. 7 spot in the Dodgers lineup. One might expect him to be batting higher in the order, considering he ranks second on the team to Andre Ethier in runs, home runs, extra-base hits, total bases and RBIs.

It’s unlikely manager Joe Torre will be making any significant changes to his lineup, however, since the Dodgers have the best record in the National League. And certainly Kemp’s production makes him one of the best No. 7 hitters in the game.

On the other hand, perhaps Kemp should be the Dodgers’ leadoff man. Yes, he’s a big run producer, but among his teammates who qualify for the batting title, he is first with a .371 on-base percentage.

There’s an even more convincing argument for putting Kemp at the top of the order. In 2009, no major leaguer is better at getting on base to open an inning. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances leading off an inning, Kemp tops the leader board with a .464 average (40-for-87). He’s also drawn 10 walks as the first batter, and his .515 OBP ranks first among this group, too.

Kemp won’t surface at the top of the order, of course, even though he’s a better fit for the job than Rafael Furcal and his .323 OBP. That mark is .305 since the All-Star break, but Torre isn’t likely to turn his lineup upside down.

It’s noteworthy, though, that the Dodgers as a team are the best in the National League at reaching base to open an inning. With Kemp leading the way in those situations, Los Angeles has the league’s highest team batting average (.293) and OBP (.353).

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Twice in Cincinnati’s 2-1, 10-inning win over San Francisco Thursday, Reds pitchers pitched out of trouble with a runner on third base and less than two outs.

In the seventh, with the score tied at one, Giants rookie Eli Whiteside opened the inning with a double and moved to third on a sacrifice by starter Matt Cain. Reds starter Aaron Harang worked his way of the jam by inducing an infield fly from Eugenio Velez and retiring Juan Uribe on a liner to center fielder Aaron Rowand.

The following inning, with Arthur Rhodes on the mound for the Reds, Pablo Sandoval delivered a one-out double and moved up on Randy Winn’s infield single. Rhodes ended the threat by getting pinch-hitter Edgar Renteria to ground into an inning-ending double play.

After dodging bullets in those two innings, the Reds won the game in the 10th on Drew Stubbs’ leadoff homer off Giants reliever Bob Howry.

For no reason that can be easily explained, the Reds have been better than all big league clubs at stranding runners at third with less two outs. In fact, only the Reds pitching staff has kept the runner from coming home via an RBI less than 50 percent of the time.

Cincinnati pitchers have faced that scenario 239 times in 2009, and have kept the runner from coming home via an RBI on 128 occasions. Cincinnati’s opponents have driven the runner home in just 46.4 percent of those situations. The next-best strand percentages with a man on third and less than two outs belong to the Arizona Diamondbacks (51.8), the St. Louis Cardinals (52.5) and New York Mets (52.9).

Not all that much has gone well for the Reds in 2009. It’s conceivable, though, that the staff’s success at stranding runners at third with less than two outs may have contributed to winning a few extra games.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee just keeps rolling along, making his case as the best trade-deadline acquisition of 2009. On Wednesday, the 6-foot-3 lefty pitched a two-hitter and tied a career high with 11 strikeouts in a complete-game, 8-1 victory over Arizona. He’s now allowed just seven earned runs in seven second-half start, and he’s got seven wins, a 1.09 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP to show for it.

Although Lee is just 11-9 on the season, a solid case can be made that he has been among the most dependable major league starters for the bulk of the 2009 campaign. That seemed like an unlikely scenario after Texas roughed up Lee for 10 hits and seven runs on Opening Day, and five days later, Toronto scored four runs in the first three frames off the former Cleveland ace. In his first two outings of the season, he had given up 11 earned runs in 10 innings, and hitters were batting .370 against him.

Four months later, Lee has a 2.72 ERA and a major league-leading 22 quality starts. They come in a stretch of 24 outings since the Rangers and Blue Jays greeted him rudely in the opening week. One might expect Lee to be among the major league leaders in wins, but the runs have rarely come in bunches for him.

In Lee’s 22 starts for Cleveland before he was dealt, the Indians were blanked or held to a single run while he was on the mound nine times. He turned in quality starts in six of those games, but was 0-5 with a no decision. After losing a pair of quality starts to close out the first half, he was 4-9 despite a respectable 3.47 ERA that ranked 13th among the American League’s ERA qualifiers. Among the 23 AL qualifiers with ERAs lower than 4.00 at the break, only Lee had fewer than six wins.

Lee has taken matters into his own hands since the All-Star break. He won his first three second-half starts for the hapless Indians, then showed why the Phillies made the right move in dealing prospects for him.

In four outings for the Phils, Lee has worked two complete-game victories and won his other two starts as well. The first complete game was in his National League debut on July 31, when the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner flashed no-hit stuff, held the Giants hitless into the sixth inning, and limited them to four hits and two walks in a 5-1 victory.

After going the distance again on Wednesday, Lee is 4-0 with an 0.82 ERA for the Phillies. He’s pitched 33 innings, allowed just 18 hits and six walks, and struck out 34. The unfortunate thing is, by changing leagues at the trade deadline, he’s unlikely to claim Cy Young honors in either one.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Wednesday night at Comerica Park, Detroit ace Justin Verlander was looking to tie Boston right-hander Josh Beckett and Yankees lefty CC Sabathia for the most wins among American League pitchers.

In search of his 14th victory, Verlander took the loss in Wednesday’s 3-1 defeat to Seattle, even as he struck out 10 Mariners over eight innings. Although the right-hander failed to gain a share of the league lead in wins, he did move into a tie for the major league lead in another category.

Wednesday’s loss was Verlander’s sixth start with double-digit strikeouts this season, tying him with Lincecum and Boston’s Jon Lester for the most double-digit performances.

Most Double-Digit Strikeout Performances, 2009

Justin Verlander, Det. . . .6
Tim Lincecum, SF . . . . . .6
Jon Lester, Bos. . . . . . . 6
Johan Santana, NYM . . . 4
Zack Greinke, KC. . . . . .4

Verlander built on his American League lead in strikeouts on Wednesday. He now has 194 for the season, creating some distance between himself and the Royals’ Zack Greinke (184) and Lester (176). Lester gets a chance to close the gap Thursday, when he faces the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Lincecum not only leads the majors with 207 strikeouts, he also has recorded the most strikeouts in a 2009 game. He fanned 15 Pirates in a complete-game, 4-2 victory on July 27. It was his second double-digit strikeout performance against Pittsburgh in 10 days, and he also whiffed 13 and 12 in consecutive outings against Arizona in mid-April.

Only Toronto’s Roy Halladay has struck out 14 batters in a 2009 start, when he went the distance in a 6-4 win over the Angels on June 2. Verlander has a pair of 13-strikeout performances. Lincecum has one, as do Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar and Johan Santana of the Mets.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound on Tuesday night with a string of seven consecutive quality starts, and the only major league pitchers with longer active streaks are Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (10) and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee (8).

During this seven-start stretch, Jimenez is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and .187 opponent batting average. Four of those seven outings have come at home, including Wednesday’s eight shutout innings of three-hit ball in an 8-0 blanking of the Pirates.

After winning his last three starts -- against the Reds, Cubs and Pirates -- the 25-year-old right-hander has pushed his career record to one win above the .500 mark. More importantly, he has shown steady improvement in his first three seasons of regular work in the majors.

Ubaldo Jimenez by Year, 2007-2009

Year. . . . .W-L. . . . . ERA. . . . .OSLG. . . .K/9 IP. . . BB/9 IP
2007. . . . .4-4. . . . . .4.28 . . . . . .404. . . . .7.46. . . . . 4.06
2008 . . . .12-12. . . . .3.99 . . . . . .348. . . . .7.79. . . . . 4.67
2009. . . . 10-9. . . . . 3.47 . . . . . .320 . . . . 7.96. . . . . .3.58

Jimenez’s strikeout rate has climbed steadily over this span. Although his walk rate ticked upward as well in 2008, he has put more distance between his strikeout and walk rates this season.

On Tuesday, Jimenez pitches in Washington, where he’ll attempt to cool off the red-hot Nationals. The Nats are on an 11-3 surge and have averaged nearly seven runs a game in their 11 victories.

Jimenez has tamed his hitter-friendly home, Coors Field, where he has been better in each of his three seasons. The difference is far less significant in 2009, as he’s 4-5 (3.60) away from home compared to 6-4 (3.31) at Coors. Still, his streak of consecutive quality starts faces a stern road test Tuesday night.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Lefty Cliff Lee, who the Phillies acquired from Cleveland before the trade deadline, has given up a total of six runs in five second-half starts. All five have been quality outings, and he’s won all five and went the distance in three of them.

A case could be made that Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez is the majors’ most dominant hurler at the moment. His last loss was a 6-1 defeat to the Rangers on June 16. Since then, Rodriguez is 6-0 with a 1.35 ERA in nine starts. In seven outings since the start of July, Rodriguez has blanked three opponents and limited the other four to a single run each.

Lee and Giants ace Tim Lincecum lead the majors with 20 quality starts this season. After a solid outing against the Dodgers on Wednesday, the 25-year-old right-hander has 15 quality starts in his last 16 outings, dating to May 21 -- a stretch in which he’s 9-2 with a 1.55 ERA.

So, who do you think has the longest active streak of quality starts? Would you believe Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals?

Longest Active Streaks of Quality Starts, 2009

Adam Wainwright, StL . . . . .9
Cliff Lee, Cle-Phi. . . . . . . . .7
Brad Bergesen, Bal . . . . . . 7
Derek Lowe, Atl. . . . . . . . .7
Ubaldo Jimenez, Col . . . . . 7

It hasn’t been easy. Wainwright’s string dates to June 26, when he held the Twins to a pair of earned runs but lost a 3-1 decision at Busch Stadium. That’s how things have gone during the streak. The 27-year-old right-hander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his nine quality starts, but the Cardinals have failed to score more than a single run in four of them. As a result, he is just 5-3 during his streak, though with a 1.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Now 13-7 (2.73) for the season, Wainwright puts his quality-starts streak on the line when St. Louis hosts San Diego on Friday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Angels are 17-7 since the All-Star break, and only the 18-6 Yankees have a better second-half record. The Angels have outscored the Yankees since the break, however, averaging a major league-best 6.71 runs a game. That’s nearly a run better than any other club.

A key to the Angels’ success has been the team’s ability to execute with runners in scoring position. There are a few surprises among the second-half run producers, as second baseman Maicer Izturis leads all major leaguers with 19 post-break RBIs with runners in scoring position. He’s just one of a number of Angels who have come through in those situations.

Angels with RISP since All-Star Break

Batter. . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . H. . . . .2B. . . . .3B. . . . HR. . . . .RBI. . . . . AVG
Maicer Izturis. . . . . 21. . . . . .9. . . . . 0. . . . . .0. . . . . .4. . . . . .19 . . . . .429
Kendry Morales. . . .24. . . . . .9. . . . . 2. . . . . .0. . . . . .3. . . . . .17. . . . . .375
Bobby Abreu. . . . . .23. . . . .13. . . . . 3. . . . . .0. . . . . .0. . . . . .16. . . . . .565
Erick Aybar. . . . . . .26 . . . . . 8. . . . . 2. . . . . .1. . . . . .0. . . . . .14. . . . . .308

Izturis, who is hitting .331 since June 22, has a pair of four-RBI performances in August. What may be most surprising about Izturis’ recent surge are his four home runs in the second half, all with runners in scoring position.

Kendry Morales has 10 home runs and 26 RBIs in 20 games since the All-Star break -- both totals are the most in the American League -- and he drove in six runs with a pair of three-run homers off Twins pitching on Aug. 2. Like Izturis, Morales has been on his game with runners in scoring position.

Bobby Abreu is a .400 hitter since July 24, a span in which he has hit safely in 14 of 16 games. He’s scored 14 runs and driven in 14 over this stretch. With a .565 average with runners in scoring position since the break, Abreu has the highest mark among all big league regulars

Erick Aybar batted .414 in July. He’s cooled off a bit in August, but he’s still hitting .347 in the second half and has driven in 14 runs with runners in scoring position.

The Angels overcame a host of injuries to the rotation early in the season, thanks to solid contributions from others who weren’t expected to play key roles. The same has happened with Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter out, and it’s a credit to the likes of Izturis, Morales, Abreu and Aybar that the Angels have built a lead in the AL West without their star players.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Several young pitchers are in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors in 2009. Most of them, such as Rick Porcello, Jeff Niemann and J.A. Happ, can be found on nearly every top prospects list.

Each league, however, has a surprise candidate who has seemingly come out of nowhere to figure among the best pitchers of the 2009 rookie class.

In the American League, Toronto's Ricky Romero is 10-4 in 17 starts, and only eight AL pitchers have more wins in 2009. No major league rookie has more than the 24-year-old left-hander, who had struggled the previous three seasons in Double-A ball before making the Toronto roster this spring. His walk rate suggested he didn’t have the command to be a double-digit winner, but he, Porcello and Niemann all have 10 wins.

In the National League, the biggest surprise is the Cubs’ Randy Wells. The 26-year-old right-hander had improved steadily over three seasons with Triple-A Iowa prior to 2009, then took a huge step there this spring. After dominating in five Triple-A starts, Wells was recalled to start in Milwaukee on May 8, in place of the injured Carlos Zambrano. The rookie blanked the Brewers for five innings and never gave up his spot in the Cubs rotation.

As a result of his May arrival, Wells is a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA title and needs another start to reach the minimum. If the minimum is 100 innings pitched, Wells has the lowest ERA of the 2009 rookie class.

Lowest ERA among 2009 Rookies
(min 100 IP)

Rookie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IP. . . . . . . W-L. . . . . . .ERA
Randy Wells, ChC. . . . . . .102.1. . . . . . 8-4. . . . . . . 2.73
J.A. Happ, Phi. . . . . . . . .115.0. . . . . . 8-2. . . . . . . 2.74
Brad Bergesen, Bal. . . . . 123.1. . . . . . 7-5. . . . . . . 3.43
Ricky Romero, Tor. . . . . .109.2. . . . . 10-4. . . . . . . 3.53
Jeff Niemann, TB. . . . . . .114.1. . . . . 10-5. . . . . . . 3.62

Wells hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of his 16 outings, and he’s worked a dozen quality starts. Poor run support kept Wells from posting a “W” his first seven times out, but since then -- in nine starts since Jun 21 -- he is 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA.

As for Romero, he allowed a total of four runs in his first three major league starts in April before an oblique strain forced him on the disabled list for five weeks. He was roughed up and took two of his four losses in his first two outings after he returned. Since then, he’s 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 starts.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Statistics show the deck is stacked against major league hitters when they have two strikes, as they have a .186 two-strike average in 2009.

Facing Giants ace Tim Lincecum with two strikes almost guarantees a one-way ticket to the bench. Hitters are batting just .106 (33-for-312) against him, and that’s the lowest two-strike mark allowed by a starter who has faced at least 100 batters with two strikes.

Lowest Opponent Batting Average by Starters with Two Strikes, 2009
(min 100 batters faced with two strikes)

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . . . .AB. . . . . .OBA
Tim Linecum, SF. . . . . . . 312. . . . . .106
Edinson Volquez, Cin. . . . .92. . . . . .109
Yovani Gallardo, Mil. . . . .274. . . . . .113
John Maine, NYM. . . . . . 117. . . . . .120
Chris Carpenter, StL. . . . 179. . . . . .123

Lincecum’s success in two-strike scenarios is remarkable, as only Detroit’s Justin Verlander has faced more hitters with two strikes in 2009. The Tigers ace has recorded two strikes 379 times, compared to 330 for Lincecum. In those situations, Verlander has limited hitters to a .169 average (60-for-354).

After Verlander and Lincecum, next in garnering the most two-strike situations are Atlanta’s Javier Vazquez and Johan Santana of the Mets, both with 328 batters faced. Vazquez has held those hitters to a .157 mark (49-for-312), while Santana has a .164 opponent batting average (50-for-305).

Among relievers who have recorded two strikes against hitters at least 50 times in 2009, a rookie has the lowest OBA.

Lowest Opponent Batting Average by Relievers with Two Strikes, 2009
(min 50 batters faced with two strikes)

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . . . .AB. . . . . . . OBA
Jason Bulger, LAA . . . . . . 79. . . . . . . .076
Trever Miller, StL . . . . . . 50. . . . . . . .080
Evan Meek, Pit. . . . . . . . .82. . . . . . . .085
Luke Gregerson, SD . . . . .91. . . . . . . .099
Rafael Soriano, Atl. . . . . 111. . . . . . . .099

Retiring hitters after getting ahead in the count is a ticket to success as a reliever, and the Angels’ 30-year-old rookie, Jason Bulger, has done that in his first lengthy stint in the majors. Another rookie, San Diego’s Luke Gregerson, has been downright dominant after struggling in April. He’s also been remarkably successful in two-strike situations.

Not all major leaguers struggle with two strikes. There are three .300 hitters among players with at least 50 two-strike plate appearances. The highest average belongs to Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki, who is a .309 hitter on two-strike counts. He’s 58-for-188 with nine doubles and 13 RBIs.

Two-strike success has played a key role in the strong start of White Sox rookie Gordon Beckham. He’s 25-for-82 (.305) with 10 doubles, two home runs and 16 RBIs. The third .300 hitter in two-strike situations is Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury. He’s hitting .303 (57-for-188) with seven doubles, two triples and nine RBIs.

It’s Beckham who has the most RBIs of the trio, despite having fewer than half as many two-strike at-bats as Ichiro and Ellsbury.

The odds are stacked against a hitter even further when he’s 0-2. The major league average on an 0-2 count is .155 in 2009. If an 0-2 count is likely to make a hitter more defensive, that doesn’t seem to be the case for Toronto’s Marco Scutaro. The veteran shortstop is 11-for-24 with four doubles on 0-2 pitches. Among players who have completed at least 25 at-bats on 0-2 offerings in 2009, Scutaro’s .458 average is easily the highest in the majors.

Ichiro, whose 15 hits on 0-2 counts are the most in the majors, and Ellsbury have been successful on 0-2, as well.

Highest Batting Average on 0-2 Count, 2009
(min 25 PA on 0-2)

Hitter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AB. . . . . . . AVG
Marco Scutaro, Tor. . . . . .24. . . . . . . .458
Ichiro Suzuki, Sea. . . . . . . 42. . . . . . . .357
Bobby Abreu, LAA . . . . . . .33. . . . . . . .333
Jack Wilson, Pit-Sea . . . . . 33. . . . . . . .333
Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos. . . . . 35. . . . . . . .314
Yunel Escobar, Atl. . . . . . .35. . . . . . . .314

Posted by Thom Henninger at 8:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Whether it’s the North Side or the South Side, there’s no place like home for a pair of Chicago hurlers. Since the start of the 2008 season, both White Sox ace Mark Buehrle and Cubs right-hander Ryan Dempster have won 18 games before the hometown fans. No other major league pitcher can match them in home victories.

Dempster has gone 18-4 with a 3.22 ERA at Wrigley Field during this 16-month stretch. He won 10 of 11 home starts to open the 2008 campaign, going 10-0 before losing the final game of the first half. He’s also won six of his last seven home decisions, with the only loss coming at the hands of the White Sox on June 17.

Buehrle also was 18-4 at home over this span before the Yankees roughed him up for seven runs in an 8-5 home loss Sunday. His last home start prior to the Yankees’ ambush was his perfect game against Tampa Bay on July 23. The perfecto was the southpaw’s 15th win in his last 16 decisions at home, dating to the 2008 All-Star break, a stretch in which he had a 2.32 ERA.

With Buehrle’s loss on Sunday, it’s Dempster who has the highest winning percentage among pitchers with at least a dozen home wins since the start of the 2008 season.

Highest Winning Percentage by a Pitcher at Home, 2008-09
(minimum 12 home victories in this span)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W-L. . . . Pct
Ryan Dempster, ChC . . . . . . 18-4. . . . .818
Nick Blackburn, Min. . . . . . .13-3. . . . .813
Jon Lester, Bos. . . . . . . . . .16-4. . . . .800
Tim Lincecum, SF. . . . . . . . .15-4. . . . .789
Kevin Slowey, Min. . . . . . . . 15-4. . . . .789
Mark Buehrle, CWS. . . . . . . 18-5. . . . .783

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s when Baltimore’s Brian Roberts is perched at second base that pitchers should pay the most attention to him. He has stolen 20 bases this season, and 11 of them have been steals of third.

Roberts and Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton share the major league lead with 11 steals of third in 2009, though Roberts is 11-for-11 while Upton has been caught once.

It’s Roberts who is the master of stealing third. Since the start of the 2005 season, he has swiped third base 60 times, the most in the majors.

Steals of Third Base, 2005-09

Player. . . . . . . . . . Steals
Brian Roberts. . . . . . 60
Juan Pierre. . . . . . . .52
Jose Reyes. . . . . . . .50
Ichiro Suzuki. . . . . . .39
Jimmy Rollins. . . . . . .36

The Orioles second baseman, who has been caught only five times in 65 attempts, has the highest success rate among all players who have at least 25 steals of third over this span. Only the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins can match his steal percentage.

Highest Steal Percentage of Third Base, 2005-09
(min 25 steals of third)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . .SB. . . . . .Att. . . . . . Pct
Brian Roberts. . . . . . .60. . . . . . 65. . . . . . 92.3
Jimmy Rollins. . . . . . . 36. . . . . . 39. . . . . . 92.3
Carlos Beltran . . . . . . 35. . . . . . 38. . . . . . 92.1
Juan Pierre. . . . . . . . 52. . . . . . 57. . . . . . 91.2
Ichiro Suzuki . . . . . . .39. . . . . . 43. . . . . . 90.7

All of these guys are adept at moving within 90 feet of home plate on their own, though Roberts is the best. If he reaches second base, he’s a good bet to take third.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The trade deadline always means a surprise or two. A pair of staff aces moved in the final days of July, and arguably the biggest surprise was that one was named Jake Peavy instead of Roy Halladay.

It’s likely the White Sox-Padres trade just before the final bell marked the first time a player was involved in a trade between the same teams twice in the same season -- both times moving in the same direction. Peavy was dealt to Chicago in May and rejected the deal under the terms of his contract.

This time Peavy accepted the move to Chicago.

“He never said no, he just said ‘not yet,”’ White Sox general manager Kenny Williams said after Friday’s deal. It’s still “not yet,” as the 28-year-old right-hander has been on the disabled list since mid-June and won’t return until late August at the earliest. He has been sidelined with a strained tendon in his right ankle.

Give Williams credit once again for flying under the radar and pulling the trigger on a big deal for the stretch run. This deal is more than just a short-term answer, of course, as Peavy signed a lengthy contract extension in December 2007. According to Rotowire, he will be paid $15 million next season, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012, plus a $22 million option for 2013.

Meanwhile, the trade deadline’s most targeted prize, Roy Halladay, isn’t going anywhere -- at least for now. Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said he wouldn’t deal the right-hander unless he was overwhelmed by a trade offer, and it wasn’t just posturing. He smartly kept Halladay, his 32-year-old ace. Why would he deal Halladay if the Jays are as close to competing as Ricciardi has often implied?

Perhaps Halladay will have a new address by the start of the 2010 season, but that wouldn’t be a smart move. Since Halladay moved into Toronto’s rotation for good in 2002, no major league pitcher has posted more wins:

Most Wins, 2002-2009

Roy Halladay. . . . 124
Roy Oswalt. . . . . 121
Johan Santana. . .118
Derek Lowe. . . . .116
Mark Buehrle. . . .113
CC Sabathia. . . . .110

Halladay is 124-53 in this span, good for a .701 winning percentage. There are 129 major league pitchers who have won at least 40 games over these years, and Halladay is the only one with a winning percentage of .700 or higher.

