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Thrashers, Canadiens Losing Grip of Playoff Berths

No Eastern Conference club has more than 23 games remaining, and each and every one is critical to the teams battling for the final four playoff spots in the conference. Currently three teams -- the Islanders, Canadiens and Maple Leafs -- are tied in points for the eighth and final seed in the East. Only eight points separate the East’s fifth seed, Ottawa with 71 points, and the 11th-seeded Rangers, with 63 points.

The teams with everything going their way right now? Ottawa, Toronto and Tampa Bay have won seven of their last 10 games.

The Senators have won four straight and have gone 17-4-2 since late December. They look well positioned to secure a playoff berth, especially if they fare well in home-and-home series against Buffalo and Carolina to close out the month. The Maple Leafs have surged back into the playoff picture with a 9-2-2 run over the last five weeks. In the next week, they will play on the road against the two teams that are tied with them in points for the final Eastern Conference spot. They also face Buffalo, New Jersey and Ottawa twice during the first 10 days of March, so this stretch of the season is critical. The Lightning have used a 7-2-1 surge to move into a tie atop the Southeast Division with the Atlanta Thrashers. If the Lightning continue to play well, they will make the playoffs even if they fail to overtake Atlanta.

The Thrashers are one of the slumping contenders, allowing the Lightning to close in on them while losing their last four games and starting February 1-6-1. The Thrashers currently are seeded sixth, but could fall from the top eight if they don’t turn things around. The next two weeks include three games against division rival Carolina and single matchups with Ottawa and first-place challenger Tampa Bay.

The Canadiens also are at risk to slip out of the playoff chase. They won in Columbus Sunday to end a six-game losing streak, but in the next week alone, they face Nashville, the Rangers and the two clubs tied with them for the East’s final berth: the Islanders and Maple Leafs. This could be the week that determines Montreal's fate.

It doesn’t help Montreal that the Islanders also are on the rise. The Isles are 6-2-2 over their last 10 games, and they have won three of the last four -- including a much-needed shootout victory over Toronto last week. Over the next two weeks, they also face both clubs that share the eighth seed with them, as well as the Rangers twice.

The defending champion Hurricanes hold down the seventh spot in the East after winning three of four on the road recently, including a pair of victories in Montreal. The next two weeks will be key for the Hurricanes, as they square off against slumping Atlanta three times, Ottawa twice and Pittsburgh once.

The Rangers have won four of their last five contests after enduring a 7-14-1 slide. They trail the three teams tied for the eighth spot by three points, and their climb must continue despite a home-and-home series with division-leading New Jersey awaiting them. The Rangers also have home-and-home matchups with the Penguins and Isles in early March.

Atlanta looks most at risk of falling out of the playoff picture. That would open the door to both Toronto and the Islanders if Montreal continues to skid. Even Montreal could hang on or the Rangers could slip in, but it might require a crash-and-burn by the Stanley Cup champions for either to play postseason hockey in April.

Comments

Not to knock on the article, as you've provided good reading material all year. I think this is the wrong blog for it though. I enjoyed this blog last year because it focussed exclusively on stats, broken records, streaks and so on. There are lots of opinion articles out there. Not to say you're not using stats as the focus for your points, but I'd prefer to see this go back to simple highlights of interesting stats of players and teams.

Again not knocking the writing or points, just think they should be in a personal blog on here, while the stats blog should be stats exclusive. You update more than any of the other bloggers so I certainly dont want to give an ungrateful message.

Cheers,

Joel

Oh and for the record I agree with the point you've made on what teams are heading in which direction. I think montreal will drop out of the playoffs soon. The interesting thing will be to see how much the inconsistent rangers can climb, how much atlanta can turn things around and whether or not the islanders consistency can nab them a playoff spot over the two aforementioned inconsistent but more higher powered teams. Should be a good race, which is lucky since the west seems to have almost locked up playoff spots already.

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