If beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cincinnati back in September didn’t convince you the Cincinnati Bengals are for real, maybe you’re a believer now.

On Sunday, in a flurry of field goals, the Bengals defeated the Super Bowl champions in Pittsburgh, 18-12, to sweep the season series for the first time since 1998.

That’s right: in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers were 17-3 since the start of the 2007 season before Sunday’s showdown (19-4 if you include playoffs). Pittsburgh’s loss to the Bengals was the first at home to a divisional foe since both the Bengals and Ravens beat the Steelers at Heinz Field during the 2006 campaign.

Equally remarkable is Cincinnati’s series sweep. The Bengals and Steelers have been in the same division since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. In those 40 seasons together, Cincinnati has executed just eight sweeps. The Steelers have secured 15 sweeps, and the two teams split the other 16 two-game series. In 1982, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh met only once because of a labor dispute that shortened the schedule to nine games -- and the Steelers won that matchup.

With the win in Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Bengals improved to 4-0 on the road this season. Throw in a 14-0 shutout of the Browns in the final road game of the 2008 season, and the Bengals have won their last five contests away from Paul Brown Stadium.

It’s the first time in franchise history that the Bengals have won five straight road games. What makes the winning streak even more remarkable is Cincinnati’s 2-15 road record prior to the victory in Cleveland last December.

It’ll take that kind of extraordinary achievement and a few more surprises by the Bengals to ride their current success to their first Super Bowl appearance in 21 years. Last year’s Arizona Cardinals may provide inspiration to this year’s Bengals.

To their credit, the Bengals have shown they can beat the current champs, even in Pittsburgh, but a trip to the big game in February may mean a stop in Indianapolis and New England along the way.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 10:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the NFL’s worst road teams for years. Since the franchise moved to Arizona in 1988, it has a 47-125 regular-season record away from home. Even during their run to the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history last year, the Cardinals were 3-5 on the road during the regular season.

Going into the 2009 season, the Arizona-era Cardinals had never won more than two consecutive road contests. Perhaps the sign of a road turnaround came in Arizona’s 2008 divisional playoff game in Carolina last January, when the Cardinals defeated the Panthers to advance to the NFC championship game.

When the Cardinals throttled the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday, 41-21, it was their fifth straight road win going back to that playoff victory at Carolina. They have gone 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 123-58 en route to victories over the Jaguars, Seahawks, Giants and Bears.

It’s been a long time since the Cardinals have experienced that kind of road success. They haven’t won three road games in a row since 1987, their final year in St. Louis, and the last four-game winning streak was in 1982. Neil Lomax quarterbacked those St. Louis teams.

You have to go back to 1975 to find the last time the Cardinals pulled off five consecutive wins away from home, including playoffs. That streak came in the Jim Hart era.

Now if only the 2009 Cardinals could do something about that 1-3 record at home.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Jimmy Buffett took the stage for a three-song mini-concert at Dolphin Stadium on Friday, when the singer-songwriter and the Miami Dolphins announced they had negotiated a creative business deal.

Wait one second: that Parrothead celebration actually took place at LandShark Stadium. The park is now named for a lager that Buffett developed under his Margaritaville Brewing Label.

It’s not your typical multimillion-dollar licensing agreement. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that two different sources say Buffett isn’t paying any kind of fee for the naming rights. Instead, he reportedly will compensate Dolphins president Stephen Ross by making public appearances, working other joint promotions and maybe making some live performances.

The agreement is different in another way, too. A few of the baseball naming-rights contracts have spawned multiple names as those corporate brands were gobbled up by other corporate brands over the length of a multiyear deal. This one lasts only through the 2009 NFL season, after which a long-term agreement is likely to be negotiated.

Considering next February’s Super Bowl will be staged at the Stadium formally known as LandShark, Buffett is likely to be priced out of the bargaining if the place isn’t called Dolphin Stadium one last time for the big game.

What’s the point of the agreement between Ross and Buffett? The Dolphins want to create a new image of the NFL experience in their building. Create a new atmosphere of fun with a Margaritaville-themed area, new tailgate spots for fans, and perhaps an occasional performance by the brewmeister.

So, when Ross noted that the Dolphins would be “associated with Jimmy Buffett forever” during the announcement of the months-long agreement, there was some truth to what initially seemed like a silly statement. Ross also noted that football fans can stay home and watch games on HDTV with all kinds of camera angles and replays, and it’s time to spice up the live experience.

It’s that mentality that tends to drive this sports fan crazy. Isn’t the product good enough? Ross is probably right, though I don’t go to a baseball game to hear the entire history of rock-n-roll or watch people do stupid stuff on the field or the scoreboard.

On the other hand, this Buffett-Ross agreement is something that the Marlins would seem to need more than the history-rich Dolphins. I enjoy the baseball atmosphere there because there seems to be less bombardment, but it can’t be good for business when you aren’t able to draw 20,000 fans for either of last week’s Braves-Marlins showdowns. The Marlins are hoping their new stadium will spark the kind of interest they have almost never seen in their history.

With Friday’s celebration in Miami, hockey won’t be the only sport with a Shark Tank. The Marlins inherit a new name for their ballpark, at least for the remainder of the season. It was Dolphin Stadium when they departed on a road trip to Denver and Milwaukee last week. They come home to LandShark Stadium on Friday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Most of the press coverage surrounding the Arizona Cardinals the last two weeks has focused on Kurt Warner, and undoubtedly his performance will be critical to how successful the Cardinals are in today’s game.

If Warner on Sunday is as accurate throwing the ball and as effective at quick decision-making as he’s been in Arizona’s last four games, it may be difficult for the Pittsburgh Steelers to keep the ball out of the hands of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

That may be especially true of Fitzgerald, who, with Warner’s help, has already accumulated more yards in a single postseason than any receiver since the NFL-AFL merger.

Most Postseason Receiving Yards, Single Season – Since 1970

Larry Fitzgerald, 2008 Ari. . . 419
Jerry Rice, 1988 SF. . . . . . . 409
Steve Smith, 2003 Car. . . . . .404
Charlie Brown, 1983 Was. . . .401
Anthony Carter, 1987 Min. . .391

With Warner at his best in recent weeks, Fitzgerald has been nearly impossible to defend. Boldin, who made some noise two weeks ago with a sideline confrontation with offensive coordinator Todd Haley and by skipping the team’s postgame celebration, is an equally dangerous threat who averages more receptions and receiving yards per game than anyone in the history of the league who has played at least 50 regular-season games.

Arizona RB Edgerrin James has shown an ability to find daylight against Pittsburgh, averaging 79.8 yards per game and nearly four yards a carry in three career appearances against the reigning AFC champions. It will go a long way for Arizona if James can find some running room and keep the Steelers honest on the defensive side. That could only help Warner, who is riding the crest of a performance surge that began in November 2007.

When he’s at his best, Warner has been unbeatable, whether it’s 1999 or 2008. And for the Arizona Cardinals, who have been beatable for more than 60 years, the spot-on quarterback and his dangerous wideout threats should make for a super surprise on Sunday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In terms of their postseason history, Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger have some things in common, and one of them is success. Both directed their team to a Super Bowl title in their second NFL season.

Warner, in his first year as a starting quarterback in 1999, led the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl victory over the Tennessee Titans. He returned to the title game two years later, when the Rams lost to the New England Patriots on a last-second, 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri.

The 37-year-old veteran has waited seven years for another chance at a league championship, this time with the underdog Arizona Cardinals, and he goes into Sunday’s game with one of the best postseason records among quarterbacks with at least seven playoff starts.

Best Record in Postseason, Starting Quarterbacks
(minimum 7 starts)

Bart Starr. . . . . . . . . 9-1. . . .900
Tom Brady. . . . . . . . 14-3. . . .824
Kurt Warner. . . . . . . 8-2. . . .800
Jim Plunkett. . . . . . . 8-2. . . .800
Ben Roethlisberger. . 7-2. . . .778

Pittsburgh’s starter on Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger, gets a chance to make it two-for-two in the Super Bowl in just his fifth NFL season. Three years ago, Roethlisberger and the Steelers won three playoff games on the road before defeating the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. The 26-year-old quarterback has already played in the AFC Championship game three times, and like Warner, has an impressive postseason record.

Currently Roethlisberger has seven playoff victories in five seasons, and in NFL history, only Tom Brady (9) has had more in his first five years in the league. Roethlisberger can’t catch Brady, though an eighth playoff victory on Sunday would push him ahead of Warner on the QB leader board for best postseason records.

With a Steelers victory, Roethlisberger would join Brady as the only quarterback to win two Super Bowls by age 26. Warner, on the other hand, was 27 when he made his NFL debut.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Arizona QB Kurt Warner may have more lives than your typical neighborhood alley cat. He didn’t start for the University of Northern Iowa until his senior season and was cut quickly by the Green Bay Packers in his only invite to a pro camp in 1994. Still looking for an NFL opportunity, Warner signed on with the Arena Football League in 1995.

After leading the Iowa Barnstormers to consecutive Arena Bowl appearances, Warner signed with the St. Louis Rams for the 1998 season, but first went off and played with NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals. He led NFL Europe in passing yards and touchdowns, then served as the Rams’ backup that fall.

Two NFL MVP awards followed, as well as a victory over Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV nine years ago. It wasn’t long, though, before injuries compromised Warner's career and he had to compete for starting jobs. He was signed by the New York Giants to start before the 2004 season, in order to give draftee Eli Manning time to acclimate to the pro game. Warner stumbled and Manning took over before the season was over, and it appeared the end was near for the veteran.

Warner signed with Arizona in 2005, but his long-term future as a starter was far from secure. Nearly four years later, Warner, now 37, has prevailed over Matt Leinart, the 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft. On Sunday, he leads the surprising Arizona Cardinals -- the NFL franchise with the most losses over the last 24 seasons -- against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII.

The veteran quarterback seemed to find new life once again a little more than a year ago. Leinart was the starter when the 2007 season began, but he struggled and suffered a season-ending collarbone injury in Week 5. Warner took over, though the Cardinals lost his first three starts. His days as an NFL starter appeared numbered once again, but he's turned back the clock.

Beginning with Arizona’s 31-21 victory over the Detroit Lions on Nov. 11, 2007, Warner has produced some of the finest numbers by a starting quarterback.

Warner since November 11, 2007 (with NFL ranks)
(including postseason)

Attempts. . . . . . . . . . . .999. .(1st)
Completions. . . . . . . . . 661. .(1st)
Pass Yards. . . . . . . . . 7,715. .(1st)
TD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59. .(1st)
25+ Yard Completions. . . 55. .(T-1st, Philip Rivers)
Passer Rating. . . . . . . .97.4. .(2nd, minimum 250 attempts)
Completion Pct. . . . . . 66.2. .(3rd, minimum 250 attempts)

Warner seems to be at the peak of his most recent professional rebirth. Although the Cardinals lost four of their last six regular-season games, Warner has been at his best since Arizona’s season finale, a 34-21 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Warner in Last 4 Games

Date. . . . . Opp. . . . .Att. . . . Cmp. . . .Pct. . . . TD. . .Int. . . . Rate
12/18. . . . .Sea. . . . . 30. . . . . 19. . . . .63.3. . . . 4. . . . 1. . . . 117.1
01/03. . . . .Atl. . . . . .32. . . . . 19. . . . .59.4. . . . 2. . . . 1. . . . . 94.7
01/10. . . . Car. . . . . .32. . . . . 21. . . . .65.6. . . . 2. . . . 1. . . . . 93.2
01/17. . . . Phi. . . . . .28. . . . . 21. . . . .75.0. . . . 4. . . . 0. . . . 145.7

Total. . . . . 4-0. . . . 122. . . . . 80. . . . . 65.6. . . 12. . . . 3. . . . 114.5

Warner has two terrific targets in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. If everyone’s on the same page Sunday, Warner could make the improbable climb to the top once again.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Until a week or two ago, the Chicago Cubs seemed like a heavy favorite to win a World Series before the Arizona Cardinals even appeared in a Super Bowl. Now the resurgent Cardinals are in the big game, despite losing four of their last six regular-season games before upending Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia in the playoffs.

That’s not to say Arizona will win Super Bowl XLIII. On Sunday they face the AFC champion Steelers, in pursuit of an unprecedented sixth Super Bowl victory and a good bet to make it happen.

Still, the Cardinals have moved far closer to ending their title-free drought than the 2008 Cubs, who won the National League Central and fell flat in their first-round matchup with the Dodgers in October. Of course, the transplanted Chicago-St. Louis-Arizona Cards still have a chance to do what once seemed unthinkable: put a fork in the second-longest stretch of franchise futility in the four major sports.

Longest Active Championship Drought in 4 Major Sports

MLB. . .Chicago Cubs. . . . . . . 1908
NFL. . .Arizona Cardinals. . . . . 1947. . . . (Chicago Cardinals)
NBA. . .Sacramento Kings. . . . 1950-51. . .(Rochester Royals)
NHL. . .Chicago Blackhawks. . .1960-61

Since the Chicago Cardinals claimed the NFL championship in 1947, another 23 NFL franchises have won the title. In the four major sports combined, 78 teams have won championships since the 1947 Cardinals made history.

Those 78 teams include two other franchises that have waited a long time to win it all again: the NBA's 1950-51 Rochester Royals, today's Sacramento Kings, and the 1960-61 Chicago Blackhawks.

If Arizona’s emergence had followed closely on the heels of the Red Sox and White Sox ending decades-long droughts by winning back-to-back World Series a few years ago, maybe it would feel more like it’s the Cardinals’ time.

Then again, it’s already been a year of landmarks for these Cardinals. They’ve secured the franchise’s first winning record since 1998, as well as its first postseason appearance since then. The Cards also claimed their first division title since 1975, and hosted their first playoff game since 1947. With a big day from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, just maybe another franchise landmark will be reached on Super Bowl Sunday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

A wild-card club winning three road games en route to the Super Bowl isn’t altogether unusual since the NFL moved to eight divisions in 2002.