The Blue Jays ditched the remains of one of a number of high-dollar contracts when Ricciardi dealt Scott Rolen to Cincinnati on Friday. Still, thanks to the general manager, the Jays are stuck with tens of millions of dollars in bad contracts for a number of veterans. Halladay is the one guy who may be worth the money he’s paid. Although Ricciardi made the right call in keeping Halladay, he’s the guy who should have a new working address next spring.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 8:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen isn’t one to hold back if something’s on his mind. A thought only needs to pass through his mind to make its way into print, as he often fires away without thinking through a subject first.

Guillen was at it again after the names of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were leaked in a New York Times report about the 104 players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003.

“Can somebody in baseball, please, we're begging people, get that stupid list out and move on,” Guillen told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. “This is ridiculous. This is embarrassing. It’s a joke.”

It’s a joke? To whom? To the players who have had results of an anonymous 2003 test made public?

As much as baseball fans would like to have full disclosure of the steroid era, it’s unethical -- and possibly illegal -- that these leaks are making their way into print. Your thinking may be that those who do wrong should be exposed, and shouldn’t have the same protections and guarantees as those who are innocent.

Think about that for a minute. What if the company you worked for released delicate personal information about you -- say, the negatives of your performance review or an indiscretion you may have been guilty of on the job -- when you thought it was protected information? At that point, does it matter if what you did is wrong or right?

Failing a single drug test doesn’t mean the accused is a chronic user or abuser. Can we even be sure the result of a drug test is always accurate? The 2003 test was an initial inquiry to discover how widespread drug use was, an anonymous one that was to be destroyed without punitive action, in exchange for honesty. More than five years later, players are being punished with the release of confidential information.

Players having their rights trampled by unethical disclosure should be a concern of all Americans, rather than a rallying cry for more information. We live in a time in which more of our personal data than ever is readily available to anyone.

The lawyers leaking this protected information should be earning their fair share of the wrath for their behavior. As much as this writer would like to know who has cheated, it shouldn’t come at the cost of personal protections under the law.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Today is the birthday of one of the most fascinating characters in the history of the game, Casey Stengel, who was born 119 years ago. For half a century, the man delighted baseball fans and sportswriters with his subversive nature, an assortment of pranks, and his colorful though butchered take of the English language.

It was a mere 60 years ago that the eccentric and clownish Stengel took over as manager of the New York Yankees. His appointment was a surprise choice by Yankees architect and GM George Weiss, who epitomized the staid personality of an organization that was expected to win every season.

After a disappointing third-place finish by the Yankees in 1948, Stengel was seen by many as an interim option at a time the Yankees might not have the goods for a year or two. After all, he had never managed a big league team to a first-division finish in nine years at the helm of the Brooklyn Dodgers and Boston Braves. In the short term, though, Stengel’s entertaining and captivating personality could deflect negative attention from a retooling baseball team.

To Weiss’ credit, however, he recognized that his new manager was a committed baseball man, a fine teacher who demonstrated a rapid-fire ability to execute smart baseball decisions on the field. Those qualities weren’t evident when Stengel spoke at the press conference to announce his hiring. “This is a big job, fellows, and I barely have had time to study it,” the Old Perfessor said in his trademark Stengelese. “In fact, I scarcely know where I am at.”

Of course, Stengel had more than an inclination of where he was at. In 12 seasons at the helm of the Yankees, Stengel failed to lead his club to the AL pennant only twice -- in 1954 and 1959, when Al Lopez skippered the Indians and White Sox, respectively, to World Series berths.

Stengel was at his best in 1949, when he maneuvered the Yankees through an astounding 71 injuries en route to 97 wins. The most noteworthy was a serious heel injury that sidelined New York’s best player, Joe DiMaggio, for the first 65 games of the season. Still, the Yankees claimed the AL championship by a single game over the Red Sox, who they beat on the final day to set up a Yankees-Giants World Series in New York City.

It was the first of five straight AL flags for the team in the Bronx, and each was punctuated by the Yankees celebrating the last out of the World Series. No manager in major league history had piloted his team to five straight world championships, until Stengel did it in his first five summers with New York.

His success as a manager astounded nearly everyone. As a player, Stengel was mostly known for his antics and irreverence, often directed at team management. In his years with the Brooklyn Robins during the dead-ball era, Stengel once returned an unsigned contract to owner Charles Ebbets, with a “Dear Charley” letter that concluded he must have been mistakenly sent a contract intended for the clubhouse go-fer who kept track of the team’s bats.

There seem to be far more recorded accounts of Stengel’s pranks than his success on the field. You seldom read about his two game-winning home runs for the New York Giants in the 1923 World Series. One was an inside-the-park job in the ninth inning at cavernous Yankee Stadium, good for a 5-4 Giants victory in Game 1. Stengel was 5-for-12 in the Series, but the Giants won only the two games in which he provided the winning margin.

More famous are stories of Stengel amusing fans by catching flyballs behind his back, taking batting practice with his uniform on backwards as a Phillie in 1920, and popping out of a manhole in the outfield to catch a flyball.

In a spring training game as a minor leaguer in 1912, Stengel discovered a manhole cover in center field. He climbed into the shallow hole beneath it between batters at one point of the game, and peered out from under the cover to see players and fans bewildered by his absence when a high fly came his way. Then he delightfully made his appearance in time to record the out with a one-handed catch.

Perhaps the most widely known and funniest antic by Stengel took place on his first trip to Brooklyn after his beloved Robins had dealt him to Pittsburgh during the 1919 season. Robert W. Creamer, the author of Stengel: His Life and Times, gives a vivid account of his return. He tells how Stengel, the Pirates’ right fielder, spent a few half-innings in the Brooklyn bullpen near the right-field wall, which was an Ebbets Field tradition for National League right fielders when they didn’t expect to bat in an inning. During one of his stays there, Stengel discovered that Brooklyn pitcher and former roommate Leon Cadore had caught a sparrow.

Here’s Creamer’s account of what went down:

“Let me have it,” Casey said impulsively, the germ of an idea forming in his mind. He covered the sparrow with his cap and carried it into the dugout. Just before he went out to bat he put the bird on his head under his cap. The crowd greeted him with mock applause and a round of good-natured boos. Casey turned toward the stands, bowed and lifted his cap, and there was the sparrow, which immediately fluttered away. The crowd howled, and even the plate umpire, Cy Rigler, joined in the laughter.

Nearly 40 years later in the fall of 1960, two days after Pirates second sacker Bill Mazeroski hit the Game 7 home run that gave Pittsburgh the upset win in the World Series, Stengel was forced out as the Yankees skipper to make room for highly regarded managerial candidate Ralph Houk. Yankees co-owner Dan Topping cited Stengel’s age as the reason for his release, to which Casey replied bitterly, “I’ll never make the mistake of being 70 again.”

Stengel departed the Bronx with seven World Series titles in 12 seasons. Weiss was cut loose a short time later, and both surfaced in Flushing with the new expansion team in New York in 1962. Once again Stengel had a classic response to being hired by a New York club.

“It’s great to be back in the Polar Grounds again with the New York Knickerbockers,” Stengel quipped as the first skipper of the lovable losers known as the Mets. This was the situation where a franchise needed a manager to deflect attention away from poor performance, and Stengel did it artfully as his team lost 120 games in its inaugural season. He became the face of the franchise in its earliest days, and won over hearts and minds.

It’s also during this time that Stengel asked the burning question that lingered in Flushing throughout most of the 1960s: “Can’t anybody here play this game?” Not very well, but Stengel skillfully distracted the press from the frustration on the field.

A broken hip in 1965 forced Stengel to retire from baseball, a week shy of his 75th birthday. He worked briefly for a California bank, with a sign on his desk that read, “Stengelese spoken here.”

It’s unfortunate he isn’t around to speak it today. Baseball, which has become so much about money that there’s little room for eccentrics and subversives, could use a few guys like Casey. He certainly lived a fascinating life.

“There comes a time in every man’s life,” Stengel once said, “and I’ve had plenty of them.”

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Angels have won eight straight and their 9-1 record since the All-Star break is the best in the major leagues. Now 20 games over .500, they seem to be breaking away from the pack in the mediocre American League West.

The surprising Texas Rangers led the AL West for much of the first half, but they have fallen 4.5 games behind the Angels after dropping a 6-3 decision to the Kansas City Royals on Saturday. The loss halted a five-game winning streak, during which the Texas staff had allowed a total of just nine runs, yet the Rangers were unable to gain ground on the red-hot Angels with their surge.

Due to injuries, the Angels rotation was missing John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar to start the season, but as expected, Los Angeles has emerged as the best team in the division. The AL West race looks over, but there’s been a noteworthy development in Texas that could keep the Rangers in the thick of it.

After posting a 5.37 ERA and .288 OBA last season, the worst marks in the major leagues, Texas pitching has been markedly better in 2009. The staff ranks in the middle of the big league pack with a 4.22 ERA and .261 OBA this season. The improvement was substantial in May, when the Rangers went 20-9, and the hurlers have been at least as good in July after a rough patch last month.

Texas Pitching by Month, 2009

. . . . . . . . W-L. . . . . . .ERA. . . . . . OBA. . . . . .OSLG
April. . . . .10-11. . . . . . 5.70. . . . . . .287. . . . . . .479
May. . . . . 20-9. . . . . . .3.57. . . . . . .251. . . . . . .393
June. . . . 11-15. . . . . . 4.24. . . . . . .265. . . . . . .432
July . . . . 12-7 . . . . . . .3.57. . . . . . .240. . . . . . .373

Although the Rangers are just 5-3 since the All-Star break, their pitching staff ranks among the best with a 2.92 ERA and .226 OBA in this span of games. The club’s post-break performance includes four quality starts by the starters, two of which were pitched by ace Kevin Millwood and rookie Tommy Hunter in the Rangers’ three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox this past week.

Millwood bounced back Monday after a stretch of three rough starts to open July, but Hunter, recalled on June 28, has picked up the slack. He has allowed a total of four runs in four outings, though he’s just 2-1 in this stretch because of a lack of run support.

Scott Feldman worked the other two quality starts since the break, including eight shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Royals on Friday. The 26-year-old southpaw has now worked six consecutive quality outings, a span in which he is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA.

The bullpen has been terrific since the All-Star break, as well. It’s posted a 1.69 ERA and .154 OBA over 26.2 innings, and C.J. Wilson and rookie Doug Mathis have converted all four save chances. Wilson saved two of the victories over the Red Sox, and Mathis nailed down the middle game with 3.1 innings of one-hit ball in a 3-1 win. It was the rookie right-hander’s first major league save.

It may seem the Angels are on the verge of burying the Rangers. The Angels certainly have the talent to make them go away, but the Texas pitching staff has become an asset that just might keep the team in the AL West chase.

On the other hand, the Angels are a player in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, and the Rangers’ chances of sticking around could go out the window if Toronto’s ace moves to Anaheim.

Reportedly the Phillies have cooled on Halladay with the Blue Jays pushing to acquire both J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek in a deal. Reports suggest the Yankees are just as hesitant as the Phils when the names of both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes surface together in trade discussions.

It’s also unlikely the Angels will offer two premium pitching prospects to Toronto -- and that may kill any chance of a deal -- but they have dangled both Jered Weaver and infield prospect Brandon Wood, who is pounding Triple-A pitching for a second straight season and could take over at third if Scott Rolen is dealt.

In light of Toronto’s asking price, Halladay may not change addresses this week. That would be good news for Texas and a host of other middle-market teams that are looking to stay in contention down the stretch.

Wouldn’t it be something if the Rangers cashed in a couple of their promising young arms for Halladay? With or without Halladay, if the Rangers are able to stay close in the West, it’ll be the pitching staff that leads the way.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Matt Holliday is returning to the National League, as the St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly traded three prospects, including highly regarded third baseman Brett Wallace, for the veteran outfielder.

Early reports are speculating that Holliday will move into the cleanup spot in St. Louis, and one suggested the newest Cardinal will provide Albert Pujols the best lineup protection he’s had since arriving in St. Louis.

Sure, Holliday is a .315 career hitter and delivered more than 30 homers and 100 RBIs in both 2006 and 2007. And yes, he’s hitting .338 and slugging .574 with 14 RBIs in 18 July contests, perhaps a sign of better things to come, but it’s not likely he’ll deliver the kind of numbers he generated in his best years in Denver.

Although Holliday may benefit from a return to the National League, and show some renewed spark by jumping into a pennant race, it’s worth noting that the former Rockie isn’t returning to Denver.

Like many of his former teammates, Holliday was a far more productive hitter at Coors Field than on the road. In light of his road performance in his five seasons with Colorado, Holliday’s performance in Oakland is about what the Cardinals -- or any team looking to sign him long-term after the season -- can expect.

Matt Holliday, Oakland Numbers vs. 2004-08 Road Numbers
(HR & RBIs are averages per 162 games)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hit Percentages. . . . . HR. . . .RBIs
With Oak 2009. . . . . . . . . . .286/.378/.454. . . . . . 19. . . . .94
On Road 2004-08 . . . . . . . . .280/.348/.455. . . . . . 21. . . . .84

That’s not to say Holliday won’t provide run production in St. Louis, but expectations should be realistic. It’s conceivable the right-handed hitter will have a solid second half in his new surroundings, but it’s at least as likely that the Cardinals overpaid for Holliday -- and another team will do it again over the winter.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Going into the 2009 season, if anyone anticipated a National League West team claiming a wild-card berth, it certainly wouldn’t have been the San Francisco Giants or the Colorado Rockies.

Yet, here it is, roughly 90 games into the campaign, and the 49-41 Giants are the wild-card leader. And just a half-game behind them are the 49-42 Rockies.

The contenders one might have expected atop the wild-card standings -- the Brewers, Cubs, Braves and Mets -- are floundering near the .500 mark. Those teams are a good bet to perform better down the stretch, and the two NL West clubs face a decision whether they are buyers or sellers leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

At the moment, the playoff picture may look just a tad rosier for the Rockies, who are 31-14 since Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle in late May. They have won seven of their last 10 games since the Fourth of July weekend. The surge began with a three-game sweep of the lowly Nats, and continued with a pair of wins in San Diego to open the second half before the Rockies dropped a 3-1 decision to the Padres last night.

A key surprise has been the Colorado rotation, as Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook have been remarkably successful at generating groundballs and victories. Despite pitching half their games in Denver, all three have sub-4.00 ERAs on the season.

The bullpen has been terrific during Colorado’s nine-game surge, posting a 2.73 ERA and .165 OBA -- mostly at home -- en route to four one-run victories and a 5-3 win over the Padres on Friday night. Rockies relievers have allowed just four runs over 21.1 innings (1.69) in the team’s last seven victories.

The offense has been solid, too, delivering 23 doubles and 10 home runs during the Rockies’ 7-3 run. The hottest Rock in this stretch is Todd Helton, who is 13-for-31 (.419) with six doubles and a homer. Troy Tulowitzki has scored nine runs and powered three home runs, and Clint Barmes leads the club with eight RBIs.

The player the Rockies most want to move is Garrett Atkins, who is playing more to be showcased for a trade. The corner infielder is batting .333 (13-for-39) in his last 13 games, bumping his average 20 points to .226.

The team’s recent success may be changing what the Rockies would like to get for Atkins. Perhaps the front office is looking more at the team’s immediate needs. Reportedly the Rockies have set their sights on relievers, as the pen was a key weakness for most of the first half.

Colorado has shown interest in Cincinnati’s Nick Masset, as the Reds have relievers to trade, but Cincinnati Enquirer sportswriter John Fay says the dependable right-hander isn’t going anywhere. There’s also been talk of Seattle acquiring Atkins to replace injured third baseman Adrian Beltre. The Mariners have power arms to spare, but they look less like contenders now than when those rumors circulated at the start of July. The Mets also have inquired about Atkins.

Meanwhile, the Giants had won 10 of 14 games. . . before dropping the final game before the break and losing twice in Pittsburgh to open the second half. The Giants, though, certainly have something the Rockies don’t: a pair of aces in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

Both right-handers are on a roll. In his last five starts, Lincecum is 4-0 with 1.16 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 38.2 innings. Cain has allowed more than a single earned run only once in his last six outings, a stretch in which he is just 2-1 despite a 2.06 ERA and .199 OBA.

Cain has a history of receiving poor run support in San Francisco, and that’s the case again after he was provided all kinds of runs early in the season. He took a line drive off his throwing elbow just prior to the break, but he’s still on course to face the Pirates on Sunday.

Scoring runs has been a season-long problem for the power-challenged Giants. They have stumbled along at 12-10 in their last 22 games, and have scored more than a single run in only three of those 10 losses. Pablo Sandoval, Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina have carried the offensive load in 2009, and that’s not the same as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez.

Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle says the Giants are keeping an eye on the tradable commodity across the Bay. Oakland is likely to move Matt Holliday, and the Giants would love to keep him out of the hands of other National League wild-card contenders. He hasn’t hit much for the A’s, but a return to the familiar NL West and a chance to play for a contender (or even a pretender) might provide a spark.

With Randy Johnson’s return from the disabled list looming, there’s buzz in the Bay Area about cutting strings with Barry Zito. That may be the long-term solution, but it’s not likely to happen if he gives the Giants a chance to win more often than not.

As bad as the San Francisco offense and Zito can be, that’s been the case of late. He worked 8.1 scoreless innings in a win over Florida on July 7, and pitched 6.1 innings of a 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh Saturday. For now, there are plenty of starting pitchers taking a regular turn who are worse options than the Giants’ free-agent bust.

The two wild-card hopefuls square off in Denver next weekend. That begins a tough stretch for the Rockies, who then embark on a 10-game road trip that includes seven matchups with the Mets and Phillies.

The Giants face a key challenge before they travel to Denver next week. They open a four-game set in Atlanta on Monday, so it’s back-to-back road series with wild-card contenders in the next seven days. Then, the weekend after facing the Rockies, the Giants will host the Phillies for four games.

The trade deadline is less than two weeks away. By then, both teams may have a better idea if they’re playing for this year, or trading away commodities that will make their long-shot playoff bids even more remote.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The All-Star weekend in St. Louis provided Ichiro Suzuki an opportunity to honor the man who held the single-season hits record for 84 years before the Seattle star broke the mark with 262 in 2004.

St. Louis Browns star George Sisler had collected 257 hits in 1920, and Ichiro, in town for his ninth All-Star game, placed flowers at the Hall of Famer’s gravesite. When Ichiro broke the record in October 2004, Sisler's descendants, including his 81-year-old daughter, Frances Sisler Drochelman, traveled to Seattle to witness the historic feat. In St. Louis this weekend, Ichiro returned the favor.

"I wanted to do that for a grand upperclassman of the baseball world," Ichiro told MLB.com. "I think it's only natural for someone to want to do that, to express my feelings in that way."

Recognizing one of the greats of the North American game was especially noteworthy, considering Ichiro didn’t grow up following the major leagues on this continent. He said he did what came natural, but he deserves credit for doing what most of his peers are less inclined to do: honor those who came before them.

That may sound like the typical sour grapes of a major leaguer after he retires. The old-timers always believe the young ones lack the same respect for the game, but there’s some truth to that.

After reading of Ichiro’s gesture, this writer can’t help but think of another former St. Louis star, Curt Flood. The seven-time Gold Glove winner played a key role in baseball’s labor movement, when he refused to accept a 1969 trade and challenged MLB’s reserve clause in court. Although he lost his case before the U.S. Supreme Court, the process sparked solidarity among players and the reserve clause was defeated in 1975, opening the door to free agency.

Flood was a pivotal figure in improving the lot of today’s major leaguers, but when he died in 1997, the story goes that not one active player attended his funeral. Ichiro seems to have a greater appreciation of his game’s history -- on either side of the Pacific.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For an assortment of reasons, we all need to vent at times. Each July, this writer takes time out for an annual rant against having the All-Star Game determine home-field advantage for the World Series.

The All-Star Game has been little more than an exhibition for fans, who get the rare opportunity to set a big league lineup for a day. It’s always been pageantry, a feel-good event, and it was an overreaction by MLB to turn it into a meaningful game after the two leagues ran out of pitchers in the 2002 Midsummer Classic.

If it’s going to be a game with consequences, it’s time to eliminate the antiquated rule that requires a player from each team be on the All-Star rosters. The leagues have grown substantially since the rule was adopted, and it certainly doesn’t serve their interests now that winning the All-Star Game determines which league gets home-field advantage in the World Series.

Another aspect of the All-Star pageantry is managers feeling obligated to play nearly everyone on the roster. If the game is close in the late innings, we are unlikely to see the best players taking critical at-bats.

And to ensure the best possible teams are on the field, should fans relinquish the right to vote for the starters? After all, the players probably know best who are most deserving among their peers.

That might seem like an overreaction by this writer, but the significance of home-field advantage in recent World Series play can’t be denied.

Since 1982, the team with home-field advantage has won 20 of 26 World Series. The only clubs to overcome home-field advantage in this stretch are the 1984 Tigers, 1992 Blue Jays, 1999 Yankees, 2003 Marlins, 2006 Cardinals and last year’s Phillies.

Clinching a World Series title on the road in a sixth or seventh game has been nearly impossible, with the home team posting an 18-3 record in Games 6 and 7 since 1982. No home team has lost a Game 7 since Pittsburgh came back from a 3-1 deficit and won the final two games of the 1979 Fall Classic at Baltimore's Memorial Stadium. Since then, the home team is 8-0 in Game 7. Visiting clubs don't fare much better in Game 6, going 3-10.

An exhibition game in July shouldn't play a role in deciding who wins the last game of the season in October. Giving home-field advantage to the team with the best regular-season record is a better idea, but the power of television may prevent that from ever being an option.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Dodgers seemed to have a productive cornerstone in place when catching prospect Russell Martin made an impressive big league debut in 2006. He arrived in May and batted .282/.355/.436 with 10 home runs and 65 RBIs in 121 games.

At age 24 in 2007, Martin caught 145 games and hit .293-19-87 with 32 doubles and 21 stolen bases. He stole another 18 bags last season, when he was behind the plate for 149 games, but his production dropped off markedly after the All-Star break. Martin hit only three homers and slugged .336 during the second half for the Dodgers.

His 2007 performance looks like an aberration at this point. After catching nearly 150 games in each of the last two seasons -- and leading all National League backstops in plate appearances both years -- the right-handed batter is hitting .252/.368/.301 in 2009. In 75 games, he’s collected just 10 doubles and one home run. Thanks to his 45 walks, he has managed to score 33 runs, but a lot more is expected from Martin.

Although there’s probably more at work here, it wouldn’t hurt to give this guy more rest. He’s appeared behind the plate in 70 of the Dodgers’ 82 games, so he’s still on course to catch roughly 140 games.

Martin’s backup is 40-year-old Brad Ausmus, who played 81 games for Houston last season but is still looking to make his 20th appearance for the Dodgers in 2009. He happens to be hitting .283 with a .345 OBP in 60 plate appearances, so it isn’t as though the Dodgers can’t afford to give him a few more at-bats. Perhaps they can’t afford not to.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Florida Marlins pulled into a first-place tie with Philadelphia by virtue of their three-game sweep of Washington this week. The bullpen played a key role against the visiting Nationals, allowing just two runs in 9.1 innings.

The relievers were especially critical in Wednesday’s 5-3 come-from-behind victory. Josh Johnson departed in the fourth frame after struggling with his control, and the pen worked the final 5.2 innings while the game was decided.

The bullpen’s success in the Washington series may come to mean more than the raw numbers alone. The pen has been schizophrenic in its home-road performance all season long. The relievers haven’t been effective at their pitcher-friendly home park, as they had recorded a 5.45 ERA and 10 blown saves at Land Shark Stadium before the Nats came to town. They had more blown opportunities than saves (9), and opponents were hitting .288 against them there.

Away from home, on the other hand, the pen has a 2.33 ERA and has converted eight of nine save chances. The home team is hitting just .205 against Marlins relievers.

Taking advantage of what your home park offers is critical to contending, so a better home performance by the relief corps could be a deciding factor whether the Marlins stick around in the National League East race.

Is the bullpen’s work against Washington a definite sign of a turnaround? That’s the million-dollar question. Florida’s pen was roughed up in two of three games at home against Baltimore last weekend, though the Marlins swept the Orioles and have an eight-game home winning streak with Pittsburgh in town for the holiday weekend.

The road success has been remarkable. Six Florida relievers -- Kiko Calero, Matt Lindstrom, Dan Meyer, Renyel Pinto, Leo Nunez and Hayden Penn -- have combined to allow just 10 runs over 78.2 innings of road work. As a group, that’s good for a 1.14 ERA.

Going into this weekend’s series at home, only Meyer (3.00), Calero (3.38) and Pinto (4.02) have ERAs lower than 5.00 at Land Shark. Then there’s Nunez (5.85), Lindstrom (10.59) and Penn (12.75). Each of the three has allowed more runs at home than the entire group has given up on the road.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The game’s best hitter in June was Albert Pujols. The Cardinals star led the majors in both home runs (14) and RBIs (35) last month, when he slugged .856 in 29 games -- a mark that was 111 points higher than any other big league regular.

In the Cardinals’ final game of the month, Pujols homered twice off Randy Johnson to push his major league lead to 30 for the season. He generated all three St. Louis runs in a 6-3 loss to the Giants.

That was the story all month long for the Cardinals. Pujols beat up on pitchers in both leagues, but his team finished just 12-17 in June. The slugger’s 35 RBIs were 32.7 percent of the Cardinals’ 107 RBIs, and only two players since 1980 have collected a higher percentage of his team’s ribbies in a month. They are Atlanta’s Dale Murphy in April 1985 (29 RBIs, 41.4 percent), and Jose Guillen (23 RBIs, 32.9 percent) for Pittsburgh in September 1998.

The Cardinals remain within striking distance of first place in the National League Central, but where would they be without Pujols? That question is appropriate looking at the entire season as well.

Pujols, who also leads the majors with 61 runs scored and 77 RBIs, has accounted for 23.3 percent of his team’s RBIs on the season. He’s on pace to post among the highest single-season percentages in major league history.

Highest Percentage of a Team’s RBIs in a Season, All-Time

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . Team. . . . . . . . . RBIs. . . . . . . . . . . Pct
Nate Colbert. . . . . . 1972 Padres. . . . . . . .111. . . . . . . . . . . 24.6
Wally Berger. . . . . . 1935 Braves. . . . . . . . 130. . . . . . . . . . . 23.9
Gavy Cravath. . . . . . 1915 Phillies. . . . . . . .115. . . . . . . . . . . 23.7
Albert Pujols. . . . . . 2009 Cardinals. . . . . . 156*. . . . . . . . . . .23.3
Babe Ruth . . . . . . . 1919 Red Sox. . . . . . . 114. . . . . . . . . . . 23.1

*projected total

There’s a long way to go, of course, but Pujols’ second-half hitting percentages over his career (.344/.433/.641) are better than his first-half numbers. It’s probably impossible to improve on the first half he’s having, but it’s worth noting that on Tuesday, Pujols became only the eighth player in major league history to hit 30 home runs before July 1. If he keeps delivering for the Cardinals, he could make a push to become the sixth major leaguer to hit 60 in a season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The bullpen looked like the Minnesota Twins’ weak link going into the 2009 season. The team had lost its eighth-inning guy, Pat Neshek, to Tommy John surgery last fall, and the free-agent answer was Luis Ayala, coming off a poor season with Washington.

April was a rough month for Minnesota’s relievers, who collectively posted a 6.14 ERA and gave up nine home runs in 22 games. With a few starters struggling as well, the pen assumed a heavy workload at the start of May, and gave up four or more runs in four of 14 games during the first half of the month.

Then there was a rough spot in mid-May, when the pen allowed 10 runs in a five-game stretch. Since May 20, however, the relievers have been far better.

Twins Bullpen, 2009

Span. . . . . . . . . . . . ERA. . . . . OBA. . . . .OSLG. . . Sv/Opp
Through 5/19. . . . . . 5.26. . . . . .274. . . . . .462. . . . . 6/13
May 20 & Since . . . . 2.25. . . . . .211. . . . . .341. . . . .13/14

Since the magic began on May 20, Twins closer Joe Nathan hasn’t allowed a run in 15.1 innings. He’s given up just seven hits and a walk, fanned 22 and converted all 13 of his save chances. Nathan’s been terrific all year, but he’s been untouchable during the bullpen’s resurgence.

Nearly as impressive during this stretch are two right-handed relievers. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has been touched for only three runs and has a 1.25 ERA in 21.2 frames, during which he has allowed a .171 OBA. Matt Guerrier has given up just two runs in 13.2 innings, good for a 1.32 ERA, and has claimed two wins.

Meanwhile, Ayala talked his way off the team, complaining about how he was being used and stressing the importance of pitching in the setup role in a walk year. That didn’t play well with Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire, and Ayala was cut loose on June 23, despite pitching better himself during the bullpen’s turnaround.

Rookie right-hander Bobby Keppel, closing in on a decade in the minor leagues, surfaced as Ayala’s replacement on the roster, and he’s already given the Twins four innings of scoreless relief.

It can’t hurt that a few of the starters have come around after slow starts. The pen hasn’t been getting as much work in the middle innings, and that could be contributing to its improved performance.

The young starters were expected to keep the Twins in contention in 2009, even if the lineup didn’t deliver the run production usually associated with a contender. Although Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey have been dependable all spring, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins have been inconsistent for much of it.

All three are showing signs of getting back on track, and that is critical to Minnesota staying close to Detroit in the American League Central race. If the rotation continues to deliver, it becomes equally important that the bullpen can finish off fine performances.

That’s happening more consistently at the moment, but it’s by no means guaranteed that Twins relievers will sustain their current success. Trading for a legitimate eighth-inning guy would be a big help.

There’s been talk of the Twins acquiring LaTroy Hawkins to fill that role. The veteran right-hander, who was a key piece of the Minnesota bullpen early in the decade, is having a career year for the Astros. He has recorded a 2.62 ERA in 35 games, as well as 10 saves filling in for closer Jose Valverde in May and June.

As good as Guerrier and Dickey have been for the Twins, adding Hawkins could only help in recording key outs before turning leads over to Nathan.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Stealing second base with a southpaw on the mound is no easy task, but a few have made it look easy in 2009. There are four big leaguers who have stolen more than five bases off lefties, and all of them have solid steal percentages.

Most SB of Second Base vs. LHP, 2009
(does not include double steals)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .SB. . . Att. . . . Pct
Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos. . . . . . 7. . . . .8. . . . .87.5
David Wright, NYM. . . . . . . .6. . . . .7. . . . .85.7
Scott Podsednik, CWS. . . . . 6. . . . .7. . . . .85.7
Dustin Pedroia, Bos. . . . . . .6. . . . .8. . . . .75.0

The surprise member of the group would have to be the Mets’ David Wright, who has stolen 19 bags so far this season. He’s easily on course to surpass his single-season high of 34 steals in 2007. The third baseman is batting .356 to lead all National League hitters, which is 54 points higher than he did a year ago.

His 22 doubles put him on course to set a new personal high in 2009, but otherwise he seems to be taking an approach that means more contact, a better average and fewer home runs. He has just four homers after setting a new single-season standard with 33 in 2008.

Wright certainly doesn’t have much trouble reading left-handers when he’s perched at first base. Take away his 6-for-7 performance stealing second against them, though, and he’s 13-for-20 (65.0 percent) in his remaining stolen-base attempts.

That tendency plays out for both Scott Podsednik and Jacoby Ellsbury, too. Podsednik is 6-for-7 swiping second versus lefties, but just 4-for-7 (57.1 percent) in his other attempts. Ellsbury is 24-for-29 (82.8 percent) when you look beyond his 7-for-8 performance against left-handers.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There’s another side of the 3-0 count covered yesterday -- the pitcher’s side. It’s a ticket for trouble to start 3-0 to a hitter, as all 2009 plate appearances that have gone that route have generated a .755 on-base percentage.

There are 39 major league hurlers who have opened with three straight balls to a hitter at least 20 times in 2009. Only two of them have walked less than half of their 3-0 batters, and Detroit’s Edwin Jackson has been the best at avoiding the walk, by a large margin. Only seven of his 21 batters faced were issued a free pass (33.3 percent). The other is Oakland’s Trevor Cahill, who has walked 13 of his 28 opponents (46.4 percent).

In Jackson’s 14 other 3-0 situations, however, he’s given up eight hits for a .571 OBA, including two doubles and a home run. Among the group of 39, only Washington’s Shairon Martis (.750, 3-for-4) and Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa (.667, 4-for-6) have allowed higher OBAs.

Cahill has found a better balance between Ball 4 and throwing a hittable pitch to avoid the walk. Opponents are 4-for-14 (.286) against him when they don’t get a free ticket to first.

Even better is the Phillies’ Joe Blanton. The right-hander has walked exactly half of the 20 batters against whom he opened 3-0. The other 10 are just 2-for-10 with a home run off him.

One tick better, and currently the best at keeping 3-0 batters off base, is Florida’s Chris Volstad. He’s walked 10 of his 20 batters faced and held the rest to a 1-for-10 performance.

The 22-year-old right-hander has allowed a .550 OBP that is the lowest among the 39 pitchers who have gone 3-0 at least 20 times. Next after Volstad is Blanton with a .600 OBP allowed. Cahill is third at .607.

In light of the major league-wide .755 OBP for hitters who started 3-0 in the count, keeping opposing hitters off base obviously gets far more difficult after missing the strike zone with the first three pitches. It’s nearly impossible to walk less than half of those hitters, and there’s no room for a mistake pitch while trying to recover from a rough start to a plate appearance.

A few, such as Volstad, Blanton and Cahill, have successfully executed plenty of pitches to get as many outs as they have against their 3-0 batters. On the other hand, starting 3-0 at least 20 times this spring suggests pitch execution could be better earlier in the count as well.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There wouldn’t seem to be much intrigue to a 3-0 count. Most players don’t offer at the next pitch, and those who have a green light aren’t like to take a cut unless it’s in their preferred hitting zone. Throwing a strike, yet keeping it out of a hitter’s wheelhouse, is the key for a pitcher.

When some hitters go up 3-0, it might be better for a pitcher to throw his next offering out of the strike zone. That would be the case for the Angels’ Juan Rivera. When he’s hacking on 3-0, the outfielder is 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles, good for the most hits among all big leaguers in a 3-0 count. He’s driven in a pair of runs in those at-bats.

Two other big leaguers, Houston’s Lance Berkman and Ryan Howard of the Phillies, are 2-for-2 when putting the ball in play on 3-0. The Astros first baseman picked up his only triple of the season in one of those two trips to the plate.

No one else has more than a single hit on a 3-0 count in 2009. Among the group of 37 major leaguers with at least one hit, six have cashed in with a home run. Three of them have homered in their only at-bat on a 3-0 count: Colorado’s Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado of the Mets and the Angels’ Mike Napoli. The other three are Tampa Bay’s Jorge Cantu (1-for-3 in 3-0 counts) and a pair of Nats -- Elijah Dukes (1-for-2) and Adam Dunn (1-for-3).

Pitchers are less likely to throw one in there to the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols. In 3-0 situations, the slugger has been walked in 36 of 40 plate appearances -- 22 times intentionally. No one comes close to his 36 walks. Next in walks in 3-0 counts is San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez with 24 in 25 such situations, including nine intentional.

That’s showing respect to a couple of power hitters who can jump on mistakes or get-me-over pitches and drive them a long way. Rivera may not have the reputation of a feared slugger, but perhaps it makes just as much sense to stay away from the plate when he starts 3-0.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s common for a rookie to be inconsistent in his debut season. The first lengthy exposure to the major leagues is a marathon with plenty of ups and downs, and a rookie’s ability to weather and rebound from the lows is a key to success.

That’s been the difference between two highly regarded center-field prospects who made the jump from Double-A ball to the big leagues this spring.

Atlanta’s Jordan Schafer got off to a terrific start in April, homering in his first major league at-bat and collecting two hits in the game. He started 8-for-19 (.421) with two doubles and two home runs, but after peaking at .277/.397/.446 on April 28, a long, slow descent began. May was a dreadful month for Schafer, who was sent to Triple-A Gwinnett on June 2 with hitting percentages of .204/.313/.287.

Colby Rasmus of the Cardinals has certainly seen his share of highs and lows in his first two-and-a-half months in the majors. He’s managed to rebound from the rough spots, however, and that’s kept him in the St. Louis lineup. When you look at Rasmus’ numbers at the various peaks and valleys this spring, what’s notable is that he’s steadily shown more power even when he’s struggled to make contact.

Rasmus: AVG & SLG on Various Days of 2009 Season

Date. . . . . AVG. . . . .SLG
April 10. . . .167. . . . . .167
April 23. . . .310. . . . . .381
May 27 . . . .232. . . . . .399
June 18 . . .272. . . . . .467

Much like Schafer, Rasmus’ performance took a dip in May, when he hit .212/.256/.447. Yet, he collected his first five big league home runs during the month and drove in 15 runs in 26 games. The left-handed hitter opened June with a 10-game hitting streak in which he batted .469 (15-for-32) with six doubles and two more homers.

After going hitless on two consecutive days to end the streak, Rasmus was 5-for-12 with a double and triple in the Cardinals’ three-game set with Detroit this week. For the month, he is hitting .392/.392/.686 with eight extra-base hits in 15 games.

Certainly there will be another dip in Rasmus’ performance, but so far, the 22-year-old rookie has shown he can make adjustments and bounce back. That should keep him in the lineup, and as a result, he leads all rookies in extra-base hits (23) and RBIs (26). His 53 hits tie him with Colorado’s Dexter Fowler for the most by a 2009 rookie, and his seven longballs earn him a share of the rookie lead with Baltimore’s Nolan Reimold.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In recent years, both Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn flirted with becoming the first major leaguer to strike out 200 times in a season. The Phillies slugger fell one whiff short of the mark in each of the last two summers, but Arizona’s Mark Reynolds broke through with 204 in 2008.

Major league hitters had been inching closer to the 200-K plateau for decades, and reaching it isn’t likely to stop the steady, ongoing climb. After all, Dunn fanned 195 times in 2004 to become the first major leaguer to post 190 strikeouts in a season, but Reynolds, Howard and Jack Cust all have surpassed Dunn’s record total the last two years.

It seems Reynolds has only just begun. With 87 whiffs in Arizona’s first 61 games, the Diamondbacks third baseman is on course to strike out 231 times this season.

Remarkably, Reynolds isn’t even the pacesetter. Texas first baseman Chris Davis, who recorded 17 homers and slugged .549 in half a season as a rookie in 2008, has fanned 88 times in 57 games. That was his strikeout total in 80 games a year ago. His 2009 whiff rate would result in 242 strikeouts.

Howard can’t compete with those numbers. He’s projected to finish with "just" 198 this season. Another first baseman, however, is on course to join Reynolds and Davis in surpassing 200 Ks. At his current pace, Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena would fan 204 times.

History shows power production and strikeouts go hand in hand, and the long-held stigma of striking out has one foot in the grave. Hitters, who face the challenge of balancing their power output and strikeout rate, are more willing than ever to strike out in order to hit the ball hard.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Although the Cubs may have one of the game’s better rotations, injuries to Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden opened the door to unheralded minor leaguer Randy Wells in early May. Heading into the 2009 season, hardly a soul could have predicted his arrival in Chicago, let alone his immediate success.

After all, the 26-year-old right-hander hadn’t excelled in two-plus seasons at Triple-A Iowa, allowing more than a hit an inning and too many home runs, but a slightly better performance in 2008 was a precursor to a terrific start there this spring. In five outings before his May 8 promotion, Wells was 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for Iowa.

The non-prospect has been even better for the Cubs, as he blanked Milwaukee and Houston in his first two big league starts. Wells has now worked five consecutive quality starts and has allowed a total of eight earned runs in six outings. Only a lack of run support and some shoddy bullpen work have kept the rookie from securing his first major league win.

Yes, Wells doesn’t have a win, but he does have a 1.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. In 38.2 innings, he’s given up just 31 hits and eight walks. He’s been touched for just one longball -- by Atlanta’s Garret Anderson -- and has recorded 31 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting just .221/.272/.279 against him, and the .550 OPS he has allowed ranks second for the lowest mark among all major league starters who have worked at least 25 innings this spring.

Lowest OPS Allowed among MLB Starters, 2009
(minimum 25 IP as starter)

Chris Carpenter, StL. . .442
Randy Wells, ChC. . . . .550
Dan Haren, Ari. . . . . . .562
Edwin Jackson, Det . . .575
Zach Greinke, KC. . . . .577

Nearly five weeks after Wells’ unanticipated arrival, Zambrano is back on the mound and Harden returns to the Cubs rotation Saturday after a stint on the disabled list for a back strain. Sean Marshall has struggled and Wells has taken his starting job.

That’s the immediate solution, but the question remains: Is Wells the real deal? Time will tell, but each time he takes the mound and succeeds, he makes his case as one of the biggest surprises of 2009. He may be one of those success stories that no one saw coming.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As impressively as the young Oakland starters have pitched of late, a case could be made that the most effective rookie hurler on the A’s staff is the guy who is saving games for them. While the budding rotation has been instrumental in the team’s current 8-2 surge, rookie right-hander Andrew Bailey has closed out four of those wins.

Bailey has made a smooth transition from starter to reliever over the last year. The 25-year-old rookie, who worked in both roles for Double-A Midland in 2008, has emerged as the A’s closer after opening the season with 8.1 scoreless innings in which he allowed just one hit. For the season, Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .155 against him.

American League rookies have totaled seven saves this season, and Bailey has five of them. He also has recorded a 0.91 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. Those 44 strikeouts rank first among all AL relievers.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Most established major leaguers who started poorly have turned things around by now, and that finally seemed to be the case a week ago for Phillies closer Brad Lidge.

The veteran right-hander gave up runs while collecting two of his first three saves in April, and then the blown saves began to accumulate. Through May 25, coming off blown save opportunities on consecutive nights against the Mets, Lidge was 0-2 and 8-for-12 in save chances, with a 9.15 ERA and .337 OBA. He also had allowed 12 walks in just 19.2 innings.

After struggling against the Phillies’ NL East rival in New York, Lidge converted five straight chances in five straight outings from May 26 through June 1. He allowed a single hit and a walk in 4.2 innings and struck out five. Lidge closed out games against Florida, Washington and San Diego -- three of them came in a sweep of the lowly Nats at the end of May -- but perhaps his week of success wasn’t indicative of a turnaround after all.

The five-game scoreless streak stalled with back-to-back blown saves against the Dodgers this weekend. On Friday, Lidge recorded two quick ninth-inning outs before the Dodgers rallied and stuck him with the “L” on a two-run double by Andre Ethier. The Los Angeles outfielder delivered again on Saturday, powering a two-out 12th-inning home run -- his second homer of the game -- after Rafael Furcal touched Lidge for a longball to tie the score in the ninth.

Saturday’s performance gave Lidge a major league-leading six blown saves in 2009. That’s after the hard-throwing right-hander was 41-for-41 a year ago in his first season with Philadelphia. His immediate success with his new team earned him a hefty three-year contract last July, but his conversion streak stalled at 47 straight saves on April 18 against the Padres. And not much has gone well from there. For the season, Lidge is now 0-3 with 7.27 ERA, .306 OBA and 13 saves in 19 chances.

Early in the season, Lidge admitted publicly that his fastball and slider weren’t what they were in 2008. He also was bothered by inflammation in his right knee for a couple weeks in late April and early May.

Since then, however, it was reported a few times in May that Lidge’s stuff was markedly better. It might have appeared that Lidge’s troubles were behind him with his impressive week at the end of the month, but that rosy outlook has been put on hold by the Dodgers.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Oakland Athletics are 21-30 through 51 games, which isn’t all that surprising. Growing pains were to be expected with the A’s rotation built around four young pitchers with just 28 big league starts between them going into the season. Oakland’s rookie hurlers have already started 30 games in 2009, easily the most rookie starts among all teams, and it’ll take time before they cash in on potential.

The sole veteran of the group coming out of spring training was 25-year-old Dallas Braden, with all of 24 major league starts and six victories. The promising trio of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Josh Outman was scheduled for on-the-job training on the big league roster.

There are signs that the kids are adjusting and learning. Braden has been the most consistent, recording quality starts in eight of his 11 outings. Left-hander Josh Outman has now worked five consecutive quality starts after pitching into the seventh inning of Oakland’s 5-3 win over the Chicago White Sox Wednesday night. And 21-year-old right-hander Trevor Cahill hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in six of his last seven times out.

Only southpaw Brett Anderson, the A’s other 21-year-old rookie, has continued to struggle, though he has a pair of quality outings among his last three starts. In those appearances against Tampa Bay and Seattle, Anderson collected his first two big league wins.

The A’s called on another of their top pitching prospects Tuesday night, with good results. Right-hander Vin Mazzaro, 22, blanked the White Sox through 6.2 innings for a 5-0 win in his major league debut. So, the A’s are now using four rookies in their rotation.

There will be ups and downs, but the numbers suggest the kids are starting to figure it out:

Oakland Starters, April & Since, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . April. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .May-June
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .W-L. . . .ERA. . . .OBA. . . . . . . . . W-L. . . . .ERA. . . . OBA
Dallas Braden. . . . . .3-2. . . . .2.10. . . .250. . . . . . . . . .1-3. . . . . 4.86 . . . . .305
Trevor Cahill. . . . . . 0-2. . . . .5.40. . . .270. . . . . . . . . .2-3. . . . . 3.79 . . . . .263
Josh Outman. . . . . .0-0. . . . .5.23. . . .279. . . . . . . . . .2-0. . . . . 2.49 . . . . .192
Brett Anderson. . . . 0-2. . . . .5.01. . . .264. . . . . . . . . .2-3. . . . . 6.38 . . . . .317

Braden’s post-April stats have been skewered by one mid-May outing in which he was roughed up for six earned runs in five innings. It’s the only time he’s failed to work a quality start since the start of May. Although the southpaw may have overachieved in April, he’s shown he can keep his team in games on a consistent basis.

Lately Cahill and Outman have shown that they can do the same. Anderson and Mazzero are huge talents, too, of course. A little success from them could make for an interesting second half in the AL West.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After a slow start to his tenure in Yankee pinstripes, Mark Teixeira delivered in May. He led all major leaguers with 13 home runs and 34 RBIs for the month, and he scored 25 runs in 28 games.

The player who ranked second in May homers and RBIs is a more compelling story. Twins catcher Joe Mauer missed all of April with a bad back, but returned on the first of May and stroked 11 home runs and drove in 32 runs over the next 31 days.

What makes Mauer’s run production compelling is that the left-handed hitter nearly matched his single-season high of 13 home runs in a single month. Mauer, who turned 26 in April, already has collected a batting title -- the first American League catcher to do so -- and he hit a major league-high .414 in May. As for his power, the Twins haven’t pushed the St. Paul native to develop a power stroke. It seems to be developing on its own, and Mauer may be on the verge of becoming a far more dangerous threat at the plate.