Wild-card teams are seeded fifth and sixth in this format, and since the change, two of them have won the NFL title game in six seasons. One was the 2005 Steelers, who went 11-5 and won at Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver before defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 40. The other was last year’s New York Giants. They finished a distant second to Dallas in the NFC East, lost twice to the Cowboys in the regular season, but won at Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay before upending the defending champion New England Patriots for the title.

Recent wild-card success might suggest that the road to Super Bowl 43 isn’t a difficult one for a pair of No. 6 seeds playing on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles. A case could be made that being a wild-card team is no more of an obstacle than being a No. 1 seed is an advantage -- ask the Titans and Giants about that -- but reaching the Super Bowl as a No. 5 or 6 seed still is a noteworthy accomplishment.

Prior to the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants, only one other fifth or sixth seed has reached the championship game.

Lowest Seeded Teams to Reach Super Bowl, All-Time
(only teams to win 3 road games in a postseason)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . Seed. . . . . . SB Result
1985 Patriots. . . . . 5. . . . . . . . . Lost
2005 Steelers. . . . .6. . . . . . . . . Won
2007 Giants. . . . . . 5. . . . . . . . . Won

The third team was the 1985 Patriots, who topped an 11-5 season by beating the Jets, Raiders and Dolphins on the road before getting roughed up by the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl 20.

This postseason has already had its share of surprises, with both No. 1 seeds bounced by No. 6 seeds last week. Now, the Ravens and Eagles could make history with wins on Sunday, setting up the first Super Bowl matchup of teams that have been seeded fifth or lower going into the playoffs.

A Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl is a strong possibility, as the still-standing, sixth-seeded clubs have been at their best for an extended period.

The Ravens are on an 11-2 surge that began with a convincing victory over Miami on Oct. 19, and the defense has allowed opponents an average of just 13.5 points per game in this span. Baltimore has given up just 19 points in playoff wins over the Dolphins and Titans.

The Eagles were sputtering near midseason and benched starting QB Donovan McNabb during a Week 12 shellacking by the Ravens. With two losses and a tie to the bumbling Bengals in their last three games, the Eagles had fallen to 5-5-1. McNabb returned and rebounded, and his team beat both the Giants and Cowboys in the final four weeks to secure the final NFC playoff berth. The Eagles have won six of their last seven games going into Sunday’s NFC Championship game with Arizona.

Wins by both the Ravens and Eagles on Sunday not only would set up an unprecedented Super Bowl matchup, but also would create a frenzy among East Coast football fans living between New York and Washington D.C. Philadelphia and Baltimore are separated by just 100 miles, a short jaunt down I-95.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game on Sunday, how inappropriate is it that Pittsburgh's mayor is named Luke Ravenstahl?

Inappropriate enough that the mayor has temporarily changed his name to Luke Steelerstahl for the week. He went so far as to make an appearance at the Allegheny County Department of Court Records to sign the paperwork, though he didn't follow through on the process because of the police background check and other time-consuming elements to it.

The unofficial change will have to be good enough. After all, the mayor putting his name in limbo could open the door to legal challenges of such acts as vetoes of municipal legislation.

"You'd have to ask the legal folks that question," Ravenstahl-turned-Steelerstahl told Rich Lord of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "I guess there's no truth to the rumor, either, that [Council President] Doug Shields came down and applied to be Luke Ravenstahl now that I've given up my name."

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)

After Donovan McNabb was benched and the Philadelphia Eagles throttled by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, the 5-5-1 Eagles seemed to have nothing to look forward to but planning for 2009.

Kevin Kolb, McNabb’s successor in a 36-7 loss, clearly wasn’t ready for the gig. So the 32-year-old veteran returned the next week to face the visiting Arizona Cardinals, who loom as next week’s opponent in the NFC Championship game. McNabb responded by throwing four TD passes in a convincing 48-20 victory on Thanksgiving.

McNabb directed the Eagles to a 20-14 must win over the defending champion Giants in Week 14. In the regular-season finale, facing the Cowboys for the final playoff berth, the quarterback threw for two scores in a 44-6 romp over another division rival. Now the Eagles see the Giants again after they defeated the Vikings in last week’s wild-card game, 26-14.

Sunday’s victory gave the Eagles their fifth win in the last six games. Both McNabb and the team have been better since his benching.

McNabb, Before & After Benching in Week 12

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .TD. . . Int. . . . .CmpPct. . .Rating. . . . . .Tm Rec
Before Benching. . . . . 14. . . 10. . . . . . .58.8. . . . 81.1. . . . . . . .5-5-1
After Benching*. . . . . .10. . . . 2. . . . . . .64.9. . . . 97.7. . . . . . . .5-1

*includes wild-card playoff win over Minnesota

Playing the Eagles right now is no more appetizing than facing the Baltimore Ravens, who have won nine of their last 11 after bumping off the Titans, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, on Saturday.

The Eagles and Ravens may be on course for a rematch of the game that briefly cost McNabb his job, though a third meeting with the Giants stands in the way. Playing at the Meadowlands hasn’t been a problem for McNabb, who has succeeded on the road against the Giants in recent seasons. In his last five games there, all in the regular season, the Eagles are 4-1.

Sunday marks McNabb’s second playoff matchup with New York. The first was a 20-10 loss to the Kerry Collins-led Giants in the 2000 playoffs, also at the Meadowlands.

Those Giants lost to the Ravens in the Super Bowl, and this year’s Ravens are a good bet to take the field for Super Bowl XLIII. If McNabb is at his best Sunday, the Eagles move one step closer to that rematch.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The 13-3 Tennessee Titans posted the NFL’s best record in 2008, and they host the Baltimore Ravens in their playoff opener Saturday after a week off.

Obviously being a No. 1 seed is not a stamped ticket to the Super Bowl, and that has been especially true in the AFC of late. In the last four seasons, the AFC’s top dog has claimed the conference championship only once. That was a year ago, when the New England Patriots went 16-0 and won twice in the postseason before falling to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

In 2004, the Pittsburgh Steelers finished 15-1 and didn’t lose after Week 2 until they were upended by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game, 41-27. The Patriots went on to win their second of three Super Bowls in a four-year span.

The following season, the Indianapolis Colts topped the conference at 14-2, but the wild-card Steelers rebounded from their early playoff exit in 2004 to defeat the Colts in their first playoff game. The Steelers already had beaten Cincinnati on the road in the wild-card round, then won at Indianapolis and Denver before beating Seattle in the Super Bowl.

In 2006, the San Diego Chargers went 14-2 as the AFC’s No. 1 team, but lost their first playoff game to the 12-4 Patriots, 24-21, on a last-minute field goal by New England’s Stephen Gostkowski. Following the Steelers’ lead a year earlier, the AFC South champion Colts gained revenge for their quick exit in 2005 by defeating the Patriots and the Bears for the NFL championship.

The numbers may suggest that 2009 could be an even better year for the Titans, but they still stand a chance to ride home-field advantage to the Super Bowl this January. History doesn’t stand in Tennessee’s way. The question is whether the Titans are ready for win-or-go-home football after coasting into the playoffs. After winning their first 10 games of the season, they split their final six.

The Titans were allowing just 13.1 points per game when the New York Jets ended their perfect season with a 34-13 win in Week 12. Tennessee also lost a defensive struggle at Houston three weeks ago, 13-12, and was blanked in a meaningless season finale in Indianapolis, 23-0.

The one strong showing by the Titans in this stretch was a 31-14 victory over the second-seeded Steelers in Week 16, which secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

“This was not a statement game by no means,” Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher said after the win. “It was a momentum game. We needed to build momentum for the playoffs and the bye week by playing well and winning the game.”

If either team has momentum going its way on Sunday, it would have to be Baltimore. After a 2-3 start to the season, the Ravens have won nine of their final 11 games, outscoring opponents by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. They have allowed just 10.7 points per game over the last six weeks, during which the Ravens have won five of six. Then in last week’s wild-card matchup, they shut down the Miami Dolphins, winners of nine of their last 10 games, 27-9.

The Ravens’ strong finish draws comparisons to the 2000 team, which won its last seven regular-season games before marching on to the franchise’s only Super Bowl crown. In that postseason, the Ravens won a wild-card affair with Denver before moving on to Tennessee. It was the last time the Titans played a playoff game as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and the Ravens came away with a 24-10 victory.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After winning their first postseason game in a decade last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals travel cross-country to face the Carolina Panthers Saturday night. Traversing the continent hasn’t worked for the NFC West champs, who have lost all five games they played in the Eastern Time zone in 2008.

Arizona’s poor showing on the East Coast isn’t a new phenomenon. STATS’ Los Angeles-based research group discovered the Cardinals have lost 14 of their last 15 games played in the Eastern Time zone, dating to November 2004. The sole win came in Cincinnati last season -- in the last of four East Coast appearances on Nov. 18.

The sample size isn’t large, but large enough to figure the disproportionate numbers have some significance. Explaining their meaning, though, requires some imagination.

One thing that’s hard to miss is how soundly the Cardinals were beaten in three of those East Coast games this season.

The New York Jets throttled the Cardinals at the Meadowlands on Sept. 28, scoring 34 second-quarter points for a 34-0 halftime lead. Brett Favre tied Joe Namath’s franchise record with six TD passes in a 56-35 decision. A month later on Thanksgiving Day, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb returned from a benching the week before to throw four TD passes in Philadelphia’s 48-20 victory. On Dec. 21, the New England Patriots whipped the Cards, 47-7, on a snow-covered field in Foxborough.

The closest of the five East Coast games was Arizona’s 27-23 loss to Carolina on Oct. 26. Cards QB Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns, but the Panthers held on for the win. It was a strong showing by the Cardinals, who won’t have to deal with blowing snow and cold temperatures in Charlotte.

The weather probably won’t be a factor, but whatever else might play a role in Arizona’s recent East Coast struggles -- the long flight, living life three hours earlier than usual, whatever -- is beyond simple explanation.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, who square off in Sunday’s second wild-card game, have a lot in common this time of year.

If history plays out as it has the last 47 years, neither the Eagles nor the Vikings will win their last game of the season once again. Philadelphia hasn’t won an NFL title since 1960, and Minnesota has never won a league championship or Super Bowl since joining the NFL in 1961.

Only two current NFL teams have gone longer than 47 seasons without a league crown: the Detroit Lions, who have a title-free run of 51 years, and the Arizona Cardinals, who have gone 60 years since their last NFL championship. Like the Eagles and Vikings, the Cardinals still have a chance to end their futility streak in 2008, after defeating the Atlanta Falcons in a wild-card game on Saturday.

The Lions and Cardinals have struggled for decades, but more has been expected from the Eagles and Vikes. They’ve been contenders for long periods of time, but winning the Big One has escaped them. Among all NFL clubs since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, no team has won more regular-season games than the Eagles and Vikes without winning a Super Bowl.

Most Regular-Season Wins, 1970-2008, With No Super Bowl Win

Vikings. . . . . . . .343
Eagles. . . . . . . . 304
Chiefs. . . . . . . . 294
Oilers/Titans. . . .293

In the last decade, no team has more regular-season wins without a Super Bowl victory than the Eagles (92). In those 10 seasons, which include 2008, the Eagles and Vikings have combined to play in 11 postseasons but have just one Super Bowl appearance to show for it: Philadelphia’s 24-21 loss to New England in Super Bowl 39. It marked the second Super Bowl defeat for the Eagles. The Vikings have lost four times in the championship game, most recently 31 years ago in Super Bowl 11.

Heading into Sunday’s showdown, the Eagles and Vikings have one other thing in common. They have a history of recent success in playoff openers. Philadelphia, with seven postseason appearances in the last decade, has the longest active winning streak in playoff openers. Minnesota, winner of four playoff berths in the last 10 years, has been nearly as successful in the first game.

Active Streaks – Most Consecutive Wins in Playoff Openers

Eagles. . . . . 6
Patriots. . . . 6
Vikings. . . . .5

Eagles coach Andy Reid hasn’t lost a playoff opener in his 10-year tenure. The last time the two teams lost the first game of a postseason was 1996.

One of those streaks will end on Sunday, with the winner still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. For what it's worth, the Eagles have won both postseason meetings between the two teams -- in 1981 and 2005.

It may appear that neither team has a realistic chance to appear in this year’s Super Bowl, but both the Eagles and Vikings have lost just once in the last five weeks. A win on Sunday might go a long way for one of these hard-luck franchises.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

No preseason forecaster could have predicted a 2008 playoff showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, but it’s now underway in suburban Phoenix.

The 9-7 Cardinals claimed a division title in the soft NFC West behind seasoned veteran QB Kurt Warner. The Falcons were coming off a 4-12 campaign in 2007 and went with rookie Matt Ryan, who was the third overall pick in last summer’s draft.

The Falcons also overcame the abrupt resignation of coach Bobby Petrino late in the 2007 season, yet were a surprising 11-5 under Mike Smith. Certainly Ryan made life easier for the new man. The Boston College pick had a terrific season, posting first-year numbers that rank among the best by a rookie quarterback and earned him AP offensive rookie of the year honors. In making Michael Vick an afterthought, Ryan also fared well compared to his NFL peers in 2008.

Matt Ryan in 2008, with League Rank

ComPct. . . . .61.1. . . . 17th
Pass Yds. . . .3,440. . . . 13th
TD Passes. . . .16. . . . . 16th
Rating. . . . . 87.7. . . . .11th

From the start of the season, Ryan impressed Smith and his teammates with his determination and poise. He has been quoted saying he doesn’t feel like a rookie, and he certainly hasn’t played like one. He’s earned the nickname “Matty Ice” for his performance under pressure.

"He always wants more," Smith said of Ryan to Bob McManaman of The Arizona Republic. "We started the season where he was managing the offense and now we're in a different place and in a different situation. We've been able to do a lot more than we anticipated because of his maturation."

The Falcons are in a much different situation Saturday, playing their first playoff game in four years. Ryan, who hasn’t played as well the last three games, now faces the pressure of the postseason for the first time.

Win or lose on Saturday, Ryan and Baltimore QB Joe Flacco share the honor of being the first rookies in NFL history to start a full 16-game slate and lead their teams into the playoffs.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Brett Favre looked like the answer when the New York Jets improved to 8-3 by sticking the Tennessee Titans with their first loss of the season on Nov. 23. After a convincing 34-13 road victory over the Titans, the Jets had a five-game winning, and the offense was averaging 38.3 points per game over the three most recent wins.