In May, Mauer ranked among the Twins’ top sluggers. His home-run total fell one short of the most for the month since the franchise moved to Minnesota in 1961. Harmon Killebrew powered 12 bombs in May 1964, and Mauer matched the 11 that Killebrew delivered in May 1961.

Mauer also flirted with Minnesota’s highest RBI total in any month. Killebrew also holds that mark with 37 in June 1969, followed by Mauer’s 32 in May and Kent Hrbek’s 31 in July 1984.

For the 2009 season, among players with at least 100 plate appearances, only San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez has hit homers at a faster rate than Mauer:

Fewest AB per HR, 2009
(minimum 100 PA)

Adrian Gonzalez, SD. . . . 8.71
Joe Mauer, Min. . . . . . .9.00
Albert Pujols, StL. . . . . 10.69
Carlos Pena, TB. . . . . . 10.94
Luke Scott, Bal . . . . . .11.00
Adam Dunn, Was. . . . . .11.13

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A second trip to the plate is a hitter’s chance to make adjustments to the pitches and pitch sequences he and his teammates saw over the opening innings of a game. The second time through the batting order is a key battleground for pitchers as well. What worked the first time may not work the second, as the following pitchers have learned over the first two months of the season.

Opponent Hitting Percentages, 1st & 2nd Time through Batting Order, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1st Time. . . . . . . . . 2nd Time
Ricky Romero, Tor. . . . . . .143/.167/.229. . . . . . .412/.444/.706
Dontrelle Willis, Det. . . . . .194/.286/.323. . . . . . .394/.417/.576
Brian Moehler, Hou . . . . . .273/.344/.309 . . . . . .389/.400/.630
Paul Maholm, Pit. . . . . . . .167/.222/.214. . . . . . .375/.432/.463

Carl Pavano, Cle . . . . . . . .235/.267/.353. . . . . . .373/.429/.587
John Lannan, Was. . . . . . .213/.292/.250. . . . . . .368/.442/.697
Vicente Padilla, Tex . . . . .145/.264/.210. . . . . . .355/.437/.435
David Purcey, Tor. . . . . . .194/.341/.333. . . . . . .351/.444/.595

Among this group, no one has been stingier in the first inning than Toronto rookie Ricky Romero, who has just returned from a three-week stay on the disabled list and a brief stint in the minors. With the Jays, he has limited hitters to one hit in 13 at-bats without a walk in the opening frame. The left-hander has succeeded until opposing hitters get another look at him. Then he has trouble recording outs and hitters show considerably more power.

The other pitcher in the group who has been especially effective getting his first three outs of a start is Romero’s teammate, David Purcey. Opponents are 2-for-17 against the right-hander in the first inning, which includes a two-run homer to the Royals’ Jose Guillen on April 27. Purcey allowed three home runs that day to earn a demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. He worked a quality start in his 2009 debut, but failed to work six innings in his next four outings. Getting through the batting order a second time with little damage was problematic.

Opposing hitters are batting .366 against Houston’s Brian Moehler after the first time through the lineup. That mark was even higher before the veteran right-hander scattered seven hits and allowed a single run in a complete-game victory over Pittsburgh Friday night.

There’s a pattern here. Lengthy outings aren’t common for these guys. When they’ve managed to survive the second time through the batting order, they usually have pitched well enough to post lower opponent hitting percentages the third time through the order. Not surprisingly, the sample size for the third time around is smaller.

It’s more difficult to make sense of those pitchers who have improved markedly the second time they have seen hitters in a game. There’s often more at play than solving the opponent. All pitchers have days when they don’t have a pitch working at the start of an outing, and they have to battle until they regain a feel for it. This scenario is more often likely to plague soft-tossers and inexperienced pitchers trying to establish themselves in the majors.

If we isolate the pitchers who show substantial improvement between the first and second time through the batting order in 2009, rookies and less-experienced hurlers are prominent on the list.

Opponent Hitting Percentages, 1st & 2nd Time through Batting Order, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1st Time. . . . . . . . . . 2nd Time
Matt Palmer, LAA. . . . . . . . .345/.449/.638 . . . . . . .098/.127/.098
Randy Wolf, LAD . . . . . . . . .244/.296/.467 . . . . . . .133/.212/.222
Josh Outman, Oak. . . . . . . .267/.304/.427 . . . . . . .148/.278/.311
Joba Chamberlain, NYY . . . .373/.427/.597. . . . . . . .185/.375/.370
Glen Perkins, Min . . . . . . . .406/.431/.609 . . . . . . .196/.274/.250

Roy Halladay, Tor. . . . . . . . .266/.303/.426 . . . . . . .198/.222/.260
Barry Zito, SF . . . . . . . . . . .247/.313/.479. . . . . . . .203/.321/.232
Kyle Davies, KC . . . . . . . . . .293/.393/.427. . . . . . . .207/.258/.366
Aaron Harang, Cin . . . . . . . .291/.315/.500. . . . . . . .210/.281/.358
Mark Buehrle, CWS . . . . . . .293/.338/.507. . . . . . . .211/.275/.282

Angels rookie Matt Palmer, who started the year in the minors and was recalled on April 23, has allowed 20 earned runs en route to a 5-0 record and 4.06 ERA. Fourteen of those runs have been scored in the first two innings. After he gets through the batting order the first time, the 30-year-old right-hander has held hitters to a .133 average. Whatever the reason for his improvement as the game goes on -- gaining command of his pitches, altering his approach to accommodate a pitch he lacks, or making adjustments to hitters -- Palmer becomes more difficult to solve.

Twins southpaw Glen Perkins has had a similar experience this spring, giving up 19 of his 28 earned runs in the first three frames. Since working eight innings in each of his first three starts of 2009, and allowing a total of four runs in them, early rallies against him have made for a string of rough outings before he went on the DL with an elbow injury on May 19. For the season, Perkins has limited hitters to a .190 average after the first time through the lineup, but his team has been unable to rebound from early deficits.

Staff aces Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle are pitchers who are more capable of compensating for a missing pitch or making adjustments from batter to batter.

There are a host of others who have shown moderate improvement the second time through the batting order this spring. When the difference between the first and second time through the lineup is less significant, it’s nearly impossible to know if it’s a random happening, a matter of gaining better command as the game goes on, or a pitcher reacting to how hitters approached him the first time up.

Perhaps it’s not important. Any improvement as the game goes on, for whatever reason, is a good sign. Managers will be more taken by a pitcher who can recover from early trouble than one who can’t escape it after hitters have faced him once in a game.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For hitters and pitchers, baseball is a constant battle of adjustments. What a hitter or pitcher learns about the other during their first showdown in a game can be of benefit the second time through the order.

By the time a starting pitcher has faced all nine batters on the opposing team, a hitter should have a sense what pitches are working for him and what he is likely to see his second trip to the plate.

It’s early in the season and the sample size is still rather small, but the Mets’ Carlos Beltran has gone 20-for-42 (.476) the second time he has seen a pitcher. That’s the highest average among major leaguers who have faced a pitcher twice in a game at least 25 times in 2009.

There are plenty of variables at play here, but Beltran’s numbers suggest he is processing what he sees in his opening at-bat, and maybe what he sees from the bench as well.

Carlos Beltran, 2009

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AB. . . . .Hitting Percentages
1st Time vs. Pitcher. . . . 89 . . . . . .303/.431/.483
2nd Time vs. Pitcher . . . 42 . . . . . .476/.532/.667
3rd Time vs. Pitcher. . . .34 . . . . . .382/.432/.618
4th Time vs. Pitcher. . . . 4. . . . . . .500/.600/1.250

Perhaps Beltran’s numbers drop off a bit the third time through the order because starters who hang around that long are often faring quite well -- just not so much when facing Beltran.

Among major leaguers who have faced a pitcher twice in a game at least 25 times in 2009, here are the batting leaders:

Highest Batting Average, 2nd Time Facing a Pitcher in a Game, 2009
(min 25 PAs)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1st Time. . . . . . . . . .2nd Time
Carlos Beltran, NYM. . . . . . . .303/.431/.483. . . . . . .476/.532/.667
Ryan Ludwick, StL. . . . . . . . .175/.238/.333. . . . . . .440/.462/.880
Luke Scott, Bal. . . . . . . . . . .279/.362/.475. . . . . . .440/.517/.840
Kevin Youkilis, Bos. . . . . . . . .365/.500/.683. . . . . . .433/.486/.767
Howie Kendrick, LAA. . . . . . .128/.167/.256. . . . . . .432/.488/.568

Joe Mauer, Min . . . . . . . . . .423/.516/.769. . . . . . .429/.400/.905
Skip Schumaker, StL . . . . . . .263/.313/.382. . . . . . .421/.436/.658
Nick Swisher, NYY . . . . . . . .138/.318/.322 . . . . . . .421/.455/.868
Mark Teixeira, NYY. . . . . . . .219/.336/.521. . . . . . .421/.511/.684
Ryan Theriot, ChC . . . . . . . .230/.287/.370. . . . . . .421/.465/.737

There’s not much we can learn here about Joe Mauer, who’s hitting .425 for the season since coming off the disabled list on May 1. He doesn’t seem to be wasting many trips to the plate at any point in a game.

The disparity between first and second plate appearances for Ryan Ludwick and Nick Swisher may have as much to do with generally not feeling completely comfortable the first time up as making adjustments the second time. Even if that’s the case, they sure don’t waste a game’s second opportunity to hit.

It’s impossible to know if these guys are making deliberate adjustments or even watching the opposing pitcher when they’re on the bench. The numbers suggest they’re paying attention, and most of them probably are. Regardless, whether they are making conscious adjustments or just doing what they always do, they are much more dangerous the second time around.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 3.73 team ERA that that ranks second only to the St. Louis Cardinals’ 3.61 mark. It’s the Dodgers who have made the most of their pitching staff’s stinginess, however, as they are the only big league club with a winning record when scoring two or fewer runs in a game.

The Dodgers are 4-3 when they have been unable to push across three runs. The first win was a 2-0 shutout of Houston on April 23, when Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton limited the Astros to four hits. Two others were back-to-back victories over division rival San Diego the first two days of May, when the Dodgers scored only three times but held the Padres to a single run.

Only two other teams have won more games when held to two runs or less -- the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners -- though both have double-digit losses in those situations. Still, they rank among the best teams in winning percentage when scoring fewer than three runs.

Highest Winning Percentage When Scoring Fewer than 3 Runs, 2009

Los Angeles Dodgers. . . . . .4- 3 (.571)
New York Mets. . . . . . . . . 3- 7 (.300)
San Francisco Giants. . . . . 5-13 (.278)
Seattle Mariners. . . . . . . . 5-15 (.250)
St. Louis Cardinals. . . . . . . 3- 9 (.250)
Milwaukee Brewers. . . . . . 3- 9 (.250)

Believe it or not, posting a .250 winning percentage is a noteworthy accomplishment. The major league-wide mark is just .142 (52-314), and nine teams have yet to win when scoring two or fewer runs in a game:

Chicago Cubs. . . . . . 0-16
Minnesota Twins. . . .0-13
Oakland Athletics. . . 0-12

Cleveland Indians. . . .0-11
Philadelphia Phillies. .0-11
Tampa Bay Rays . . . .0-10

Colorado Rockies. . . 0- 9
Texas Rangers. . . . . 0- 7
New York Yankees. . 0- 4

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday was quite a day for two prospects who made major league debuts.

Phillies outfield prospect John Mayberry Jr. drilled a three-run homer off Andy Pettitte in a 5-4 loss to the Yankees. The right-handed-hitting Mayberry was recalled Friday with the Phillies needing a DH and facing left-handers at Yankee Stadium.

Also Saturday, Twins pitching prospect Anthony Swarzak quieted a red-hot Milwaukee lineup for seven scoreless innings, allowing just five hits and two walks. Replacing injured starter Glen Perkins, Swarzak earned the “W” in a 6-2 victory over the Brewers.

Two other pitching prospects, Sean West of the Marlins and Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey, made their first major league starts of the season Saturday. West fared reasonably well against the defending AL champion Rays while Bailey was roughed by Cleveland.

Although Bailey was forced to use the return-trip portion of his flight from Louisville after the game, prospects will continue to get major league opportunities to fill in for injured or struggling players. The economic downturn and subsequent frugalness of MLB owners last winter forced dozens of major league veterans into retirement. And unproven players have been getting chances to assume big league jobs all spring.

As the seventh week of the season comes to a close, 114 rookies have pitched at least one-third of an inning in the majors. That number was 198 for the entire 2008 season and 205 the year before. If you take pitchers out of the equation, the number of 2009 rookies with at least one plate appearance is 72, compared to 190 a year ago and 157 in 2007. At its current pace, the 2009 total will easily surpass those of the last two years.

More will struggle than succeed, but the opportunities are there. It’s a good time to be a prospect in the high minors.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Twins slugger Justin Morneau is off to a terrific start. After going 3-for-5 with a triple and two RBIs in Friday night’s 11-3 romp over Milwaukee, the first baseman is batting .335/.417/.640 with 12 doubles, 12 home runs, 35 RBIs and a 1.057 OPS in 43 games.

In Friday’s win, Morneau, a left-handed hitter, collected three hits and two RBIs in four plate appearances against Brewers southpaws Manny Parra and R.J. Swindle. For the season, Morneau’s 25 hits versus lefties lead the major leagues, and he’s batting .410/.446/.705 with seven doubles and three home runs in 65 plate appearances against them.

A week ago, Morneau recorded a hit in five straight trips to the plate against left-handed pitching, all of them during New York’s recent four-game sweep of Minnesota at Yankee Stadium. The streak began Saturday with a home run off lefty reliever Phil Coke, and included two singles and two doubles against Andy Pettitte on Monday.

The Twins’ offensive leader missed out on securing 2009’s longest string of consecutive hits off southpaws when Coke fanned him late in Monday’s loss. Ian Kinsler of the Rangers and Cleveland’s Victor Martinez also have collected five straight hits versus lefties this season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

In the seventh inning and later this season, the Seattle Mariners have a 2.80 ERA that is the lowest in the majors. Believe it or not, much of the credit goes to the Seattle rotation.

While the bullpen has a respectable 3.57 ERA overall, the starters have allowed just one earned run in 18 innings from the seventh inning on. Their line over those 18 innings is 11 hits and three walks allowed with 16 strikeouts.

Seattle Starters after the Sixth Inning, 2009

Pitcher. . . . . . . . . . . IP. . . . . . .H. . . . . . .ER. . . . . .BB. . . . . . .K
Felix Hernandez. . . . .6.0. . . . . . 4. . . . . . . .0. . . . . . . 1. . . . . . . 5
Jarrod Washburn. . . .5.0. . . . . . 4. . . . . . . .0. . . . . . . 2. . . . . . . 6
Erik Bedard. . . . . . . .4.0. . . . . . 3. . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . 0. . . . . . . 5
Chris Jakubauskas. . . 2.0. . . . . . 0. . . . . . . .0. . . . . . . 0. . . . . . . 0
Carlos Silva. . . . . . . .1.0. . . . . . 0. . . . . . . .0. . . . . . . 0. . . . . . . 0

Erik Bedard has given up the sole earned run over four frames of work after the sixth inning. Felix Hernandez has pitched the most innings from the seventh on, and Jarrod Washburn has fanned six over his five frames.

Friday night’s starter is Jason Vargas. The M’s left-hander hasn’t allowed a run in 3.1 innings after the sixth, but he was in the bullpen for those 10 outs. He’s working his third straight start after making his 2009 debut as a reliever in early May. For the season, Vargas is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings. Two solo homers are the only runs he’s allowed.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Every baseball season produces its share of interesting stories, from cinderella teams to players who persevere against great odds. The Milwaukee Brewers have one in reliever Mark DiFelice, a 32-year-old right-hander who would be a rookie if he had spent a few less days on the major league roster in 2008.

DiFelice surfaced briefly in the Brewers bullpen last May, a month into his 11th minor league campaign, and he secured a spot on the 25-man roster this spring. The Pennsylvania native took a circuitous route to Milwaukee after enduring rotator-cuff surgery several years, which took 10 mph off his low-90s fastball.

In a recent web post, Jeff Passan, a terrific writer for Yahoo! Sports, tells how DiFelice met a pitching coach named Adolfo Navarro while playing winter ball for the Obregon Yaquis in Mexico before the 2006 season. Navarro offered to teach DeFelice the cutter, and the pitch has given the veteran minor leaguer a big league opportunity.

It’s generally the only pitch DiFelice throws, and it’s working. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA this spring. In 18.1 innings, he’s allowed just 11 hits and three walks while striking out 18. Hitters are batting .169/.206/.262 against him.

Most pitchers who throw a cutter, such as Toronto ace Roy Halladay and Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, use it as a power pitch. DiFelice’s offering is a steady 82 mph, though the movement is incredible.

Passan calls the pitch the “82-mph cotton ball that no one can solve.” In his feature, he provides an excellent description of how DiFelice throws the pitch:

“DiFelice grips the ball across the seams, like a four-seam fastball, and tilts it so his middle finger rests along the red stitching. He squeezes the ball with his middle finger, raises his index finger and throws it as he would a fastball. The result is confounding: The ball spins like a fastball and moves like a slider, and the optical illusion it plays on hitters allows him to get away with throwing an 82-mph pitch the batter knows is coming.”

In parts of two major league seasons, DiFelice has given up just seven walks and fanned 38 in 37.1 innings. Remarkably, hardly anyone has done anything with his cutter to this point, but that’s likely to change. Baseball is a game of adjustments, with hitters and pitchers constantly reacting to what’s happened before. It’s nearly impossible to survive with one pitch, especially one that’s always thrown at the same speed.

Maybe the last statement isn’t an absolute truth, but a myth of the game waiting to be disproved. After all, Rivera survives mostly throwing cutters, though it helps when you throw it in the low-to-mid 90s.

If you throw one pitch, though, is velocity really more important than movement? After all, the one pitch numerous hurlers have built a career around is the knuckleball. Deception kept guys like Hoyt Wilhelm, Phil Niekro and Tim Wakefield on the mound well into their 40s. Wilhelm, a Hall of Famer who didn’t reach the major leagues until he was 29, worked his last big league game two weeks before he turned 50. Niekro retired at 48 and also was enshrined in the Hall.

DiFelice is working on diversifying. He’s threatening to mix in a few curves and changeups, which sparks wonder as to what the radar reading on his change would be. Just maybe the 32-year-old right-hander won’t need those other pitches. Could he be throwing the new knuckleball, a deceptive pitch that can stand alone as a way to get hitters out? DiFelice will test that theory every time he takes the mound.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The Texas Rangers probably should be better than 11-6 at their home park, since they lead all American League clubs in batting (.308), home runs (30) and slugging (.547) before the hometown fans.

With a 20-14 overall record and a tentative grip on first place in the American League West, the Rangers will need all the homespun production they can muster this weekend, when they host the second-place Los Angeles Angels. There are two hitters in the Texas lineup who have been nearly unstoppable at home.

Highest Home Batting Average, 2009
(min. 50 AB)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Avg. . . . . .OPS
Miguel Cabrera, Det. . . . . .440. . . . . 1.271
Ian Kinsler, Tex. . . . . . . . .413. . . . . 1.268
Orlando Hudson, LAD. . . . .409. . . . . 1.152
Michael Young, Tex. . . . . .408. . . . . 1.074
Albert Pujols, StL . . . . . . .397. . . . . 1.345

Between them in 17 home games, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young have scored 32 runs. Kinsler has 15 extra-base hits among his 31 hits -- nine doubles, a triple and five homers -- and he’s driven in a team-leading 17 runs at home. Young has mostly been a singles hitter, but he’s scored 14 runs and has a .468 OBP.

In addition to the Rangers’ pair of .400 hitters at home, there are two .300 hitters in Andruw Jones (.343/.521/.686) and Elvis Andrus (.340/.380/.574). And nine Rangers are slugging better than .500 at home:

Ian Kinsler. . . . . . . . . . . .792 (leads team in R, 2B, HR, RBIs at home)
Andruw Jones . . . . . . . . .686 (12 BB, 12 R in 10 home games)
Michael Young. . . . . . . . .606 (14 R, five 2B, three HR in 17 home games)

Omar Vizquel. . . . . . . . . .583 (6-for-12 with a double)
Hank Blalock. . . . . . . . . .576 (.254-5-16 in 14 home contests)
Elvis Andrus. . . . . . . . . . .574 (two 2B, three 3B and HR at home)

Nelson Cruz . . . . . . . . . .541 (.295-4-16 in 17 home games)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia.. . .526 (three 2B, two HR in 12 games at home)
Marlon Byrd. . . . . . . . . .517 (seven 2B, 10 RBIs in 13 home contests)

Light-hitting first baseman Chris Davis ranks 10th on the team at .491. The second-year man has 10 homers and a .521 slugging mark on the season. Behind Davis is Josh Hamilton (.388), who has been out with a ribcage injury and just came off the disabled list Tuesday.

Friday’s series opener is a matchup of top-flight starters. Kevin Millwood (3-3, 2.92) pitches for the Rangers; Joe Saunders (5-1, 2.66) works for the Angels. It may be the best chance for a pitchers’ duel in Texas this weekend, though Rangers hitters will face a stiff pitching challenge in each of the three games.

On Saturday, John Lackey will make his 2009 debut after rehabbing an elbow ailment all spring. In Sunday’s finale, the Rangers will face Jered Weaver, who is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is a distant second in the AL ERA race, as he trails Royals ace Zach Greinke (6-1, 0.51) by nearly two earned runs per nine.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

When the Cincinnati Reds needed a big home run on Sunday, down by a run with two outs in the ninth, they sent right-hander Micah Owings to the plate as a pinch-hitter. St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin hadn’t allowed a run all season when Jerry Hairston Jr. and Owings teed off, though the Cardinals prevailed in the 10 th on a Colby Rasmus RBI double.

Owings, who is 6-for-18 (.333) at the plate this season, is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a homer as a pinch-hitter. In his two-plus major league campaigns, the 26-year-old right-hander is batting .346 (9-for-26) pinch-hitting for a teammate -- and he’s got a pair of home runs.

Only 15 players have hit more pinch homers than Owings since he reached the majors in April 2007. The most in this span is six by Matt Stairs, in just 64 at-bats. Three players have four, and another 11 have three.

Among the 53 players with at least two pinch homers since the start of the 2007 season, Owings ranks eighth with a .692 slugging percentage as a pinch-hitter. If you place him with the 15 players with three or more pinch homers to make a sweet 16, the Reds starter is fourth in slugging:

Highest SLG among PHs with Three Pinch Homers, 2007 Season & Since
(includes Owings with 2 Pinch Homers)

Pinch-Hitter. . . . . . .AB. . . . . . . .HR. . . . . . . .RBIs. . . . . . . SLG
Marcus Thames. . . . . 19. . . . . . . . 3. . . . . . . . .10. . . . . . . . .947
Cody Ross. . . . . . . . .23. . . . . . . . 4. . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . .913
Jason Giambi. . . . . . .21. . . . . . . . 3. . . . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . .810

Micah Owings. . . . . . 26. . . . . . . . 2. . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . .692
Geoff Jenkins. . . . . . 30. . . . . . . . 3. . . . . . . . . .9. . . . . . . . .667
Matt Stairs. . . . . . . . 64. . . . . . . . 6. . . . . . . . .17. . . . . . . . .641

With his bat, Owings is likely to make more pinch-hitting appearances in 2009 than the number of times he’ll be pinch-hit for. A reputation as a clutch pinch-hitter may start earning him intentional walks as well.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The good news is: the Reds bullpen is 8-for-8 in converting saves. Cincinnati is the only club without a blown save.

The bad new is: the Reds bullpen has worked just 82 innings this spring, and only six major league pens have pitched fewer frames.

That means Reds skipper Dusty Baker is following his career-long managerial tendency of sticking with his starters through high pitch counts. Wouldn’t you know, three Reds starters rank among the top 25 ERA qualifiers for most pitches thrown per game.

Pitches Thrown per Game by Reds Rotation
(number in parentheses is MLB rank among ERA qualifiers)

Starter. . . . . . . . . . . Age. . . . . .Pitches/G
Edinson Volquez. . . . . 25. . . . . . 103.8 (16)
Johnny Cueto. . . . . . .23. . . . . . .102.4 (23)
Aaron Harang. . . . . . .30. . . . . . .102.3 (24t)
Bronson Arroyo. . . . . 32. . . . . . . .91.2 (84)

Overworking the youngsters has to be a concern.

Edinson Volquez has seen a steady rise in his innings over the last four seasons, from 138.0 in 2005 to 154.0 in 2006. He worked 178.2 innings in ’07 and reached his single-season high of 196.0 in his first season with Baker. Volquez’s second-half numbers a year ago suggest he wore down. He did average 102.6 pitches a game, and only 14 ERA qualifiers averaged more in 2008.

Cueto, who turned 23 in February, made his pro debut in 2005, pitching 49.0 innings, mostly in rookie ball. He jumped to 138.0 in Class-A ball in 2006, and followed with 171 innings in the high minors in 2007 and 174.0 for Baker last season. He averaged a more sensible 97.9 pitches per game.

Keeping the Reds out of the National League Central race might be the best thing for Cincinnati’s top two starters. In 2003, when Baker rode a young Cubs rotation to the NLCS, three of his youngest starters ranked among the top eight in total pitches thrown, including playoffs.

Kerry Wood, who turned 26 that June, was the only major league hurler to surpass 4,000 pitches for the season (4,007). Fifth on the leader board was Mark Prior, who turned 23 that September. He was good for 3,770. Ranked eighth was Carlos Zambrano (3,722), and he was the youngest at 22. The only pitcher in the top 15 who was as young as one of these guys was Oakland’s Barry Zito.

Zambrano was the horse of the bunch, never breaking down and making his first trip to the disabled list last season. The DL has been a chronic habit for Wood and Prior since the Cubs lost the sixth and seventh games of the NLCS to the Marlins in 2003. And Zito, who worked more than 200 innings in six straight seasons with the A’s before signing with the Giants before the 2007 campaign, isn’t the same pitcher at age 30.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So, has Francisco Rodriguez already made a difference in the New York Mets bullpen this spring? The numbers suggest the answer is yes.

As a team, the Mets have converted 75 percent of their save chances in 2009, with K-Rod going 9-for-9, and 3-for-3 in one-run save opportunities. Pedro Feliciano, J.J. Putz and Sean Green have the team’s three blown saves, none of which were ninth-inning situations.

That 75-percent mark is tied for the fourth-highest save percentage in the majors. A year ago, the Mets’ save percentage was 59.7, which ranked 22nd in the major leagues. Four different relievers blew three or more saves for the 2008 Mets. Billy Wagner blew seven save opps after a strong start, and then he was lost to an early-August elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery.

Despite the three blown saves by guys not named K-Rod this spring, the relievers who work prior to the ninth inning have been getting the job done. The Mets have recorded 20 holds this season -- only the Cardinals with 21 have more -- and the New York pen also ranks second in the majors in bullpen ERA (2.87) and fourth in lowest OPS allowed by a team’s relievers (.667).

The Mets have been getting solid bullpen performances from relative unknown Brian Stokes (0.00 ERA and one unearned run allowed in 11 IP) and rookie Bobby Parnell (1.38 in 13 IP). Five relievers who have worked at least three innings this spring have ERAs lower than 2.50. And Putz (3.38) and Feliciano (3.75) have been effective.

Only Green (8.76) has an ERA higher than 4.00. A year ago, only four of the 11 relievers who worked at least 20 innings in relief managed to post a sub-4.00 ERA. The four lowest ERAs belonged to Wagner (2.30), Scott Schoeneweis (3.34), Stokes (3.51) and Joe Smith (3.55). Of those four, only Stokes is still on the roster.

Yes, K-Rod is making a difference, with his perfect save record, 1.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in 13.2 frames. But he shares the credit for the much-improved pen with Stokes, Feliciano and the other newcomers, Parnell and Putz.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With a homer in three of his last four games, Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols has secured the top spot on National League leader boards with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs.

Although Pujols managed just four RBIs with his three recent homers, the ribbies have come in bunches all season long. He delivered both a grand slam and a three-run shot in a St. Louis romp over Houston on April 11. He added a second slam in an 8-2 win over the Cubs on April 25. Pujols has recorded multiple RBIs in eight games, nearly a third of his 26 appearances in 2009.

There’s another telling stat about the game’s best hitter: Pujols has more home runs than strikeouts this season. In 118 plate appearances, he has fanned just nine times.

Pujols’ strikeout rate is the seventh-lowest in the majors among players with 100 plate appearances. He’s never struck out 100 times in eight major league campaigns -- a remarkable feat for today’s sluggers -- and he’s averaged just 56 whiffs a year over the last five seasons.

With 10 home runs in 2009, Pujols’ home-run rate of one for every 9.5 at-bats ranks second only to Tampa Bay first baseman Carlos Pena (9.18). The St. Louis star also is generating one RBI in every 3.17 at-bats; only Evan Longoria of the Rays (3.06) can top that.

By the way, the only other major leaguer who has more home runs than strikeouts this season is another Ray, Shawn Riggans. Tampa Bay's backup catcher appeared in one game and homered before going on the disabled list with a sore throwing shoulder early in the season. He managed to avoid striking out in four trips to the plate.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford tied a modern-day major league record Sunday afternoon, when he stole his sixth base of the day in the eighth inning of the Rays' 5-3 win over Boston. The Tropicana Field crowd knew it before Crawford, as a message on the scoreboard immediately acknowledged the feat.

Despite a substantial climb in the decibel level at Tropicana Field, the Rays left fielder didn''t realize he had become only the fourth player since 1901 to steal as many bags in a single game until after his workday on the field was done.

"I wish I had known during the game," said Crawford, who had swiped second base in the eighth to tie the mark but didn't make a move for third.

"I probably would have broken it if I knew. I’d have definitely tried,” he added. “I didn’t even try. I don’t know if that will ever happen again."

One of the three other modern-era players with six steals in a game is Eddie Collins, the Hall of Fame second baseman who accomplished the feat twice in 1912. The other two are Otis Nixon and Eric Young, who did it in 1991 and 1996, respectively, and Young also had as many as five in a 2000 contest. He and Colorado rookie Dexter Fowler, who stole five bases in a 12-7 win over San Diego a week ago, are two of only nine players with five steals in a game over the last two decades.

Five Stolen Bases in a Game, 1989-2009
(doesn't include 6-steal performances)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Date. . . . . . . . . . . . .Opp
Dexter Fowler, Col. . . . . . 4/27/09. . . . . . . . . . . .SD
Willy Taveras, Col . . . . . . .6/14/08. . . . . . . . . . . CWS
Ryan Freel, Cin. . . . . . . . .7/29/05. . . . . . . . . . . LAD
Scarborough Green, Tex. . 9/28/00. . . . . . . . . . . Sea
Kenny Lofton, Cle. . . . . . .9/03/00. . . . . . . . . . . .Bal

Eric Young, ChC. . . . . . . .5/14/00. . . . . . . . . . . .Mon
Damian Jackson, SD. . . . . 6/28/99. . . . . . . . . . . .Col
Alex Cole, Cle. . . . . . . . . 5/03/92. . . . . . . . . . . .Cal
Alex Cole, Cle. . . . . . . . . 8/01/90. . . . . . . . . . . .KC
Rickey Henderson, Oak. . .7/29/89. . . . . . . . . . . Sea

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Although the American League Central is a jumbled mess of flawed teams, the Kansas City Royals have been a pleasant surprise. They have averaged 98 losses a year over the last five seasons, but their winning percentage has been heading in the right direction since losing 106 games in 2005.

Run production hasn’t come easy in these dark years. That hasn’t changed much this spring, but the success of the pitching staff has taken a significant spike upward this April.

Royals Pitching, 2005-2008
(AL rank in parentheses)

Year. . . . Team ERA . . . . . . . Starter ERA
2005. . . . .5.49 (14). . . . . . . . . . 6.00 (14)
2006. . . . .5.65 (14). . . . . . . . . . 5.85 (14)
2007. . . . .4.48 (7). . . . . . . . . . .4.88 (11)
2008. . . . .4.48 (10). . . . . . . . . .4.62 (10)
2009. . . . .3.34 (1). . . . . . . . . . .3.20 (1)

Yes, the Royals lead the American League in both categories this spring. In fact, those are major league-leading statistics.

Zack Greinke has blossomed into a legitimate ace, winning all four of his starts and allowing only a single unearned run. Gil Meche is just 1-1, but he’s worked three quality starts in four outings and has a 2.63 ERA and a 25-4 strikeout-walk ratio. Greinke and Meche give the Royals a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Also providing a big lift is Brian Bannister, who struggled in camp and started the season with Triple-A Omaha. In two starts since returning to the Royals on April 21, the right-hander has allowed a total of a single run en route to wins over Toronto and Cleveland.

Kyle Davies had started the season with three solid outings before getting roughed up by Detroit on Saturday, and Sidney Ponson has been spotty, but the two have kept the Royals in more games than what has been the norm from the back end of the rotation.

As for the Royals’ early success, it also helps that the bullpen has been much better. The quartet of Joakim Soria, Jamey Wright, Juan Cruz and Robinson Tejeda has converted solid starts into victories. As a group, they’ve allowed just five earned runs over 29 innings.

There’s a long way to go, but in a less than inspiring AL Central, the Royals’ steady improvement in recent years may mean good things in 2009.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sporting News contributor Gerry Fraley, who covered the Texas Rangers for the STATS Scouting Notebook back in the day, presented some interesting research last week.

Fraley’s work suggests that the likes of the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays may be in serious trouble following slow starts this spring. Since the advent of the wild card at the start of the 1995 season, 161 big league clubs have had losing records through 10 games. Among those 161 teams, Fraley discovered only 21 of them secured playoff berths.

Those are staggering numbers. Perhaps a look at those 21 teams will shed some light on the significance of a slow start.

Postseason Teams with Losing Records through 10 Games, since 1995

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thru 10. . . .Record
1995 Reds. . . . . . . . . . 2-8. . . . . . . 85- 59
1996 Braves. . . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . . . 96- 66
1996 Dodgers. . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . . . 90- 72
1999 Diamondbacks. . . .4-6. . . . . . 100- 62
2000 Athletics. . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . . 91- 70
2000 Mets. . . . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . . . 94- 68
2000 Giants. . . . . . . . . 3-7. . . . . . . 97- 65

2001 Diamondbacks. . . .4-6. . . . . . .92- 70
2001 Braves. . . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . . .88- 74
2001 Athletics. . . . . . . 2-8. . . . . .102- 60
2002 Angels. . . . . . . . . 3-7. . . . . . 99- 63
2003 Twins. . . . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . .90- 72
2003 Braves. . . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . .101- 61
2003 Marlins. . . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . .91- 71

2004 Cardinals. . . . . . .4-6. . . . . .105- 57
2005 Yankees. . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . 95- 67
2006 Padres. . . . . . . . 3-7. . . . . . 88- 74
2007 Cubs. . . . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . .85- 77
2007 Phillies. . . . . . . .2-8. . . . . . .89- 73
2008 Dodgers. . . . . . . 4-6. . . . . . 84- 78
2008 Phillies. . . . . . . .4-6. . . . . . .92- 70

Surprisingly, four of those 21 clubs still won 100 games despite struggling in the early going. The 2004 Cardinals were the winningest team among the group, with 105 victories, but more noteworthy were the 2001 A’s. Oakland lost eight of its first 10 games that spring, but then went 100-52 the rest of the way.

You may have noticed that the reigning World Series champions make the list. Yes, the 2008 Phillies started 4-6, but went on to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the Fall Classic.

In fact, seven of these teams reached the World Series during this 14-year span. Four of them, including last year’s Phillies, were on the field to record the last out and celebrate a World Series title. All four have won in the last eight years, as the 2001 Diamondbacks, 2002 Angels and 2003 Marlins accomplished the feat in successive seasons.

Three other clubs -- the 1996 Braves, 2000 Mets and 2004 Cardinals -- lost out on a championship in the final series of the season. In an added twist, the 2004 Cardinals were the only 100-win team in the group to play in the Fall Classic. The other three -- the 1999 Diamondbacks, 2000 Mets and 2003 Braves -- didn’t follow up on 100-win campaigns with a World Series appearance. So, 10 of the 21 teams either won 100 games or played in the World Series.

Obviously not all teams below .500 after 10 games are alike. Many of them were destined to post losing records, and did so right from the start.

The teams on the above list clearly were loaded with talent. If the talent is there, the lesson is there’s still plenty of time for it to surface. The catch, though, even for a talented team, is to not let a slow start snowball. That’s a lesson learned first-hand by last year’s Detroit Tigers.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In his first-ever outing against his former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Giants lefty Randy Johnson was perfect through four innings and took a no-hitter into the seventh inning en route to career win No. 296.

When D-Backs shortstop Augie Ojeda doubled to lead off the seventh, it ended Johnson’s chance at becoming the oldest pitcher in major league history to pitch a no-no. Despite the failed bid, the 45-year-old veteran already is one of just four hurlers to work a no-hitter in his 40s.

No-Hitters by Pitchers Age 40 or Older, All-Time

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Date/Opponent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Age
Nolan Ryan. . . . . . . .5/01/1991 vs. Tor. . . . . . . . . . . 44 years, 90 days
Nolan Ryan. . . . . . . .6/11/1990 at Oak. . . . . . . . . . . .43 years, 131 days
Cy Young. . . . . . . . .6/30/1908 at NYY. . . . . . . . . . . .41 years, 93 days
Randy Johnson. . . . .5/18/2004 at Atl. . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years, 251 days
Warren Spahn. . . . . 4/28/1961 vs. SF. . . . . . . . . . . . .40 years, 5 days

Hall of Famer Cy Young was the oldest major leaguer to throw a no-no for more than 80 years, but it took Nolan Ryan less than 11 months to eclipse his own mark after he no-hit Oakland and struck out 14 A’s on June 11, 1990.

Interestingly, roughly seven weeks before Ryan became the oldest pitcher to toss a no-hitter, he worked the 12th one-hitter of his career on April 26, 1990, tying Bob Feller for the most all time. Ryan would throw two more no-hitters after that 16-strikeout performance against the White Sox, but he never surpassed Feller’s mark for one-hitters.

Ryan came close to becoming the oldest pitcher with a no-hitter almost exactly a year prior to his final one-hit performance -- on April 23, 1989. Facing the Texas Rangers, he lost a no-hit bid when Nelson Liriano tripled off the hard-throwing right-hander with one out in the ninth inning. Ryan had to settle for his 10th one-hitter, and he worked his 11th in Seattle that June. No one can say Ryan was just sticking around in his 40s.

Johnson isn’t the only 40-something to flirt with a no-no this season. On Wednesday, 42-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield was five outs away from the first no-hitter of his career in Oakland when Kurt Suzuki ended his chance to become the second-oldest pitcher to accomplish the feat.

Wakefield’s outing isn’t the only time in recent memory that a Red Sox hurler in his 40s was positioned to join this elite group. On June 7, 2007, also in Oakland, 40-year-old Curt Schilling was one out away from his first career no-no with Shannon Stewart at the plate. Schilling shook off his catcher, Jason Varitek, to throw a fastball instead of a slider. Stewart lined the pitch into right field for the A’s only hit of the game.

“I was sure he was taking, and Tek was sure he was swinging,” Schilling said after the game. “And I was wrong.” The right-hander said he had shaken off 5-10 pitches called by Varitek that day, adding “it was one too many.”

Remarkably, it was not the first time a Boston pitcher shook off Varitek and lost a no-hitter in the ninth inning. Facing Tampa Bay on Aug. 29, 2000, Pedro Martinez opted for a fastball instead of the curveball called by Varitek, and Devil Rays catcher John Flaherty singled for his team’s only hit. Martinez was all of 28 at the time.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It was quite a day for a few of the major league teams that have been the biggest surprises of the new season. The San Diego Padres maintained a share of the National League West lead by roughing up Phillies closer Brad Lidge for four ninth-inning runs. They trailed by a run going into the final frame before ending Lidge’s streak of converting 47 consecutive save changes and claiming an 8-5 win.

The Kansas City Royals stayed atop the American League Central after Zack Greinke tossed his first career shutout in a 2-0 victory over the Texas Rangers. Going into the contest, the Rangers were averaging a major league-high 5.56 runs per game, but Greinke worked his third scoreless outing of 2009.

Pitching has been critical to this spring’s surprise teams. Each of the five biggest surprises in the early going have posted one of the top six team ERAs, after ranking in the lower half of the major leagues in ERA last season.

Team ERA & Starter ERA for MLB’s Surprise Teams, 2008 vs. 2009
(through games of 4/17, MLB rank in parentheses)

. . . . . . . . . . . .2008 ERA. . . . .2009 ERA. . . . . 2008 Starters. . . . 2009 Starters
Pittsburgh. . . . . .5.08 (28). . . . . . 2.90 (1). . . . . . . .5.36 (28). . . . . . . 2.95 (2)
Florida. . . . . . . . 4.43 (19). . . . . . 2.97 (2). . . . . . . .4.66 (22). . . . . . . 3.09 (4t)
Seattle. . . . . . . .4.73 (25). . . . . . .3.01 (3). . . . . . . .5.07 (26). . . . . . . 3.22 (7)
Kansas City. . . . . 4.48 (22). . . . . . .3.24 (5). . . . . . . 4.62 (21). . . . . . . .3.00 (3)
San Diego. . . . . . 4.41 (18). . . . . . .3.67 (6). . . . . . . 4.38 (17). . . . . . . 4.60 (14)

The biggest surprise has to be the 10-1 Marlins, who are off to the best start in franchise history after claming their 10th win of the new season Saturday night. Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and rookie Chris Volstad had worked quality starts in all six of their outings before Johnson allowed six first-inning runs to the Nationals on Saturday. The Marlins rebounded to tie the game with three runs in the ninth, and won 9-6 in 11 innings when Jeremy Hermida hit his second homer of the game with two men aboard.

The Marlins also have been scoring with reckless abandon. They were averaging 6.10 runs per game before Saturday’s come-from-behind victory, the most in the National League. Also to the Marlins’ credit, they have been at least an average team defensively after finishing above only Washington and Texas in fielding percentage in 2008.

So far, the 6-5 Pirates are scoring nearly a half-run less per game in 2009 than they did a year ago, but this spring they are leading the majors in team ERA and quality starts. The Pirates recorded their eighth in 11 games Saturday when Ian Snell and two relievers combined on a 10-0 blanking of the Atlanta Braves.

It was the second time in less than 24 hours that the Pirates had shut out the Braves, thanks to Paul Maholm and two other Pittsburgh relievers. Three pitchers in the pen have yet to give up a run -- Matt Capps, John Grabow and Craig Hansen -- and Zach Duke (0.59 ERA) and Maholm (0.87 ERA) have allowed a total of three earned runs in five starts. A little more scoring by the Pirates would go a long way.

The 7-4 Royals remain second in the majors in team ERA after Greinke’s Saturday night shutout. They have quite a 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation with Greinke and Gil Meche, who has a 2.25 ERA in his first three outings of 2009. Plus, Kyle Davies has emerged as a solid starter in the early going. In two turns, he’s posted a 2.13 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. So far, none of the three has been saddled with a loss in eight starts, and the Royals also have three relievers who have yet to allow a run: Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright and Robinson Tejeda.

Going into the weekend, the 8-4 Mariners had the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League (2.56), and the starters haven’t been too shabby either. Lefty Erik Bedard is fully healthy after a 2008 season shortened by a shoulder ailment, and he has worked three quality starts and allowed just four earned runs. He has a 1.86 ERA and has recorded just three walks and 23 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, though he lost a 2-0 decision to the Tigers on Saturday night. Another lefty, Jarrod Washburn, is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA after suffering through arguably his worst big league season a year ago (5-14, 4.69 ERA). The M’s also have budding ace Felix Hernandez, who is 2-0, though with a heftier 4.26 ERA.

The bullpen of the 9-3 Padres had been even better than Seattle’s, posting a 2.04 ERA in 11 games before allowing three runs over four frames to the World Series champion Phillies Saturday night. The rotation hasn’t been as good. Only two of the five starters have ERAs lower than 4.00. They would be ace Jake Peavy (2-1, 3.98 ERA) and newcomer Shawn Hill (1-0, 3.60). The big difference for the Padres, however, has been run production. They are averaging exactly five runs per games, compared to a major league-low 3.93 a game in 2008.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two highly touted five-tool guys are struggling to make contact this spring. One is Florida rookie Cameron Maybin, who is off to a 6-for-25 start (.240) with nine strikeouts and a single extra-base hit -- a double.

The Marlins did the right thing in not rushing him a year ago, sending him to Double-A Carolina after he was acquired in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis blockbuster in December 2007. Maybin hit .277/.375/.456 in Double-A ball, with 15 doubles, 13 homers and 124 strikeouts in 108 games. Not exactly overwhelming numbers that suggest the 22-year-old prospect was ready to stick in the majors this spring, but he went 16-for-32 with a pair of doubles in eight September contests with the Marlins.

Twins center fielder Carlos Gomez, the key pickup in Minnesota’s Johan Santana deal with the Mets in February 2008, has just three hits in 26 at-bats (.115). He also has nine strikeouts and a single walk, en route to the seventh-lowest OPS among big league regulars (.379).

Gomez did make the Opening Day roster last spring, but he batted .258/.296/.360 with just 25 walks and 142 whiffs in 153 games. Remarkably, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire used the 23-year-old prospect at the top of the order in 90 games, during which Gomez posted a .281 OBP and struck out 97 times. In parts of three big league seasons totaling 219 games, he is batting .249/.290/.346, and this writer is beginning to wonder if this free-swinger will ever develop into a productive major leaguer.

Neither Maybin nor Gomez has logged much Triple-A time, but both would benefit from the experience. In fact, Maybin hasn’t played in a Triple-A contest, and both youngsters have a ways to go to convert their impressive tools into useful skills. Yet, it isn’t likely that either is going anywhere.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The passing of Mark Fidrych yesterday at the age of 54 was a reminder of a bygone era. Baseball always had its eccentrics, its flakes, lovable characters who contributed lore beyond the numbers. Over the last half-century, the game has given us the likes of Vic Power, Jimmy Piersall, Dock Ellis, Bill Lee and Fidrych.

Today there is so much at stake financially to risk being anything but all business as a baseball player. The incidents that might show character flaws and quirks seem to be limited to DUIs and occasional behavior that cries out for anger management. Fidrych surfaced at a different time, one of the last of a host of colorful characters in the game.

There was Power, the flamboyant first baseman who was the master of blowing super-sized bubbles with his gum while fielding one-handed -- a common practice today, but one that drove the game’s fundamentalists crazy in the 1950s and ’60. Power was as fascinating off the field as he was on it.