Today Favre is a big offseason question mark once again, after his Jets lost four of their last five games to finish 9-7. They held down the top spot in the AFC East after beating Tennessee, but handed the Miami Dolphins the division title in Sunday’s 24-17 home loss and missed out on a wild-card berth as well.

The Jets quarterback threw for just two touchdowns during the five-game skid that closed out a disappointing season and cost head coach Eric Mangini his job on Monday. Favre was torched for nine interceptions in those five games, one of which was run back 25 yards for a score by Miami’s Phillip Merling Sunday. Favre was picked off three times by the Dolphins.

In recent weeks, Favre has hinted that his right shoulder isn’t right. He will have an MRI exam on the shoulder Monday, which the quarterback says will play a role in deciding whether he will return to the Jets in 2009.

Undoubtedly, the ailing shoulder played a role in Favre’s recent struggles. On the other hand, the future Hall of Famer’s troubles down the stretch involve more than just his shoulder. Over the last four seasons, whether influenced by injury or not, it appears Favre has worn down in December.

Favre Passing by Month, 2005-2008

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .TD/INT. . . . . . . . . . .Rating
September . . . . . . . . 31/16. . . . . . . . . . . . 92.9
October. . . . . . . . . . 20/19. . . . . . . . . . . . 81.1
November. . . . . . . . . 24/18. . . . . . . . . . . . 85.8
December. . . . . . . . . 12/30. . . . . . . . . . . . 60.5

In the month of December since 2005, Favre has thrown just 12 TD passes and 30 interceptions, by far the most among NFL quarterbacks during this span. Next on the list is Tony Romo (19), another quarterback directing a team that expected to go deep into the playoffs but didn’t earn a postseason berth.

A month ago, all the elements seemed to be in place for the Jets, who have alternated 10-6 seasons with 4-12 seasons the last four years. It was their turn to go 10-6, and 11 or 12 wins seemed entirely possible with Denver, San Francisco and Seattle on the schedule over the final five weeks.

The Jets fell to all three teams and the collapse was complete with Sunday’s loss to the AFC East champion Dolphins. Mangini is gone. Favre, who surpassed 65,000 passing yards but absorbed his 100th regular-season loss as a starter on Sunday, may be next.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A little more than an hour ago, the Minnesota Vikings claimed the NFC North title by defeating the defending Super Bowl champions on a last-second, 50-yard field goal from Ryan Longwell, and the Houston Texans pulled off the upset to eliminate the Chicago Bears from the playoff picture.

The biggest upset of a contender so far today took place in Florida, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coughed up a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead at home and were bumped from a wild-card berth by the 5-11 Oakland Raiders.

The losses by the Bears and Buccaneers, both of whom fell to 9-7, left two NFC clubs in line for the final playoff spot in the conference. They are the 9-6 Dallas Cowboys and the 8-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who happen to be squaring off in a late game Sunday, which Philadelphia leads, 17-3, late in the second quarter.

In essence, the game is an early playoff encounter, with the winner moving on and the loser going home -- a week before the postseason kicks off.

What could be more fitting, as having at least one of the two NFC East powerhouses in the playoffs has been the norm for years? In 24 of 39 seasons since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 -- including this year -- either the Cowboys or Eagles have reached the playoffs. In nine other seasons, both clubs made it, leaving only six postseasons in 39 years that neither team participated.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series between the two clubs, going 53-42 against Philadelphia since joining the NFL in 1960, and they have won two of the three playoff matchups between them. The Eagles have won 12 of the last 17 contests in the series, though, including the last five December games they've played against Dallas, and they have the two-touchdown edge with a little more than 30 minutes to play.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

All the Miami Dolphins have to do to reach the playoffs is beat the New York Jets on Sunday. The 10-5 Dolphins may be tied with the New England Patriots for the AFC East lead going into Week 17, but they have the tiebreaker and can complete the most remarkable turnaround ever by a team coming off a 1-15 season.

After the Dolphins lost 15 of 16 a year ago, owner Wayne Huizenga coaxed Bill Parcells to Miami, and the new man in charge immediately fired first-year head coach Cam Cameron. By mid-January, Parcells had hired Jeff Ireland as his general manager and Dallas assistant head coach Tony Sparano to run the team on the field. By the time training camp opened, there were 45 new players among Sparano’s initial 81-man roster

Miami’s fifth head coach in five seasons has won with Chad Pennington under center, after his summer release by New York to make room for Brett Favre. Now Pennington and Favre share the field in an all-important season finale.

The 9-6 Jets face longer odds, but they are not eliminated from playoff contention. Even after losing three of their last four games, the Jets would win the AFC East if they beat Miami and New England falls in Buffalo, resulting in three 10-6 teams at the top of the division. If the Patriots win, the Jets can claim the final wild-card spot in the AFC with a victory and a Jacksonville win over the 10-5 Ravens.

Despite New York’s acquisition of Favre, the future Hall of Famer, the big story in the division is Miami. The highly animated Dolphins coach has backed up his fire with solid coaching, and the team is in line to be the first team to earn a postseason berth after going 1-15 the previous season.

NFL Teams Finishing 1-15 – All-Time

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .W-L in Next Season
1980 Saints. . . . . . . . . 4-12
1989 Cowboys. . . . . . . 7- 9
1990 Patriots. . . . . . . .6-10
1991 Colts. . . . . . . . . .9- 7
1996 Jets. . . . . . . . . . 9- 7
2000 Chargers. . . . . . . 5-11
2001 Panthers. . . . . . . 7- 9
2007 Dolphins. . . . . . .10- 5

The Dolphins can clinch their first playoff berth since 2001 with their 11th win of the season Sunday. The turnaround began after a 2-4 start in 2008, and winning Sunday would give the surprising Dolphins nine victories over the final 10 games. They will pursue their fifth consecutive win to successfully conclude a wholly unexpected push for a postseason bid.

Going head-to-head in recent years, however, the Jets have had a decided advantage over the Dolphins, who were 20-44 over the four seasons prior to 2008. The Jets have won 17 of the last 21 matchups between the two teams, dominating the second half to pull out a number of games. During this 21-game span, New York is 11-2 in games decided by eight of fewer points. That includes a 20-14 Jets victory in Miami in the 2008 season opener, when the Dolphins lost for the 19th time in 20 games.

Another down-to-the-wire showdown is likely at the Meadowlands Sunday, a fitting conclusion to an AFC East race that may be decided in the final minute of the season. All three contenders -- the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets -- could finish 10-6, but one of them could become just the seventh 10-6 team to go home empty-handed since 1990, when the playoffs expanded to the current 12-team format.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The New England Patriots have won each of the last five AFC East titles, often handily, but that streak is on the line when they play at Buffalo Sunday. At 10-5, the Patriots are tied with the Miami Dolphins for first place in the division, and losing to the Bills could leave them out of the playoff picture all-together.

If history counts for something, the Patriots look like the obvious winner Sunday, with an NFL-best 31-6 record in December over the last eight seasons and 10 consecutive victories over Buffalo. In seven of those 10 wins, the Pats have scored more than 25 points. The Bills have never tallied more than 17 points in any of their 10 losses, and the margin of defeat has been two or more touchdowns on seven occasions. The numbers tell the story:

Patriots vs. Bills, Last 10 Meetings

. . . . . . . . . . . . . NE. . . . . .Buf
Wins. . . . . . . . . . 10. . . . . . .0
Points/Gm. . . . . .30.8. . . . . 9.6
Rush Yds/Gm. . . 141.5. . . . .83.8
Pass Yds/Gm. . . .244.7. . . . 154.2
Total Yds/Gm. . .386.2. . . . 238.0
Turnovers. . . . . . 11. . . . . . 26

Buffalo’s 20-10 loss to New England on Nov. 9, in Foxborough, was one of the closer games the teams have played in this stretch. The 7-8 Bills started the season by winning five of their first six games, but their subsequent slide was picking up steam when the Patriots shut down the Buffalo offense in Week 10. A key contributor for the Pats was undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who ran for 105 of his 275 rushing yards on the season in the win.

The Bills have lost seven of nine games going into the season finale, and the Patriots have won 11 straight December contests, but New England’s ticket to the postseason requires more than a win in Buffalo. Even if the Pats beat the Bills, they need the Dolphins to fall to the Jets later on Sunday to once again rule the AFC East, as Miami holds the tiebreaker for the division crown.

There’s also a wild-card berth up for grabs, in case Miami beats the Jets, but the 10-5 Pats must win and the stumbling Jaguars must beat the 10-5 Ravens. If the Patriots win and neither Miami nor Baltimore loses, they would become just the fifth 11-win team in NFL history to miss the playoffs. They would join the 1985 Denver Broncos as the only two clubs in the last 40 seasons to win 11 and go home.

On top of that, missing the playoffs would be a first for the Patriots since going 9-7 in 2002. They bounced back to win the first of back-to-back Super Bowls the next season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

When Bears kicker Robbie Gould drilled home a 38-yard, game-winning field in overtime Monday night, giving Chicago a 20-17 win over Green Bay, the Minnesota Vikings may have moved one step closer to the inevitable.

That sentiment is inescapable for many Vikings fans, who might say their team took two steps closer to elimination in the last 36 hours. First, the Vikes fumbled away a chance to clinch the NFC North at home Sunday afternoon, coughing up the football four times and losing 24-17 to playoff-bound Atlanta.

Then in the waning seconds on Monday night, Bears DE Alex Brown blocked an Atlanta field-goal attempt for the win before Gould moved the Bears into a first-place tie with Minnesota.

This is familiar turf for the Vikings, who have made just one playoff appearance since winning their last division crown in 2000. The team hasn’t come through late in the season, especially when it’s had a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

A year ago, they were 8-6 and held down the final wild-card berth with two weeks to go. The Vikes could have nailed down a spot in Week 16, when they hosted 7-7 Washington. The Skins shut down Adrian Peterson in a 32-14 victory, however, and went on to secure that wild-card berth. A week later, the Vikings still had a chance to play in January, but needed a Washington loss in the season finale. That didn’t happen, and the Vikings were struck by fumbilitis and lost at Denver, 22-19 in overtime.

Two years earlier in 2005, their previous flirtation with the postseason, the Vikings were 8-5 through Week 14. They and the Cowboys shared the same record for the final wild-card seeding, and the Vikes needed to win a critical game at home against the Steelers, also 8-5. Veteran QB Brad Johnson, who had taken over for the injured Daunte Culpepper when the team was 2-5, finally had an off day facing the stingy Pittsburgh defense in an 18-3 loss. Other contenders also lost, so the Vikings were still in the playoff mix in Week 16, but they dropped a 30-23 decision to the 5-9 Baltimore Ravens and were eliminated.

In 2003, the Vikings started 6-0, but then lost four in a row and needed a victory over Arizona in the season finale to claim a wild-card bid. The season appeared to be saved when the 3-12 Cardinals trailed 17-6 coming up on the two-minute warning. They stunned the Vikings by scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes, including a game-winning, fourth-and-long toss from Josh McCown to Nate Poole for a 28-yard score as time expired. The Vikings lost 18-17 and went home.

Minnesota’s only playoff appearance since winning the NFC Central title in 2000 came in 2004, a year after the disaster in the desert. Even that year, however, the 8-8 Vikes lost four of their last five games and backed into the playoffs.

There hasn’t been a Vikings team to get excited about in December since that last division title.

Chances are, most Vikings fans will be simply awaiting the inevitable when the defending Super Bowl champion Giants visit the Metrodome on Sunday. They root for a team that has won its season finale only once in the last five years -- and the one time, in 2005, was a meaningless game against the Bears. The Vikings had already lost back-to-back contests to Pittsburgh and Baltimore to fall out of the playoff hunt.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Saturday is Opening Day for the college bowl season. Four games are on tap, and as the day winds down, the NFL goes primetime. Two 9-5 teams very much in playoff contention, the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys, will play the final regular-season game at Texas Stadium.

A home win by the Cowboys may be the only chance that a postseason game delays Texas Stadium’s retirement. Saturday’s matchup features two teams that are winning, with defenses that have been instrumental to recent success.

The Ravens had won seven of their last eight contests before losing a defensive showdown to the Steelers, 13-9, last Sunday. After losing three of four games in the middle of the schedule, the Cowboys have won four of their last five, including a convincing 20-8 victory over the NFC East-leading Giants last week.

Neither Baltimore nor Dallas has allowed a rushing touchdown over the last five weeks. The Ravens haven’t given one up since the first quarter of a 30-10 loss to the defending NFL champs on Nov. 16. In the four games since losing to New York, the Baltimore defense has allowed just one touchdown, via the air, and the Ravens have three wins and a low-scoring loss to the Steelers to show for it. The Ravens have given up just three rushing touchdowns all season.

The Cowboys also haven’t given up a rushing touchdown since losing to the Giants -- a 35-14 defeat on Nov. 2. Among all NFL clubs, the Ravens and Cowboys have the longest streaks of opponent rushing attempts without allowing a rushing touchdown.

Opponent Rushes without a TD -- Longest Active Streak

Baltimore Ravens. . . .109
Dallas Cowboys. . . . . 104
Minnesota Vikings. . . .92
Arizona Cardinals. . . . 84
Pittsburgh Steelers. . .76

The Giants picked apart the Cowboys defense that day, but since then, it has allowed a total of just four touchdowns in five games -- all through the air.

The Ravens will have to find a way to move bodies at the line on Saturday. No team has been more committed to the run this season, as they have rushed on an NFL-high 56.1 percent of their offensive plays. Often with less than astounding success.

Rookie QB Joe Flacco has been a pleasant surprise, throwing for 12 touchdowns during Baltimore’s current 7-2 surge. He’s coming off one of his worst performances of the season, and he faces a Dallas defense that leads the league with 53 sacks.

The key on Saturday will be the Baltimore defense. In last nine games, the Ravens have held opponents to fewer than 14 points seven times.