A player of color from Puerto Rico, where racism was far less overt, Power dated white women and refused to be confined by the prejudice he faced in the United States. He was known to be colorblind in using whites-only restrooms in the South. Once a waitress informed him that her restaurant didn’t serve Negroes, to which Power replied, “That’s okay, I don’t eat Negroes. I just want some rice and beans.” He was to be the first black Yankee in the early 1950s, but he didn’t fit the franchise’s staid personality and failed to reach the majors until 1954 with the Kansas City A’s.

Piersall, who poignantly documented his battle with mental illness in the book Fear Strikes Out -- at a time such ills were kept in the closet -- also had a sense of humor. When he hit the 100th home run of his career, Piersall ran the bases backwards. Afterwards he said, “That way I can see where I’ve been. I always know where I’m going.”

The 1960s gave us Ellis and Lee. Ellis wore curlers in his hair during pregame warmups, a practice that infuriated traditionalists long before Manny’s dreadlocks. Ellis claimed he threw his 1970 no-hitter against San Diego on LSD, thinking he wasn’t going to pitch that day. Four years later, upset at the way the Cincinnati Reds had spoken about his Pittsburgh teammates, he decided to hit as many Reds as possible to open a May start. Ellis was taken out of the game after hitting Pete Rose, Joe Morgan and Dan Dreissen, throwing two pitches behind Tony Perez’s head and two more at Johnny Bench.

Lee earned the nickname Spaceman for his eccentric ways and colorful quotes. He occasionally threw a high, lofting blooper pitch to mess with hitters’ timing, though one went for a Tony Perez home run in Boston’s Game 7 loss to the Reds in the 1975 World Series. During his years with the Red Sox, he nicknamed manager Don Zimmer “the gerbil,” an insult he used widely in public. Lee was a free spirit who often alienated himself from teammates and especially managers. When asked about the age-old strife between managers and pitchers, Lee responded that “most of the managers are lifetime .220 hitters.” His response to mandatory drug testing in baseball? "I said I believed in drug testing a long time ago. All through the ‘60s I tested everything."

Fidrych, of course, was known for grooming the mound on his knees, exuberantly recognizing teammates who made fine fielding plays behind him and talking to baseballs. The lanky right-hander with floppy curls, which earned him the Sesame Street-induced nickname “Big Bird,” credited baseballs for having a life of their own. Sometimes when he gave up a hit, he returned the ball to the umpire and asked for another, explaining that it still had hits left in it.

Players didn’t see Fidrych as a contrived act. He was recognized for being as genuine and sincere as anyone in the game -- one of the most likable guys around. When he burst onto the scene in 1976, going 19-9 and winning Rookie of the Year honors, he also became a fan favorite who filled baseball parks across the country.

There may be as many Fidrych stories as baseball players. Tony Oliva, one of the game’s great pure hitters in the 1960s, has his. After eight productive seasons with the Twins from 1964 through 1971, which seemed to put him on course for the Hall of Fame, Oliva suffered a devastating knee injury in ’71. He was never the same after that, though he played for parts of five more seasons.

In his final big league campaign in 1976, when Oliva played part-time and batted only .211 in 123 at-bats, he collected one last four-hit game on July 20. On the mound that day was Fidrych, the 21-year-old phenom who led the majors with a 2.34 ERA that summer and was by then garnering national attention.

Against the Twins, Fidrych scattered 10 hits and went the distance for an 8-3 victory, improving to 11-2, but Oliva stroked four singles and hit a bullet against him the first time he came to the plate. Suddenly Big Bird was on his way to first base, which initially startled the veteran. Oliva soon discovered that the eccentric rookie didn’t limit his on-field praise to teammates.

“He came over and shook my hand,” Oliva recalled with a laugh during a conversation with this writer in 2006. “’I have to learn how to pitch to you,’ he said. He surprised me, but he was a nice, young man.”

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tommy John surgery often sidelines a pitcher for 18 months, but Florida right-hander Josh Johnson returned from the procedure in a mere 11 months last July. Not only that, he went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA for the Marlins, recorded his first major league complete game and pitched 10 quality starts in 14 outings.

The 25-year-old Johnson has been even better this spring, at a time most of his Tommy John brethren would have been focusing on simply making their first post-surgery appearance. In two starts, he’s allowed just a single run en route to victories over Washington and the Mets.

On Sunday, Johnson went the distance and bested Mets ace Johan Santana in a 2-1 pitchers duel. Johnson finally allowed his first run of the new season in the ninth, but when he retired Ryan Church for the final out, he had held New York to just five hits and fanned seven Mets. For the season, he’s struck out 15 and walked just one in 15.2 innings.

Johnson’s start suggests he’s returning to the rookie form that generated a 12-7 record and 3.10 ERA in 2006 -- when he was 22 years old. One improvement he’s made since then involves dumping a few miles-per-hour off his slider this spring. He’s now throwing the pitch in the low 80s instead of the high 80s, and it’s made his mid-90s four-seamer all the more devastating.

The National League has a host of terrific young pitching talent, including Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, World Series MVP Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and the youngest starter in the league, Clayton Kershaw. After missing a year to have his elbow rebuilt, Johnson looks poised to join the league’s young elite.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The post-Trevor Hoffman era began in San Diego Tuesday night, when Heath Bell struck out the side in the ninth inning to nail down a 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. It was an impressive start for Bell, who had picked up just two saves in his first five big league seasons.

Hoffman had been closing out games for the Padres since August 1993, and during his tenure as the ninth-inning guy, he recorded 552 of San Diego’s 641 saves. Only the late Rod Beck, who was 20-for-20 in saves with Hoffman injured in 2003, had more than six for the Padres during this span.

Bell’s number the last two seasons have looked closer-worthy, though there is reason for concern. The 31-year-old right-hander has been a better first-half pitcher over his career, and his dropoff during the second half of 2008 was quite pronounced.

Heath Bell, 1st Half vs. 2nd Half, 2006-2008

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .IP. . . . . . . . . . . .ERA. . . . . . . . . . . OBA. . . . . . . . . . . .OSLG
2006
First Half. . . . . . . 22.0. . . . . . . . . . . 3.68. . . . . . . . . . . .344. . . . . . . . . . . . .478
Second Half . . . . .15.0. . . . . . . . . . . 7.20. . . . . . . . . . . .313. . . . . . . . . . . . .516

2007
First Half. . . . . . . 50.2. . . . . . . . .. . .1.78. . . . . . . . . . . .179 . . . . . . . . . . . . .243
Second Half . . . . .43.0. . . . . . . . . . . 2.30. . . . . . . . . . . .191 . . . . . . . . . . . . .250

2008
First Half. . . . . . . 50.1. . . . . . . . . . .2.15. . . . . . . . . . . .209. . . . . . . . . . . . . .291
Second Half . . . . .27.2. . . . . . . . . . .6.18. . . . . . . . . . . .264 . . . . . . . . . . . . .415

It’s hard to quibble with Bell’s second-half performance in 2007, when he posted a 2.02 ERA and .185 OBA over 93.2 innings. It’s those 93.2 innings, though, that may have led to the substantial dropoff down the stretch last season.

Bell made 81 appearances in 2007. Only five pitchers had more, but no one matched his innings total in relief. The reliever may have paid a price down the stretch last season for his 2007 workload, and we’ll find out this summer if second-half performance is an ongoing concern or a blip caused by excessive use two seasons ago.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It may not feel like it in the northern part of the country, but Monday was Opening Day. The games have begun, even though in this writer’s neck of the woods, temperatures have been in the 30s and snow has dusted parts of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan in the last 24 hours. The televised games were a pleasant reminder that spring will come and stay one day.

Derek Lowe kicked off the season in fine style on Sunday. After joining the Atlanta Braves as a free agent over the winter, the veteran right-hander debuted with a masterful eight innings for a 4-1 victory.

Monday, on the other hand, was a big day for hitters. There were eight home runs in Arizona’s 9-8 win over Colorado, which wasn't played in Denver. Tony Clark and Felipe Lopez each homered from both sides of the plate for the Diamondbacks, the first time teammates had executed the feat since Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams did it for the Yankees in April 2000.

Light-hitting Emilio Bonifacio, who the Marlins acquired in November, hit his first major league homer in Florida’s 12-6 win over Washington Monday. It was one to remember, as he lined a pitch over the head of Nationals outfielder Lastings Milledge, who was playing extremely shallow in center, and Bonifacio wheeled around the bases for an inside-the-park home run.

Bonifacio’s two-run homer, which overshadowed a grand slam by teammate Hanley Ramirez, was the first Opening Day inside-the-parker in 41 years. The last player to do it on the first day of the season? How about Carl Yastrzemski for the Red Sox in 1968. When Bonifacio was made aware of that fact, the 23-year-old infielder admitted he hadn’t heard of the Hall of Famer.

Rookie of the Year candidate Travis Snider doubled and homered in Toronto’s lopsided 12-5 victory over Detroit. At least a few Blue Jays fans were a bit too celebratory, as two balls were rifled from the stands and landed in the vicinity of Tigers left fielder Josh Anderson, sparking the chief of the umpiring crew, Ed Montague, to wave both teams into the dugout for nine minutes in the bottom of the eighth inning.

Another strong candidate for Rookie honors, Atlanta’s Jordan Schafer, hit a home run in his first major league at-bat Sunday night. The 22-year-old prospect became the fourth player in franchise history to find the seats in his first plate appearance.

For the 50th time in his career, Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs opened a game with a longball. He started the scoring in Chicago’s 4-2 win over Houston Monday night. In his return to Seattle, Ken Griffey Jr. tied a major league record held by Hall of Famer Frank Robinson with his eighth Opening Day home run. Griffey's last Opening Day bomb came 10 years ago in his final season with Seattle. Baltimore shortstop Cesar Izturis, who hit one homer in 135 games last season and went homerless in 2007, connected on a two-run shot in the Orioles’ opener. His first (and only?) of 2009 came off Yankees reliever Phil Coke after the O’s had ripped new Yanks ace CC Sabathia for six runs in 4.1 innings. Baltimore defeated New York, 10-5.

It wasn’t all about hitting Monday. The Mets’ Johan Santana reminded everyone why he’s always a threat to win another Cy Young Award in New York’s 2-1 victory over Cincinnati. Budding ace Felix Hernandez, who turns 23 on Wednesday, showed why he’s likely to win one in the not-too-distant future by shutting down Minnesota in Seattle’s 6-1 win. Angels southpaw Joe Saunders blanked the A’s for 6.2 innings in place of the injured John Lackey, and Kevin Millwood was terrific for a Texas club that won’t get enough outings like his in 2009.

Still, Opening Day was a power binge that generated 30 home runs in the 11 games played on Monday. The ball was flying out as if it was the dead of summer. On the first full day of baseball, big league hitters didn’t need warm weather, but most of the rest of us could use a little right about now.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two new ballparks debut in New York tonight, with the Cubs making the first appearance as the visiting team at the new Yankee Stadium and the Mets hosting the Red Sox at Citi Field. Opening Day is just around the corner, and the new digs will be home to two of the game’s premier closers.

Former Angel Francisco Rodriguez will debut a new uniform for Citi Field’s initiation on Friday. He joined the Mets after setting the single-season record with 62 saves last season. The Yankees, of course, have Mariano Rivera, who ranks second all time in saves behind Trevor Hoffman with 482. The 39-year-old Rivera was as dominant as ever in 2008, saving 40 games and posting a 1.40 ERA.

Not all saves are alike, however, as there’s a big difference protecting a one-run lead compared to a three-run margin. In light of Rodriguez’s record-setting save total last season, it’s not exactly surprising that he also posted a major league high of 23 one-run saves. Next on the leader board were Rivera and Minnesota’s Joe Nathan, both with 17.

Rivera converted all 17 of his one-run save opportunities. Among closers with at least 10 one-run save chances, Rivera was one of only two who were perfect in those situations. Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge was the other.

Highest Save Percentage in One-Run Save Opportunities, 2008
(min 10 one-run save opportunities)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sv/Opp. . . . Pct
Mariano Rivera, NYY. . . . . . . .17/17. . . . 100.0
Brad Lidge, Phi. . . . . . . . . . . 16/16. . . . 100.0
B.J. Ryan, Tor. . . . . . . . . . . .13/14. . . . . 92.9
Bobby Jenks, CWS. . . . . . . . . 11/12. . . . .91.7
Francisco Rodriguez, LAA. . . . 23/27. . . . .85.2
Brian Wilson, SF. . . . . . . . . . .16/19. . . . .84.2

Surprisingly, Toronto’s B.J. Ryan has struggled all spring. Reportedly his velocity is down in the mid-80s, and the 33-year-old left-hander has been working on mechanical tweaks to boost his radar readings. This comes after Ryan made a strong return from Tommy John surgery in 2008.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Gary Sheffield’s pursuit of home run No. 500 was put on hold Monday, when the 40-year-old slugger was cut loose by the Detroit Tigers. Becoming the 25th player to hit 500 homers seemed just around the corner for the 21-year veteran, who finished the 2008 season at 499.

Following shoulder surgery in October 2007, Sheffield lacked his typical power stroke for most of last season. Also bothered by a torn finger tendon and an oblique strain, he also didn’t make contact as consistently, batting .225 with 19 homer and 57 RBIs in 114 games.

Although Sheffield was just 8-for-45 (.178) this spring with three home runs, it's all but certain that he will find a team willing to take a chance on tapping into his power. With the Tigers forced to pay his $14 million salary, Sheffield is a cheap risk to provide some pop off the bench.

On the other hand, the tough economic times have forced dozens of players into retirement, as teams are more likely to give opportunities to young players over marginal veterans. If that’s how the next week were to play out for Sheffield, he would have to settle for 499 career homers.

Only two major leaguers in history have retired within 10 home runs of 500 without getting there.

The first was Hall of Famer Lou Gehrig, who had 493 home runs at age 35 when the 1938 campaign came to a close. His physical decline began that summer, when the Yankees’ first baseman was no longer parking pitches he normally hit out. He batted .295 that year, the same as he did as a rookie in 1925, and those are the only two full seasons he failed to hit .300. Gehrig connected on just 29 homers in 1938, his lowest total in a decade. Teammates noticed his physical problems off the field as well.

The weakness caused by ALS was originally misdiagnosed as a gall bladder ailment, but it became increasingly clear that something much more serious was wrong by the time the 1939 season rolled around. After going 4-for-28 without a home run in his first eight games of the new season, Gehrig sat for the first time to end his streak of playing 2,130 consecutive contests. He never hit another home run or played another game, and soon after, his ALS was properly diagnosed at the Mayo Clinic. He was honored at Yankee Stadium on that Fourth of July and died less than two years later.

The other major leaguer to fall just short of 500 homers also stalled at 493. That was slugging first baseman Fred McGriff. Playing for the Rays and Cubs, the left-handed hitter stroked 31 homers in 2001 and 30 more in 2002. His 40th birthday was just months away the following spring, when the Cubs turned first base over to Hee-Seop Choi and Eric Karros and McGriff signed with the Dodgers. McGriff started slowly and was lost for two months to a groin injury in June, and he failed to produce when he returned. He finished the season with a .249 average and 13 home runs in 86 games, giving him 491 for his career.

The next spring, McGriff returned to Tampa Bay, where he had played three-plus seasons and drilled 97 homers. He never regained the stroke that made him a feared slugger. After McGriff batted .181 and hit just two dingers in 27 games during the first half, he called it quits in July.

Most of the star players of Sheffield’s era already have reached the 500 milestone -- Barry Bonds (762), Ken Griffey Jr. (611), Sammy Sosa (609), Mark McGwire (583), Rafael Palmeiro (569), Alex Rodriguez (553), Jim Thome (541), Manny Ramirez (527) and Frank Thomas (521) -- and Sheffield should get his chance.

Looking beyond Sheffield, who’s the next threat to flirt with 500 home runs? Only two other active players have as many as 400. Next in line is 36-year-old Carlos Delgado with 469. Off in the distance is Chipper Jones, who at age 36 has 408 and just agreed to a three-year contract extension with the Braves this week.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In 2008, it took 163 games to eliminate the Minnesota Twins from playoff contention. The surprising AL Central contender thrived calling on a young rotation that is a cornerstone of the 2009 club.

Scott Baker, who turned 27 last September, is the grizzled veteran. Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are 26. Francisco Liriano, who missed half of 2008 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, is 25, and Kevin Slowey is 24. Only Liriano failed to win at least 10 games, and in 128 starts between the five of them, they posted a 3.96 ERA that was a half-run better than the league-wide mark of 4.48 for AL starters.

Keep in mind that the Twins play 81 games at the Metrodome, which has a reputation for being a friendly stop for hitters. The truth is, though, the Twins’ pitching staff enjoyed working there in 2008.

2008 Minnesota Twins Pitching, Home vs. Road

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Away. . . . . . . . . . . .Home
Overall. . . . . . . . . . .5.10. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.27
Starters. . . . . . . . . .5.03. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.65
Relievers. . . . . . . . . 5.22. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.48

All five of the young starters followed the home-road split. None of them had an ERA as high as 4.00 at home, and only Baker had an ERA lower than 4.00 away from the Dome.

Twins’ 2009 Starters in 2008, Home vs. Road

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Away. . . . . . . . . . . .Home
Scott Baker. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-3 (3.95). . . . . . . . . 5-1 (2.78)
Nick Blackburn. . . . . . . . . . . . .3-8 (4.97). . . . . . . . . 8-3 (2.95)
Francisco Liriano. . . . . . . . . . . 2-2 (5.35). . . . . . . . . 4-2 (2.76)
Glen Perkins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 (5.13). . . . . . . . . 7-3 (3.84)
Kevin Slowey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 (4.52). . . . . . . . . 7-3 (3.38)

As much as these guys thrived before the hometown fans, the bullpen especially felt at home pitching under the dome. Closer Joe Nathan posted a 0.66 ERA there and converted all 24 of his save chances in the home whites. His 2.33 road ERA wasn’t bad either, though all six of his blown saves were recorded away from home. The results were similar for other key relievers, including Jesse Crain (5.22 vs. 2.16), who didn’t allow a home run in 33.1 innings at the Dome, and the now-departed Juan Rincon (8.86 vs. 3.97).

It was an impressive year at a facility that had yielded a 3.98 ERA to all pitchers over the two previous seasons combined. It might be hard for the young Twins staff to repeat that home performance. On the other hand, though, more major league experience may mean an adjustment in the right direction to the road results.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

When the subject is how specialized certain aspects of baseball have become, we often think first about relief pitching. Fifty years ago, a reliever was little more than a failed starter who mopped up in those infrequent cases a starter didn’t go nine innings. Today, ideally a team has a dependable reliever for each of the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

The days of the fixed lineup are long gone as well in this age of specialization. Only seven big league teams used the same lineup as many as 10 times in 2008. Ned Yost and Dale Sveum, the Milwaukee Brewers manager who was fired in mid-September and his replacement, used three different batting orders 10 or more times. Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was the only other skipper to use more than one lineup at least 10 times (twice), and he called on his favorite in a major league-high 19 games. Yes, just 19. That’s not a typo.

On the flip side, eight teams never used the same batting order more than five times in 2008. They were the Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays. The Royals never used the same lineup more than three times all season. The others all used their most common lineups five times.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If there’s a late-inning tie in the major leagues, with Ichiro at the plate, the potential winning run at third base and first base open, is there a manager alive who is likely to pitch to the Mariners star?

Probably not, but pitching to Ichiro was the decision of South Korea manager In Sik Kim in Monday night’s WBC championship game. Ichiro stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 10th with runners on first and third and two outs. After Akinori Iwamura advanced to second uncontested on an early pitch in the count, it was a personal invite to walk Ichiro and pitch to shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima.

Ichiro, of course, drilled a single up the middle to score both baserunners, and Japan clinched a 5-3 victory to repeat as WBC champions. It was a terrific game with loads of drama, including Korea’s ninth-inning comeback to force extras, thanks to a two-out, RBI single by Bum Ho Lee.

Yet, it’s unfortunate the game came down to a poor decision, which seemed ever more obvious as Ichiro’s plate appearance unfolded. Although he had struggled in the tournament, Ichiro had three hits going into his final at-bat. He’s among the world’s best at making contact and delivering the ball where he directs it. Plus, he’s always a threat to beat out an infield hit -- Ichiro led the majors with 52 in 2008 -- and such a hit was just as likely to score the go-ahead run as a flare or a line drive to the outfield.

Ichiro finally singled on the eighth pitch of the at-bat. By then, he had fouled off four pitches in a row in one sequence, and a mistake pitch seemed inevitable. It finally came, a pitch in the middle of the plate, and Ichiro laced it into center.

Japan’s repeat is a reminder of how fundamentally sound its best players are. We know the stars -- Daisuke Matsuzaka, who won the WBC’s MVP honors for a second time in two tournaments, and two-time American League batting champion Ichiro -- but the entire team demonstrated how the game should be played. We’ll see the Japanese team play again on American soil in four years.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

The statistical disadvantage of falling behind in the count has been well documented over the years, though a final look back at 2008 reveals that a few players defied the odds.

Last season, the batting average across the majors after falling behind 0-2 in the count was .179. Among the 174 major leaguers who started 0-2 at least 80 times last season, however, there were three .300 hitters: the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler (.326, 28-for-86), Detroit’s Placido Polanco (.315, 28-for-89) and Yadier Molina of the Cardinals (.309, 25-for-81).

It was a rough first season in North America for the Cubs’ Kosuke Fukudome, who hit .257-10-58 in 150 games in 2008. The outfielder demonstrated impressive plate patience, however, drawing 81 walks and posting a .359 OBP. He walked a major league-high 11 times after falling behind 0-2. Next was Adam Dunn (10), though he posted the lowest batting average (.088, 8-for-91) among those major leaguers who went 0-2 at least 80 times last season. Fukudome hit .205 (18-for-88).

On the flip side, it’s just as difficult for a pitcher to record a strikeout after going 3-0 in the count. The 2008 leader in strikeouts after starting 3-0 was Rockies lefty Jorge De La Rosa with seven. Two top-flight relievers, the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Marmol of the Cubs, struck out six in recovering from a 3-0 count.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

As gifted as the major league talent pool is, there aren’t enough legitimate leadoff hitters in the game. In 2008, the major league-wide on-base percentage was .345, and a dozen teams didn’t get an OBP as high as that from their leadoff man.

The lowest leadoff OBP by a team last season was .285, courtesy of the Oakland Athletics, a club for which plate patience and getting on base are mantras of the development process. The worst in the National League was the .290 mark by the Houston Astros.

The highest OBP from the top of the order belonged to the Florida Marlins, at .391. One of the Marlins’ brightest stars, Hanley Ramirez, posted a .400 mark in 135 games batting No. 1. What’s even more remarkable about Ramirez is that he’s the complete package as a leadoff man.

Among major leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances as a leadoff hitter last season, no one posted a higher OBP or slugging percentage in the No. 1 spot than Ramirez. He slugged .559 leading off, good for a .959 on-base-plus-slugging. That’s easily the highest mark among players with 300 or more plate appearances as a No. 1 hitter.

Highest On-Base-Plus-Slugging (OPS) as No. 1 Hitter
(min 300 PA at leadoff)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OBP. . . . . SLG. . . . . OPS
Hanley Ramirez, Fla . . . . . . . . . . .400. . . . . .559. . . . . .959
Ian Kinsler, Tex. . . . . . . . . . . . . .377. . . . . .521. . . . . .898
Nate McLouth, Pit . . . . . . . . . . .362. . . . . .534. . . . . .895
Alfonso Soriano, ChC. . . . . . . . . .350. . . . . .544. . . . . .894
Stephen Drew, Ari . . . . . . . . . . .361. . . . . .528. . . . . .889

The Marlins were one of only two teams to have a slugging percentage of .500 or higher out of the No. 1 spot. The Marlins led the majors at .524, and the Cleveland Indians were next with a .501 mark. Grady Sizemore led off all 157 games he played last season, and he slugged .502.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

History tells us that expansion leads to an immediate spike in power and run production, which tapers off to more normal levels after a few years. The offensive numbers took off through two rounds of expansion in the 1990s, with Colorado and Florida joining the National League in 1993 and Arizona and Tampa Bay added to the majors in 1998.