The defense should provide a stiff challenge for the Dallas offense. Only the Giants have logged as many as 100 rushing yards in a game against the Ravens this season, and the Cowboys’ No. 1 back, Marion Barber is a game-time decision whether he’ll play. He missed the Cowboys’ loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago with a dislocated toe, and wasn’t a factor in last week’s win over the Giants. Barber hasn’t practiced with the team this week.

Rookie Tashard Choice has played well in Barber’s absence. Choice had 166 all-purpose yards against the Steelers, and recorded another 143 and scampered 38 yards for a touchdown versus the Giants.

The Cowboys were sputtering without QB Tony Romo six weeks ago, when he was out with a broken pinkie, but they have won four out of five since his return. He’s thrown 10 TD passes in this stretch. With Barber most likely out, Romo, who is nursing a sore back, may have to take to the air to win the regular-season finale at Texas Stadium.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After avoiding an upset loss to the winless Detroit Lions the final Sunday in October, the Washington Redskins were 6-2, their best start since opening the 1996 season with a 7-1 mark.

The Skins’ season has unraveled, however, as they’ve lost five of their last six games to fall to 7-7. Just three weeks ago, Washington was 7-4 and a front-runner for an NFC wild-card berth. Since then, the Skins have never led and have been outscored 38-0 in the first quarter.

The first quarter has been rough going all season long for Washington. Only four NFL clubs have allowed more first-quarter points.

First-Quarter Points Allowed, 2008
(minimum 80)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . Pts. . . . . . . Tm Rec
Washington. . . . . 82. . . . . . . . . .7-7
Buffalo. . . . . . . . 95. . . . . . . . . .6-8
Jacksonville. . . . .98. . . . . . . . . .5-9
Detroit. . . . . . . . 98. . . . . . . . . 0-14
St. Louis. . . . . . 124. . . . . . . . . 2-12

The Skins may be the only .500 team among those which have allowed at least 80 first-quarter points, but their recent inability to shut down opponents early in games has ruined a season that started promisingly.

The three-game skid began with Eli Manning hitting Amani Toomer with a 40-yard touchdown pass in the opening minutes of a key home matchup with the NFC East-leading Giants on Nov. 30. Washington fell behind 10-0 in the opening 15 minutes and lost 23-7.

The following week, the Baltimore Ravens scored two touchdowns in the first six minutes and claimed a 24-10 victory. Last Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals also tallied two first-quarter scores -- and for a third straight week, the Skins finished a loss with fewer points than they had allowed in the opening quarter. The 2-11-1 Bengals prevailed, 20-13, for just their second win of the season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Pittsburgh Steelers can clinch the AFC North title Sunday. That is, if they can top the Baltimore Ravens in a battle of the top two defenses in the league. The defensive units of these division rivals generate plenty of statistical intrigue for Sunday’s showdown in Baltimore, which qualifies as the NFL Matchup of the Week.

Going into Week 15, the 10-3 Steelers top the NFL in total defense, allowing just 241.9 yards per game. The defense of the 9-4 Ravens is second with a 253.4 yards-per-game average.

The stinginess of the defenses takes on an added dimension Sunday. The Ravens have given up an average of just 10.0 points per game at home, the lowest mark in the league. The Steelers have allowed 11.3 points per game on the road, and only the Titans (10.8) have averaged fewer points allowed per game away from home.

So, look for a defensive battle? Probably, but who knows?

The last time the two teams hooked up, on Sept. 29, Pittsburgh came away with a 23-20 overtime victory on a 46-yard field goal by Jeff Reed. Both clubs allowed 20 or more points. Baltimore has done that in just three games all season; Pittsburgh has given up 20 or more only four times.

The Steelers’ defensive unit hasn’t allowed 300 total yards in a game since the 2007 regular-season finale, when the Ravens secured a 27-21 home victory on Dec. 30. Opponents are averaging just 3.92 yards per play this season against the Pittsburgh defense, which would be the lowest full-season average since the 1979 Buccaneers held the opposition to just 3.89 yards per play. And the Steelers have executed 10 takeaways in their last two games -- in wins over New England and Dallas.

Pittsburgh has won four straight games on the road, as well as its last four overall. Baltimore has won seven of its last eight games and has a 5-1 record at home. The only home loss came at the hands of the 12-1 Titans on Oct. 5.

The Ravens’ defense has allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season. It hasn’t given up one at home in 134 consecutive carries, dating to last year’s season finale against Pittsburgh, when Najeh Davenport ran in from the one in the second quarter of Baltimore’s victory. Playing at home, the Ravens have held their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards and haven’t allowed a rush of 15 or more yards since November 2007. No individual has rushed for 100+ yards at the Ravens’ house in 24 straight games.

Baltimore faces a Pittsburgh offense that hasn’t looked championship caliber for most of the season. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t having one of his better years, and the Steelers’ running game has failed to rush for more than 70 yards in five games. The team’s 103.8 rushing yards per game ranks 23rd in the NFL, and it has the league’s worst third-down conversion rate. The defense has kept the Steelers in games, and has allowed the offense plenty of possession time to get on track.

Although the Ravens’ offense has often sputtered as well, in those seven wins over the last eight weeks, Baltimore has averaged 32.6 points per game. OK, the defense has played a key role in scoring: Terrell Suggs has a pair of long interception returns for scores, Ed Reed ran one fumble back for a touchdown and set an NFL record with a 107-yard TD return of an interception on Nov. 23 against Philadelphia. He has a pair of interceptions in two of Baltimore's last three games.

Still, Baltimore has dominated time of possession during its recent surge. For the season, the offense has had 24 possessions of five minutes or more, tied for third most in the league. The Ravens have been a running offense, rushing on an NFL-high 56.5 percent of their offensive snaps.

The running game hasn’t been a resounding success for the Ravens, as both they and the Steelers rank near the bottom of the league in yards per rush. By grinding it out on the ground, though, the Ravens are the only NFL team that has four backs with at least 450 rushing yards this season -- Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice -- a feat only the 2003 Eagles and 2004 Chiefs have matched in the last 10 years.

For the Ravens, a key difference of late has been quarterback Joe Flacco. The 23-year-old rookie, who has a 60.2-percent completion rate that’s not far off Roethlisberger’s NFL rookie record (66.4 percent in 2004), has turned in impressive efforts in five of the last eight games -- though the four best have come on the road. In this stretch, he has thrown 12 TD passes and just three interceptions, good for a 95.6 passer rating.

It’s been premier defensive units, however, that have sparked Super Bowl championships for both clubs since the NFL-AFL merger, and it’s likely that the success of the defenses will be critical to how far the Steelers and Ravens advance in the postseason. Sunday’s game is a playoff primer for both teams, and the AFC North title is still on the line.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The race in the AFC East is a jumbled affair. The New York Jets lead the way at 8-4 and just two games separate the entire pack. With all four clubs still in the playoff mix, Sunday’s showdown between divisional rivals Miami and Buffalo is the NFL Matchup of the Week.

Undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the 2008 season is the 7-5 Dolphins, who won just one game in 2007. Heading into Week 14, they are just one game behind New York in the AFC East, and trail Indianapolis and Baltimore by the same margin in the wild-card race.

The Bills were off to an equally surprising start this season. After going 7-9 a year ago, they opened with five wins in their first six games. Since then, they have lost five of their last six to even their record at 6-6. A .500 record would suggest the Bills are on life support in terms of reaching the playoffs, but they could still emerge in the AFC East with a little help. They will play the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots -- all divisional opponents -- over the course of their last four games. Buffalo travels to the Meadowlands next week to face the Jets, and closes the season at home against New England.

It won’t easy be for the Bills, who are the home team on Sunday. The Dolphins won’t be facing the cold and the lake-effect snow conditions near Lake Erie. Instead, the game will be played indoors at Rogers Centre, where the two clubs will square off in the NFL’s first regular-season contest in Canada.

That’s a break for the warm-weather Dolphins, who are 4-10 in Buffalo since 1994. They have won just two of nine games there after Dec. 1, which includes a pair of playoff losses.

Take away the cold weather, and playing Buffalo suits the Dolphins just fine. Miami has posted 47 victories over the Bills since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, the most in the league among Buffalo’s opponents. The Dolphins are 47-30 against the Bills in this span.

Historical success doesn’t win games, of course, but the Bills face a tougher challenge if QB Trent Edwards isn’t healthy. He suffered a groin injury last week, which has kept him out of practice and may keep on the sideline Sunday. If Edwards sits, the Bills will go with backup J.P. Losman, who has played in three games this season and is 10-21 in his career as a starter.

Two of Losman’s best starts, however, have come against Miami. He posted his best single-game QB rating (142.5) in a start on Dec. 17, 2006, when he threw for three touchdowns in Buffalo’s 21-0 victory over the Dolphins.

Perhaps who is under center won’t matter. Both of these teams have excelled offensively on the ground of late. Over their last four games, Miami has average 148.0 rushing yards per game and Buffalo is next with 143.3. Only the Jets (170.0) have averaged more per game during this span.

The Dolphins also are one of six NFL clubs with a pair of 500-yard rushers this season. Ronnie Brown leads Miami with 690 rushing yards. Ricky Williams, who has a 4.3-yard average that tops Brown’s 4.1 mark, has accumulated 512 yards on the ground.

First-down success has been critical to both teams’ 2008 success. The Dolphins are averaging a gain of 6.20 yards on first down, the second-highest mark behind Houston (6.51). The Bills rank fifth in the league with a 6.03 average. A solid start to a set of downs has allowed both clubs to stick with the running game.

Scoring at least 20 points may be critical to the Bills. When they tally fewer than 20, they are 0-5 this season. A year ago, the Bills were 5-7 and posted the most wins in the league when they collected less than 20 points. A strong defensive stand against Miami’s running game could take pressure off Buffalo’s offense.

There will be plenty of pressure on both teams. The upstart Dolphins are looking to make their first playoff appearance since 2001. The Bills, who haven’t played in the postseason since 2000, are looking to stay alive.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 7:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If there’s such a thing as luck, Week 13 certainly was lucky for the road teams. Ten of 12 road clubs won Sunday, and the visitors are 11-4 this week going into Monday night’s matchup between the Jaguars and Texans in Houston.

Among the highlights, the Steelers put their playoff push back on track by winning in Foxborough for the first time since December 1997. The defending Super Bowl champions improved to 5-1 on the road at Washington, as the Giants won their seventh straight overall. Two of the NFL’s biggest surprises, the Dolphins and Falcons, won on the road to stay in the playoff hunt. Atlanta crippled the Chargers’ chances with a 22-16 victory in San Diego. At the Meadowlands, the Broncos ended the surging Jets’ five-game winning streak with a 34-17 win. And the 4-8 49ers claimed just their second road win this season by sticking the slumping Bills with their third straight home defeat.

If the Jaguars can win tonight, the road teams will claim 12 wins in a single week for only the fourth time in NFL history. It happened most recently in Week 16 of the 2006 season.

With a Jacksonville victory, Week 13’s road winning percentage would rank among the best since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

Best Road Record in Week, since 1970
(minimum 5 games, incorporates 1971-72 tie distinction)

Year. . .Wk. . . Rec. . . Pct
1983. . . . 1. . .12-2-0. . .857
2001. . . 11. . .12-3-0. . .800
2007. . . .8. . .10-3-0. . .769
1972. . . .5. . .10-3-0. . .769

2006. . . 16. . 12-4-0. . .750
1983. . . .8. . .10-3-1. . .750
1971. . . .2. . . 9-3-1. . .750
1970. . . .5. . . 9-3-1. . .750
2008. . . 13. . 11-4-0. . .733

Otherwise, there isn’t much at stake for the Jags and Texans. Both are 4-7 in the AFC South. The winner escapes the AFC South cellar.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A showdown of AFC powerhouses after Thanksgiving is always worth watching, and that’s likely the case when the Pittsburgh Steelers go on the road to face the defending AFC champion New England Patriots Sunday.

The Steelers hold a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North heading into the weekend. The Patriots are tied for a wild-card spot, but because of tiebreakers, would be on the outside looking in if the playoffs were getting underway. Both the statistical intrigue and the importance of Sunday’s game make the Steelers and Patriots the NFL Matchup of the Week.

These two teams come ready to play this time of the year. Since the start of the 2001 season, including the playoffs, the Patriots and Steelers rank first and second in the NFL, respectively, in post-Thanksgiving winning percentage.

In that span, New England is 48-9 (.842) after turkeys find their way into ovens across the land. Although no other team has single-digit, post-Thanksgiving losses over these eight years, the Steelers rank second at 36-16, with a .692 winning percentage.

The Steelers are second among NFL clubs despite a 1-4 finish a year ago, when a 34-13 defeat at Foxborough began a slide that ended with a first-round home loss to Jacksonville. The Steelers were 9-3 going into that Dec. 9 matchup with New England, but their top-rated defense was never the same after Pats QB Tom Brady threw for 399 yards and four scores.

Once again the Steelers have the top-ranked defense, leading the league this season against both the pass (168.8 yards) and the run (66.5) in fewest yards allowed per game. Entering Week 13, the Steelers are second with 37 sacks.

This time, however, the Steelers will see Matt Cassel under center for New England. Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Patriots’ opener, making Cassel a starting QB for the first time since his high school days. After an adjustment period, the 26-year-old has shown he’s a legitimate NFL quarterback.

Cassel has completed 30 passes in each of New England’s last two games, throwing six touchdown passes and just one pick combined in last week’s 48-28 win at Miami and a 34-31 overtime loss to division rival New York on Nov. 13. As a result, the 8-3 Jets are one game up on the Patriots in the AFC East.

The Steelers will have their hands full defensively. In last week’s New England victory, Cassel became the fifth NFL quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to throw back-to-back 400-yard games. Three of the other four -- Dan Fouts, Dan Marino and Phil Simms -- followed up with solid performances and a win the next time out.

A win is critical to New England’s playoff push. The Pats may be tied with Indianapolis and Baltimore for the final two postseason berths, but they’d be watching football from home if the playoffs were kicking off this weekend.

History is on New England’s side on Sunday. Over the last 10 years, the Patriots are 6-1 against the Steelers, a stretch that includes a pair of AFC Conference Championship wins. In those seven games, the Pats averaged 28 points per game despite Pittsburgh’s perennial prowess on the defensive side of the ball.

This time it won be Brady attempting to dissect the defense of the Steelers, who last won in Foxborough in December 1997. It will be Cassel pushing to keep the Patriots in the playoff hunt, while the Steelers will try to avoid having the Patriots spark a New York Mets-style crash-and-burn for a second year in a row.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two of the biggest stories of the 2008 season are the undefeated Tennessee Titans and Brett Favre’s move to the rejuvenated New York Jets. The Titans look to stay perfect and Favre is poised to set a few personal milestones Sunday, when the Jets travel to Nashville to face the streaking Titans in the NFL Matchup of the Week.

The 7-3 Jets have been nearly as unbeatable as Tennessee of late, winning six of their last seven games to storm to the top of the AFC East. After scoring 81 points the last two weeks in victories over St. Louis and New England, the Jets are averaging 28.9 points per game -- the second-highest average in team history. Only the Super Bowl-winning team in 1968, directed by Joe Namath, posted a higher average (29.9).

The Jets’ points-per-game average has jumped by 12.1 points over last season. That’s the sixth-largest increase from one year to the next by a team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. The points have been piling up as Favre has thrown 12 TD passes during New York’s 6-1 surge, and his next scoring toss will be the 500th touchdown of his career, regular season and postseason combined.

Favre needs to throw for two touchdowns to reach 20 for the season. If he connects twice against the Titans, he would become the first quarterback in history to throw at least 20 TD passes in 14 seasons. Favre has surpassed Hall of Famer Dan Marino in nearly every passing category, and he would jump ahead of the former Miami quarterback for 20-TD seasons with a pair of scores Sunday.

While generally throwing shorter passes in the Jets’ offensive scheme, Favre has completed 69.8 percent of his pass attempts in 2007, the highest completion percentage of his 18-year career. On Sunday he’ll face a Titans defense that has given up the fewest points in the league.

In particular, Tennessee has excelled defensively against the pass, recording 15 interceptions and 28 sacks, totals that rank second and sixth in the NFL, respectively. The Titans, who have 10 sacks in the last three weeks, have allowed just five passing touchdowns all season.

The Titans defense has allowed more than 17 points in a game only once this season. That was in a 31-21 win over division rival Indianapolis in a Monday night affair on Oct. 27. The Jets have been good for 81 points combined the last two weeks, but Tennessee’s defensive unit could be bolstered this week by the return of two injured starters, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and CB Nick Harper.

The Jets may prove to be Tennessee’s toughest challenge over the next few weeks, as the Titans will face Detroit, Cleveland and Houston before closing out the season against the Steelers and Colts.

Titans QB Kerry Collins has been consistently productive all season long. He’s thrown just four interceptions and has been sacked only five times. Four of those sacks have been in the last three weeks, but Collins has thrown five TD passes with just one interception in beating Green Bay, Chicago and Jacksonville. This week, he goes up against a Jets defense that ranks third in the league with 34 sacks.

Sunday’s matchup features two veteran quarterbacks enjoying fine seasons, and a pair of defensive units that have been hard on QBs all season long. It may be a preview of a second go-round in January’s AFC playoffs.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Two NFL clubs that looked all but certain to make the playoffs this season, the San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers, haven’t been getting much out of a star player lately -- and both teams are struggling. Each is looking for a turnaround when they square off in Pittsburgh Sunday, and the statistical intrigue makes this showdown the NFL Matchup of the Week.

Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson has just two 100-yard games in a frustrating season, during which the team has gravitated to the success of QB Philip Rivers and the passing game. Tomlinson has rushed for less than 75 yards in five of nine contests. He’s been held to less than 50 yards on the ground in three of San Diego’s five losses.

Since upending New England on Oct. 12, the 4-5 Chargers have lost two of three games and barely escaped with a 20-19 win over the 1-8 Chiefs last week. The challenge Sunday for Tomlinson and the Chargers, who trail the 5-4 Broncos in the AFC West, is getting the franchise’s first regular-season win in Pittsburgh.

The Chargers are 0-12 all-time playing on the Steelers’ home field in the regular season. Making the 13th matchup the lucky first win would mark a big step toward a serious playoff push for the Chargers, who need to turn their season around soon.

In losing two of their last three games -- a tough stretch in which Pittsburgh won at Washington and lost home contests to the Giants and Colts -- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for just one touchdown and been intercepted eight times. The quarterback is giving no indication how much he is he bothered by a sore shoulder, the result of an injury suffered early in November.

Roethlisberger gets a chance to kick-start the passing game Sunday. San Diego’s pass defense is among the worst in the league. The team holds down one of the three lowest spots among NFL clubs in opposition completion percentage (67.8%), opponent passing yards per game (264.9) and opponent passing touchdowns (17). Only the Arizona Cardinals have allowed more passing TDs (18). No team has given up more passing yards per game than San Diego.

The Chargers defense also has the NFL’s longest active streak by failing to intercept 128 consecutive passes. The pick-prone Roethlisberger, with eight in his last three games, may be catching a break.

The Chargers offense has been slow-starting for much of 2008, but has recovered to tally 139 second-half points, tied for the second most in the league. That presents a challenge for the Pittsburgh defense, which has given up just 64 second-half points, the third fewest among all teams. Chargers QB Rivers leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes, including 11 after halftime. Will the 6-3 Steelers be able to shut down San Diego’s passing game to the very end?

The Steelers defense has been especially successful against the pass. It has allowed only 171.1 passing yards per game in 2008, the fewest in the league, and ranks first with 34 sacks. Pittsburgh is third in fewest points allowed per game (15.6).

If the Chargers could treat the game with the urgency of a playoff matchup, pulling out that first regular-season win in Pittsburgh is a more realistic possibility. After all, in the only two postseason games between the two teams in Pittsburgh, the Chargers won both times.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

For its statistical intrigue, let’s go with Sunday’s game between the Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears as the NFL Matchup of the Week. The showdown in Chicago features a pair of first-place teams who are calling on No. 2 quarterbacks and rookie running backs to get it done.

The visiting Titans, 8-0 on the season, are in pursuit of their sixth straight regular-season road victory. They will face a Bears team that is all but certain to be without its No. 1 quarterback Sunday, as Kyle Orton suffered an ankle sprain in last week’s win over Detroit.

Orton walked without a limp in the presence of the media Friday -- and told reporters he had made remarkable progress over the two previous days -- but Rex Grossman looks like the starter against Tennessee. Grossman, who led the Bears to a Super Bowl appearance in 2006, will make his first start since Dec. 6.

The Titans, of course, have been relying on their backup quarterback all season. When Vince Young suffered a knee injury in Week 1, Kerry Collins stepped in and has directed the club with poise and confidence. The statistics won’t impress, but they don’t always tell the story -- and they certainly don’t matter to an 8-0 club.

The Titans and Bears also feature two of the NFL’s top rookie backs. Titans speedster Chris Johnson leads the AFC with 715 rushing yards, and he and LenDale White head a Tennessee ground attack that ranks third in the NFL by averaging 149.1 yards a game.

Bears rookie Matt Forte is seventh in the league with 614 rushing yards. Throw in 228 receiving yards, and the Bears’ touchdown leader has 869 scrimmage yards -- the sixth-most in the league. Fifth is Johnson with 879. Both running backs have scored six touchdowns.

If one of the two rookies excels Sunday, that would go a long way in securing a victory for his team. Otherwise, Collins may give Tennessee the advantage Sunday. He’s been solid and dependable. Going into the game, Collins has thrown 119 passes without being intercepted. The only active streak that is longer is 130 consecutive passes by Orton, but we aren’t likely to see him anywhere but on the sideline Sunday.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 6:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Dallas Cowboys have lost three of their last four games, and WR Terrell Owens has failed to collect as many as 40 receiving yards in any of those contests.

Obviously it’s made a difference that the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver didn’t have the injured Tony Romo leading the offense the last three weeks. Romo, who is recovering from a broken pinkie on his throwing hand, was seen firing passes to Owens in practice Wednesday, so that’s a good sign. Still, Owens’ drop in production goes back nearly a year.

Since the start of the 2007 season, T.O. has played a total of 25 games, regular season and playoffs combined. In the first 12 of those games, Owens piled up 14 receiving touchdowns and 1,249 yards, an average of 104.1 per game.

In Dallas’ 12th game of the 2007 campaign, on Nov. 29, Owens caught seven passes for 156 yards and a touchdown in a 37-27 victory over Green Bay. The Cowboys improved to 11-1 with the win; the Packers fell to 10-2.

Since then, Owens hasn’t had a 100-yard performance. In his last 13 games, Owens’ output has been cut roughly in half. He’s caught eight TD passes and accumulated just 622 receiving yards, an average of just 47.8 a game.

The Cowboys are 7-6 in this stretch of games. With Jet Favre no longer in Green Bay, Dallas was poised to rule the NFC this season. With the 5-4 Cowboys in last place in the NFC East, it’ll take a lengthy winning streak to return to the postseason. And it’ll take a large dose of the old T.O. to make that happen.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 3:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In terms of statistical intrigue, the NFL’s top matchup this week would have to be Monday night’s showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Redskins.

Having the 5-2 Steelers, the AFC North leader, face the 6-2 Redskins is more than a matchup of playoff teams. The game has political overtones. A Steelers win in Washington could foretell a victory for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama the following day.

Between 1936 and 2000, a Redskin victory in their last home game before Election Day meant the incumbent party kept control of the White House. So a Skins win on Monday night could be an inspiration to Republican presidential nominee John McCain. A Redskin loss could spell doom to the party that has inhabited the White House for the last eight years.

Wait a minute. . . are you sure?

STATS’ Los Angeles-based research group tells me that streak ended in 2004, when Washington lost a home game to the Green Bay Packers on the Sunday before Election Day. Despite the Skins’ loss, George W. Bush stayed in the White House.

The disparity in poll results in recent days suggests pollsters have no more idea who’s going to win on Tuesday than most football fans. If you’re more inclined to let a football team predict this election that never ends, STATS’ research group recommends the Cincinnati Bengals.

In nine of the past 10 presidential elections, the Bengals have tied their fate to the Democratic candidate. Since 1968, if Cincinnati won its last contest prior to Election Day, the Democratic nominee for the White House also was victorious. If Cincinnati lost its last contest before Election Day, the Democrat also lost. The lone exception was in 1988, when the Bengals defeated the Steelers on November 6. Two days later, Michael Dukakis lost the presidential election to George H.W. Bush.

The 0-8 Bengals wouldn’t have made Obama a good bet when the sun rose this morning, but Cincinnati is leading the Jacksonville Jaguars, 21-13 in the fourth quarter. Somewhere Obama has to be glued to a television.

STATS’ Los Angeles-based research group, which provides broadcast notes for nearly every NFL game played, is responsible for the statistical content of this ad and approves this message.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With a 16-game schedule, starting 0-2 in the NFL wouldn’t seem like much of a hurdle. After all, the New York Giants opened 0-2 a year ago, and look how their season finished.

The truth is, though, an 0-2 start is a significant obstacle to playing postseason football. Since the current playoff format was put in place in 1990, 148 teams have lost their first two games. Only 19 have them reached the playoffs. That’s a meager 12.8 percent of the 0-2 clubs.

At least five of the 0-2 teams this season were expected to be contenders for playoff berths. Two are 2007 division winners who find themselves looking up at the rest of the pack. It’s not encouraging that in the 18 seasons of the current playoff format, only twice -- in 1990 and 1998 -- have as many as three 0-2 starters made it to the postseason. Those five 2008 teams have uphill climbs.

After going 11-5 to claim the AFC West title last season, the Chargers have failed to outscore their opponents in a pair of defensively challenged contests. They lost to Carolina on the last play of their opener, then dropped a 39-38 decision to Denver Sunday in the final minute. The errant whistle that nullified a late Broncos fumble was frustrating enough, but the Chargers, who were expected to roll in the West, face Week 3 with LaDainian Tomlinson hampered by a toe injury.

The Seahawks are the defending NFC West champions after a 10-6 performance a year ago, but they have opened with losses to Buffalo and San Francisco. The receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, inspiring the Seahawks to trade for Keary Colbert and bring back Koren Robinson, who was jettisoned by Seattle a couple of years ago for bad behavior. Perhaps the Seahawks are not a shoe-in to claim their fifth straight division title.

The Jaguars face a tough early-season schedule. After losing to Tennessee and Buffalo, they face Indianapolis Sunday and Pittsburgh in two weeks. Like Seattle, Jacksonville is struggling with injuries to its receivers. The team’s top two targets, Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, are out. With an anemic offense that has been limited to a single touchdown in each loss, the Jags’ playoff hopes may be all but dead by October.

Cleveland added all kinds of talent to build on a promising 10-6 season a year ago. The Browns opened with a pair of home games, but they happened to host Dallas and Pittsburgh the first two weeks. Injuries also have been a problem for the Browns, who are 0-6 combined since the start of the preseason schedule. They’ll be looking for their first 2008 win of any kind Sunday. The Browns face the Ravens in Baltimore, where they have lost four of their last five games.

With the NFC Central up for grabs, the Vikings looked poised for their first playoff appearance since 2004. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson couldn’t ignite the offense in losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis the first two weeks, and Aaron Rodgers has shown the Vikings that the Pack will be a formidable foe. Minnesota may be without star RB Adrian Peterson in Week 3, when quarterback duties are turned over to veteran backup Gus Frerotte. That’s not the ticket to making the playoffs.

Starting 0-2 isn’t exactly the kiss of death, but it isn’t a lip lock drenched in love, either. Of those 19 teams who began 0-2 still advanced to the playoffs, only four reached the Super Bowl. The 1996 Patriots rebounded to finish 11-5 and won a pair of playoff games before falling to Green Bay in the title game.

The other three teams all won the Big One.