In 2008, however, the power dipped to its lowest levels since 1993, the inaugural season for the Rockies and the Marlins.

MLB’s Lowest Runs/Game, HR/Game, Slugging -- 1993-2008

. Yr. . . . . . .R/G. . . . . . . . . . . . .Yr. . . . . .HR/G. . . . . . . . . . Yr. . . . . . SLG
2005. . . . . . 4.59. . . . . . . . . . . .1993. . . . . .0.89. . . . . . . . . . 1993. . . . . .403
1993. . . . . . 4.60. . . . . . . . . . . .2008. . . . . .1.00. . . . . . . . . . 2008. . . . . .416
2002. . . . . . 4.62. . . . . . . . . . . .1995. . . . . .1.01. . . . . . . . . . 2002. . . . . .417
2008. . . . . . 4.65. . . . . . . . . . . .2007. . . . . .1.02. . . . . . . . . . 1995. . . . . .417
2003. . . . . . 4.73. . . . . . . . . . . .1997. . . . . .1.02. . . . . . . . . . 2005. . . . . .419

The runs per game in 2008 weren’t as far off recent seasons as the homers and slugging. Home runs have been down each of the last two seasons, compared to 1.11 homers per game in 2006, which is closer to the 1.08 average for the decade.

This writer knows what many of you are thinking. It doesn’t require ESP (or ESPN). It’s easy to assume the juice is the difference, and most likely it’s a part of the equation, but it’s not the full story.

Performance-enhancing drugs have probably been given too much credit for the power surge of the last dozen years or so. Expansion has played a role in it, and no doubt the plethora of smaller ballparks that have been built in the last decade has made a difference. A decade ago, there was a lot of talk about the ball being juiced, and that very well may be true, but that idea’s been lost in the noise about juiced players.

The game is a 133-year battle between hitter and pitcher, and both have had to make adjustments during eras that favored the other. It’s a never-ending process, baseball’s version of survival of the fittest.

It may be that major league bullpens have helped turn the tide against hitters, particularly in 2008, when run production was down and strikeouts were up. The specialization of the bullpen is part of the game’s evolution, and it seems to be making a successful adaptation.

MLB Batting & Bullpen Performance, 2006-08

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2006. . . . . . . 2007. . . . . . . . 2008
Hitters’ K Pct. . . . . .16.8. . . . . . . . .17.1. . . . . . . . . 17.5
Runs/Game. . . . . . . .4.86. . . . . . . . .4.80. . . . . . . . . 4.65
SLG . . . . . . . . . . . . .432 . . . . . . . . .423. . . . . . . . . .416

Bullpen ERA. . . . . . . 4.20. . . . . . . . 4.16. . . . . . . . . 4.08
Bullpen OBA . . . . . . .259. . . . . . . . .256. . . . . . . . . .254
Bullpen K/9. . . . . . . 7.29. . . . . . . . .7.35. . . . . . . . .7.52

There may be other on-the-field factors in the power downturn as well, though that’s a subject for another researcher.

The key point is that when it comes to the dropoff in power, what goes on down on the field isn’t as obvious to identify as a contributing factor, certainly less so than an easy target such as steroid use. The game keeps evolving as both hitters and pitchers continue to adjust to each other and the conditions in which they play.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Think of the American college kids beating Russia’s best hockey players in 1980. Equally remarkable are The Netherlands’ two victories over the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic.

As a game, baseball -- or honkball, as it’s called in The Netherlands -- barely registers among the Dutch population. Soccer is the sport that matters. The story goes that baseball took root there during World War II, when Dutch kids took up the game in defiance of the country’s German occupiers.

Although honkball has never taken off, it has a core following that continues to grow ever so slowly. Dutch prospects, who often are quite raw due to the lack of coaching, are now making their way to North America. In fact, 10 of the 28 players on the WBC roster are affiliated with major league teams here, but the only Dutch-born player to appear in the big leagues last season was Marlins reliever Rick VandenHurk.

It’s stunning that a country that has yet to make its mark in professional baseball across the pond could upset a Dominican Republic team that was loaded with top major leaguers and a favorite to win the WBC. Not once, but twice.

Okay, the Dutch team was aided by the contributions of a now-autonomous New World colony, the Netherlands Antilles, but the likes of former major leaguers Sidney Ponson, Gene Kingsale and Randall Simon were never stars and clearly their best years are in the rearview mirror.

The Dutch held the Dominican team to just three runs over two games and 21 innings, calling on Ponson, a couple of veterans of The Netherlands’ own professional league and a few minor league prospects.

There’s 20-year-old Tom Stuifbergen, a Twins farmhand who has yet to advance beyond rookie ball. He held the Dominican Republic scoreless for four innings in Tuesday’s elimination game.

The Dutch bullpen allowed just one unearned run to the Dominican club over 13 innings. A pair of Class-A prospects -- left-hander Alexander Smit (Reds) and Dennis Neuman (Red Sox), a 19-year-old right-hander from Curacao -- worked four scoreless frames in the two games. They contributed 2.3 scoreless innings Tuesday, and Diego Markwell, a 28-year-old southpaw who stalled at the Double-A level six years ago, also didn’t allow a run in one inning of work.

Neither team got on the scoreboard until the 11th inning Tuesday, when the Dominican team broke through thanks to a fielding error by Kingsale, who dived for a ball and missed, allowing Mets star Jose Reyes to score from first base.

The run could have buried the Dutch team, which has had little international success. After all, The Netherlands went quietly in the 2006 WBC and managed just one win in seven games in Beijing last summer. The Dutch were shut out four times and outscored 50-9 at the Olympics, with the sole win a 6-4 decision over host China.

In this WBC, however, the Dutch dream lives on. Kingsale took the sting out of his fielding miscue by singling home The Netherlands’ first run in the bottom half of the inning. After Dominican reliever Carlos Marmol threw away a pickoff attempt at first, allowing Kingsale to streak around to third base, a sharply hit grounder off the bat of Yurrendell de Caster escaped the Dominican’s Willy Aybar at first. Kingsale came home with the game-winning run.

The 2-1 victory means The Netherlands will advance to the next round of play in Miami. First, though, is a second matchup with Puerto Rico this afternoon, a team that has beaten the Dutch in both the 2006 and this year’s WBC.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Which major league rotation would you think had the lowest ERA in 2008? Perhaps the Cubs? Or maybe the Red Sox?

How about the Toronto Blue Jays? Yes, the Jays starters posted a 3.72 mark that was the lowest in the major leagues. They also worked deep into games in 2008. Toronto’s rotation led the majors in innings pitched per start (6.31).

It’s a brand new year. The Blue Jays lost A.J. Burnett to free agency and Shawn Marcum to Tommy John surgery -- and it’s uncertain when Dustin McGowan will return from shoulder surgery that could sideline him all season. Together the trio combined for 484 innings in 2008.

The 2009 rotation begins with ace Roy Halladay, and Jesse Litsch and Dave Purcey appear to have spots locked up. With two openings this spring, the Jays have a number of pitching prospects who have a chance to show they’re ready in Florida. Southpaws Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Brad Mills, three of the organization’s more promising prospects, are in the mix, as are fellow rookie Scott Richmond, inexperienced veterans Casey Janssen and Brian Burres, injury-rehab candidates Matt Clement and Mike Maroth, and Japanese veteran Ken Takahashi.

There’s enough promise in the group, but the trio of lefties would benefit from more development time. Clement has been impressive in camp so far, but in all, the veterans may raise more questions than they answer. It’s a long shot that the Toronto rotation will be as effective in 2009.

The Jays bullpen will have to be better, as it’s likely to see more work in 2009. Last season, no major league pen pitched fewer innings (425).

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Phillies offense has been among the National League’s best the last two seasons, which have produced a pair of NL East titles and a World Series championship last fall.

The key difference between 2007 and 2008 was the pitching. The Phillies scored nearly 100 fewer runs last season, when runs and slugging in the majors was down over the year before, but the Philadelphia staff was markedly better in 2008.

Philadelphia Pitching, 2007 vs. 2008
(NL rank in parentheses)

Year. . . . .Record. . . . . ERA. . . . . . . . .OBA
2007. . . . . 89-73. . . . . 4.73 (13) . . . . . .276 (13)
2008. . . . . 92-70. . . . . 3.88 (4) . . . . . . .260 (8)

Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick posted similar win totals both years, though Moyer was markedly better last season and Kendrick wasn’t as effective. One reason for the improvement in 2008 was the return of Brett Myers to the rotation, who went 10-13 with a 4.55 ERA.

There’s also reason for optimism in 2009. Although Moyer may not duplicate his best season in years, Myers is a good bet to have a better 2009 -- and the Phillies will have July acquisition Joe Blanton for an entire season. The Phillies also have solid fifth-starter candidates in Kendrick, veteran Chan Ho Park and top prospects J.A. Happ and Carlos Carrasco.

There are question marks regarding Chase Utley’s rehabilitation from offseason hip surgery and the loss of slugger Pat Burrell to free agency, but Utley is taking batting practice and Raul Ibanez should provide enough offense in Burrell’s place. The Braves will have a rebuilt rotation and the Mets will have a better bullpen, but the Phils are still the team to beat in the NL East.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For baseball’s free agents, it’s been one strange offseason. The big downturn in the economy led to a slow free-agent market, leaving the likes of Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Orlando Hudson and numerous others still unsigned in February.

The free-agent storyline took another odd turn Saturday, when the Minnesota Twins, of all teams, signed a Scott Boras client. Except for reliever Luis Ayala, the Twins hadn’t signed a major leaguer from outside the organization all winter. Now, one week into spring training, Minnesota has inked former White Sox third baseman Joe Crede to a one-year contract.

The Twins and Giants were Crede’s suitors, and a week or two ago, it was rumored that a $5 million guarantee was a sticking point in negotiations. Boras found neither team was willing to take much risk with his client, who has had two back surgeries in two years to repair the same herniated disk. When the 30-year-old veteran agreed to a one-year deal with a $2.5 million base salary, and incentives that could tack on another $4.5 million, the Twins had acquired a regular who could make a significant impact if he stays healthy.

Playing at the Metrodome, one of just three major league parks still using artificial turf, wouldn’t seem conducive to avoiding a recurrence of Crede’s back ailment.

"I've never had much of a problem playing on the turf," Crede told St. Paul Pioneer Press sportswriter Kelsie Smith. "Even in Toronto and Minnesota, it was never a thought even in my mind when we went there. “ That’s different, of course, than playing 81 games at home on an artificial surface, plus roughly another 10 in Toronto and Tampa.

If Crede is up to it, and the Twins settle on a long-term relationship, the good news is the team moves outdoors to Target Field in 2010. He seems like a solid fit in Minnesota -- a quiet, hard-working guy who excels defensively. And the Twins, who finished last in the American League in home runs and ranked near the bottom in slugging in 2008, sure could use his bat.

If Crede can approach the 30 home runs and 94 RBIs he produced in his last healthy season in 2006, the Twins will contend in 2009. Even with their power shortage last season, the Twins ranked third in the AL behind Texas and Boston in runs. Add in another power bat and the return of Michael Cuddyer from a finger injury, and Minnesota could see a huge boost in run production. If the young, up-and-coming rotation improves on a 4.32 starter ERA that ranked in the middle of the league in 2008, the Twins could be the front-runner in what looks like at least a three-team AL Central race.

Crede’s move to Minnesota will bring a new twist to the Twins-White Sox rivalry. It already includes lingering memories of a hard Torii Hunter slide at home plate a few years ago, Sox manager Ozzie Guillen labeling the young and hungry Twins “piranhas,” and a Jim Thome home run in Game No. 163 last September, lifting Chicago to a 1-0 win, the AL Central crown and the final playoff berth. Crede can’t help anticipate the showdowns with his former club, as he explained to Smith.

"I just spoke with (Paul) Konerko last night and said this might get a little awkward, and he said, 'It's only going to be awkward when me and B.A. (Brian Anderson) are yelling at you from the dugout.' "

Konerko isn’t the only White Sox player bantering about hosting a reunion for his former teammate. Over the weekend, White Sox southpaw Mark Buehrle reminded Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that in Minnesota, the White Sox dugout is on the first-base line. It’s a different story on the south side of Chicago, where the home team resides along the third-base side.

“When we’re in Minnesota, he’ll be far away,” Buehrle joked. “But at our place, he’s going to be worn out.” He expects Konerko and others to test Crede’s focus when the two teams first meet.

The reunion takes place early in the 2009 season. Before it is two weeks old, the Twins and Sox open a weekend series in Chicago on Friday, April 10.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Neither major league team in Texas has an established starting catcher, but the immediate future behind the plate is much brighter for the Rangers. They will have two terrific catching prospects on the roster.

With veteran Gerald Laird dealt to Detroit in December, the more experienced catching prospect is 23-year-old Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The switch-hitter’s progress at the plate has been slow in the majors, but as a part-time player last season, he showed more patience and jumped on right-handed pitching in July and August before an inflamed elbow shut him down on Sept. 1.

Rookie Taylor Teagarden joined the Rangers the day Saltalamacchia was injured. He hit from the start and batted .319/.396/.809, with five doubles and six home runs in 53 plate appearances. The 25-year-old Teagarden, a right-handed hitter, will make his case this spring for a fair share of playing time. His hot September followed a disappointing season offensively in the minors, so the rookie’s performance with the Rangers may not be a true gauge of his readiness.

Although Teagarden may need more Triple-A fine-tuning as a hitter, his long-term future is a bright spot for the organization. The Rangers also have Max Ramirez, a 24-year-old hitting prospect who may be better suited for first base or DH duties. The Red Sox have shown interest in Ramirez over the winter.

For fantasy owners, how Saltalamacchia and Teagarden perform at the plate is all that matters. Texas skipper Ron Washington, though, is more concerned about how the two inexperienced backstops handle a pitching staff that doesn’t throw enough strikes and hasn’t learned how to win.

A year ago, the Astros had reason to be excited about J.R. Towles, arguably their best prospect. The right-handed-hitting catcher had handled pitching at every stop and flashed his power potential the last two years. After climbing through three minor league levels in 2007, Towles closed the season by going 15-for-40 (.375) with five doubles and 12 RBIs for Houston.

Towles struggled offensively from the start a year ago, and it was all downhill from there in three disastrous stints with the Astros. From April 25 on, in his final 109 major league plate appearances, he was 9-for-97 (.093) with three doubles as his only extra-base hits and 32 strikeouts. He finished at .137 and slugged .253 in 54 games.

Obviously Towles, with just 427 at-bats in the high minors, wasn’t ready. Although the 25-year-old prospect offers a promising package of pop and speed, his extreme difficulties in 2008 suggest it may not surface in 2009.

Meanwhile, Houston’s other options include Humberto Quintero and Toby Hall, two former prospects who lack the bat to be regulars. Quintero, on the other hand, is an excellent defensive catcher. His 2008 performance behind the plate made him the starter down the stretch, despite hitting .226/.270/.298 in 59 games for the season. Among all catchers with at least 50 games behind the plate, Quintero ranked seventh with a caught-stealing percentage of 31.8 percent.

Hall has experienced a burning sensation and stiffness in his throwing shoulder, and he awaits the results of an MRI exam. If he’s healthy, he’s a good bet to be Houston’s backup, someone who might get more playing time than most second-string catchers.

The Astros also have Rule 5 pickup Lou Palmisano, a former prospect who has been slowed by injuries in a six-year minor league career. Knee surgery limited him to 27 games in 2008. As a hitter, the 26-year-old Palmisano has stalled at the Double-A level, but the Astros acquired him after he ripped up the Arizona Fall League during the offseason.

Houston manager Cecil Cooper has already met individually with his catchers. Alyson Footer of mlb.com reports that the skipper told Towles that Quintero is "a nose ahead of him" on the depth chart, but a solid spring could go a long way. Cooper reminded Palmisano that in 2008, right-hander Wesley Wright went from Rule 5 pickup to a key member of the Astros bullpen.

This segment appeared today in an opening look around spring training camps in “Thom’s Take,” a feature of STATS Fantasy Advantage. SFA is the fantasy tool to make running your teams easier. For $19.95 for the entire 2009 season, you receive a portfolio that allows you to easily track your players, complete player news and notes regarding injuries and performance, access to STATS’ extensive databases and “Thom’s Take,” which provides fantasy information and prospect features throughout the season. You may order STATS Fantasy Advantage at stats.com.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Arizona Diamondbacks executive Ken Kendrick wants all 104 players who failed an anonymous drug test in 2003 to be identified. Kendrick believes full disclosure would help baseball recover from the mess it’s in.

Part of that mess can be attributed to the owners, who turned a blind eye for years and didn’t want to know about a long-rumored steroid scandal. Kendrick believes those 104 players should take one for the team, even though their exposure is a violation of the collective bargaining agreement that the owners and players took months to negotiate.

Those 2003 tests, which marked the beginning of the drug-testing program, were to be anonymous, and positive tests were not punishable. The first-round of testing was simply an attempt to document the numbers of players who were using performance-enhancing drugs.

For failed tests this old, which were to be anonymous, the 104 players should be protected by the collective bargaining agreement -- and no owner should be suggesting that it be broken.

"I understand the other side of the argument, where privacy rights that are granted, there's a right to protection,” said Kendrick, who doesn’t seem to understand it at all. “But they were doing something that was against the law.”

Kendrick’s personal opinion is that those who broke the law don’t deserve protection under the law. In this case, the “law” is a contract negotiated by his fellow owners, and the 104 players who took tests held up their end of the deal.

Disclosing who the 104 players are doesn’t cleanse baseball. It’s easy for Kendrick and commissioner Bud Selig to express disappointment in Alex Rodriguez, but the scandal happened under Selig’s watch, with rumors circulating for years. Perhaps more than these 104 players should be sacrificed to help repair the game’s image. Do we have any volunteers at the top?

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Joe Torre’s book and last week’s revelations about steroid use by Alex Rodriguez spark memories of the old Bronx Zoo that was at its peak 30 years ago. The craziness stepped up when Reggie Jackson joined the Yankees for the 1977 season, and he immediately ignited a storm and alienated teammates with controversial remarks about Yankees catcher Thurman Munson.

There was bad blood between Jackson and manager Billy Martin before the star’s arrival, and they mixed it up a few times in New York. And then there was the string of Martin firings by George Steinbrenner, which began during Jackson’s five years in the Bronx.

The Sports Illustrated story pushed Torre’s tome to the back of the sports pages, but the next grenade heading in the Yankees’ direction will only feed the media firestorm. Now comes word that an unauthorized biography of Alex Rodriguez will be rushed for an April 14 release. Just in time to steal the thunder from the start of a new season. The book, “A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez” by Selena Roberts of The New York Times, reportedly will give us salacious details of his private life, which no longer will be private.

The 2009 Yankees will have to play through this mess. They will downplay it publicly, but the media blitz will take some of the fun out of going to the park.

Right now the franchise is more a celebrity circus than a baseball team, but baseball begins again this week, and what the Yankees did in 2008 has more meaning than what they did in 2003 or during the Joe Torre era.

The rotation was a disaster, as Chien Ming-Wang was lost for the season in June and youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy weren’t ready to take on starting jobs. The offseason tells us the Yankees will have a better rotation in 2009 -- maybe not $244 million better, but better. CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett will join mainstays Andy Pettitte, reliever-turned-starter Joba Chamberlain and Wang, who should be ready to go next week.

The biggest concern for the 2009 team may be its run production. Although the pitching has taken much of the heat for the 2008 Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time in 14 seasons, the offense deserves an equal share of the blame. Run production was down markedly over 2007.

During the 13 consecutive seasons in which the Yankees reached the playoffs, beginning in 1995, the 2007 club was the most prolific at the plate. It scored more runs (968) and posted the highest slugging percentage (.463) of any Yankees team in those 13 years -- and the 2007 Yankees outscored and outslugged all other big league teams that summer by a substantial margin.

Most Runs Scored & Highest SLG, Single Season by Yankees, 1995-2008

Yr. . . . . . . . .Runs. . . . . . . . . . Yr. . . . . . . .SLG
2007. . . . . . . .968. . . . . . . . . . .2007. . . . . . .463
1998. . . . . . . .965. . . . . . . . . . .2006. . . . . . .461
2006. . . . . . . .930. . . . . . . . . . .1998. . . . . . .460
1999. . . . . . . .900. . . . . . . . . . .2004. . . . . . .458

One year later, in 2008, the Yankees scored 179 fewer runs than in ‘07. Their 789 runs ranked seventh in the American League last season, and it was the Yankees’ lowest total since 1995 -- the first year of New York’s playoff run.

The same is true of the .427 slugging percentage of the 2008 Yankees -- a drop of 36 points over 2007 -- also the team’s lowest since 1995.

Fewest Runs Scored & Lowest SLG, Single Season by Yankees, 1995-2008

Yr. . . . . . . . . .Runs. . . . . . . . .Yr. . . . . . . . . . .SLG
1995. . . . . . . . 749. . . . . . . . . . 1995. . . . . . . . .420
2008. . . . . . . . 789. . . . . . . . . . 2008. . . . . . . . .427
2001. . . . . . . . 804. . . . . . . . . . 2001. . . . . . . . .435
1996, 2000. . . . 871. . . . . . . . . . 1997. . . . . . . . .436

Going into spring training, Mark Teixeira is the key addition to an aging lineup that includes Derek Jeter (34), Johnny Damon (35), Hideki Matsui (34) and Jorge Posada (37). Gone are Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi after collecting 196 RBIs last season.

A number of Yankees had off years in 2008, and Posada and Matsui were lost to injury for long stretches. In 2009, Yankees fans will find out if the decline was an aberration -- a coincidence of off years and injury -- or the beginning of the end for a few veteran Yankees.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 8:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It took 133 summers of major league baseball, but in 2008, a batter finally struck out 200 times in a single season. Although Phillies slugger Ryan Howard flirted with the 200 plateau the last two years, fanning 199 times in both 2007 and 2008, it was a prospect playing his second big league season who broke 200 and stole this year’s strikeout title from Howard.

Arizona’s Mark Reynolds posted 204 strikeouts in 613 plate appearances. That’s one strikeout for every three trips to the plate, a 3.00 PA-K ratio that was the worst among all major leaguers who qualified for the batting title in 2008.

Lowest PA-K Ratio by Hitter, 2008
(min 502 PA)

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . PA. . . . . . .K. . . . . . PA-K
Mark Reynolds, Ari. . . .613. . . . . .204. . . . . .3.00
Jack Cust, Oak. . . . . . 598. . . . . .197. . . . . .3.04
Ryan Howard, Phi. . . . 700. . . . . .199. . . . . .3.52
Mike Cameron, Mil. . . .508. . . . . .142. . . . . .3.58
Dan Uggla, Fla. . . . . . . 619. . . . . .171. . . . . .3.62

Reynolds and Oakland’s Jack Cust easily led all qualifiers in strikeout frequency. At least Howard, who finished second to Reynolds in strikeouts, managed to limit the third strike to once in every 3.52 plate appearances.

History suggests high strikeout rates usually come with an upside. Since the end of the dead-ball era in 1919, individual seasons or periods of climbing strikeout rates have often gone hand-in-hand with more runs per game and loftier slugging percentages.