Super Bowl Winners who Started 0-2, Since 1990

Team. . . . . . . . . . . . . .W-L. . . . . . .SB Game
1993 Cowboys. . . . . . . .12-4. . . . .Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
2001 Patriots. . . . . . . . .11-5. . . . .New England 20, St. Louis 17
2007 Giants. . . . . . . . . .10-6. . . . .New York 17, New England 14

The 1993 Cowboys and 2001 Patriots finished strong. Dallas lost only twice more all season, and won its last five regular-season games. New England won its last six games of the regular season and finished the year winning nine straight.

The inspiration for teams trying to salvage their 2008 season after starting 0-2 has to be last year’s Giants. They won six straight after dropping their first two games, then went a less-than-inspiring 4-4 down the stretch. The Giants are the only 0-2 Super Bowl winner since 1990 to win four playoff contests to claim the title.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After Week 1 of the NFL season was in the books, one of the top stories in circulation involved Tennessee quarterback Vince Young, who was booed heavily at home before the Titans pulled out a 17-10 win over Jacksonville.

Young, who suffered a knee injury late in the game and left the stadium on crutches, reportedly was upset enough by events to spark concern among teammates about his emotional well-being. When Young was nowhere to be found for four hours Monday night, police were called to help find him. It turns out Young was fine, though the news reports forced Titans coach Jeff Fisher to spend much of his Tuesday radio show addressing the matter.

This writer’s immediate reaction to the story was that it was nobody’s business. A player’s personal life and whereabouts are not for mass consumption, and his emotional health shouldn’t be news for a leering public. The right to know isn’t absolute.

Years ago, what an athlete did on his own time was off limits. Any high-profile person’s sins, sexcapades or personal issues rarely made the news, nor, for that matter, were they grounds for impeachment.

That’s all changed, of course, and the scrutiny of an athlete’s personal life seems to be justified by the fact that he makes lots of money playing a kid’s game. He’s supposed to be a role model for children, and the media have taken on the role of policing him.

Does that make any sense? Not only are most of us spared the pressure of having our work assessed in print, we also don’t have the details of our personal lives reported worldwide. In pro sports, the former is understandable, the latter isn’t justified.

After giving the coverage some thought, I’ve changed my tune a bit on the Young story. There’s a side of it I hope sports fans will digest and take to heart, though it’s unlikely.

Young works hard to succeed and struggles with failure, just like the rest of us. He happens to do it in a very high-profile profession and accepts what comes with it, but that’s not to say he’s unaffected by what goes on around him.

Anyone who has attended a sporting event has probably witnessed an athlete targeted with an insult that most of us would never repeat to another human being. The basic tenets of decency apparently don’t apply to fans, as many think they are justified by buying a ticket and believe they are paying player salaries. As far as being an unhappy consumer, it’s too bad some of that wrath isn’t directed at some of the country’s greediest CEOs.

No matter how much money an athlete makes, he doesn’t deserve to hear comments that we wouldn’t want directed at us. Even if you think Young is thin-skinned or overly emotional, those are qualities that are part of his makeup. He might be a fine-tuned athlete, but he’s not a robot.

Most professional athletes play their entire careers without lashing out, despite the constant barrage of derogatory comments they hear about their game, their personal lives, or their mothers and daughters. Even just a steady stream of boos can be hard to take when an athlete is simply having a bad day. After all, we all have them.

If there’s anything to be gained by having the Young story out there, it’s that athletes are more like us than we might realize. They battle with personal failure and the embarrassment it brings, just like the rest of us, except they do it before tens of thousands of onlookers.

If making lots of money at a kid’s game is a justification for anger and bile, maybe it should be directed at those who profit exponentially in far more consequential pursuits, such as taking jobs overseas or waging war under false pretenses. The guys on the field are just playing a game.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (8)

The offseason plight of Brett Favre was the biggest storyline of the offseason, and he's the top story in Week 1 of the new NFL season.

The New York Jets haven’t had a leader and playmaker at quarterback for some time, but after acquiring the future Hall of Famer in an August trade with Green Bay, that shortcoming has been fixed.

The expectations of Jets fans are through the roof, though they may be unrealistic. When the Jets ranked 25th in the league in net passing yards in 2007, their quarterbacks were sacked 53 times. Only three teams -- the Chiefs (55), 49ers (55) and Lions (54) -- endured more sacks of their quarterback.

The 38-year-old Favre isn’t known for his mobility. Over the last two seasons, only three quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions. And the Jets have a less-than-inspiring group of receivers.

The good news is, Favre should be aided by the addition of veteran linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. The Jets also bolstered their defensive unit by trading for DT Kris Jenkins, signing LB Calvin Pace and drafting LB Vernon Gholston with their first-round pick. A year ago, New York allowed an average of 134.8 yards per game on the ground, and the defensive acquisitions will be expected to slow down the opposition’s running game.

The retooled Jets should be better. They are coming off two 4-12 seasons in the last three years, with a 10-6 campaign sandwiched in between in 2006, which sparked hope for 2007. Dreams of a playoff bid faded quickly a year ago, as New York lost eight of its first nine games. For the season, the Jets averaged just 16.8 points a game with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens taking the snaps.

Can Brett the Jet fuel a turnaround? Favre is still learning the Jets offense, but it’s reasonable to expect New York to finish near the .500 mark. After all, Favre is 18-4 as Green Bay’s quarterback since starting the Pack on an eight-game regular-season winning streak in December 2006.

Although a team’s success depends on a lot more than its quarterback, more often than not, Favre made the Packers a better team. An AFC East division title appears out of reach in 2008, but if the Jets are much improved on both sides of the ball, Jet Favre could lead his team to a wild-card berth.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For the second time this season, the New England Patriots put their perfect season on the line against the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

In the regular-season finale between the two clubs, a 65-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Randy Moss in the fourth quarter not only set single-season records for TD passes and receptions, but put the Patriots in front of the Giants for good to close out their 16-0 regular season.

The Patriots are heavily favored to be the first team to finish 19-0 when they face the Giants again. Do the Giants have any chance to pull off the biggest upset since a guy named Namath and the AFL champion Jets upended the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III?

If you’re a Giants fan, put some stock in that final regular-season game. Other than facing the best team in football with a perfect season on the line, the Giants had virtually nothing to play for with their playoff seed already determined. Yet, they built a 28-16 lead in the third quarter before Brady and the Patriots claimed a 38-35 win.

Don’t look for Brady’s media-hyped injury to be a factor on Sunday. Much has been written about opponents’ success at containing Moss in the playoffs, but disrupting Brady and limiting his effectiveness will be equally critical to the Giants.

That’s a big Super Bowl assignment. Brady has thrived in the big one, going 3-0 with six touchdowns, one interception and a 99.9 passer rating. Among the 13 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 50 Super Bowl passes, only Joe Montana (127.8), Terry Bradshaw (112.8) and Troy Aikman (111.9) have posted higher ratings.

New York’s defensive unit has stepped up in the playoffs, creating more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. The Giants secondary hasn’t been a team strength, but it’s picked off five passes in three postseason victories. R.W. McQuarters has three of those interceptions. Corey Webster has a pair.

Whether New York wins or loses Sunday, fans want to see a game with a meaningful second half. The Giants, who have come from behind in all three of their playoff victories, may be just the team to play a title game decided in the final 15 minutes.

Including the postseason, the Giants lead the league with five fourth-quarter comeback victories in 2007. Four of those have come on the road, including New York’s 21-17 victory over Dallas, the NFC’s No. 1 seed, in their divisional playoff matchup. The Patriots, by the way, were tied for second in the league with four come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter.

Still, New England is the team to beat, and Eli Manning and friends will have to be at their best to stick with the Patriots deep into the second half. It can’t hurt that the Super Bowl is being played nearly 2,500 miles across the country from the Meadowlands.

The Giants come into Sunday’s game with 10 consecutive road wins -- including three in the postseason -- since losing their season opener in Dallas. They finished just 3-5 at home in 2007, the first team to reach the Super Bowl with a losing home record during the regular season.

If they can pull off the upset, the Giants become the first such team to win a Super Bowl. What they would forever be remembered for, though, is ending New England’s perfect season.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Sunday’s AFC championship game between the heavily favored New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers, winners of eight in a row, features three of the game’s premier players at their position.

The trio includes the NFL’s last two MVPs. Only five times in the last 50 years has a playoff game involved the two most recent award winners. It last happened during the 1995 playoffs, when league MVP Brett Favre and the Packers defeated Steve Young’s 49ers in a first-round matchup.

It happens again Sunday. Patriots QB Tom Brady, recently chosen as the league’s top player by the AP, will be on the sideline opposite Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who just won his second straight rushing title a year after winning MVP honors.

The third elite player is Brady’s No. 1 target. WR Randy Moss collected 1,493 receiving yards this season, courtesy of Brady, and it was the seventh time in 10 seasons that Moss has accumulated at least 1,300. Among active players, Moss ranks in the top four in touchdown catches, receiving yards and receiving yards per game.

In the regular-season finale on Dec. 29, Brady threw a 65-yard TD pass to Moss to put the Pats up for good in a 38-35 win over the New York Giants. The score not only preserved a perfect regular season, it broke two of the most high-profile single-season marks in the NFL record book.

The fourth-quarter touchdown was Brady’s 50th TD pass and Moss’ 23rd TD catch of the season, overtaking, respectively, the 49 by Peyton Manning in 2004 and 22 by Hall of Famer Jerry Rice 20 years ago.

In his MVP season, Brady also set personal highs in passing yards (4,806), completion percentage (68.9), passer rating (117.2) and TD-Int ratio (6.25), and he led his NFL peers in all four categories.

With Moss and Tomlinson on the field, Sunday’s game will match the two touchdown leaders of the regular season. And both rank near the top in career TDs among active players.

Most Touchdowns among Active Players, 2007 & Career

Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2007. . . . . . . . Player. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Career*
Randy Moss, NE. . . . . . . . . . 23. . . . . . . . . .Terrell Owens. . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD. . . . .18. . . . . . . . . .Randy Moss. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Braylon Edwards, Cle . . . . . . 16. . . . . . . . . .LaDainian Tomlinson. . . . . . . . . 132
Joseph Addai, Ind. . . . . . . . .15. . . . . . . . . .Marvin Harrison. . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Terrell Owens, Dal. . . . . . . . 15. . . . . . . . . .Shaun Alexander. . . . . . . . . . . .120

*regular season and playoffs

Tomlinson will be playing with a knee injury that forced him out of last weekend’s 28-24 win in Indianapolis. He missed the rest of the game and was diagnosed with a hyperextended left knee. Let’s see if Tomlinson will be “close to 100 percent” Sunday, as he says he will.

While Brady and Moss look to work their aerial magic once again, the Chargers may be without starting QB Philip Rivers, who is a game-time decision with a strained knee ligament suffered against the Colts.

Rivers sat out the entire fourth quarter last weekend, and in stepped backup Billy Volek. The 31-year-old veteran appeared in five games and attempted just 10 passes all season, but he led the game-winning fourth-quarter drive by completing three of four passes and pushing into the end zone from a yard out for the score.

Volek hasn’t started a game since October 23, 2005, and may become just the fourth quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to start a postseason game during a season in which he did not start a single regular-season contest.

QBs With 0 Reg-Season Starts Starting in Postseason, Since 1970

Quarterback. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Playoff Results

Roger Staubach, 1972 Dal. . . . . . .Won Div Playoff in SF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lost NFC Title Game to Wash

Gary Danielson, 1983 Det. . . . .. . Lost Div Playoff in SF

Frank Reich, 1992 Buf. . . . . . . . .Won Wild Card & Div Playoff
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lost Super Bowl to Dallas

With Frank Reich as his inspiration, Volek will try to sustain the momentum of a red-hot club that hasn’t lost in two months. He won’t be alone out there, especially if Tomlinson is productive.

If the NFL rushing leader isn't able to perform, the Chargers can turn to Michael Turner, who has made significant contributions in the postseason. It was Turner who ran for nine and four yards in the red zone during San Diego's winning drive, setting up Volek’s one-yard plunge.

Whether Rivers or Volek is under center, the Chargers defense will be the difference-maker if San Diego wins Sunday. The potent Patriots offense faces a much improved defensive unit than the one that allowed 38 points to New England during San Diego’s 1-3 start.

"This defense will challenge us more than any defense we've faced all year," said Brady.

During their eight-game winning streak, the Chargers have allowed just 13.1 points per game. The defense has recorded 26 turnovers and 26 sacks.

San Diego has consistently found ways to win of late, but how do the Chargers overcome having their starting quarterback and one of the NFL’s premier running backs at less than their best? With two of the league’s impact players lining up against the Chargers, their defense faces the ultimate test.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Two weeks between games after a long regular season. It’s just what the team trainer ordered before the playoffs begin.

That formula didn’t work for the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The two-week “rest” seemed to translate into “rust” for the Super Bowl champs and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Cowboys hadn’t played a meaningful game since Dec. 22, when they defeated Carolina to claim the top seed.

The extra week to prepare usually pays off. Since the current playoff format began in 1990, there have been 72 games involving higher-seeded teams coming off a first-round bye. The clubs with the extra week to rest and recuperate have gone 55-17.

Interestingly, it appears the bye hasn’t meant a thing the last three seasons. Each year, two of the four lower seeds have upset the better-rested opponent.

Lower Seed Beating Higher Seed in Divisional Playoff Round, 2005-07

Date. . . . . . Lower Seed. . . . . . .Higher Seed. . . . . . . . . . . . . Score
1/15/06. . . . . Panthers. . . . . . . . . .Bears. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29-21
1/15/06. . . . . Steelers. . . . . . . . . . Colts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21-18

1/13/07. . . . . Colts . . . . . . . . . . . .Ravens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15-6
1/14/07. . . . . Patriots. . . . . . . . . . Chargers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24-21

1/13/08. . . . .Chargers. . . . . . . . . . Colts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28-24
1/13/08. . . . .Giants. . . . . . . . . . . .Cowboys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21-17

After falling to the New England Patriots a year ago as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the San Diego Chargers upset the higher seed Sunday. They eliminated the defending Super Bowl champs with a thrilling 28-24 win. With both Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson on the sideline, Chargers backup QB Billy Volek led the game-winning fourth-quarter drive. Filling in for Tomlinson, RB Michael Turner gained some key yards before Volek plunged into the end zone on a 1-yard sneak.