That’s certainly been the story through two rounds of expansion in the last 15 years. Last season’s strikeout leaders are among the game’s top run producers. Howard led the majors by large margins with 48 home runs and 146 RBIs. Florida’s Dan Uggla, who finished fourth among major leaguers with 171 strikeouts, also stroked 32 homers. Among all middle infielders, only Chase Utley (33) and Hanley Ramirez (33) had more. Uggla and Utley were the only middle infielders to score 90 runs and drive in 90.

Major league hitters had been inching closer to the 200-K mark for decades, but they’ve sprinted to the finish line in this hitter-friendly era. In 2008, major leaguers struck out at record rates. They whiffed once for every 5.71 plate appearances, and that 5.71 PA-K ratio is the lowest since the end of the dead-ball era.

With strikeouts at an all-time high, the next question is: does it matter? Are strikeouts really any worse than any other kind of out?

The answer may surprise you. It’s available in a recent examination of strikeouts in ‘Thom’s Take,’ which is a feature of STATS Fantasy Advantage. SFA is the tool to make running your fantasy teams easier. For $19.95 for all of 2009, you receive a portfolio that allows you to track your players, complete player news and notes regarding injuries and performance, and access to STATS’ extensive databases throughout the season. You may order STATS Fantasy Advantage at stats.com.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum built on an impressive 2007 debut to claim the Cy Young Award in the National League last season. Lincecum, who is just 24 years old, finished 18-5 for the 72-90 Giants. He posted a 2.62 ERA in 33 starts and struck out a major league-leading 265 over 227 innings. The right-hander’s success may have kept the Giants from losing 100 games for the first time since 1985.

If there’s a 2009 breakout candidate with a chance to do what the Giants’ new ace did in 2008, it might be Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw, who turns 21 in March. He debuted with a quality start on May 25 and flashed promise on and off all summer, but Kershaw was at his best in September. He held hitters to a .219 average in five starts and a relief appearance, going 3-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 28.2 frames.

The 6-foot-3 power pitcher also happens to be nearly a year younger than any other active hurler who has at least one major league start.

10 Youngest Active Pitchers
(minimum one MLB start)

Clayton Kershaw, LAD. . . LHP. . .03/19/88
Shairon Martis, Was. . . . RHP. . .03/30/87
Ryan Tucker, Fla. . . . . . RHP. . .12/06/86
Jonathon Niese, NYM. . .RHP. . .10/27/86
Chris Volstad, Fla. . . . . .RHP. . .09/23/86

Michael Bowden, Bos. . .RHP. . .09/09/86
Nick Adenhart, LAA. . . . RHP. . .08/24/86
Jaime Garcia, StL. . . . . .LHP. . .07/08/86
Tommy Hunter, Tex. . . .RHP. . .07/03/86
Phil Hughes, NYY. . . . . .RHP. . .06/24/86

It seems we’ve been waiting a long time for Phil Hughes to settle into the Yankees rotation, but among chart qualifiers, the 22-year-old right-hander is younger than all but nine of his peers.

There are 66 pitchers with a major league start who were 24 or younger on the final day of 2008 -- born since Jan. 1, 1984 -- and Hughes is one of the youngest despite his 21 major league starts. Results haven’t met unrealistic expectations, and a stress fracture in his ribcage sidetracked a disappointing 2008 in which he was 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight outings.

With the Yankees signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and bringing back Andy Pettitte last week, Hughes probably spends most of 2009 at Triple-A Scranton. He’s still very young and gets another year to polish his game.

Lincecum (6/15/84) also is among the elite 66 as the 52nd-youngest pitcher with a major league start. So is Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir (1/24/84), who checks in at No. 61 on the list. The southpaw has posted a winning record in each of his four full seasons with the Rays, going 45-34 (3.51 ERA) during a stretch the team was 66 games under .500.

The list of 66 also includes Felix Hernandez and John Danks, as well as a host of pitching prospects worth tracking in spring training. A look at a Sweet 16 of this group appears on STATS Fantasy Advantage, the fantasy tool to make running your teams easier. For $19.95 for the entire 2009 season, you receive a portfolio that allows you to easily track your players, complete player news and notes regarding injuries and performance, access to STATS’ extensive databases and ‘Thom’s Take,’ which provides fantasy information and prospect features throughout the season. You may order STATS Fantasy Advantage at stats.com.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Wednesday, the Mariners and Cubs brokered a three-player deal involving one of the biggest trading chips of the offseason, Aaron Heilman. His stock bottomed-out following a tumultuous 2008 season, when he and the rest of the Mets bullpen seemed destined to fail every time out. Heilman finished with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, allowing 38% of inherited runners to score.

One ugly season aside, Heilman has always been an effective reliever with the ability to spot a few starts. The former 1st-round pick is unquestionably talented, with a plus arm and stuff that jumps off the pages of the WHIFF charts:

Pitch..........MPH.......WHIFF.....InK%....SLG%....%tile (WHIFF)
Fastball..... 93.387.... 0.185....... 0.48....0.453.....80
Slider........ 84.155.... 0.481....... 0.42....0.195.....97
Change......83.713.....0.422....... 0.33....0.462.....90

Those are WHIFF-rate percentiles of 80, 97, and 90, respectively. It is very, very rare for any pitcher to feature their entire repertoire in the upper quartile, let alone have two pitches in the top 10 percent. Heilman's bread-and-butter has always been his fastball-changeup combo, but it would've been difficult to predict his slider (a pitch he rarely threw in previous seasons) developing into killer (.195 SLG% against). The .481 WHIFF rate puts it only a couple spots below the gold standard sliders of Brad Lidge (.509) and Joba Chamberlain (.506).

Breaking down Heilman's repertoire a little further, we see there are some blemishes beneath the swing-and-miss allure. Heilman is consistently pitching outside of the strikezone. The InK% (In-Strikezone rate) of each of his pitches is below league average. Usually, a leading indicator of a breakout season is a newfound killer pitch with a strong InK%. It's safe to say Heilman has the killer pitches, but he's depending on hackers to chase them, rather than attacking within the zone.

Heilman does, however, compare very favorably with a guy who is now his teammate, Ryan Dempster. Like Heilman, Dempster was in starter/reliever limbo heading into last year, carrying the same "unreliable" tag after a rather disastrous season in relief. Both throw essentially the same three pitches (Dempster throws a unique split-change hybrid), with similar WHIFF structure:

Ryan Dempster - 2007

Pitch..........MPH.......WHIFF.....InK%....SLG%....%tile (WHIFF)
Fastball..... 92.041.... 0.127.......0.48....0.519.....38
Slider........ 86.326.... 0.316.......0.47....0.356.....53
Splitter.......83.156.....0.520.......0.31....0.218.....99

Like Heilman's slider in '08, Dempster's splitter shot to the top in '07. He threw this pitch close to 600 times in '08, allowing him to neutralize LHBs over the course of 206.2 innings. Heilman has the same weapons to get hitters out from both sides of the plate if he gets a crack at starting this season.

It's up to the Cubs. Many baseball observers have noted Heilman's delivery--specifically, his high elbow inversion and near-sidearm angle--as major handicaps to becoming a successful innings-eater.

Heilman, at the very least, can be an adequate swingman. He's got the change of scenery he wanted, now we'll see about the results. WHIFF says his 2009 campaign is a real good bet to look more like his 2005-2007 seasons than the one he had in '08.

Posted by Tom Koch-Weser at 4:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (17)

A year ago, the Detroit Tigers were a preseason favorite to return to the World Series after adding Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in a trade with the Marlins. This spring they face a critical season, as failure could mean dismantling a team that looked to be a contender for at least a few years.

Last spring, Willis joined a young rotation that seemed to be a cornerstone for years to come, but Jeremy Bonderman hasn’t been the same since the 2006 World Series run. He’ll be returning from surgery to remove a rib linked to a blood clot. Nate Robertson had a dreadful season, and Willis had one that was worse. Even ace Justin Verlander had an off year.

What still looked like an up-and-coming rotation a year ago now is Verlander, Armando Galarraga, the one starter on the staff who made progress in 2008, Bonderman, newly acquired Edwin Jackson and Willis, Robertson or Zach Miner. Right now, the group looks more like a big question rather than the answer to building a contender.

Since 2006, when the Tigers lost a five-game World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, the offense has held up its end of the deal. The pitching staff isn’t trending in the right direction.

Tigers by Season, 2006-08
(AL rank in parentheses)

. . . . . . . . . 2006. . . . . . . .2007. . . . . . . .2008
Runs. . . . . . 822 (5). . . . . . 887 (2). . . . . . .821 (4)
HR. . . . . . . .203 (3). . . . . . 177 (6). . . . . . .200 (2)
OPS. . . . . . .777 (7). . . . . . .802 (3). . . . . . .784 (3)

Record. . . . 95-67 (3). . . . .88-74 (5t). . . . 74-88 (12)
ERA. . . . . . .3.84 (1). . . . . .4.57 (9). . . . . .4.90 (12)
Opp SLG. . . .405 (2). . . . . .427 (9). . . . . . .437 (13)

It’s remarkable a team’s outlook can change so much from one year to the next. A drop-off in the performance of the pitching staff was to be expected after a remarkable 2006 season in which Kenny Rogers was at his best and youngsters Verlander and Bonderman excelled. In 2008, however, there wasn’t a bounce back in the right direction.

What also makes 2009 such a critical year is the pending free agency of Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco. With Gary Sheffield near the end of the line, a year from now, the front office could be rebuilding around Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Gerald Laird and Brandon Inge.

There’s certainly enough offensive talent on the 2009 roster to run away with the American League Central. . . if the pitching staff could pitch more like it did in 2006. That seems unlikely. Edwin Jackson was the one addition to the rotation, and surprisingly the Tigers sat out the offseason closer bonanza. Brandon Lyon was signed on Saturday, probably to replace the retiring Todd Jones as the closer.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s been a slow, strange offseason, with dozens of free agents still unsigned. Even with spring training just four weeks off, numerous teams’ depth charts and rotations remain far from settled.

Most clubs, including a few contenders, lack five dependable starters, so it’s surprising to find several pitchers still awaiting deals at this juncture. None are front-line starters, most are league-average types, and the best of them come with some risk. All are looking for a big payday and the waiting game goes on.

Left-hander Andy Pettitte could provide the biggest return, and in light of his annual flirtation with retirement, is probably looking for just a one-year deal. He reportedly turned down a $10 million offer from the Yankees near the start of the new year, which would have been a substantial pay cut, so he’ll most likely command an eight-digit salary when a deal is struck. He’s worked at least 200 innings in each of the last four seasons, but he was 4-7 (5.35 ERA) in the second half of 2008 after winning 10 games before the break. Would he return to Houston and offer a hometown discount?

Another workhorse is right-hander Jon Garland, who has pitched more than 190 innings in each of the last seven seasons. He’s posted double-digit wins in each of those years, though with an ERA that has been near league average. Garland was 14-8 for the Angels last season, but posted a 4.90 ERA that was his highest since his rookie year in 2000. The Angels didn’t even use him in their four-game Division Series with Boston. Undoubtedly the 29-year-old veteran is looking for a multiyear package, but he may have to sign a one-year deal and look to have a better season in 2009.

The best of the lot has to be former Brewer Ben Sheets, but he comes with the most risk. In the last five seasons, the 30-year-old right-hander has missed substantial time for a viral infection, a torn back muscle, shoulder tendinitis and a middle-finger sprain. He was en route to his first 200-inning season since 2004 when he tore a muscle near his throwing elbow in late August. Sheets finished 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA that was his lowest since ’04, but he wasn’t available for Milwaukee’s first playoff appearance since 1982. Reportedly the Mets have been showing interest in recent days.

Then there’s Oliver Perez, another high-risk investment. The southpaw’s success each summer has hinged on the severity of his gopheritis. After going 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA for the Pirates in 2004, the 27-year-old Perez grooved too many longballs and posted ERAs of 5.85 and 6.55 the following two seasons. He turned things around with the Mets in 2007, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA. He wasn’t quite as effective last season, when he was 10-7 (4.22) but walked 105 batters in 194 innings. Reportedly the Mets are dangling a three-year deal worth close to $30 million, so a signing may be imminent.

Also available are Braden Looper, Randy Wolf and Odalis Perez. All three had decent seasons last year, but none is certain to build on his 2008 performance. There’s also former Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez, though his showing in 2008 suggests the end is near.

As is true with a majority of free-agent signings these days, the payoff is rarely worth the payout in the long run. As vital and in short supply as starting pitching is, however, it’s hard to understand how the likes of Pettitte, Garland, Sheets and the others have yet to find a home.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Hall of Fame vote of the nearly 575 eligible members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America will be announced Monday. The one sure thing appears to be leadoff man extraordinaire Rickey Henderson, who is making his first appearance on the ballot and could be a near-unanimous selection.

Others on the ballot are less certain to collect enough votes, including two former players who are nearing the end of their 15 years of eligibility with the writers. Jim Rice, who is making his 15th and final appearance on the writers’ ballot, seemed like a sure thing for much of his career. His raw numbers don’t seem to impress today’s writers, perhaps because of the offensive explosion of the 1990s.

Time’s also running out for Bert Blyleven, who was 287-250 (3.31 ERA) with 242 complete games over 22 big league seasons, many with mediocre teams. He also collected 60 career shutouts. Among major league pitchers over the last 75 years, only Warren Spahn (63), Tom Seaver (61) and Nolan Ryan (61) -- all Hall of Famers -- have more. Blyleven, who is in his 12th year of eligibility, threw a wicked curveball that numerous former major leaguers who faced him say was the best in the business.

Blyleven surfaced with the Twins in 1970 and won his first major league start, just two months after his 19th birthday. The 6-foot-3 right-hander proved durable, as he worked more than 275 innings in each of his first six seasons, exceeded 200 innings in 16 of 22 big league campaigns, and claimed his 287th and final win at age 41. He is one of only three major leaguers to win a game as a teenager and after turning 40.

Although there was only one 20-win season -- in 1973 for the 81-81 Twins -- Blyleven won 15 or more games in a season 10 times. His team had a winning record in only three of those 10 years. Blyleven was on course for a second 20-win campaign with Cleveland in 1984, when a broken bone in his right foot cost him at least four starts and the right-hander finished 19-7 for the 75-87-1 Tribe. His 2.87 ERA ranked third in the American League.

The 1984 Cy Young Award winner in the AL was reliever Willie Hernandez, who saved 32 games and posted a 1.92 ERA over 140.1 innings for the World Series champion Tigers. Perhaps a few more successful starts might have made the difference for Blyleven. The Orioles’ Mike Boddicker, at 20-11 with an AL-leading 2.79 ERA, was the league’s only 20-game winner in ‘84.

Blyleven still ranked 11th in wins during the 1970s with 148, and Vida Blue is the only one of the other 10 not in the Hall. Only Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton had more strikeouts in the '70s. In the 1980s, Blyleven was sixth in wins with 123 -- the top three were Jack Morris (162), Dave Stieb (140) and Bob Welch (137) -- and fourth in strikeouts behind Ryan, Fernando Valenzuela and Morris.

One knock on Blyleven’s Hall bid is that he didn’t win a Cy Young Award, about which the humorous pitcher-turned-broadcaster has quipped that even Cy Young didn’t win one. On the other hand, Blyleven won World Series titles with the 1979 Pirates and 1987 Twins.

With Uncle Charlie his best friend to the very end, Blyleven retired in 1992 with 3,701 strikeouts, then the third-most in major league history behind Hall of Famers Ryan (5,714) and Carlton (4,136). Blyleven has been passed since by Randy Johnson (4,789) and Roger Clemens (4,672) and ranks fifth all time. Blyleven is the only Hall-eligible player among the top 17 in all-time strikeouts who doesn't have a plaque in Cooperstown.

Missing out on 300 wins shouldn’t be an issue, as there are Hall of Fame pitchers who don’t meet that standard, and some of them were less talented than Blyleven.

Maybe not having 300 wins does work against Blyleven in a close vote, but the baseball writers should bury the milestone as a Hall standard. Winning 300 games was a standard that developed in the days of the four-man rotation. If you adjust it accordingly for the era of five-man rotations, today’s 300 is more like 240 wins. Greg Maddux’s career total of 355 is truly incredible.

Blyleven also worked in five-man rotations, except for his first few years in the majors, and posted 287 wins. He rarely pitched for an elite team, and a couple of years with a dominant club might have paved an easier path to the Hall.

A notorious prankster with a reputation for going to any length to make one happen, Blyleven would crawl under the dugout bench to light a teammate’s shoelaces on fire. His hot foot skills were legendary. Many of Blyleven’s pranks were far more elaborate, yet others as simple as when he pied then-Dodgers manager Tom Lasorda in the face around 1990.

Blyleven was just as likely to ignite a smile with a quip, a skill he still calls on regularly today. He awaits the Hall results from the writers for a 12th time on Monday, and he deserves the call. If it doesn’t work out, Blyleven, who was born in the Netherlands but came to the United States as a young boy, will deal with it in his usual good humor.

"I know I've got a lock on the Dutch Hall of Fame," he has been known to say.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Phillies ace and World Series MVP Cole Hamels has declined an invitation to pitch for Team USA in this spring’s World Baseball Classic. That’s the word from Team USA manager Davey Johnson Thursday.

It was probably a no-brainer for Hamels, who spent time on the disabled list during each of the four previous seasons before pitching a career-high 262.1 innings in 2008, regular season and playoffs combined. The 6-foot-3 left-hander, who turns 25 next week, posted 14 wins and a 3.09 ERA during the season, then went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five quality starts in the postseason.

On Friday, Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported there’s another equally important reason why Hamels will bypass the March tournament: “He has a precise preseason conditioning program and needs six weeks of spring training to get ready to pitch competitively. Participating in the WBC would disrupt his preparation.”

If he were to play in the WBC, Hamels probably would go the way of most pitchers who participated in the 2006 tourney. Only a few of the 25 major league starters who pitched in the inaugural event had ERAs lower than 4.00 at the end of the April. Nearly half had marks higher than 6.00, and even a few front-line starters struggled to stay on the good side of 5.00.

Padres ace Jake Peavy was 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA in five April starts that spring. He finished 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA in 2006, the only season in the last five years he’s posted an ERA higher than 3.00. Lefty ace Johan Santana, then with the Twins, was 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA in April, though he bounced back to have a typical year, going 19-6 (2.77 ERA).

Bartolo Colon was the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner that spring, after a big season with the Angels, but 2006 proved to be a disaster. He worked 14 innings over three starts for the Dominican Republic in the WBC in March -- the most by any pitcher in the tournament -- and was 1-5 (5.11) in a season cut short by a torn rotator cuff. Colon didn’t pitch in April and made only one start after the All-Star break.

April ERAs were also on the high side for Carlos Silva (10.31), who was pitching for the Twins in 2006, Freddy Garcia (5.86), then of the White Sox, and lefty Oliver Perez (7.53), pitching for the Pirates. Two Orioles, Rodrigo Lopez (6.81) and Daniel Cabrera (5.68), struggled to open the season, at a time they were promising members of the rotation. Neither had a good year. Santana is one of the rare slow starters who had a strong season.

That’s not to say pitching in the WBC caused Colon’s injury or will guarantee an off year, but there’s a cost to missing much of spring training to participate. The early struggles of many of the 2006 WBC pitchers didn’t surprise Gary Lucas, a left-hander who spent eight seasons in the majors and has been a pitching coach for 15. The issue isn't the number of innings worked in the WBC, he said, but being out of camp that long. The lost time can have a detrimental effect on a pitcher's mechanics, command and stamina as he faces the demands of a sixth-month season.

"We're routine-oriented people," Lucas said of his pitching brethren. "If you mess with that, the physical and mental preparation for a season is compromised. It's an extremely competitive work environment."

During a late-April interview in 2006, Lucas anticipated that most of the slow starters were on the brink of turning things around, and he proved correct. Most of them simply took longer to be fully prepared for the season, though a few went on to have off years.

The better pitchers, Lucas said, have a better understanding of how much time and work they need to prepare for a season. And that’s something Hamels, who sticks by an offseason regimen, apparently understands very well. He's made the right decision to skip the WBC.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The New York Yankees wasted little time in signing two of the most expensive free-agent pitchers on the market this winter.

Inking CC Sabathia to a $161 million contract gave the Yankees a stud at the top of their rebuilt rotation, which was a weakness in 2008 and was further depleted by Mike Mussina’s recent retirement. Then the Yankees threw $82.5 million at A.J. Burnett, who has great stuff but has battled injuries and has never had a Cy Young-type season. Maybe he’ll finally have the kind of year that would justify the big paycheck, but he’s pitching in New York now.

Whether it be injury, bad decision-making by the Yankees or the pressure of the big city, moving to New York hasn’t been a smart choice for the likes of Ed Whitson, Bob Shirley, Hideki Irabu, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa, to name a few. It would appear that Sabathia won’t find pitching in New York troubling, but it’ll be interesting to see how Burnett, the oft-injured right-hander, fares in the Bronx.

The price for this offseason’s acquisitions was steep -- the Yankees will pay Sabathia and Burnett an annual salary in the neighborhood of $40 million combined -- but that doesn’t mean they are done spending. Burnett’s signature has yet to be secured, as the team awaits results of his physical, but there are reports that GM Brian Cashman has turned his attention to free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira.

The 28-year-old switch-hitter, who has delivered at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs in each of the last five seasons, will get one of the biggest offseason payoffs for a position player and reportedly has been offered deals for as many as eight years. Teixeira has been the prime target of the Boston Red Sox, leaving baseball fans to wonder if the Yankees are prepared to spend even more or are mostly messing with their division rival.

Even after trading for Nick Swisher and his multiyear contract in November, could the Yankees possibly have it in their budget to sign Teixeira or Manny Ramirez? It may come as a surprise, but according to Bryan Hoch of mlb.com, the Yankees still have not exceeded their 2008 payroll by adding Swisher, Sabathia and Burnett. It didn’t matter that New York may have offered Sabathia as much as $61 million more than any other club, as Hoch states that “the Yankees are still operating within the approximately $86 million they shed from '08 in Mike Mussina, (Jason) Giambi, Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu, Ivan Rodriguez and more.”

Much of the money shed from last year’s payroll was poorly spent, but the Yankees won’t be shy committing most or all of those millions to new acquisitions. Reportedly they are close to adding Mike Cameron and his $10 million salary in a trade that would send youngster Melky Cabrera to Milwaukee. Igawa and Milwaukee’s Bill Hall, who would serve as an expensive utilityman for New York, may also be moved in the deal. At the same, Cashman is believed to be making a last-ditch effort to get Andy Pettitte to re-up for roughly $10 million for 2009.

Seeing the Yankees jump at another of the top players on the market may seem far-fetched, but Hoch suggests the money is there. Suddenly the New York rotation of Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, Burnett and Joba Chamberlain looks much better -- at least on paper -- but the fate of the 2008 Yankees is a reminder that money spent and what looks good on paper doesn’t count for a thing when the games begin.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There’s a glut of closers on the market this offseason, and along with CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, they are center stage at the winter meetings that kicked off in Las Vegas today.

The free agents include arguably the best young closer in the game, Francisco Rodriguez, as well as the all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman. The other available closers include Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Chad Cordero and Brandon Lyon, and a few others -- Huston Street, Jose Valverde and J.J. Putz -- have been dangled in trade talks since the end of the season.

The laws of supply and demand suggest not all of the free agents are going to get top dollar, and that’s even more apparent when you consider that only the Mets and Angels appear willing to offer a multiyear deal that pays as much as $10 million annually for a free-agent closer.

The Mets, who will be without Billy Wagner for all of 2009 following his Tommy John surgery, have told the veteran southpaw that they will not pick up the option on his contract for 2010. As a result, New York i