This week, the Chargers could exact revenge for that early exit from the playoffs last year. They face the undefeated New England Patriots, who bounced them from the postseason a year ago as the AFC’s fourth seed. The Pats also whipped the Chargers in Week 2, claiming a 38-14 victory. There’s no doubt who the favorite is on Sunday, even if Rivers and Tomlinson are ready to go.

The Colts have been involved in one of these games each of the last three seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers bounced them from the playoffs two years ago, and the Colts turned the trick on the Baltimore Ravens last season before winning the Super Bowl. This year it will be a long offseason for the Colts.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 12:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Sunday marks the first time ever that long-time NFC East rivals Dallas and New York will face off in a playoff game. That’s remarkable considering the Cowboys and Giants have been in the NFL together for 48 years, and no other franchise can match them for the number of years with postseason appearances.

Most Seasons Making Playoff Appearance, All-Time

Cowboys. . . . .29
Giants. . . . . . 29
Rams. . . . . . . 27
5 teams with. .24

Even without a head-to-head meeting between the Cowboys and Giants, Sunday’s game is loaded with historical and statistical angles, especially for the Cowboys.

Dallas has lost its last five playoff games, and it’s been 11 years since the franchise has posted a postseason win -- a 40-15 victory over Minnesota in the wild-card round in December 1996.

A sixth straight loss would be a nightmarish end to a 13-3 season, the first since 1992, when the 13-3 Cowboys won the first of three Super Bowls in four years. Fans of the 2007 Cowboys expect to win a playoff game or two.

A sixth straight loss would tie an all-time NFL mark for consecutive postseason defeats, shared by a number of teams. Two of those teams have active six-game skids -- the Kansas City Chiefs (1994-2007) and Detroit Lions (1992-2000) -- and the Cowboys would join them.

Yet, history may side with the Cowboys when they host the Giants as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. After the bye week as the conference’s top dog, the Cowboys look to make it 20 consecutive divisional playoff wins for the NFC’s top team. The last No. 1 seed to fall was the 1997 49ers, who were surprised by the Minnesota Vikings 20 years ago.

In the 32 seasons that the NFL has seeded its postseason teams, only four No. 1 seeds in the NFC have gone down to defeat in their first playoff game. Dallas has figured in three of those contests.

NFC #1 Seeds to Lose Divisional Playoff, 1975-2006

No. 1 Seed. . . . . Divisional Playoff Result
1975 Vikings. . . . . .Lost 17-14 to Cowboys
1979 Cowboys. . . . Lost 21-19 to Rams
1980 Falcons. . . . . Lost 30-27 to Cowboys
1987 49ers. . . . . . .Lost 36-24 to Vikings

The Cowboys lost as the NFC’s top team in 1979, when they dropped a nail-biter to the Los Angeles Rams -- one year after falling 35-31 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XIII.

Arguably this year’s Dallas squad is the best one in more than a decade. With a win on Sunday, the Cowboys would complete a three-game season sweep of a team for the first time in franchise history. The season sweep and the five-game losing streak will be on the line.

With Terrell Owens and Jessica Simpson ready to go, the Cowboys will be looking for their 33rd playoff win in team history. That’s a league record, too, and adding to that mark requires a typical Cowboys-Giants NFC East showdown.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If you could sum up the NFL regular season in one word or phrase, “perfect season” might be the obvious choice. Another option would be “passing game.”

NFL quarterbacks completed 10,425 passes this season, marking only the second time in NFL history that they recorded 10,000 completions. The other instance was 2002, though the 2007 campaign generated the most ever.

As a result, new all-time marks were set in gross and net passing yards. NFL quarterbacks also were more accurate. As a group, they had never completed 60.0 percent of their passes over a full season, but they posted a 61.2 completion percentage in 2007.

A number of individual passing-game records were eclipsed during the final week of the regular season. A review would have to start with New England quarterback Tom Brady, who made the most impact on the league-wide passing numbers this season.

When Brady threw a 65-yard TD pass to Randy Moss in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s 38-35 win over the New York Giants, he put the Patriots in front and preserved a perfect regular season. He and Moss also broke two of the most high-profile NFL marks in the record book.

The score marked Brady’s 50th TD pass and Moss’ 23rd touchdown catch of the season.

Most TD Passes, Single Season All-Time

QB. . . . . . . . . . . . . Year/Team. . . . . . TD
Tom Brady. . . . . . . . 2007 Patriots. . . . .50
Peyton Manning. . . . 2004 Colts. . . . . . .49
Dan Marino. . . . . . . 1984 Dolphins. . . . .48
Dan Marino. . . . . . . 1986 Dolphins. . . . .44

Most TD Receptions, Single Season All-Time

Receiver. . . . . . . . .Year/Team. . . . . . .TD
Randy Moss. . . . . . . 2007 Patriots. . . . . .23
Jerry Rice. . . . . . . .1987 49ers. . . . . . . .22
Mark Clayton. . . . . .1984 Dolphins. . . . . .18
Sterling Sharpe. . . . 1994 Packers. . . . . .18

While averaging more than three TD passes a game, Brady was intercepted just eight times all season. Only two other quarterbacks have thrown for as many 30 touchdowns while posting single-digit picks, and both -- Peyton Manning (2006) and Donovan McNabb (2004) -- were good for 31, far fewer than Brady’s 50 touchdowns.

Brady’s TD-INT ratio is the all-time high among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 300 passes in a season.

Highest TD-INT Ratio, Single Season All-Time
(minimum 300 Att)

QB. . . . . . . . . . . . .Year/Team. . . . . . TD-INT. . . . . . . . . . .Ratio
Tom Brady. . . . . . . 2007 Patriots. . . . . 50-8. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.25
David Garrard. . . . . 2007 Jaguars. . . . . .18-3. . . . . . . . . . . . .6.00
Steve DeBerg. . . . . 1990 Chiefs. . . . . . .23-4. . . . . . . . . . . . .5.75
Peyton Manning. . . 2004 Colts. . . . . . .49-10. . . . . . . . . . . . .4.90

It wasn’t all Brady in 2007. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees broke the single-season completion record on Sunday, when he connected on 35 passes, but his Saints were eliminated from the playoffs with a 33-25 loss in Chicago.

Most Pass Completions, Single-Season All-Time

QB. . . . . . . . . . . . Year/Team. . . . . . Comp
Drew Brees. . . . . . . 2007 Saints. . . . . . .440
Rich Gannon. . . . . . 2002 Raiders. . . . . .418
Warren Moon. . . . . 1991 Oilers. . . . . . . 404
Drew Bledsoe. . . . . 1994 Patriots. . . . . .400

For Brady, who finished just two completions short of 400 during his MVP season, securing a number of single-season NFL records in 2007 will be a life-long memory. With the 16-0 Patriots heavily favored to win another Super Bowl, anything less than a perfect season will put a damper on Brady's big year.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 11:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

On Sunday, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady threw for 399 yards and four touchdowns against a Steelers defense that had given up just 11 TD passes in its first 12 games. The Steelers were allowing just 172 passing yards per game before they were torched by Brady in a 34-13 loss to New England.

Sunday marked the fifth time that Brady has thrown for four or more touchdowns in a game this season. He now has 45 TD passes, and he’s just four shy of tying Peyton Manning’s single-season NFL record, set in 2004.

What makes Brady’s career year even more remarkable is that he’s thrown just five interceptions. The most TD passes thrown over a full season while holding opponents to single digits in picks is 31. For the Eagles in 2004, Donovan McNabb recorded 31 TD passes and just eight interceptions. In 2006, Manning matched that TD total and allowed nine picks.

Not only is Brady likely to set a new NFL standard for TD passes in a season, he’s on course to smash the single-season mark for TD-interception ratio among quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts.

Highest Single-Season TD-Int Ratio, All-Time
(minimum 300 passing attempts)

QB. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Year. . . . . . .TD. . . .Int. . .TD/Int
Tom Brady, NE. . . . . . . . . .2007. . . . . . . 45. . . . 5. . . .9.00
Steve DeBerg, KC. . . . . . . .1990. . . . . . . 23. . . . 4. . . .5.75
Peyton Manning, Ind. . . . . 2004. . . . . . . 49. . . .10. . . .4.90
Brian Griese, Den. . . . . . . .2000. . . . . . . 19. . . . 4. . . .4.75
Steve Bartkowski, Atl. . . . . 1983. . . . . . . 22. . . . 5. . . .4.20
Vinny Testaverde, NYJ. . . . 1998. . . . . . . 29. . . . 7. . . .4.14

Brady’s passer rating this season is a league-high 123.5, and that would surpass Manning’s 121.1 in 2004 for the highest all-time. The numbers suggest Brady is closing in on the best passing season ever by an NFL quarterback.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 9:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

The Minnesota Vikings have won two straight games for the first time all season since rookie running back Adrian Peterson went down with a torn lateral collateral ligament in his right knee during a 34-0 beating in Green Bay on Nov. 11.

Still, the Vikings anxiously await the return of Peterson, who has practiced without complications all week and says he’s ready to go against the Lions on Sunday. Peterson is expected to be eased back into action and share rushing duties with Chester Taylor if, in fact, he plays.

Even with Minnesota’s victories over the Raiders and Giants the last two weeks, Peterson’s value to the team can’t be underestimated. Among running backs who have at least 30 first-down rushes, Peterson is averaging a league-high 5.9 yards per carry on first down.

Highest Rushing Average on First Down, 2007

Adrian Peterson, Min. . . . . . . . . . .5.9
Ronnie Brown, Mia. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. . . . . . . .5.4
Marion Barber, Dal. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3
Chris Brown, Ten. . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3

That kind of yardage to start a new set of downs keeps an offense moving down the field. On average, Peterson has given the Vikings roughly 60 more yards per game on the ground over the 2006 club. Minnesota ranked 16th in the league a year ago by averaging 113.8 rushing yards per game. This year the Vikings lead the NFL with a 173.3 average.

Peterson, who has collected 1,081 rushing yards and still leads the league despite missing two games, has excelled no matter what down it is. For the season, he’s averaging 6.4 yards per rush, and that would rank as the all-time single-season high among running backs with more than 150 carries in a season.

Highest Yards per Carry by a Running Back, All-Time
(minimum > 150 attempts)

Player. . . . . . . . . . Team. . . . . . . . . .Yards/Attempts. . . . . . . . . Avg
Adrian Peterson. . . .2007 Vikings. . . . . . 1,081/169. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4
Barry Sanders. . . . . 1997 Lions. . . . . . . .2,053/335. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1
O.J. Simpson. . . . . .1973 Bills. . . . . . . . .2,003/332. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0
Paul Lowe. . . . . . . .1963 Chargers. . . . . 1,010/177. . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7
Barry Sanders. . . . . 1994 Lions. . . . . . . .1,883/331. . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7

Coming off his injury, Peterson’s rushing average is likely to take a dip. Regardless, his first season with Minnesota has been a resounding success. If he approaches his early pace when he returns, his rookie year could go down as one of the best all-time by a running back.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 5:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After trouncing the Buffalo Bills last week, 56-10, the 10-0 New England Patriots are averaging 41.1 points per game. The Patriots have scored fewer than 34 points in a game only once all season, and they’ve scored at least 48 in four of their last five victories.

That 41.1-points-per-game average would be an NFL record, as the Patriots are on course to break the league’s single-season scoring mark by more than 100 points.

With six games remaining, a perfect season is within New England’s reach. Sunday night’s matchup with the Eagles may provide little drama, as Philadelphia will be without quarterback Donovan McNabb. The two stiffest challenges remaining for the Patriots may be the Steelers on Dec. 9 and the season finale against the Giants on Dec. 29.

Perfect season or not, the Patriots clearly are the team to beat in the playoffs. Although they look unbeatable, leading the league in points in the era of the 16-game schedule has rarely translated into winning the Super Bowl.

Most Regular-Season Points, Single Season All-Time
(with season result)

Team. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Result
1998 Vikings. . . . . . . . . . .556. . . . . . . . . . Lost NFC title game
1983 Redskins. . . . . . . . . .541. . . . . . . . . . Lost Super Bowl XVIII
2000 Rams. . . . . . . . . . . . 540. . . . . . . . . . Lost wild card game
1999 Rams. . . . . . . . . . . . 526. . . . . . . . . . Won Super Bowl XXXIV
2004 Colts. . . . . . . . . . . . 522. . . . . . . . . . Lost div. playoff game

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It’s been a noteworthy few weeks for field-goal kickers, and it was no different last Sunday.

Cincinnati’s Shayne Graham nailed a franchise-record seven field goals in a 21-7 win over Baltimore. He connected from 34, 19, 22, 35, 35, 21 and 33 yards, with the final four came in the fourth quarter.

Graham’s feat comes three weeks after Tennessee’s Rob Bironas set a new NFL mark with eight in a game. Bironas kicked the record-setter as time expired for a 38-36 victory over Houston on Oct. 21.

There are four others who have recorded seven field goals in a game, and Chris Boniol, kicking seven for Dallas on Nov. 18, 1996, had one of the more remarkable performances of these six kickers. Only one of his seven field goals was from less than 35 yards, as he connected from 45, 37, 42, 45, 35, 39 and 28 yards out.

Most Field Goal Yardage in a Game, Minimum 7 Field Goals, All-Time

Kicker. . . . . . . . . . . . . Date. . . . . . . . FGs. . . . . . . . . . Yds. . . . . . . . . .Yds/FG
Chris Boniol, Dal. . . . . 11/18/96. . . . . . . .7. . . . . . . . . . . 271. . . . . . . . . . . .38.7
Billy Cundiff, Dal. . . . . . 9/15/03. . . . . . . 7. . . . . . . . . . . .262. . . . . . . . . . . 37.4
Rob Bironas, Ten. . . . 10/21/07. . . . . . . 8. . . . . . . . . . . 257. . . . . . . . . . . 32.1
Shayne Graham, Cin. . 11/11/07. . . . . . . 7. . . . . . . . . . . 199. . . . . . . . . . .28.4
Rich Karlis, Min. . . . . .11/05/89. . . . . . . .7. . . . . . . . . . . 196. . . . . . . . . . . 28.0
Jim Bakken, StL. . . . . . 9/24/67. . . . . . . .7. . . . . . . . . . . .183. . . . . . . . . . . 26.1

Equally noteworthy were Billy Cundiff’s seven field goals for Dallas in 2003. He connected from 49 yards out early in the game and tied the score with a 52-yarder as time expired. His 25-yard boot in overtime secured a 35-32 victory over the New York Giants.

When Graham kicked the last of his seven field goals on Sunday, he had converted 19 straight attempts since missing his first try of the season in Week 1. That’s the longest active streak without a miss. Next on the list is Bironas, who has been successful in 15 consecutive attempts, followed by Buffalo’s Rian Lindell (11).

Another field-goal kicker, a 37-year-old veteran who has been dependable over a long career, drew little attention last Sunday. Denver’s Jason Elam kicked a 50-yard field goal in the Broncos’ 27-11 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the 37th time that he has converted from 50 or more yards. Only Morten Andersen, who has kicked 40 field goals of at least 50 yards in 25 NFL seasons, has more. Andersen, 47, has missed his only two attempts from 50+ yards since converting his last one in 2002.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 2:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Washington Redskins didn’t look like a playoff team in last week’s 33-25 home loss to division rival Philadelphia. They’re a team on the bubble, though Washington can be encouraged by the resurgence of running back Clinton Portis.

Since Washington endured a 52-7 drubbing three weeks ago, courtesy of the New England Patriots, Portis has delivered two strong 100-yard performances. He hadn’t rushed for 100 yards in 12 straight games before generating a season-high 196 in Washington’s 23-20 overtime win against the Jets two weeks ago. It was an impressive rebound after the Patriots’ beating, and Portis kept the offense moving with 36 rushes, just two shy of his career high.

Last week, Portis dashed for 137 yards on 30 carries in the loss to the Eagles. His two-week totals were 66 rushes for 333 yards.

Portis has kept the motor running full tilt late into games the last two weeks. He averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry through his 20th attempt in those two games, and an even better 5.3 yards a carry after his 20th. He hadn’t rushed more than 20 times in a game all season until the last two weeks, but posted 26 attempts after his 20th carries against the Jets and Eagles.

Those 26 attempts rank third among the 19 running backs who have at least 10 rushes after their 20th carries. His 5.3 average ranks fifth.

Highest Yards-per-Carry After 20 Rushes in a Game, 2007
(min 10 rushes after 20th carries)

Running Back. . . . . . . . . . . Att. . . . .Avg
Adrian Peterson, Min. . . . . .15. . . . . 10.7
LaMont Jordan, Oak. . . . . . 14. . . . . . 7.9
Jamal Lewis, Cle. . . . . . . . . 10. . . . . .6.4
Marshawn Lynch, Buf. . . . . .20. . . . . .5.6
Clinton Portis, Was. . . . . . . .26. . . . . .5.3

Adrian Peterson ran 46 yards for a touchdown on his 27th carry on Nov. 4, a day the rookie will never forget. He scampered 35 yards two rushes later, with less than two minutes remaining, and that left him two yards short of the single-game rushing record of 295 by Jamal Lewis, set in 2003. On his 30th and final carry, Peterson gained three yards to set the new mark of 296, and the Vikings surprised San Diego, 35-17.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 1:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson dashed for 103 yards and averaged more than five yards a carry in his NFL debut, a 24-3 win over Atlanta in Week 1. Peterson had more rushing yards than the Falcons.

The kid didn’t need an adjustment period. Peterson, drafted seventh overall out of Oklahoma last summer, reached the century mark in three of his first four games. Then he piled up 224 yards in Minnesota’s upset win over Chicago at Soldier Field. No one had ever accumulated that many yards in a game against the Bears in the team’s 88-year history. The 22-year-old rookie scored on runs of 67, 73 and 35 yards.

Flashing both power and speed, Peterson went one better Sunday by setting the all-time single-game record with 296 rushing yards in a 35-17 victory over the Chargers. It took him all of eight games to set the new standard, as he averaged 9.9 yards a carry over 30 attempts to surpass Jamal Lewis’ 295-yard performance in 2003. Peterson ran for touchdowns of 64 and 46 yards.

The performance made an impression on San Diego star LaDainian Tomlinson, last year’s rushing leader. He had a closeup view of the action.

“Impressive, very impressive,” was the assessment he shared with Don Seeholzer of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "I was sitting over there on the sideline and just to have (253) yards in the second half, that's impressive. I've never seen anything like it."

Peterson is the first rookie ever to run for at least 200 yards twice in his debut season. He already has reached the 1,000-yard plateau, and his 1,036 rushing yards put him more than 300 ahead of the rest of the NFL pack.

The first running back chosen in the 2007 draft, Peterson is a threat to break Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 yards, set in 1983. There’s a chance Peterson could be the first player to debut with a 2,000-yard season. He would have to stay both healthy and productive, and if he does, Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 yards in 1984 is at risk.

Posted by Thom Henninger at 4:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

SUPER BOWL FACTS AND FIGURES

* This is the second Super Bowl that will take place in Detroit. The first was Super Bowl XVI in Pontiac, where Joe Montana led his 49ers to a 26-21 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.
* The AFC, specifically the Patriots, has won each of the three Super Bowls played in the month of February.
* Is Matt Hasselbeck a lock to win the Super Bowl? Starting quarterbacks wearing the No. 8 are 5-0 in Super Bowls (Trent Dilfer 1-0, Steve Young 1-0, Troy Aikman 3-0), while starting quarterbacks wearing No. 7 are just 3-7.
* Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck have the longest combined last names of any Super Bowl starting quarterback duo in history (24 combined letters, bests the 17 set three different times).
* Two of the game’s best young defenders, Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu and Seattle LB Lofa Tatupu, both played at USC. This will be the 24th Super Bowl with multiple Trojan alumni. It was 30 years ago that Lynn Swann was MVP of Super Bowl X.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (14-5)

* The Steelers will be making their sixth Super Bowl appearance, their first since Super Bowl XXX. With a win the Steelers would join the Cowboys and 49ers as the only five-time Super Bowl Champions.
* The Steelers have won seven in a row, including five wins on the road.
* The Steelers have won their last eight games played against NFC opponents.
* Pittsburgh is 2-0 all-time in playoff games played indoors, with wins in Indianapolis two weeks ago and in Houston back in the 1989 Wild-Card game.
* The Steelers have averaged just 11.6 points in their last five meetings with the Seahawks, scoring fewer than 17 points in each contest.
* Pittsburgh has had seven different players score a touchdown this postseason.
* Since 1970, the Steelers are 23-1 in the playoffs when allowing less than 20 points in a game.
* Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt could become the Raiders new head coach after the game. He would become the sixth offensive or defensive coordinator under Bill Cowher to become a head coach, joining Jim Haslett, Dom Capers, Mike Mularkey, Dick LeBeau and Chan Gailey.
* Detroit native Jerome Bettis plays in his first Super Bowl. Bettis has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last five postseason games, tying Franco Harris’ team record (Harris did it two times).
* Steelers WR Hines Ward has caught seven touchdown passes in his last seven postseason games.
* Ben Roethlisberger has a chance to become the youngest QB in history to win a Super Bowl at the age of 23 years, 340 days.
* Steelers RB Willie Parker will become the fourth undrafted running back to start a Super Bowl (with Miami’s Woody Bennett in SB XIX, Denver’s Bobby Humphrey in SB XXIV and Baltimore’s Priest Holmes in SB XXXV, not counting blocking backs).
* CB Willie Williams is the lone Steelers player who was a member of the 1995 squad that lost to the Dallas Cowboys, 27-17, in Super Bowl XXX. Williams played with the Steelers from 1993-96, played the following seven seasons in Seattle (1997-2003) and re-signed with the Steelers last season.
* Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed is 10-for-11 on field-goal attempts in his last six postseason games.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (15-3)

* The Seahawks make their first Super Bowl appearance in their 30th NFL season. They look to bring the first pro sports championship to Seattle since the SuperSonics won the NBA title in 1979.
* Seattle has won four of the last five meetings with the Steelers, including the last two.
* The Seahawks have lost their last five postseason games played away from home. They have been outrushed by a 858-212 margin in those contests.
* The Seahawks have allowed just 58.6 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry over the past seven games (including playoffs).
* Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren is looking to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two different teams (he won with the Packers in 1996). Holmgren’s teams are 4-1 all-time vs. the Steelers.
* Sidelined defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes has now been an assistant coach or coordinator on six Super Bowl teams (he was on the staff of all five of the 49ers’ Super Bowls).
* Shaun Alexander is the fifth NFL rushing champion (3rd different player) to play in a Super Bowl. The previous four all won their games (Emmitt Smith 3-0, Terrell Davis 1-0). The Seahawks are 29-5 when Alexander rushes for 100+ yards in a game, including 9-0 vs. the AFC.
* Matt Hasselbeck has nine touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last seven games played away from Seattle, recording a rating of at least 94.4 in each contest.
* Hasselbeck and teammate Lofa Tatupu join their fathers, Don Hasselbeck (Raiders in XVIII) and Mosi Tatupu (Patriots in XX) as the sixth and seventh father/son combo to be on a Super Bowl team, joining Julius and Keith Adams, Frank and Frank Jr. Cornish, Tony and Anthony Dorsett, Bob and Brian Griese and Manu and Marques Tuiasosopo.
* The Seahawks are 6-0 this season when TE Jerramy Stevens catches a touchdown pass (including playoffs).
* Seattle WR Darrell Jackson has a touchdown catch in each of his last three postseason games.
* Seattle WR Joe Jurevicius will become the sixth player in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with thee different teams, joining Darrien Gordon, Rod Woodson, Bill Romanowski, Preston Pearson and Harry Swayne. Jurevicius played for the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV and for the Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII.
* Seahawks kicker Josh Brown is 11-for-12 on field-goal attempts in his last five games played indoors.

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 3:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

With last week’s win at Chicago, the Panthers have tied the longest road win streak ever in the playoffs. I guess we can put to rest any comparisons to the 1985 Bears defense as the Bears gave up a TON of first half yards and way too many passing yard to Steve Smith who had a carrier day.

Will the Panthers have enough to take it to the next level?

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 1:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Colts are the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time since the NFL went to the current six-team format in 1990. But that status hasn’t automatically led to ultimate Super Bowl glory for the conference’s top team. Can the Colts buck the trend and win the Super Bowl?

AFC No. 1 Seeds

-- Have won six of the last seven Division Playoff games.
-- Have won three of the last 11 AFC Championship games.
-- Have won two of the last 15 Super Bowls (Denver in Super Bowl 33 and New England in Super Bowl 38).

Posted by Walter Lis at 2:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The top picks for coach of the year may come down to Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy. Dungy has a great QB and running game. Smith had an amazing defense, a rookie QB, and a surprising good running game.

Being from Chicago, I am partial to Lovie---he seems to have done more with less talent, and he DID beat the Pack...TWICE.

Your thoughts?

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 4:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well the media seems to love to talk about Brett Favre and his future. This season he has lead the Pack to only 3 wins and has thrown 19 TDs and 28 INTs. Does that mean he should hang it up? He is legend in the sport and will always be considered one of the best NFL quarterbacks in history.

Will he come back to avenge this sad season, or realize his age and walk away from Green Bay?

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 1:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Based on these facts, the starting lineup of the Colts should get LOTS of 4th quarter rest.

Indianapolis (6-0) at Houston (0-5)
* The Colts have won all six meetings by a combined score of 164-72. The Colts have outscored the Texans 41-0 in the first quarter of those contests.
* The Colts have won 13 of their last 15 division games, including the last five. The last time the Colts won six straight division games was back in 1976-77.
* Indy has outscored its opponents 71-12 in the second and third quarters combined this season.
* Colts’ RB Edgerrin James has averaged 116.3 rushing yards in his last four games vs. Houston, including three 100+ yard performances.
* Indy WR Reggie Wayne has five touchdown receptions in six career games vs. the Texans.
* Colts’ DE Robert Mathis leads the league with seven sacks, including at least one in each game this season.
* Houston is 0-5 and its next five opponents are a combined 21-7, including two games against the 6-0 Colts.
* The Texans have lost their last eight games when allowing their opponents to gain at least 300 yards of offense.
* Houston RB Domanick Davis is averaging 155.8 scrimmage yards with seven touchdowns in four career games vs. the Colts. Davis has rushed for at least 98 yards in each contest.
* Houston QB David Carr has thrown just one interception in his last four games.

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 12:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

N.Y. Giants (3-1) at Dallas (3-2)
* The Giants swept the Cowboys last season, and have won seven of the last 10 meetings overall. The Giants look to win back-to-back meetings in Dallas for the first time since winning three straight from 1988-90.
* New York is just 3-13 after the bye week since 1990, tied for the worst such record in the league (w/Seattle).
* New York has lost its last five games played outside Giants Stadium, by a combined score of 153-80.
* New York QB Eli Manning has seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three starts.

Posted by Jacob Nuesser at 2:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Daunte Culpepper has been incredible following a bye throughout his career, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and throwing for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He'll face a Chicago defense this Sunday that could be susceptible to more big plays.

Active QBs, Highest Career Passer Rating Following Bye Week
(minimum 3 GS)

Daunte Culpepper, Min 116.7
Peyton Manning, Ind 105.2
Trent Green, KC 102.1
Marc Bulger, StL 96.8
Kurt Warner, Ari 96.7

Posted by Walter Lis at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger may be two of the best quarterbacks in NFL history before reaching age 30. Both have enjoyed two of the longest regular-season winning streaks since the AFL-NFL merger.

Most Consecutive Reg-Season Wins as Starting QB – Since ’70

Jim McMahon, 1984-1987 Chi 22
Tom Brady, 2003-2004 NE 18
Ben Roethlisberger, 2004-2005 Pit 15
Dan Marino, 1983-1984 Mia 14
Joe Montana, 1989-1990 SF 14

Posted by Walter Lis at 2:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)